Thou Shalt Not Keep (and Erik too)

For the record, here is the list of players who cannot be kept next season: Tim Lincecum, Ryan Braun, C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Aaron Harang, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Jonathan Papelbon, Ted Lily, Vladimir Guerrero, Prince Fielder and Hanley Ramirez. Also, individuals who are drafted in the first two rounds this season and individuals who are not drafted at all are not eligible to be kept. Bet you $10 Andrew wishes he had the first pick in the draft next season and not this season. Sucks to be you Andrew, sucks to be you.

Now on to Erik’s keeper review.

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Keeper Review – The Zou

Chosen Keepers
Tim Lincecum
Ryan Braun
Cole Hamels

Draft Picks Lost
21st, 27th and 28th round picks

Last Year Fantasy Point Total (position rank)
Lincecum – 317 (33)
Braun – 334 (10)
Hamels – 547 (12)

Players Not Kept of Note
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Grady Sizemore
Hunter Pence
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Yovani Gallardo
Phil Hughes
Ben Sheets
Fausto Carmona
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz
James Shields

Thoughts:
As it relates to draft picks lost, Erik did not take much risk losing picks in twenty’s. How these players fair will be interesting. Only Hamels is eligible to be kept next season so it will also be interesting to see what Erik does with them at the trade deadline.

Lincecum’s violent throwing motion makes him an obvious candidate for arm problems in the future. How fast that future arrives is uncertain. If he does remain healthy, he can count on a lot of strikeouts. His 150 strikeouts in 146 1/3 innings were quite impressive for a rookie. Lincecum’s 4.00 ERA is inflated due to a two start stretch where he gave up 13 runs in less than eight innings of work. He ended following that up with back-to-back seven inning shutouts, totally 20 strikeouts. The Giants are not projected to be a very good team this season so Erik cannot count on too many victories, but that should not keep the strikeouts from coming. (It should be noted Lincecum was drafted nine picks after Luke Hochevar.)

Ryan Braun had a historical rookie campaign, hitting 34 home runs, driving in 97 and batting .324 in only 451 at-bats. Hitting in front of Prince Fielder made his transition to the big leagues smooth and he should reap the same benefits of hitting in front of Fielder this season. There are concerns about Braun. Ryan struck out once every four at-bats and walked only 29 times. Braun hit more home runs (34) than he did doubles (26). The lack of double is a little concerning. Of the 26 players who hit at least thirty home runs, only Ken Griffey Jr., Lance Berkman and Jim Thome had fewer doubles. This lack of base running ability could become costly if Braun sees a dip in his home run power.

Only three players in the history of baseball had at least 30 home runs, 95 RBI, a .320 batting average and 1.000 OPS in there first season in the big leagues: Albert Pujols (2001), Ted Williams (1939) and Ryan Braun (2007). Both Williams and Pujols had significantly more at-bats than Braun. Williams saw a reduction in home run power his next season. Pujols did not. Who Braun decides to be is yet to be seen.

Cole Hamels, who is entering his third big league season, has seen great success striking out batters. He has, however, had issues with injuries. A healthy Hamels combined with a healthy Lincecum and Braun should be very formidable.