Erik: Lack of Dominate Pitcher Hurts Tony

Today I will analyze the keeper situation for the San Antonio Saints … even if I am unsure as to whether Tony is actually living in San Antonio or not.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted
John Lackey – 3
Adam Wainwright – 6
Brian McCann – 7
Gil Meche – 11
Dustin Pedroia – 12
Kevin Youkilis – 12
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15
Colby Rasmus – 23
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
David Murphy – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted
Kyle Lohse – Undrafted

Two things jump out to me when I look at Tony’s list of potential keepers:

1. I think his ultimate goal is to fill his roster with completely with Cardinals and Red Sox.
2. Our league is full of morons. First, I write about Andrew keeping the undrafted C.C. Sabathia and now I see Volquez and Ludwick were undrafted. Now I understand that these guys were under the radar coming into last year, but for nobody to take a flyer on them in the late rounds … I think that puts us on par with Johnny Knoxville on an IQ test.

Looking at the Saints’ list of possibilities, nobody really jumps out at me as an absolute must-keep. However, Volquez and Pedroia are pretty close. It will be interesting to see how Volquez bounces back from a sub-par second half and a career high in innings thrown. As for Pedroia, I find it hard to believe that he will duplicate his 2008 MVP season, but he will still put up great numbers for a second basemen and 12th round pick.

Once you get by Volquez and Pedroia, Tony will have some very difficult decisions. Luckily for me, I can refer back to his ultimate goal and get a good idea who he will keep.

Wainwright will be looking to make the jump into the league’s elite pitchers in 2009, but could be a little pricey at a 6th round pick give his recent injury struggles. So, with that Cardinal out of the picture, I think Tony will turn to his 23rd-rounder from last year Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is a great prospect and a great value at the 23rd round, but questions still remain about whether he will break camp with the big league club next year.

With one Cardinal already in the outfield, Tony will look to add a second with Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick had an amazing 2008 season, coming out of nowhere to hit almost .300 with 37 homers. With his undrafted status, Tony adds another solid Cardinal to his team.

With his last keeper spot, I expect Tony to stay true to his rule and choose between two BoSox, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury. Youkilis is a great hitter and good value in the 12th round, but Ellsbury has a higher upside, was a 15th rounder, and should get even more playing time this year with the cereal man out of the picture.

Expected Keepers for the Saints
Dustin Pedroia – 12th
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15th
Colby Rasmus – 23rd
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 2 of 2: Tony is in solid position to improve on his struggles from 2008 with this solid group of keepers. If Pedroia and Ludwick are able to duplicate their ’08 campaigns (which I think is a little unlikely in both cases) and Ellsbury and Rasums follow their projected path, Tony could have one of the most dangerous line-ups in 2009 and not use anything higher than a 12th round pick on his keepers. The only thing that pushes Tony below Andrew is the lack of a dominant pitcher. Volquez and Wainwright have the possibilities, but I am not ready to say either is in the elite category yet. Of course, there is always the possibility that Tony throws me for a loop by keeping Wainwright, Rasmus, Ludwick. Lohse and Carpenter.

Erik: Andrew is Number 1 (of 1)!

With the winter meetings having come to a close, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the keeper situations facing each of the ten teams The League.

With that wonderful introduction in place, we will now take a look at the reigning champions, Hancocks Halos.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

Brian Roberts – 3

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 4

Francisco Rodriguez – 6

Conor Jackson – 9

Justin Verlander – 11

Ubaldo Jimenez – 14

Rick Ankiel – 21

Stephen Drew – 24

Carlos Delgado – 28

John Danks – Undrafted

Russell Martin – Undrafted

Carlos Gomez – Undrafted

CC Sabathia – Undrafted

The most talked about baseball player over the last six months headlines the potential keepers for Andrew. Sabathia was dominant in the second half last year and along with Johan Santana helped carry the Halos to The League Title. The big question here is not whether Andrew will keep Sabathia but rather how will Sabathia fare with the Yankees. He moves into a power-heavy division with the burden of a $161 million contract (think of all the Hostess snacks he could/will buy with that much money) on his shoulders having just thrown well over 400+ innings in the last two years combined. I think he will be a steal for Andrew given his undrafted status, but I don’t expect him to equal the second half he put together last year at any time in the 2009 season.

Assuming Sabathis is kept, that would leave four slots open for Andrew with many viable options, but no sure things. Roberts, Matsuzaka, Rodriguez and Jackson would all be solid values if kept, but probably are not the great values Andrew will be looking for with his keeper spots.

Next on the list as far as intrigue goes is Justin Verlander. Verlander struggled greatly last season as his control and velocity took a gigantic step back from their 2007 form. Having said that, Verlander has the highest upside of any of the players remaining for Andrew, but his disastrous 2008 season would make keeping Verlander a big risk at the cost of a 10^th-round pick (this would be Verlander’s second season to be kept). Right behind Verlander in terms of upside is Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has an electric arm and showed signs of putting things together last year for the Rockies. He offers Andrew much of the same upside of Verlander will a little less risk and could be a guy to keep an eye on.

Carlos Delgado is an interesting situation as well. Delgado stumbled out of the gates last year but caught fire in the middle of the year and turned out to be one of the top values from last year’s draft. Delgado is obviously getting up there in age and it will be interesting to see if Andrew thinks Delgado can keep it together for at least one more season. The big plus for the Halos is that if they keep Delgado and he bombs next year, they will have only wasted a 28^th round pick.

Russell Martin is another of the undrafted players I expect Andrew to keep (how could Sabathia and Martin go undrafted two years ago – I keep checking the draft results expecting that I have just overlooked Martin, but I can’t find him anywhere). Martin is a solid player at a weak position and would be a great value for Andrew.

Expected Keepers for Hancock Halos

Jimenez – 14th

Delgado – 28th

Sabathia – Undrafted

Danks – Undrafted

Martin - Undrafted

Ranking of possible keepers: 1 of 1. Andrew has a solid group of keeper possibilities headlined by the undrafted trio of Sabathia, Danks and Martin. The group as a whole lacks a certain amount of upside, but provides solid value for the reigning champs. I think this group will put Andrew in position to field a very solid team this year but he will probably be at a slight disadvantage to a few teams heading into the draft.

Baseball Begins!!! (In four months...)

Hey, it’s the winter meetings and you know what that means… nothing. But, hey, why not talk a little baseball to remind us that the next losing season for the Royals begins in about four months. Yipee.

Mostly, I start this blog up again for three reasons: First, Erik says he has a series he wants to unleash on you so you should check back often to see what he says about you; Second, I’m writing for a Royals blog called “The Royal Treatment” so you should check that out every once in a while (I’m BlownSave…what are the odds?); Finally, I wanted to remind you of some of the changes for next season – hopefully there will be no more major changes for the life of this league.

Roster Changes

Roster size = 25 (Down from 28)

Designated Hitter = eliminated
Utility Player = added
Starting Pitching Spots = 3 (down from 5)
General Pitching Spot = 1 (up from 0)
Relief Pitching Spots = 3 (up from 2)

Notes:
The Utility player addition comes by popular demand... The amount of bench spots has been reduced by three in order to limit stockpiling of players and to maintain the value of the free agent market… The total amount of starters (hitters and pitchers) has not changed and there is no limit to how many times a player can be started or how many innings a player can play… The reduction of the two starting pitcher spot is to make room for the added relief pitcher position and general pitching position… The general pitching spot can be filled by either a starter or reliever.

Point Changes

Hitting: All hitting statistics will remain the same.

Pitching:

H = -0.5 (adjusted from –1)
BB = -0.5 (adjusted from –1.5)
K = 2 (adjusted from 3)
W = 5 (adjusted from 10)
L = -5 (adjusted from –10)
QS = 10 (adjusted from 5)

Added Statistic: Holds = 2.5

Notes:
I have heard minimal complaints about the hitting formula so I will no changes will be made… The changes to W, L, QS are being made as to better reflect a pitcher’s performance and not his team’s… I had no idea how to quantify a “hold” in fantasy terms so I just made it half a save – feel free to send suggestions on holds.

Keeper Rules for This Offseason

Total Keepers Allowed: 5
Trade Deadline with 2008 Rosters: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Keeper Deadline: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Proposed Draft Date: Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 3 p.m.
- Players drafted in the first or second round in 2008 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- View the previous post for players who are ineligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players count as a 15th round pick (Multiple undrafted players will count as a 15th, 14th, etc. round draft pick).

A correction to the list of ineligible keepers:

Jonathan Papelbon is available to be kept. That was my error.

Rule/Point/Keeper Changes

The following are the proposed changes for next season:

Roster Changes

Roster size = 25 (Down from 28)

Designated Hitter = eliminated
Utility Player = added
Starting Pitching Spots = 3 (down from 5)
General Pitching Spot = 1 (up from 0)
Relief Pitching Spots = 3 (up from 2)

Notes:
The Utility player addition comes by popular demand... The amount of bench spots has been reduced by three in order to limit stockpiling of players and to maintain the value of the free agent market… The total amount of starters (hitters and pitchers) has not changed and there is no limit to how many times a player can be started or how many innings a player can play… The reduction of the two starting pitcher spot is to make room for the added relief pitcher position and general pitching position… The general pitching spot can be filled by either a starter or reliever.

Point Changes

Hitting: All hitting statistics will remain the same.

Pitching:

H = -0.5 (adjusted from –1)
BB = -0.5 (adjusted from –1.5)
K = 2 (adjusted from 3)
W = 5 (adjusted from 10)
L = -5 (adjusted from –10)
QS = 10 (adjusted from 5)

Added Statistic: Holds = 2.5

Notes:
I have heard minimal complaints about the hitting formula so I will no changes will be made… The changes to W, L, QS are being made as to better reflect a pitcher’s performance and not his team’s… I had no idea how to quantify a “hold” in fantasy terms so I just made it half a save – feel free to send suggestions on holds.

Keeper Rules for This Offseason

Total Keepers Allowed: 5
Trade Deadline with 2008 Rosters: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Keeper Deadline: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Proposed Draft Date: Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 3 p.m.
- Players drafted in the first or second round in 2008 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- Players who were kept coming into this season who were drafted in the first or second round of 2007 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players from 2008 ARE eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players from 2007 who were kept coming into this season ARE eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players count as a 15th round pick
- Multiple undrafted players will count as a 15th, 14th, etc. round draft pick.

Here is the list of UNELIGIBLE keepers:
Vladimir Guerrero
Hanley Ramirez
Johan Santana
Jose Reyes
Albert Pujols
Chase Utley
Alex Rodriguez
Brandon Webb
Grady Sizemore
David Wright
Carl Crawford
Brandon Phillips
Ryan Howard
Ichiro Suzuki
Carlos Beltran
B.J. Upton
David Ortiz
Mark Teixeira
Carlos Zambrano
Carlos Lee
Justin Morneau
Troy Tulowitzki

Draft rounds three through twenty-eight:
(Note: The following players are eligible to be kept after this season is finished. Additional keeper rules are noted at the end of the post.)

Round Three
Roy Oswalt
Alex Rios
Victor Martinez
Nick Markakis
Miguel Cabrera (two years left of keeper eligibility)
John Lackey
Aramis Ramirez
Brian Roberts
Felix Hernandez
Travis Hafner (two years left of keeper eligibility)

Round Four
John Smoltz
Derrek Lee
Manny Ramirez
Garret Atkins (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Fausto Carmona
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Joe Mauer (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Derek Jeter
Jake Peavy (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Lance Berkman

Round Five
Yovani Gallardo
Alfonso Soriano
Tim Hudson
J.J. Putz
Carlos Guillen
Chipper Jones
Jimmy Rollins (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Roy Halladay

Round Six
Hunter Pence
Jeff Francis
Michael Young
Matt Holliday (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Hideki Matsui
Adam Wainwright
Chris Young
Francisco Rodriguez
Eric Byrnes
Alex Gordon

Round Seven
Matt Kemp
Robinson Cano
Mike Lowell
Miguel Tejada
Brad Penny
Brian McCann
Takashi Saito
Carlos Pena
Chone Figgins
Joe Nathan

Round Eight
Chad Billingsley
Khalil Greene
Aaron Rowand
Javier Vazquez
Ben Sheets
James Shields
Brett Meyers
Brad Hawpe
Matt Cain
Ian Kinsler

Round Nine
Ryan Zimmerman
Chien-Ming Wang
Conner Jackson
Torii Hunter
Francisco Liriano
Orlando Hudson
Chris B. Young
Mariano Rivera
Placido Polanco
Adrian Gonzalez

Round Ten
A.J. Burnett
Jose Valverde
Jorge Posada
Pat Burrell
Johnny Damon
Billy Wagner
Kelvim Escobar
Gary Sheffield
Jim Thome
Adrian Beltre

Round Eleven
Jeremy Bonderman
Bobby Jenks
Jered Weaver
Pedro Martinez
Francisco Cordero
Gil Meche
John Maine
Justin Verlander (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Geovany Soto
Kenji Johjima

Round Twelve
Howie Kendrick
Brad Lidge
Billy Butler
Dustin Pedroia
James Loney
Kevin Youkilis
Dan Haren (two years left of eligibility)
Rich Hill
Phil Hughes
Joe Blanton

Round Thirteen
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Varitek
Kosuke Fukudome
Dustin McGowan
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jason Isringhausen
Cory Hart
Todd Helton
Clay Buchholtz
Zack Greinke

Round Fourteen
Oliver Perez
Dontrelle Willis
Mark Buehrle
Huston Street
Rafael Soriano
Al Reyes
Derrek Lowe
Ian Snell
Ubaldo Jimenez
Greg Maddux

Round Fifteen
Rich Harden
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Kazmir (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Jeremy Guthrie
Brian Bannister
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jeff Francoeur
Jon Lester
Randy Johnson
Joe Borowski

Round Sixteen
Mark Prior
Juan Pierre
Shane Victorino
Josh Beckett (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Hiroki Kuroda
Jacque Jones
Micah Owings
Vernon Wells
Homer Bailey
Andy Pettitte

Round Seventeen
Nick Swisher
Chad Cordero
Tom Gorzelanny
Coco Crisp
Magglio Ordonez (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Edgar Renteria
Dan Uggla
Bronson Arroyo
Joakim Soria
Josh Hamilton

Round Eighteen
Jay Bruce
Ty Wiggington
J.J. Hardy
Dave Bush
Paul Konerko
Jason Bay
Michael Bourn
Shaun Marcum
Evan Longoria
Andruw Jones

Round Nineteen
Joba Chamberlain
Erik Bedard (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Jeremy Accardo
Michael Cuddyer
Matt Capps
Jorge Cantu
Delmon Young
Manny Corpas
Matt Garza
J.D. Drew

Round Twenty
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Jeff Kent
Melky Cabrera
Barry Zito
Kevin Gregg
Frank Thomas
Todd Jones
Kelly Johnson
Kerry Wood
David DeJesus

Round Twenty-one
Cole Hamels (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Johnny Cueto
Yorvit Torrealba
Rick Ankiel
Curtis Granderson (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Chris Duncan
Jack Cust
Carlos Marmol
Rickie Weeks
Chad Tracy

Round Twenty-two
Rafael Furcal
Jason Giambi
Aaron Cook
Jake Westbrook
Tony Pena
Nate Robinson
Kyle Kendrick
Josh Fields
Jermaine Dye
Kevin Correia

Round Twenty-three
Cameron Maybin
Adam Miller
Freddy Sanchez
Jhonny Peralta
Franklin Morales
Colby Rasmus
Bengie Molina
Bartolo Colon
Andrew Miller
Chris Sampson

Round Twenty-four
Joey Votto
Chuck James
Scott Baker
Brandon Lyon
Ervin Santana
Hideki Okajima
Tom Glavine
Steven Drew
J.R. Towels
Adam Jones

Round Twenty-five
David Price
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Church
Ramon Hernandez
Kenny Rogers
Braden Looper
Josh Willingham
Daniel Cabrera
Tim Wakefield
Jhonny Estrada

Round Twenty-six
Clayton Kershaw
Yunel Escobar
Hank Blaylock
Pat Neshek
Lastings Millage
Troy Glaus
Aubrey Huff
Jon Garland
Brandon Wood
Jeff Suppan

Round Twenty-seven
Andre Either
Cliff Lee
Paul Byrd
Gustavo Chachin
Ryan Garko
Jair Jurrjens
Willie Blumquest

Round Twenty-eight
Carlos Delgado
Shawn Hill
Mark Mulder

A Really Overdue Blog Post

Note to self: Working with SPED kids does not increase blog productivity.

Additional Note to Self: Not having the internet seriously hinders posting on blogs.

One More Note to Self: Not having a computer makes having the internet difficult.

Next topic!

***

This season is only eight days away from being over. THANK GOD!!! What a disastrous season it has been. Any time Andrew has the number one seeded team and 20 wins should tip people off that something extremely foul is afoot. Seriously, 20 wins for Andrew? Really??? And what the hell is Joel doing in the playoffs? Andrew and Joel are living proof that anybody, ANYBODY, can win a fantasy league.

Anyway, we’ll do this whole season in review thing later. For now, there are still those 8 days we have to mercilessly live through.

WHAT IS BECOMING THE OBVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Baring something insane happening, Andrew and Erik are going to be playing for the league title. I hope they both lose.

Each team is built on pitching and has multiple guys with over 400 points.

Andrew: CC Sabathia, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Johan Santana

Erik: Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Rich Harden, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett

While Erik clearly has a pitching edge he almost losses all of it because of his poor lineup. Erik has four hitters who have yet to hit 400 points on the season and only three who have passed the 600-point plateau. In comparison, Andrew has just one starting hitter who has yet to surpass 600 points. To add to Erik’s problems, it is likely Gary Sheffield will be suspended for a few games this week (baring an appeal) and will leave Erik without a legit DH for championship week.

There will be more on this Monday.

CHECK THE BLOG SUNDAY

I have already written and scheduled for a post to show up Sunday that will detail Keeper rules and point changes for next season. Please get back to me after you read the post with your thoughts and comments.

About those point changes...

When I did the goofy point changes for this week, I put notes on each one thinking that everyone could read them. Well, apparently, you guys cannot do that for some reason, so I’m going to copy and past those here and give you a chance to read them.

Smurfs vs. Roid Needles

Smurfs - Plus 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

CRN - Added 220 Home Run Derby points to CRN from the production of Justin Morneau (22). Subtracted 220 points for stealing away the title from Josh Hamilton. Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

Rasmus’ vs. Boom Goes the Dynamite

Rasmus’ - Added 10 points for not have Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtracted 10 points for having Ryan Ludwick on your roster.

BGtD - Added 60 Home Run Derby points to BGD for the performance of Dan Uggla (6). Subtract 160 for Dan Uggla's performance in the All-Star game. Subtract 10 points for having Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtract 10 points for having a terrible fantasy name.

Hancock’s Halos vs. The Zou

Halos – Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtracted 60 points for being a douche and hogging all the luck this season.

The Zou - Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

Rolorado Cockies vs. KC

Cockies – Added 60 Home Run Derby points to RC from the performance of Grady Sizemore (6). Subtracted 1130 points for being a Cardinals fan and thus being related in some fashion to Joe Buck.

KC - Added 140 Home Run Derby points to KC from the performance of Lance Berkman (14). Subtracted 1140 points for beating BSI by .5 points last week.

Inoculators vs. Phantom Menaces

Inoculators – Added 520 Home Run Derby points to BSI from the performance of Josh Hamilton (35), Ryan Braun (14) and Evan Longoria (3). Added 435.5 points in tribute to last week's hard luck loss. Added 45.5 points for writing worthless blog posts.

Phantom Menaces - Added 50 Home Run Derby points to PM from the performance of Chase Utley (5).

SUB-300 Syndrome and How It Has Affected the First Half

There have been 41 times this season where a team’s opponent has scored under 299 points. The data suggests some of the reasons why certain teams are winning frequently, while others have not. Here is the data followed by some thoughts.

When Opponent Scores Under 299 Points

BSI: 2 times (1-1) – W vs. KS, L vs. Zou
KS: 5X (3-2) – W vs. BSI and KC twice, L vs. PM and BGD
CRN: 5X (4-1) – W vs. Zou, KS, BSI, BGD – L vs. PM
KC: 2X (0-2) – L vs. HH and KS
HH: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, RC, CRN, KS, BGD, RC, SPR
SPR: 2X (2-0) – W vs. RC, KS
PM: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, CRN, KS, CRN, SPR, BGD, KS
BGD: 3X (3-0) – W vs. HH, KS, RC
RC: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BGD, CRN and L vs. HH
ZOU: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BSI, KS and L vs. CRN

When Scoring Under 299 Points

BSI: 3X – L vs. Zou, Smurfs, CRN
HH: 3X – W vs. KC and RC with L vs. BGD
KS: 11X – Check season schedule
CRN: 5X – W vs. Zou with L vs. PM twice, HH, RC
KC: 4X – L vs. PM, HH, KS twice
SPR: 2X – L vs. PM and HH
PM: 2X – W vs. CRN and KS (Note: CRN and KS two lowest scoring teams)
BGD: 5X – W vs. KS and L vs. RC, CRN, HH, PM
RC: 4X – L vs. SPR, HH twice, BGD
ZOU: 2X – W vs. BSI and L vs. CRN

Let’s focus on the Halos for a moment. The Halos are 7-0 against teams that scored under 299 points against him, but there is another stat that is telling as well. The median average of points scored per game for the league is 336. Three times this season the Halos' opponent has scored between 300 and 325 points, resulting in a 2-1 record for the Halos. This means in two-thirds of the Halos matchups this season, his opponent has scored at least 10 points below league average. Ten times! The Halos have had their opponent score over 350 points four times this season and is 2-2 in those matchups.

Now, Andrew would probably argue that he has scored the most points in the league (by far) so who cares? This is an excellent point, but my purpose is not to say Andrew’s team sucks (because it doesn't). No, the point is luck is a big factor in fantasy. For instance, if Andrew’s opponents were averaging 358 points a game (like what Inoculators opponents are averaging) he would be 9-6. If Inoculators opponents were averaging 288 points (like what Halos opponents are averaging) Ben would be 14-1.

Of course, no one is posting “average points against” every week so this is not to say the Inoculators would be actually be 14-1 or the Halos would be 9-6. There are obviously other factors to consider. The point, again, is the impact of luck in fantasy.

A deeper analysis of the Inoculators is forthcoming (I know you could care less, but I just freaking lost a matchup by .5 points so deal with it!), but I thought I’d post this first.

Links and Stuff

A good video to watch this morning - and every morning - on Deadspin. Very funny, yet, informative. Awful Announcing does the video and is also a good site to check out. As is Fire Joe Morgan, which recently destroyed a Kansas City Star columnist.

Round-Up and Review

Rant coming later. I hate my life.

Sunday Round-Up

KC Hitters
Jermaine Dye = 19 FP
Ian Kinsler = 15 FP
Orlando Cabrera = 11 FP
Lance Berkman = 11 FP
James Loney = 10 FP

Other Hitters
Brian McCann: 3-3, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3 runs, BB = 20 FP
Matt Kemp: 3-4, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 runs, BB, K, 2 SB = 19 FP
Troy Glaus: 3-4, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 runs, BB = 18 FP

Halos Pitchers
CC Sabathia = 38 FP
Justin Verlander = 36.5 FP
Daisuke Matsuzaka = 32.5 FP

Zou Pitchers
Chad Billingsley = 56.5 FP
Tim Lincecum = 42.5 FP
Cole Hamels = 21 FP

Inoculators Pitchers
Mike Pelfrey = 35 FP
Brandon Webb = 19.5 FP

Week in Review

Halos Monster Sunday Adds to Point Lead

The Halos posted 89.5 points or higher in a day four times en route to a 556.5-248 victory over the Rasmus’. It looked for a while that the Phantom Menaces would be a able to chip away at the total point leader’s cushion after his won 505.5 point performance, but, because Andrew sold his soul to the devil three months ago and pulled a 122 point day out of his butt Sunday, the Halos prevailed. Nonetheless, Andrew now boasts a 5811.5-5489.5 lead over Kimball and appears to be smooth sailing towards a division title and the number one seed.

Six Teams Crack 5000

Four teams cracked 5000 points to add to the two teams who already surpassed the milestone. The Halos lead the way with 5811.5, followed by the Phantom Menaces (5489.5), Zou (5423.5), Inoculators (5405), Cockies (5053) and Rasmus’ (5002.5). Please note that only 84.5 points separate the 6-9 Inoculators from the 12-3 Phantom Menaces, only furthering the speculation that Fantasy Baseball is gay.

Dynamite Upset Cockies; Zou Upended by ‘Roid Needles

A 117 point day by the Zou was only good enough to narrow his losing margin to 50 in a 412.5-362.5 loss to the ‘Roid Needles. CRN had two huge weeks from Hiroki Kuroda and Ervin Santana to pull off the minor upset.

The far from minor upset came when the now 5-10 Dynamite defeated the Cockies soundly, 412-257.5. The Dynamite got 59.5 points from the arm of known fantasy stud Ricky Nolasco (!) and 218 points from his offense to pull off the upset.

In related news, the Cockies have contacted the ‘Roid Needles to let him know that, since he’s basically out of the playoff race, he is open for trades. The Cockies have a one game lead over the ‘Roid Needles for the final playoff spot with nine weeks remaining.

Well, that’s all the news this week – besides that whole “Ben losing by .5 points” thing… #$%@#!!!!!!

Playing for Keeps: New Top 10 BA Prospects

Heading into the second half of the season, some teams will be looking to add players for a late season push and to make a playoff run. Other teams will being trying to figure out how to reconfigure their roster in order to add more keeper prospects. Which ever mode you’ll be in, you’ll want to know these 10 names – the new top 10 prospect list Baseball America posted this past week. Here are those 10 players and their possible impact this season and beyond.

1. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, 20, Dodgers (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: ZOU
Career Numbers: 208.1 IP, 268 K, 2.64 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Season Numbers: 49.1 IP, 51 K, 2.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Quick Shot: Kershaw dominated as a 19-year-old 163 strikeouts in 122 innings pitched last season – mostly in the Midwest League (A). He has been primarily in the Southern League (AA) this season, but has made eight starts in the big leagues this season (38.2 IP, 33 K, 4.42 ERA, 1.62 WHIP).

Future: Kershaw, like anybody on this list, is expected to have an exceptional big league career. His fantasy prospects are also very high given his exceptional strikeout numbers at such a young age. More time in the big leagues will allowing him to gain better control and become a more effective pitcher. Remember, this kid was in only 20.

Season Stock: Kershaw is difficult piece for the Zou to label. Kershaw may be among his five keepers after this season is over, but Kershaw is probably his best trading piece to a non-contending team in order to pick up much needed offensive help. To add to the issue, Kershaw is not likely to be a player that helps The Zou make it into the playoffs and defend his title. Personally, I think Kershaw is a player to be had for a top infielder or right fielder.

2. David Price, lhp, 22, Rays (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: BSI
Career Numbers: 8-0, 60.2 IP, 59 K, 1.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Season Numbers: 8-0, 60.2 IP, 59 K, 1.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

Quick Shot: Price was the number one overall pick in last year’s June Amateur Draft. He was dominating while at Vanderbilt and hit has carried over into his first full minor league season. While his strikeout rate is not as high as Kershaw’s it is still very strong at nearly one strikeout per inning pitched. Price is expected to be called up to the big leagues in either late-July or August to work out of the Rays bullpen.

Future Stock: Price has the potential to be a one or two starter in a rotation, but will probably not crack the top two for some time with James Shields and Scott Kazmir holding the top two spots in Tampa. The Rays also have starting pitchers Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and Jacob McGee (all three Top 30 prospects) coming up through the system. Still, Price should be a mainstay in the Rays rotation for some time.

Season Stock: Price will carry value as a guy who could pitch on any given day out of the bullpen, strike a lot of people out and not cost sitting relief pitcher due to his starting pitcher eligibility. Price will probably cost more to obtain from the Inoculators because of his current 6-8 record.

3. Matt Wieters, c, 22, Orioles (AA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: .345/.445/.584 with 18 HR in 281 AB
Season Numbers: .345/.445/.584 with 18 HR in 281 AB

Quick Shot: Wieters was drafted by the Orioles last season in the June Draft. He fell to the Orioles because of signability issues and now the Orioles are reaping the benefits. What is impressive about Wieters, ignoring his 1.029 OPS, is he has a 55/52 K/BB ratio. Wieters has also thrown out 25 of 55 would be base stealers and has allowed three passed balls from his catching position.

Future: Wieters is going to be a stud hitter for the Orioles to go along with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. His ability to hit should also see him getting at bats from the DH spot in the order to keep his bat in the order when he needs some rest. While he isn’t going to maintain a 1.029 OPS over the course of a season, he will certainly provide a ton of power and be a tough out.

Season Stock: Wieters has only had 340 minor league plate appearances in his career with most coming in the Carolina League (HiA). But if he keeps hitting like this, it may be tough for the Orioles to ignore him in September, which means he would be added to the ESPN system. If that happens, expect a mad dash to try to pick him up and for the eventual owner to receive a lot of trade offers in the offseason. With this said, I’d be surprised if he made the big league club out of spring training next year. I think the earliest he sees extended time in the big leagues will be midseason next year.

4. Colby Rasmus, of, 21, Cardinals (AAA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: SPR
Career Numbers: .277/.367/.488 with 63 HR and 72 SB, 21 OF Assists – 19 Errors
Season Numbers: .249/.351/.401 with 11 HR and 13 SB

Quick Shot: Rasmus is a five tool player with potential for greater power and hitting ability. At 21 he still has a ton of development left in his game and his body to become a premier player. This is Rasmus first season in AAA and has just recently hit the DL with a leg injury.

Future: I’m not a scout, but Rasmus has similarities to Carlos Beltran. Though that could be just because he has a ton of tools. Whatever. Anyway, Rasmus is going to be a good player, but he is blocked at the moment by a deep Cardinal outfield (Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker). It will be interesting to see what the Cardinals decide to do. At any rate, it makes predicting Rasmus call-up to the big leagues a bit more difficult to predict given that Rasmus really isn’t pounding on the doors at the moment.

Season Stock: His stock for this season is next to nothing. I’d suspect that trading for him from a Cardinals fan would likely be out of the question as well.

5. Jason Heyward, of, 19, Braves (LoA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: .326/.391/.478 with 9 HR and 15 SB
Season Numbers: .329/.396/.476 with 8 HR and 14 SB

Quick Shot: Heyward had just 43 at bats last season in two separate rookie leagues before entering this season. In his first season in the South Atlantic League (A) he is putting strong numbers. He ranks 13th in OPS so far this season.

Future: Heyward’s value comes in his age (18) and his body (6’4”, 220). As his body fills out he should develop more power than he already has now to go along with his good feel for the strike zone. He’s probably a few years away from the big leagues.

Season Stock: None until about 2010.

6. Cameron Maybin, of, 21, Marlins (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: FA
Career Numbers: .296/.385/.479 with 35 HR, 17 3B and 69 SB
Season Numbers: .265/.357/.461 with 12 HR, 6 3B and 17 SB

Quick Shot: Maybin is a tremendous talent that was rushed to the big leagues last season in Detroit (promoted from A+ to MLB by Detroit). Maybin has a rare combination of power and speed that will make him very valuable. The downside is he has huge strikeout issues (99 K in 306 AB in AA this season). He will have to reduce that before Florida calls him up to the bigs.

Future: Maybin will likely spend all season in the minors. The earliest I see him coming up is midseason next year, but I don’t think that will happen. Maybin is still just 21-years-old.

Season Stock: Maybin will likely not be a September call-up, but it is not entirely out of the question. He probably is a bit of a risk to keep, but he is available to pick up if you are desperate for options.

7. Matt LaPorta, of, 23, Indians (AA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: .296/.393/.607 with 33 HR and 1.000 OPS
Season Numbers: .292/.401/.575 with 21 HR and a 67/45 K/BB ratio

Quick Shot: LaPorta has tons of power and a decent feel for the strike zone. He is an average defender and doesn’t have a lot of speed. Still, the kid can rake.

Future: LaPorta is very close to being big league ready. His numbers dictate he could handle a jump to AAA today if that is what Cleveland decided to do. It would not be surprising of he was given a September call-up given how he’s playing this season. An outfield with both him and Grady Sizemore in it has insane potential. Add in a healthy Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner and things are looking up in Cleveland.

Season Stock: Given LaPorta’s power he could make things interesting for a contending team if he is called up in September. LaPorta is another one of those guys who may not make the club out of Spring Training next year, but I think he has a better shot than Maybin or Wieters.

8. Rick Porcello, rhp, 19, Tigers (HiA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: 90 IP, 49 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Season Numbers: 90 IP, 49 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Quick Shot: Porcello is very young (19) and has a ton of upside. This is his first full season in pro ball and he’s doing it in the Florida State League (HiA). Porcello will strikeout more batters as his control improves and he gets a better feel for pitching in the pros.

Future: At he age of 19 and standing at 6’5”, 200 the future is very bright for him. He has the ability to develop three “plus” pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Changeup) and has a decent slider. He’s already toping out at 94 mph on his fastball and has good life to it. He’s going to be REALLY good and was a steal for the Tigers at 23 overall in last year’s draft. Put him in with Detroit’s massive stadium and strong lineup and he’s going to be tough to beat.

Season Stock: He won’t see the bigs until 2010 at the earliest.

9. Andrew McCutchen, of, 21, Pirates (AAA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: FA
Career Numbers: .284/.361/.418 with 85 SB
Season Numbers: .282/.371/.405 with 8 HR and 24 SB

Quick Shot: McCutchen is a toolsy player with very good speed. At 5’11”, 175 there is not a lot of room to grow, limiting his power potential. But McCutchen is expected to develop more power than he has now. McCutchen has a decent arm and can cover a lot of ground in centerfield.

Future: McCutchen should bring lots of run production to the Pirate lineup. This is his first full year in AAA but he has more than 400 at bats at the AAA level. Expect a September call up with McCutchen and a possible Opening Day start next season. This plan could be accelerated if Jason Bay is traded by the deadline.

Season Stock: McCutchen probably won’t have a lot of impact this season but he could be a nice player to have next season. He’d be worth trading for if you need keeper prospects and has added value because of his ability to steal bases and score runs.

10. Travis Snider, of, 20, Blue Jays (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: FA
Career Numbers:.299/.370/.514 with 45 HR – 296 K, 114 BB
Season Numbers: .266/.336/.471 with 18 HR

Quick Shot: Snider has a tremendous about of power that should translate to the majors. He does have a massive strikeout problem (120 K in 350 AB – 35 BB). This is going to have to be fixed before he can move up to the big leagues.

Future: Snider has a serious shot at being an Opening Day starter next season in either the OF or DH role. There was some talk he may be called up after the All-Star break as a result of Vernon Wells injury. Either way, he is not too far away from the big leagues.

Season Stock: Once he’s called up Snider will provide a lot of pop to a team willing to deal with his strikeouts. Snider is a bit of a risky keeper if he doesn’t fix his strikeout problem soon.

Round-Up and Preview

Saturday Round-Up

Ryan Ludwick SPR: 3/5, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 runs, BB = 20 FP
Troy Glaus ZOU: 4/4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs, 2 BB = 17 FP
Kevin Youkilis SPR: 2/4, HR, 6 RBI, run = 17 FP
Jason Bay CRN: 2/5, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 runs, K = 17 FP
Ervin Santana CRN: W, 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K = 47.5 FP
Edinson Volquez HH: W, 7 IP, 6 H, ER, 2 BB, 10 K = 43.5 FP
Tim Wakefield SPR: W, 7 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 6 K = 37 FP
Rich Harden ZOU: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 10 K = 28.5 FP

Sunday Preview

Phantom Menaces and Halos Go For 500

In the race for the top overall seed, the Halos and Menaces need every point they can get. Each is looking to turn in the 5th and 6th 500 point weeks of the season. The Menaces needs 28 points this week to turn the trick. With Scott Kazmir starting against Cleveland one it would assume it would be a lock.

The Halos are looking for 60.5 point to hit 500 total points. Andrew will throw out four pitchers – CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Daniel Cabrera and Daisuke Matsuzaka – in an attempt to reach the milestone.

Krunk Smurfs Pass Milestone (For Now)

The Smurfs became the last team yesterday to surpass 4000 total points (4003.5). But with A.J. Burnett taking the mound (13 ER in last 12.1 IP) on just three days rest against the Yankees today, we should probably hold off the celebration for at least a day.

The Smurfs have recently indicated that a loss this week would likely lead to him selling off players. Jason is down by 321.5 points heading into Sunday.

Clemens’ Roid Needles Has Impressive Week

The team with the second fewest total fantasy points scored has a 150 point lead heading into Sunday against the second highest scoring team in the league. CRN is looking to draw within one game of the final playoffs spot – two games out of the three seed. Despite being outscored 4413.5 to 4409 coming into this week, CRN is 7-7 overall. Kyle needs a designated hitter, more production from Miguel Cabrera and B.J. Upton and better health from his team if he is going to stay in the race.

10-Loss Dynamite Upset Cockies

The Cockies took a blow to their playoff stability with a loss to 4-10 Boom Goes the Dynamite. The Dynamite head into Sunday with a 163.5 point lead over the fourth ranked Cockies. The assumed loss along with The Zou’s likely defeat makes the race for the final two playoff spots that much closer. It also expands the Halos division lead to three games. Joel has now lost two of the last three weeks and has matchups against KC, The Zou and Phantom Menaces lined up through the rest of July.

Baring a collapse, Boom Goes the Dynamite will have won three of he last for matchups, including a win over The Zou. His only loss came against the Phantom Menaces. Adam’s 391 points this week are the second most points he has scored the season and is the most he has scored since his week nine loss to KC. His next three matchups are against the Rasmus’, Inoculators and KC.

KC and the Inoculators Go Down to the Wire

A 27.5 point spread separates KC from the Inoculators heading into Sunday. A 14-point Joe Nathan save and a minus 19-point outing from Matt Garza was the difference in yesterday’s scoring. The Inoculators will send out Brandon Webb, Nick Blackburn, Ian Snell and Mike Pelfrey to counter KC’s Andy Pettitte. Here were all five pitcher’s results from earlier starts this week.

Andy Pettitte: W, 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 K vs TB
Brandon Webb: W, 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K vs WASH
Nick Blackburn: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 K vs BOS
Ian Snell: 3.2 IP, 4 H, ER, 3 BB, K vs HOU
Mike Pelfrey: W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K vs SF (was not on the Inoculators roster)

The Inoculators have scored 273 offensive points this week, far and away the most in the league through Saturday. The difference has been the pitching, scoring only 75 points this week. Now would be a good time for four good starts for the Inoculators who need a win to move within two games of the playoffs.

Letters to the Editor, Friday Round-Up and Saturday Preview

Dear Editor,

My name is Roy Halladay and I hate Ben Nielsen. Why do I hate Ben Nielsen? Because I love to irrationally hate opposing fantasy owners. Additionally, I have no clue who Ben is – making it easier to hate him. I’m sure he’s a decent person and all, but I couldn’t even tell you what he looks like. It’s a lot easier to hate people when you don’t know who they are as a person. Nielsen has a guy like that: Anquan Boldin.

Anyway, I heard through the grapevine that I was on a team facing Nielsen this week so I decided to go out and two-hit those damned New York Yankees. That’s right, the Yankees. SOB’s. I thought I’d add a little pizazz to my shutout by striking out 8 damn Yankees. I figured this, plus the great start Matt Cain had, would effectively end that SOB Nielsen’s season. Then I found out the team I’m on didn’t start Cain. Fool.

Oh well, I’ve still put Nielsen’s playoff hopes in dire straights (Where that saying came from or how it is correctly spelled I have no idea). That’s all that can be asked of me.

Anyway, have a good day and f**k the damn Yankees!

***

Dear Editor,

Hi. I’m Randy Johnson and I’m here to screw over Ben Nielsen’s playoff chances. Last week , after losing six straight starts on purpose, I decided it was time – with Nielsen down by 2 million points – to have a one and a half million point game. Just a good enough start to force him to not cut me. I noticed early in the week that Nielsen’s been planning on not starting me this week to force me to put back-to-back starts together (Which I can’t do because 41,000-years-old!). Well I could not have that if my sole purpose for being in the Major Leagues is to ruin Nielsen’s fantasy team. So I gave my buddies Mark Buehrle and Roy Halladay a call to tell them I needed them to step up this week. They obliged of course because I'm effing Randy Johnson! They would have put back-to-back shutouts together if it weren’t for that pesky Mike Aviles fellow and his dog too. Anyway, now he’s forced to start me this week so my purpose in the Majors can still be fulfilled and finally retire in peace.

Have a good day and f*** Roger Clemens!

***

Dear Editor,

I’m Matt Cain and I’m trying to figure out why the hell I wasn’t started yesterday.

Have a good day and f*** the guy who traded me this week!

***

Friday Round-Up

Ronnie Belliard FA: 3-for-4, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 runs = 20 FP
Austin Kearns FA: 2-for-2, 2 BB, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 runs = 18 FP
Brian Roberts HH: 3-for-5, K, 2B, 3B, RBI, 2 runs, 2 SB = 17 FP
Jack Hannahan FA: 3-for-4, BB, HR, 3 RBI, 2 runs = 16 FP
Roy Halladay KC: W, 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, BB, 2 HBP, 8 K = 62 FP
Jake Peavy BSI: W, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 7 K = 41 FP
Luis Mendoza FA: W, 6 IP, 3 H, ER, BB, 8 K = 40.5 FP
Cliff Lee PCO: W, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, BB, 7 K = 38.5 FP

Saturday Preview

The Fat Lady Has Sung and Left the Building – Halos over Rasmus’ and Phantom Menaces over Smurfs

The Phantom Menaces have a serious shot at 500 points this week, which should eat into the Halos current 271 overall point lead. (PM leads the Halos 406.5 – 339 this week.)

One Bullet Avoided, One More to Go – ‘Roid Needles over The Zou

CRN avoided a massive point day for the Zou. Roy Oswalt left in the first inning with a hip injury; Joba Chamberlain’s six and two-thirds quality innings, seven strikeout performance turned into a loss because the Yankees couldn’t score; Oliver Perez gave up just one run in six innings and got a no-decision; Felix Hernandez gave up three runs in five innings, but struck out eight in a losing effort; Doug Davis turned in a par outing. All of this and The Zou still posted 49 pitching points for a 77 point day. The Zou sends out Rich Harden today while CRN counters with Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana and Seth McClung.

Sunday will be the real test for CRN when The Zou sends out Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Andrew Miller and possibly Jesus if he is recalled from AAA Pawtucket.

Upset of the Week – Boom Goes the Dynamite over Cockies

The Cockies will send four pitchers to the mound today: Pedro Martinez (vs. COL), Jesse Litsch (vs. the recently shutout Yankees), Todd “Freakin’” Wellemeyer (@ Pit) and Wandy Rodriguez (@ WASH). After typing these names, I feel more confident this upset is going to happen.

(Editor’s Note: I thought I would note the Cockies scored over 500 points last week against the Inoculators and have followed that up with a whopping 223.5 points this week. Yep, the Inoculators are cursed. Additionally, don’t you think it is funny I wrote an “Editor’s Note” even though I am the writer and (exceedingly terrible) editor of this here blog? I did. I’m sorry you didn’t. You should be laughing right now, but you’re not. This makes me sad. And, yes, I know you don’t care.)

Matchup of the Week – KC over Inoculators

The Inoculators scored 99 points yesterday and only managed to shave 5.5 points off of KC’s 20.5 point lead. The Inoculators will attempt to shave the remaining 15 points with help of starts from Matt Garza (@ CLE) and Randy Johnson (@ PHI). All of this will probably be for naught as Greg Maddux will probably throw a 27-strikeout perfect game for KC tonight. Figures.

Undrafted Keepers Thought, a Musical and Draft Results

Kyle and I were talking about some of the league keeper rules when Kyle mentioned he wasn’t all for the rules as it relates to undrafted players noting that owners should be rewarded for pulling the trigger quickly on budding players. Part of me agrees with this idea. Another part of me is concerned about the competitiveness of the league. Overall, though, I do think a tweak could be made, so here is what I came up with.

Undrafted players would cost no less than a 15th round pick and no more than a 10th round pick. A tier system based on the amount of fantasy points scored would determine the round the undrafted player would be worth.

What do you think? Kyle liked the idea and I can sleep at night with this rule. Post your thoughts and comments on the blog.

***

This may be one of the greatest things I have read in quite some time. It was written by Ben Greenman of the New Yorker. Greenman writes a musical depicting the whole Madonna/AROD saga that has been going on. Great read. If you are not aware of such controversy, then read this.

***

After a little more research, I found that the draft results I posted a few days ago is riddled with errors. I also forgot that I posted a much cleaner version of the list in early April. Use that list instead of the recently posted one. I’ll likely re-post the list again as a reminder when the season comes closer to an end.

Thursday Round-up and Weekend Preview

Thursday Round-up

Ken Griffey Jr.: 2-for-5, BB, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 runs = 18 FP
Howie Kendrick: 3-for-5, BB, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 runs, 2 K = 18 FP
Justin Morneau: 5-for-5, 2 2B, HR, RBI, 2 runs, BB = 16 FP
Fernando Tatis: 2-for-3, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, run = 16 FP
Dave Bush: W, 8 IP, 4 H, ER, 13 K = 59 FP
Dan Haren: 8 IP, 3 H, ER, 2 BB, 9 K = 35 FP
Zack Greinke: 7 IP, 6 H, ER, BB, 8 K = 29 FP
Jamie Moyer: W, 7 IP, 7 H, ER, 2 BB, 4 K = 23.5 FP

Weekend Preview

The Blowouts - Halos over Rasmus’ and Phantom Menaces over Smurfs

Both of the 11-3 teams are taking care of business against the 4-10 teams. This will be the Smurfs 9th loss in 10 weeks after starting 3-1.

Solid Lock, But… - ‘Roid Needles over The Zou

CRN leads The Zou by 138 points with three days left. Erik still has ten starts left over the next three days, including starts from Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, Roy Oswalt and Chad Billingsley. So anything can still happen in this matchup. Still, 138 points is a lot of ground to cover as long as CRN can post some decent numbers.

Upset of the Week - Boom Goes the Dynamite over Cockies

Boom Goes the Dynamite has an 81.5 point lead over the Cockies. The Cockies have four starts left from Gavin Floyd, Tim Redding, Jesse Litsch and Armando Galarraga. Barring a negative day or some huge starts from the four aforementioned pitchers, Dynamite should pull off the upset.

Anybody’s Game

Two good starts from Zack Greinke and Mark Buehrle and two bad starts from Andy Sonnanstine and Kevin Slowey have given KC the 223.5 to 203 edge heading into the weekend.

The Inoculators will send out Jake Peavy, Clay Buchholz and Manny Parra to try and stop the bleeding while KC will counter with Matt Cain and Roy Halladay. Crossover matchups include Cain versus Geovany Soto and Buchholz versus Adam Jones.

Playoff Implications (assuming scores hold up)

Halo and Menace wins coupled with a Zou loss means both the Halos and Phantom Menaces will have a two game cushion between them and one and two seeds. As of now, the Halos have the one seed because of total points.

A Zou loss makes them more vulnerable at the three seed, but not as vulnerable as the Cockies, who would only have a one game lead over CRN for the fourth and final playoff spot if scores hold up.

An Inoculators come back would put him only two games out of the final playoff spot. A loss means he remains three games back with time quickly running out.

My Love for Mike Aviles

It was the bottom of the eighth inning and my fantasy prospects were doomed. Entering the day I had a 62.5 point lead and two solid pitchers starting. Then all hell broke lose. By the afternoon I was down 21.5 points after a terrible start from Kevin Slowey. This was then countered by 10-win Andy Sonnanstine blowing a 2-0 lead by giving up 6 runs in 5 innings. The loss sent my fantasy pitching total for the day to minus 50.5 and, at the time, my offense had produced a whopping 22 points.

On the other end KC had both Zack Greinke and Mark Buehrle pitching. The two through seven innings had combined for 53.5 points. The only earned run given up in the game was a solo home run by KC starting right fielder Jermaine Dye.

Buehrle came on in the eighth with a shutout still in tact. A shutout win for Buehrle would mean a 25 point net for KC. Greinke would get the loss, but he would also get the quality start. Buehrle would get the quality start, win and shutout. This would mean a 78.5 point pitching day for KC and a negative 50.5 pitching day for me. Throw in that both of our offenses were canceling each other out and suddenly KC is looking at a near 100 point lead heading into the weekend, sending my playoff chances spiraling down the drain. Life was grim.

Then Buehrle gave up a leadoff single to John Buck. Suddenly there was a glimmer of hope. Joey Gathright was going to (and did) pinch run for Buck, steal second and then let the hottest hitter with runners in scoring position drive him home. It was our only chance. Then, for some reason unknown to man, Gathright never attempted to steal. David DeJesus was ordered to bunt – twice. And DeJesus grounded into a double play – almost. A slightly wide throw to first went off of Paul Konerko’s glove and DeJesus was safe.

This brought up Aviles. Aviles was 0-3 with a three pitch strikeout. He wasn’t seeing Buehrle well at all. Nobody was seeing Buehrle well. And if David DeJesus couldn’t hit, nobody would.

Then it happened.

Aviles took the first pitch and ripped it down the left field line all the way to the wall allowing DeJesus to score from first. Aviles stood on second, as he has seemingly the entire time he’s been in the big leagues, clapping for yet another clutch game-tying hit.

I was clapping for a different reason. I feel the winds of change.

Harden Trade Not Good for Zou

Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin traded to Cubs for SP Sean Gallagher, OF Matt Murton, OF/IF Eric Patterson and C Josh Donaldson

The trade of Harden to the Cubs means bad news for the Zou. While Harden is an excellent pitcher (when healthy) Wrigley Field is not a good place for him. I think Harden is bound for another injury this season because he will be overthrowing to keep the ball in the ball park. While this may be good for a start or two, Harden has proven his durability is not something to rely on. On the other hand, Harden could remain healthy and add to his massive strikeout numbers (10.75 K/9).

Chad Gaudin loses a lot of his value for the Phantom Menace’s. Gaudin has been moved the bullpen and has already struggled in Wrigley Field. Gaudin is not a big strikeout guy as it is so the Menace’s need to look for more pitching.

Sean Gallagher is a possible keeper option for the Rasmus’.

Eric Patterson is a free agent in our league who may be a guy someone desperate for keeper prospects picks up because of his speed. Matt Murton is also in the same boat, but for his power and not speed.

Josh Donaldson is a mediocre catching prospect who is in single-A at the moment. He is not in the fantasy picture at the moment.

Contender? Turning Over the Inoculator Roster in 24 Hours

Trade now or forever hold your piece. This seems to be the motto for the “pretty much out of it, but still very much in it” Inoculators. Over the last 24 hours, the Inoculators roster has been almost entirely over-hauled. Here are his moves and analysis of them.

At 6-8, the Inoculators are walking a fine line between trying to get into the playoffs and accumulating keeper prospects. Whether or not he did that is yet to be seen, but early analysis says he did.

Grady Sizemore for Tim Hudson, Nick Blackburn and Dustin Pedroia

Grady Sizemore is the ninth highest scoring fantasy player in the league going to a team who needs some consistency. Sizemore is a career .282 hitter in the first half of the season and a .280 hitter in the second half. His power numbers are similar too, but it is unknown if he can keep up his AL leading home run pace. Sizemore will score runs and steal bases too. This is a good pick up for the Cockies.

The Inoculators probably could have (and should have) gotten more for Sizemore. Putting this trade in the context of all of the Inoculators moves makes the trade look better than what it really is. Tim Hudson is a very good fantasy pitcher, but not a great one. Then again, Hudson could end up being a huge addition for an Inoculators club desperate for big time pitchers. Hudson was 1-3 with a 7.17 ERA in inter-league play this year, masking the success he’s had in the National League this season. So far this season, Tim has posted an 8-3 record with a 1.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Given that interleague is finished, that is good news for the Inoculators.

Dustin Pedroia is a border line keeper pick. He can provide top three second baseman production and wasn’t drafted until the twelfth round. Pedroia’s strength is scoring runs and hitting for extra bases. Because the Red Sox lineup is so deep, Pedroia will also drive in plenty of runs.

Nick Blackburn is a guy who doesn’t walk people and puts up decent strikeout numbers. He’s a spot start guy, though.

Josh Hamilton and Brandon Webb for Jermaine Dye, James Loney, Mark Buehrle and Matt Cain

Losing the third rated centerfielder meant there was a huge gap to fill for the Inoculators. So the Inoculators traded for the top centerfielder in fantasy. Additionally, Hamilton is a great keeper prospect after being drafted in the seventeenth round.

The Inoculators then went out and picked up one of the top rated fantasy pitchers in Brandon Webb.

KC ended up getting two keeper prospects out of this in James Loney and Matt Cain. Loney is a young first baseman who is hitting .300 with 41 runs scored and 47 RBI on a team that can’t score runs. If the Dodgers can add some help around him next season, he’ll be a top five first baseman.

Matt Cain is a strikeout machine who gets zero run support. Cain has 112 strikeouts this season in 119 innings.

Mark Buehrle may also be an interesting keeper prospect despite his poor season.

Added J.J. Hardy, Ian Snell and David Price

J.J. Hardy is on fire and a possible keeper prospect. Hardy has 101 points in his last 15 games played. If the Inoculators are out if it officially at the end of the month, then Hanley Ramirez could be traded to add prospects allowing Hardy to fill in.

Ian Snell just returned from the DL and scouts are saying he is back to his old form (so does Snell). The Inoculators will find out quick as he starts tonight. Snell could provide a boost in the strikeout department and maybe steal a few wins.

David Price is the 10th rated prospect by Baseball America and is expected to be called up later this month or in early July. Many have said Price is the reason why the Rays did not trade for C.C. Sabathia. Price is 7-0 with a 1.68 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 53.2 innings this season in high-A and AA ball. Price was selected in the 25th round making him an excellent keeper prospect.

Activated Clay Buchholtz from DL

Clay Buchholtz will make his highly anticipated return to the big leagues Friday against the Baltimore Orioles. A big second half from him would be huge for the Inoculators.

If things were normalized...

Andrew Wessley crunched some numbers today and found the following...

***

League Avg Score per week: 336pts

Record if playing against league average every week:

Would be playoff teams at this point:

COCK: 9-5 (DR = 0, DS = +3)*
Zou: 9-5 (DR = -1, DS = +1)*
HH: 8-6 (DR= -3, DS= -2)#
PCO: 8-6 (DR = -3, DS = -3)#

*Division Winner
#Wild Card

HH and PCO get playoff spots over BSI based on total points scored.
--------------------------------------------
The Rest:

BSI: 8-6 (DR = +2, DS= +2)
BGtD: 7-7 (DR= +3, DS= +1)
SPR: 6-8 (DR = +2, DS= 0)
CRN: 6-8 (DR=-1, DS= -2)
KC: 5-9 (DR= +1, DS= 0)
KS: 3-11 (DR= -1, DS= 0)

DR = Difference in Record
DS = Difference in Standings

Round-by-Round Draft That Will Be Used For Keepers

First Round (These players cannot be kept):
David Wright
David Ortiz
Brandon Webb
Johan Santana
Brandon Phillips
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Zambrano
Alex Rodriguez
Grady Sizemore
Justin Mourneau

Second Round (These players cannot be kept):
Troy Tulowitzki
Hanley Ramirez
Carlos Lee
Michael Young
BJ Upton
Ryan Howard
Ichiro
Vladimir Guerrero
Mark Texiera
Carl Crawford

Round Three
Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Travis Hafner
John Lacky
Aramis Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Victor Martinez
Alex Rios
Felix Hernandez
Roy Oswalt

Round Four
John Smoltz
Jake Peavy
Derrek Lee
Manny Ramirez
Fausto Carmona
Joe Mauer
Dice K
Lance Berman
Garret Atkins
Derrek Jeter

Round five
Bobby Abreu
JJ Putz
Roy Halladay
Chipper Jones
Jimmy Rollins
Carlos Guillen
Tim Hudson
Alfonso Soriano
Adam Dunn
Yovani Gallardo

Round Six
Hunter Pence
Eric Burns
Jeff Francis
Chase Utley
Hideki Matsui
Chris Young
Adam Wainwright
Alex Gordon
Matt Holliday
Francisco Rodriguez

Round Seven
Carlos Pena
Miguel Tejada
Joe Nathan
Brian McCann
Takashi Saito
Brad Penny
Mike Lowell
Robinson Cano
Chone Figgins
Matt Kemp

Round Eight
Chad Billingsly
Matt Cain
Khalil Greene
Aaron Rowand
Ben Sheets
Brett Meyers
James Shields
Ian Kinsler
Javier Vazquez
Brad Hawp

Round Nine
Mariano Rivera
Torii Hunter
Adrian Gonzalez
Orlando Hudson
Chris B. Young
Francisco Liriano
Conner Jackson
Chien Ming Wang
Placido Polanco
Ryan Zimmerman

Round Ten
Gary Sheffield
Jim Thome
AJ Burnett
Jose Valverde
Pat Burrell
Billy Wagner
Johnny Damon
Adrian Beltre
Jorge Posada
Kelvim Escobar

Round Eleven
Justin Verlander
Pedro Martinez
Kenji Johjima
Gil Meche
John Maine
Francisco Cordero
Jered Weaver
Bobby Jenks
Geovany Soto
Jeremy Bonderman

Round 12
Kyle Kendrick
Phil Hughes
Brad Lidge
Billy Butler
James Loney
Dan Haren
Kevin Youkilis
Joe Blanton
Dustin Pedroia
Rich Hill

Round Thirteen
Todd Helton
Dustin McGowan
Zack Greinke
Jason Isringhausen
Cory Hart
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Kosuke Fukudome
Jason Varitek
Clay Buchholtz
Ivan Rodriguez

Round Fourteen Ian Snell
Houston Street
Greg Maddux
Al Reyes
Derrek Lowe
Raphael Soriano
Mark Buehrle
Dontrelle Willis
Ubaldo Jimenez
Olivar Perez

Round Fifteen
Rich Harden
Randy Johnson
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Kazmir
Brian Bannister
Jeff Francoeur
Jacoby Ellsbury
Joe Borowski
Jeremy Guthrie
John Lester

Round Sixteen
Vernon Wellls
Josh Beckett
Andy Pettitte
Jacque Jones
Micah Owings
Hiroki Kuroda
Shane Victorino
Juan Pierre
Homer Bailey
Mark Prior

Round Seventeen
Nick Swisher
Joakim Soria
Chad Cordero
Tom Gorzelanny
Magglio Ordonez
Dan Uggla
Edgar Renteria
Josh Hamilton
Coco Crisp
Bronson Arroyo

Round Eighteen
Shawn Marcum
Dave Bush
Andruw Jones
Jason Bay
Michael Bourn
Paul Konerko
JJ Hardy
Ty Wiggington
Evan Longoria
Jay Bruce

Round Nineteen
Joba Chamberlain
Matt Garza
Erik Bedard
Jeremy Accardo
Matt Capps
Delmon Young
Jorge Cantu
JD Drew
Michael Cuddyer
Manny Corpas

Round Twenty
Kelly Johnson
Barry Zito
David DeJesus
Frank Thomas
Todd Jones
Kevin Gregg
Melky Cabrera
Jeff Kent
Kerry Wood
Kevin Gregg
Melky Cabrera
Jeff Kent
Kerry Wood
Kevin Kouzmanoff

Round Twenty-one
Cole Hamels
Rickie Weeks
Johnny Cueto
Yorvit Torrealba
Curtis Granderson
Jack Cust
Chris Duncan
Chad Tracy
Rick Ankiel
Carlos Marmol

Round Twenty-two
Josh Fields
Jake Westbrook
Kevin Corria
Nate Robinson
Kyle Kendrick
Tony Pena
Aaron Cook
Jason Giambi
Jermaine Dye
Raphael Furcal

Round Twenty-three
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Adam Miller
Freddy Sanchez
Franklin Morales
Benji Molina
Colby Rasmus
Chris Sampson
Jhonny Peralta
Bartolo Colon

Round Twenty-four
Steven Drew
Brandon Lyon
Adam Jones
Hiroki Okajima
Tom Glavine
Ervin Santana
Scott Baker
Chuck James
JR Towels
Joey Votto

Round Twenty Five
David Price
Tim Wakefield
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Church
Kenny Rogers
Josh Willingham
Braden Looper
Jhonny Estrada
Ramon Hernandez
Daniel Cabrera

Round Twenty Six
Jon Garland
Pat Niechek
Jeff Suppan
Troy Glaus
Aubrey Huff
Lastings Millage
Hank Blaylock
Yunel Escobar
Brandon wood
Clayton Kershaw

Round Twenty Seven
Tim Lincecum*
Jair Jurjens
Andre Either
Cliff Lee
Gustavo Chachin
Ryan Garko
Albert Pujols*
Willie Blumquest*
Paul Byrd
Russell Martin**

Round Twenty Eight
CC Sabathia*
Carlos Delgado
Ted Lily*
Jose Reyes*
Mark Moulder
Shawn Hill
Aaron Harang*
Prince Fielder*
Ryan Braun*

*= player cannot be kept
**= player equals a 9th round keeper