Team: Rolorado Cockies
Owner: Joel Schilb
Draft Pick Order: 6th Overall
Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*1 – Johan Santana (1)2 – Francisco Liriano (5)3 – Derrek Lee (4)4 – James Shields (5)5 – Matt Hilliday (Kept)6 – Chris Davis (5)7 – Corey Hart (5)8 – Carlos Marmol (6)9 – Javier Vasquez (11)10 – Milton Bradley (10)Thoughts:My God, my God, why have you forsaken me? What the hell was Joel thinking for the first 30 minutes of the draft? And that was a rhetorical question, Joel, so please do not answer so as to not make the rest of us dumber for trying to desifer the ill fated logic that was flowing thru that organ some of us refer to as a “brain”.
Let’s start with this: Having Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, James Shields and Javier Vazquez on one’s team is not a bad thing – it is most certainly a good thing. But this is not a player evaluation, this is a draft evaluation. And key to a draft evaluation is a little thing called “value”. V-a-l-u-e. For instance, if one is looking for an iPod and the average cost is $150 and a store is selling a brand new one for $135, than one is getting a $15 value. If one buys the same iPod for $1000, than they are either doing it for charity or they are just flat out desperate to own an iPod. I think the latter reflects Joel’s pitching strategy.
Francisco Liriano is a very good pitcher when healthy. But the problem with Liriano is that you have to add the whole “when healthy” tag to him whenever one speaks of him because, you know, he has health issues. This is why he was going in the seventh round in real drafts and was valued as a fifth rounder in our draft. Additionally, it was the appeal of keeping Liriano that made him a more interesting player. This will be his first full season of being in the big leagues since his rookie year. Expecting him to produce at a second round pick is asking a lot. And lets also not forget that Liriano cannot be kept now because he was taken in the second round – what good was there taking him there?
Here’s my suggestion: If you are hell bent on pitching, take Jake Peavy in round two. Is it a reach? Yeah, a little, but it is way less risky than Liriano. If you really want Lirano, wait for him in the fourth round. It’s still a minor reach, but you have the added bonus of keeping him and if he’s not there you still have Peavy. Additionally, as you know, Shields was still there at four. A threesome of Santana, Peavy and Shields is far more enticing than Santana, Liriano and Shields.
But here’s my bigger problem: the hellish idea that starting pitching wins this league. In 2008, only 10 pitchers scored more than 600 points. Ten. And of those 11, only five scored more than 700 points. To put that in prospective, 10 hitters scored more than 800 points last season and 62 hitters scored more than 600 points last season. And it’s not like hitters totally out-weigh pitchers in terms of roster space. Generally, a team carries 12 to 13 pitchers on their 25 man roster and there are at least 150 starting pitchers in the league at any given time – three times more than any other position on the field.
But here it comes, the counterargument: But if there are only 10 elite pitchers and a half a billion hitters, than pitchers have more value because there are not as many of them. And furthermore, if there are only ten pitchers worth having, one should spend high picks on them to get those players. WRONG! But I don’t want to go into this yet, I’m saving that for another blog and my head is about to explode out of anger and frustration.
Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round PicksBest: Kelly Shoppach. A lot of people are very high on Kelly (I’m not one of them), but many would point to this pick as an absolute steal in the 19th round. Since I’m not high on him, this is probably a good sign for Joel.
Worst:75% of his draft. Honestly, I hate this draft from on so many levels, I don’t know where to begin. But with that said, Joel made the playoffs last season and I didn’t so I’ll leave it there.
Starting Positional BreakdownC – Geovany Soto: There is some risk of regression this season, but I think he’ll end up being the second best catcher (behind Brian McCann) this season.
1B – Derrek Lee: An excellent producing first baseman in a high-octane lineup. Injuries are an issue with Lee as is the fact that he plays for a cursed team.
2B – Alexei Ramirez: Still have no idea why he was kept and I think he is more likely to suffer from a sophomore jinx as opposed to having a breakout season.
3B – Chris Davis: A very risky pick in that he strikes out a lot, but does hit for a lot of power in a hitter friendly ballpark. I had him on my team at the end of the season last year and noticed he was a very streaky hitter. Joel needs to hope Davis times his slumps for weeks that won’t hurt him.
SS – Jhonny Peralta: Ugh. I suppose it could be worse. I would mind this if 1) he wasn’t a keeper and 2) he had a stronger lineup around him.
LF – Matt Holliday: Holliday is a great hitter, but I do expect some of his power to decrease in a not so friendly park for hitters. There is also not much around Holliday, besides Jason Giambi, in terms of possible RBI situations or run scoring opportunities. It will be interesting to see how much he falls off – I don’t expect it to be too much, though.
CF – Chris B. Young: Yikes. Nice power potential, but his strikeouts are a killer. Young will have to see great improvement in this area if he wants to be fantasy relevant.
This seems like a good time to note how terribly awful Joel’s lineup is. This may also be a good time to point out that only three of these players scored more than 600 points last season. That is an unbelievable feat to build such a terrible lineup. But when you see Joel’s draft, it makes sense. Joel is going to regret this.
RF – Corey Hart: Corey. Hart. Wow. I should mention that Raul Ibanez was still on the board when Joel took Hart in the seventh round.
UT – Milton Bradley: Will give you 75 solid games this season, and will be hurt for the rest.
SP1 – Johan Santana: One of five pitchers to score more than 700 points last season.
SP2 – Francisco Liriano: Who knows what you’ll get from him in terms of a full season. If he stays healthy he should be solid.
SP3 – James Shields: I expect him, and the Rays as a whole, to regress a little this season. Call it a World Series hangover. With that said, he should still be a top 30 pitcher.
FLEX – Javier Vazquez: A consistent guy who will not light the world on fire, but will not kill your chances of winning a matchup.
RP – Carlos Marmol: He won’t start the season as the closer, but I do expect him to finish it there.
RP – George Sherrill: I question how many save opportunities he will have with the Orioles this year. Very much so.
RP – Huston Street: Streaky, talented, injury-prone, fantasy nightmare.
General Thoughts:Joel ignored his lineup so much that it has almost rendered his top starters useless. I’m very skeptical of Ryan Dempster, Manny Parra, Armando Galarraga and Francisco Liriano being the guys Joel thinks they will be and think Joel has completely ignored the core of what makes up a great fantasy team. Add in his difficult division and I do not see a repeat trip to the playoffs in his future.
Sarcastic Statement:Joel’s lineup is right up there with 1927 Yankees. If only he had some pitching…
Final StatementNow would be a good time to start determining who you’re going to take with your top three overall pick, Joel.
*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.
