Reviewed: Kyle Morris

Team: A-Roids
Owner: Kyle Morris
Draft Pick Order: 5th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Mark Teixeira (1)
2 – Manny Ramirez (2)
3 – John Lackey (4)
4 – B.J. Upton (3)
5 – Alfonso Soriano (Kept)
6 – Rafael Furcal (5)
7 – Scott Kazmir (7)
8 – Matt Cain (10)
9 – Matt Garza (11)
10 – Adrian Beltre (8)

Thoughts:

Mark Teixeira over Miguel Cabrera was a bad decision in my opinion. I’m going to avoid the statistical comparisons and simplify the argument with this: One does not take risks with their first round pick. Why was the Teixeira pick a risk? The beast that is the New York Yankees.

Look, one knows the upside and down side of drafting Miguel Cabrera. In his first full year in Detroit, Cabrera set career highs in home runs and runs batted in and in the second half of the season hit 21 homers and posted a .951OPS. He has clearly has figured out the learning curve of the league and proven he can hit in the large confines of Comerica Park. Teixeira has proven nothing in terms of how he’ll handle the New York pressure. And with AROD out the first six weeks, all the pressure will be on him to produce. I don’t know what is going to happen to him if the Yankees get off to a slow start.

I’m not saying Teixeira sucks or that he won’t be good this season. The problem is that I don’t know how good he’ll be, but I know I have a solid idea of what Cabrera will do. That’s why I would have picked Cabrera there and avoided the risk.

With that said, I do like the Manny, Upton and Kazmir picks. I’m most impressed that he managed to get Kazmir in the round he was supposed to get him. I figured Kazmir must have gone in round two the way pitching was coming off the board. Kazmir could become an interesting keeper prospect if he continues to improve and as he enters the prime of his career. The kid led the Rays in strike outs despite pitching 60 fewer innings than James Shields for crying out loud.

Matt Cain is an interesting pick to me just because of the devaluation of losses this season. He strikes out (and walks) a ton, but has the worst luck ever. Trust me on this, I’ve had him at some point the last two seasons.

With this said, Kyle managed to navigate the horrific 6 through 10 rounds without making too many disastrous picks. While Cain and Garza were overvalued, their question marks are far fewer than what some of the other decisions made around The League.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Fausto Carmona, Andy Pettitte and Matt Weiters. Carmona: A steal in round 20 if he returns to 2007 status; If not, it was a worthwhile risk. Pettitte: Should pad his stats as the fourth starter in that rotation and will outplay his round 22 value. Weiters: Because Kyle may be the only person in fantasy this year to not overdraft him.

Worst:
Rafael Furcal: Two words for him: Mike Sweeney. I do not trust people with back issues and I certainly don’t trust them in the sixth round (even if he was taken bellow value there).

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Ryan Doumit: I do not see him being the guy he was last year, but, given what was available, it wasn’t a terrible pick and he didn’t overvalue him.

1B – Mark Teixeira: Already said my peace on him.

2B – Mike Aviles: He will drop off from last season, the question is how much? He is an intriguing keeper prospect though if he puts together another nice season. I’d rather have him than Dan Uggla.

3B – Adrian Beltre: Strikeouts and injuries have caused me to not be a very big fan of Beltre. I would have gone a different direction in round 10 and taken a third baseman latter in the draft. There wouldn’t much difference between that guy and what Beltre will do this season anyway.

SS – Rafael Furcal: Mike Sweeney…..

LF – Manny Ramirez: I’m curious to see how happy he will be after the way this offseason went down.

CF – B.J. Upton: Upton was more valuable last season because he qualified at second base. He is not so valuable this year stuck in centerfield. The x-factor in that is if he carries over his power from October into this season.

RF – Magglio Ordonez: I gave my thoughts about him in the keeper blog. Something to add is the possibility he gets traded mid-season. Stating the obvious: A trade will clearly have a big impact on his value depending on where he goes.

UT – Alfonso Soriano: I imagine Jason Bay will see more time here as the season progresses.

SP1 – John Lackey: DL’ed.

SP2 – Matt Cain: The kid will flirt with 200 strikeouts this season and maybe 250 if he can figure out a way to manage his pitch count.

SP3 – Matt Garza: He has mediocre strikeout numbers, but will put up consistent fantasy points, which is more than I can say about most of the guys taken in rounds 6 through 10.

FLEX – Scott Kazmir: If he can go a full 32 starts and get around 200 innings, I’m convinced he will reach 275 strikeouts.

RP – Joakim Soria: The Mexicutioner!!!

RP – Heath Bell: The guy being executed by the Mexicutioner!!!

RP – Matt Lindstrom: So bad (at fantasy) he’s not even worth being executed.

General Thoughts:

Kyle did a good job of staying within value and putting together some good pieces. But a bad set of keepers, some bad early luck (Ervin Santana and John Lackey) and too many question marks leaves him staring down a .500 season.

Sarcastic Statement:

Kyle must be soooo glad he reached for John Lackey in the third round. Oh well, at least he has Ervin Santana!

Final Statement

Matt Weiters will have a below average rookie season, prompting Kyle to not keep him for 2010. Weiters will then be taken in the 22 round by someone and become an absolute fantasy stud. Or maybe not…

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.