It's about time: Baseball is here. Good luck to all. An Opening Day post comes out tomorrow with the rest of the draft reviews coming out Tuesday through Friday (I promise).
For now, here is Erik's review of my draft. Enjoy.
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Team: Inoculators
Owner: Ben Nielsen
Draft Pick Order: 5th Overall
Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Grady Sizemore (1)
2 – Nick Markakis (2)
3 – Brian Roberts (3)
4 – Brian McCann(3)
5 – Joe Nathan (4)
6 – Mariano Rivera (5)
7 – Carlos Pena (6)
8 – Troy Tulowitzki (7)
9 – Jose Valverde (8)
10 – Brett Myers (14)
Thoughts:
It has been said that you cannot win a fantasy league with your first two picks, but you can definitely lose it (just ask me and my second-round Troy Tulowitzki pick last year). It is for this reason that I like Ben’s first two picks. They are both solid and steady, but yet young enough were some growth could take place this year. The only issue here is that Ben took two outfielders when he had already kept Ryan Braun (LF), Josh Hamilton (CF, RF) and Carlos Quentin (LF). So, this essentially means that Ben filled his utility spot with his first pick (in theory filling the CF spot with Sizemore and moving Quentin to the utility spot) and then proceeded to fill a bench spot with his second pick (with that pick, Markaksi filled the utility spot and Quentin was moved to the bench). And while I am a proponent for taking the best available player, it was Ben who so adamantly disliked Adam’s pick of Jose Reyes with the number four pick because he was drafting his utility spot with his first pick. I think a strong case could be made for taking Miguel Cabrera with the fifth pick, which would be a big upgrade over Carlos Pena, and then selecting Markakis (or any other top-level CF or RF) in the second round to fill his RF spot and move Quentin to the Utility role. While Ben had no guarantee that Markakis would be there to fill his RF spot in the second round, Hamilton is eligible in CF and RF so there was a very strong possibility that Sizemore, Markakis, Beltran OR Ichiro would have been there for the taking with his second pick and filled out his outfield nicely. Having said all of that, Ben now possesses solid trade bait with his wealth of stud outfielders.
While Ben got very solid values in the first three rounds, I am not a fan of the Brian McCann pick. I know the values that Ben uses say it was a “steal,” but I don’t particularly like those values. The ADP’s are based on other drafts where the scoring system does not mirror our unique league. I think the fourth round is too early to take a catcher with all the possible injuries that they may face. McCann has been one of the most durable backstops in the game for his first three years and yet he has played an average of 135 games per season. I think in the fourth round, I would prefer to draft somebody who might exceed 140 games, which McCann will not.
In drafting Tulowitzki, Ben took the last shortstop that could really separate himself from the pack. After the “big three” of Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins, there was a big drop-off to the next shortstops, Michael Young and Orlando Cabrera. In Tulowitzki, Ben got an undervalued player who can bridge that wide gap.
Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks
Best:
Kelvim Escobar and John Smoltz. I am not going to say that either of these pitchers will be relevant in fantasy baseball this year, but they both have the potential to be and Ben got them for near nothing in the 24th and 25th rounds. Reports are good on Escobar so far and Ben needs a solid season from one of these players to offset his very shaky starting pitching.
Worst:
Jair Jurrjens, Andy Sonnastine and Elvis Andrus. Jurrjens and Sonnastine are nice #4 or 5 starters in real baseball, but they don’t miss enough bats to be taken in the 13th and 16th rounds. Especially when you consider that players like Paul Maholm weren’t even drafted (Maholm outperformed both Jurrjens and Sonnastine last year and has an outstanding spring – nice pick-up Kimball). As for Andrus, he is a great prospect, but what makes him so great is his glove. Diving plays don’t count for much in fantasy. Because of his speed, he will become relevant playing in that line-up, but not this year … plus Ben already dropped him.
Starting Positional Breakdown
C – Brian McCann: Very solid catcher. Should be one of the top-three catchers in fantasy this season.
1B – Carlos Pena: Struck out 166 times last year. Combine that with a sub .250 batting average and I am not a fan. As an example of our odd scoring system taking effect, Conor Jackson outscored Pena by nearly 60 points last year, but has an ADP that is about six rounds lower … go figure.
2B – Brian Roberts: Great player who does not seem to get the attention of Utley and Kinsler because he plays for the Orioles and does not hit a ton of homers. Great value in the third round.
3B – Evan Longoria: A great talent, it will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to him with a full offseason to study the film.
SS – Troy Tulowitzki: Big-time upside. We will see how he bounces back from the first real struggles he has faced in professional baseball.
LF – Ryan Braun: One of the best hitters in the game. However, it is interesting to note that he was only the eighth best LF in the league last season. Very odd, and not good for a 10-team league if it repeats.
CF – Grady Sizemore: The only thing that could mess this pick up is injuries. Sizemore is one of my favorite players to watch because of the reckless nature with which he plays. Injuries are definitely a risk here, although his back-up would be …
RF – Josh Hamilton: Another injury risk who is a top-10 player if healthy. If Hamilton can keep his head straight and body intact, he gives Ben another great bat in the outfield.
UT – Nick Markakis: Outside of Jose Reyes, this has to be the best Utility player in the league. Markakis continues to get better and that should continue into 2009 as long as he can get some protection in the line-up.
SP1 – ummmm …. Mark Buehrle?: Consistent and aging, Buehrle will need a solid year in a hitter-friendly park to anchor down Ben’s weak staff.
SP2 – Brett Myers: A strikeout pitcher in a contract year. You have to love that. A fly-ball pitcher with a tendency to give up the homer pitching in Philadelphia. You cannot like that. Who knows what Ben will get out of the first starting pitcher he took.
SP3 – Joba Chamberlain: Great strikeout pitcher. If he’s healthy and in the rotation all year, will be Ben’s ace. Injuries and Phil Hughes scare me here. Good value though for the upside.
FLEX – Kelvim Escobar: Supposedly the velocity is coming back nicely. Generally the location takes awhile to return though.
RP – Joe Nathan: Consistent and a stud.
RP – Mariano Rivera: Aging and coming off surgery. Will this be the year he finally struggles?
RP – Jose Valverde: Throws gas and gets strikeouts, but lives on the edge with his control.
General Thoughts
Ben has a great line-up and a solid core of relievers. He will need to make a deal or some nice free-agent acquisitions to sure up his starting rotation though. He has a lot of guys with good potential, but I’m guessing between Smoltz, Escobar, Chamberlain, Buchholz and Myers that at least two don’t make a significant contribution this season.
Sarcastic Statement
According to Ben, the most intelligent thing to do in this league is fill your utility spot with your first pick.
Final Statement
Ben will have a completely different team than this when the season is over. It happens every year. The only question is whether it will be better or not.
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