Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Reviewed: Jason Willey

Team: Krunk Smurfs
Owner: Jason Willey
Draft Pick Order: 3rd Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – David Wright (1)
2 – Ryan Howard (1)
3 – Jake Peavy (3)
4 – Matt Kemp (2)
5 – Joe Mauer (4)
6 – Derek Jeter (4)
7 – Kevin Slowey (11)
8 – Justin Verlander (11)
9 – Brian Fuentes (8)
10 – Mark DeRosa (10)


Thoughts:

In terms of value, Jason’s first six picks were very nice. While I do not consider Jeter a good fantasy player anymore, taking him two rounds later than where he was going to go is very acceptable. Jake Peavy was one of the more sane high round picks and the decision to take David Wright over Jose Reyes was a wise one.

What he was think, then, when he got to round seven baffles me. Kevin Slowey? Round seven? What is more confusing is that he took a decisively better pitcher in the next round. I think this perfectly explains the draft. If someone asked me to explain the draft, I’d say look at Jason’s seventh and then eighth round picks and try to determine the logic used there. Rounds six through 10 were just insane and I think these picks encapsulate that fact.

Mark DeRosa in the 10th round seems strange to me. It is odd that a utility player goes in the top 10 rounds, but he did. I wonder what DeRosa will be like playing every day at second base in Cleveland. For the Royals sake I hope he sucks.

One thing that is going to be true about Jason’s team is he is going to strikeout a ton. Here are some of the 2008 strikeout totals from some of the players he drafted and kept (walks in parenthesis):

Ryan Howard: 199 (81)
Mark DeRosa: 106 (69)
David Wright: 118 (94)
Adam Dunn: 164 (122)
Jay Bruce: 110 (33)
Matt Kemp: 153 (46)
Justin Upton: 121 (54)
Luke Scott: 102 (53)


If you are counting at home, that’s eight of Jason’s 15 hitters that struck out 100 times or more last season. Only Joe Mauer walked more than he struck out last season.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
There are three picks that I really like from Jason: Justin Upton (14), Adam Dunn (13), Jim Thome (19).
I like the Thome pick simply based on value. Thome is in his final season with the White Sox and you wonder if he won’t be playing for one last big payday. Plus, the ball flies out of U.S. Cellular Field. I like the Upton pick because of his upside. If this is Upton’s breakout year and he becomes the player that many think he can be, he will be of excellent value at round 14. If not, Jason didn’t really lose anything there. Adam Dunn equals Ryan Howard only Howard gets more respect because he plays for a better team (I guess).

Ryan Howard (last two seasons average): .259/.364/.562, 94 BB, 199 K, 133 OPS+
Adam Dunn (last two seasons average): .250/.386/.533, 111 BB, 164 K, 133 OPS+


(This thought leads me to a Royals post that I’m going to throw up on the blog sometime.)

Worst:
Kevin Slowey. Why? Just… why?

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Joe Mauer: His health concerns me. Of course, if he is healthy, he is a top three catcher.

1B – Ryan Howard: The dude is going to strike out… a ton. Better hope he walks enough to offset the strikeouts or else some of his home runs are going to go towards canceling out his whiffs and not supplementing his fantasy points.

2B – Mark DeRosa: I don’t know what an everyday Mark DeRosa looks like. I’ve got to wonder when fatigue sets in as well as how quickly he’ll adjust to the American League.

3B – David Wright: Equals fantasy stud.

SS – Derek Jeter: I don’t like Derek Jeter as a player and I don’t like him in fantasy.* There you go.

*I would love him as a player if he didn’t play for the Yankees.

LF – Adam Dunn: The Ryan Howard clone. Did you know that Dunn has hit at least 40 home runs and walked 100 times in five straight seasons? Just sayin’…

CF – Jay Bruce: Jason better hope Bruce improves his discipline at the plate or else this is going to be a long year for him in centerfield.

RF – Andre Ethier: A nice glue piece with a weird last name.

UT – Matt Kemp: Jason likes him some Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospects doesn’t he? Actually, he likes outfield prospects in general it seems. Three of his four outfielders that are starting are all prospect-type guys.

SP1 – Clayton Kershaw: Still a year or two away from being fantasy relevant.

SP2 – Jake Peavy: It should be interesting to see if he gets traded by the deadline. That certainly was a good thing for CC Sabathia. You wonder what kind of effect it will have on Peavy.

SP3 – Kevin Slowey: Ugh…

FLEX – Johnny Cueto: A disastrous keeper selection especially given the ballpark.

RP – Brad Lidge: I don’t know how much to trust last season, but is certainly an excellent closer if he has truly rebounded from being Pujolsed.

RP – Matt Capps: He won’t get you a lot of strikeouts, but he should post 30 plus saves even for a bad Pirates team.

RP – Brian Fuentes: A very nice strikeout pitcher who will receive a ton of save opportunities playing for the Angels.

General Thoughts:

Strikeouts will be the achilies heel for Jason, but he should be rewarded for not falling into the pitching trap in the first six rounds. The Slowey pick still sucks, but the Verlander pick should redeem him.

Sarcastic Statement:

Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn have made excellent strides this offseason in making more contact to reduce their strikeouts and Kevin Slowey is a true fantasy stud in the making.

Final Statement

Jason is going to have to make a few moves if he wants his team to make the playoffs, but we all know that won’t happen. What may be his saving grace is that he’ll be in the Losers Division and may be able to sneak out a few more victories than he should.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

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