Reviewed: Erik Johnson

Team: The Zou
Owner: Erik Johnson
Draft Pick Order: 9th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Chase Utley (1)
2 – Brandon Webb (2)
3 – Ichiro (2)
4 – Jon Lester (7)
5 – Chipper Jones (4)
6 – Yovani Gallardo (7)
7 – Connor Jackson (9)
8 – Chad Billingsley (Kept)
9 – Lastings Milledge (11)
10 – David Price (13)

Thoughts:

Here is where I’m going to differ in evaluating Erik as opposed to everyone else: Erik did not draft enough pitching. Well, let me rephrase that: He didn’t draft the right pitching.

Here would have been my first five picks if I were Erik:

1 – Brandon Webb (also actual pick)
2 – Jake Peavy
3 – Ichiro (also actual pick)
4 – James Shields
5 – Francisco Rodriguez

As has been discussed, and will be discussed again and again, Erik was really the only team lined up to draft pitching heavy and still be in good shape. What Erik needed to supplement in his draft was reliable, red-flagless starting pitching. Now, of course, this does not mean that none of these pitchers will ever suffer from injury (see: Brandon Webb), but the amount of red flags laying around with Erik’s keeper selections is enough to make Wall Street jealous.

A quick reminder of Erik’s keepers: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett. All four of whom have serious injury or recession risks ahead of them. Again, this does not mean they will get hurt or injured, but if they do and Erik has nothing to back them up with, you can kiss his season goodbye.

Erik chose to supplement those four with Webb, Lester, Gallardo and Price. Outside of Webb, Lester is not the greatest fantasy player due to his strikeout rate and he already has some injury risk (though not severe). Gallardo is coming off major surgery and has never pitched a full major league season. David Price started the season in AAA and has about 18 innings of big league experience.

With the changes in pitching scoring, it favors the individual pitcher’s performance and not his team (10 pts for QS instead of 10 pts for W’s). With this in mind, Peavy becomes more valuable in this league than in other’s because his team’s performance isn’t so heavily weighted on his production. James Shields is a more proven and steady pitcher fantasy-wise than Lester and is less of an injury risk (and makes more sense being drafted in the fourth round than Lester). Francisco Rodriguez, while not high on Erik’s importance, was the best available arm in the fifth round. He will score about as many points as an above average starting pitcher and would add consistent points.

Personally, I’d rather go into a season backing up Erik’s big four with Webb, Peavy and Shields, than what he actually selected. Given how Erik’s roster is set up, he would have had a better chance at winning with Peavy on his roster than Utley or Shields over Lester.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Raul Ibanez. How this guy dropped to round 17 in unbelievable to me given some other team’s issues with left fielders. Anyway, it is an absolute bonus for Erik to get Ibanez for such little cost.

Worst:
Lastings Milledge. So bad of a pick that it makes taking David Price in the 10th round look like a steal.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Chris Iannetta: Let’s face it, after the big three there really isn’t much out there when it comes to catchers. Taking a flyer on a guy who plays in Colorado can’t be too bad of an idea can it?

1B – Prince Fielder: If he wants to, he could hit 50 homers, something Erik isn’t used to.

2B – Chase Utley: Even though I think Erik should have gone Peavy here, it doesn’t mean I think Utley sucks. The guy can rake.

3B – Chipper Jones: I have a hard time seeing Jones go a full season at the pace he set last year before he got hurt. If he does, it will help solidify a strong infield.

SS – Orlando Cabrera: Cabrera has a good shot at finishing in the middle of the pack for shortstops.

LF – Connor Jackson: Hits for a decent average, but he doesn’t hit for a lot of power.

CF – Lastings Milledge: Ouch.

RF – Ichiro Suzuki: When is this guy’s legs going to go? Isn’t he like 34 or something? (He’s 35.) Wow, they make’em differently in Japan don’t they?

UT – Raul Ibanez: You know, Erik took Connor Jackson over Ibanez in the seventh round. At the end of the season who do you think is going to be worth a seventh round pick, Ibanez or Jackson?

SP1 – Tim Lincecum: Strikeout machine that could break down at any moment.

SP2 – Brandon Webb: A stud who should see an added bonus more than others with the pitching changes.

SP3 – Cole Hamels: Will be on the DL in 5, 4, 3…

FLEX – Chad Billingsley: Will be meeting Lincecum and Hamels on the DL in 5, 4, 3…

RP – Kerry Wood: Eeeks!

RP – Chad Qualls: Double eeks!

RP – So Bad I Don’t Know Who To Put Here: That’s not good…

General Thoughts:

No one will rely on health more than Erik this season. If his pitching stays upright, he should be back in the playoffs.

Sarcastic Statement:

I like you, Erik.

Final Statement

Erik’s, Erik. What else is there to say. Erik is Erik. (Note: Only Andrew is going to get this joke… maybe.)

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.