Saturday, March 28, 2009

Reviewed: Adam Keller

Team: Viva El Birdos
Owner: Adam Keller
Draft Pick Order: 4th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Jose Reyes (1)
2 – Alex Rodriguez (2)
3 – Felix Hernandez (5)
4 – Jimmy Rollins (Kept)
5 – Curtis Granderson (4)
6 – Adam Wainwright (8)
7 – Bobby Jenks (8)
8 – Hunter Pence (6)
9 – Carlos Zambrano (9)
10 – B.J. Ryan (9)


Thoughts:

I do not understand the Jose Reyes strategy from Adam when he already has Jimmy Rollins on his roster. I get the best player available idea, but I don’t know if that was the best thing for him to do for his team.** Drafting Reyes was essentially drafting a Utility player with your first pick. I think Adam would have been better served taking Miguel Cabrera or Grady Sizemore and having two top player at two positions as opposed having two top players at one position. I think depth in the lineup is important. Additionally, filling out an utility spot is going to be a lot easier than filling out holes in specific positions - like centerfield. Adam certainly has trade bait in Rollins or Reyes, but again, do really want to be drafting trade bait with the fourth overall pick in the draft?

**It should be noted that I did pick after Keller, and did plan on picking Reyes if he fell to me. But I am equally as happy with my actual pick, Grady Sizemore, as I would have been if I had taken Reyes. I say this in the interest of full disclosure and to make a note that my view of Adam’s pick is not out of anger for not having the opportunity to draft Reyes.

While ADP says he didn’t, I think Adam overvalued Alex Rodriguez. Alex will miss at least six weeks with his injury and will only max out at around 90% (so it has been claimed) for the rest of the season. And if the Yankees are out of it by the end of August, which could really be a possibility if the Rays and Red Sox play like they can, they may tell AROD to cut his season short and get the second surgery he’s going to require. I don’t know if that is a risk I take with my second round pick, even if it is AROD. Secondly, I think he has more value if he were to be taken in rounds three or four. I think he would have fallen at least to the end of round three had he been allowed and at that point would have been made keeper eligible. Picking him in round three or four would have made more sense.

If it is true, as I have heard through the grapevine, that he was drafted to prevent someone else from keeping him, Adam is a fool. Drafting based on keepers in the top three or four rounds is bad enough. Drafting based on PREVENTING people from keeping other players in the top three or four rounds is downright stupid. Someone keeping the likes of AROD does not dictate who does and does not win The Leauge. Ask Tony, who kept Johan Santana, Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols last season and finished in next to last place. There is more to winning this league than one great player. One should draft to win The League rather than try to prevent potential keepers or draft keepers. We play to win The League. WE PLAY TO WIN THE LEAGUE!

Felix Hernandez is way too inconsistent and his team too poor to be drafted in round three. He’s a great young prospect with lots of potential, but he doesn’t deserve third round status. I believe this to be a panic pick since Webb, Halladay, Liriano, Oswalt and Peavy were all off the board by this point. You can look at it as the market placing high value on pitchers if you want I suppose, but I think, in the case of a draft, it means there is excellent value in other places, like, you know, Alex Gordon…………………………

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Vernon Wells. I think Wells is prime for a return to his normal self after terrible 2006 and 2007 campaigns. In 2006 he had the “Payday Hangover” season and in 2007 he had “Over-compensate for Last Year” syndrome that resulted in an injury shortened year. But he did get his power back and had as many RBI’s in 2007 as he did in 2006 in 200 fewer plate appearances. Adam got excellent value here.

Worst:
Adam Wainwright. Not only is Wainwright overrated, but he is extremely overvalued at round six. He has awful strikeout numbers, has injury issues and allows too many base runners and home runs. His 11-3 record last year was more indicative of his division than it was of his talent. I don’t see Wainwright producing at a level in 2009 that would warrant a sixth round selection.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Victor Martinez: Take away a players legs and you’ve seriously damaged that players ceiling. Knee injuries are something that are difficult to overcome if one wants to return to their true self. When you add the wear and tear of the catching position, I believe it to be very difficult that Martinez returns to what he used to be. Assuming a healthy season, I think Martinez is a mid-level catcher.

1B – Chris Duncan/Adam LaRoche: Awful and may possibly the worst first base tandem in all of fantasy this year. And when you consider how deep first base was/is this year, it makes it even harder to believe Adam couldn’t find someone better than these two guys.

2B – Dan Uggla: As stated in his keeper review, Uggla is probably a bottom-half second baseman because of his strikeouts. Unless an act of God takes place, I do not see his strikeout problem being fixed. And with Hanley Ramirez batting third this season, I see Uggla’s production taking a dip as well.

3B – Aubrey Huff: Yet another bad infielder. Adam will site last season and I’ll site the three year trend Huff had going into last season and Huff’s age. Oh, and that Huff sucks.

SS – Jimmy Rollins: Finally, someone good.

LF – Xavier Nady: Aaand back to the sucking. Xavier Nady: Great role player, terrible fantasy starter. If he was a glue piece in Adam’s fantasy team, maybe I could live with it. But as we are seeing, this is not the case.

CF – Curtis Granderson: If Granderson hits his ESPN projection – a projection that is lofty in my opinion – he will finish as the eighth best eligible centerfielder in a ten team league. Not positive. Good thing he didn’t draft Grady Sizemore…

RF – Hunter Pence: Curtis Granderson, the aforementioned eighth best centerfielder in a ten team league, is projected to have 120 more fantasy points than Pence. You can connect the dots on that one. But in case you don’t have the time, those dots when connected spell S-U-C-K-S-A-T-F-A-N-T-A-S-Y. But, hey, at least Pence is projected to get 30 more points than Xavier Nady – at least you don’t have Nady starting for you too, that would suck.

I’m starting to wish I wrote this drunk, this is getting depressing…

UT – Jose Reyes: Hey a second guy who is actually good in fantasy! Yipee!

SP1 – Dan Haren: Second tier guy. Which isn’t a bad thing.

SP2 – Ricky Nolasco: Will be on the DL before July.

SP3 – Felix Hernandez: Will have three great starts to get you pumped and then be mediocre and suffer minor injuries for the rest of the season with little teases in between to keep you honest. You can take that to the bank.

FLEX – Adam Wainwright: Is this a joke? Seriously, did you take this guy just to mock Kimball for taking Joe Saunders in the ninth round? Oh, wait, Wainwright went in the sixth round. So was Kimball mocking you then? Honestly… what were you thinking? You’d rather have him over Raul Ibanez right now? Really?

RP – Bobby Jenks: This horror story doesn’t end, does it? I’ll give you this, at least he’s not J.J. Putz.

RP – B.J. Ryan: Good thing this guy doesn’t have major health issues, otherwise this would be a concern area for you...

RP – Chris Ray: Oh God… Where do you find these guys?

General Thoughts:

While the flashes of Adam’s team look nice (Rollins, Reyes, AROD, Haren, King Felix), the complete team is little more than uninspiring at best.

Sarcastic Statement:

Well, you can go ahead and pencil Adam in for an easy playoff bid. What a draft!

Final Statement

Boom! Roasted!

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Roasted might be an understatement...ouch...that had to hurt.

Andrew

tonester_84 said...

I'm scared for mine.....although I think I drafted well ( with a couple of exceptions)

Anonymous said...

I think Nolasco is one to watch. With Nolasco, Hernandez and Wainright, he has some serious potential with his pitchers. But, as you so delicately pointed out, there are some definite question marks among these players and the rest of his line-up. Some of the players he drafted (Pence, Nady, etc.) just aren't good fantasy players.

Erik

Blown Save said...

This is why you don't brag about your fantasy team on Facebook. I believe the word "stacked" was involved.