Thursday, March 26, 2009

Kept: The Adam Keller Story

Kept Players
Jimmy Rollins (Round 4)
Dan Haren (Round 11)
Dan Uggla (Round 17)
Aubrey Huff (Round 25)
Ricky Nolasco (Round 14)

Last Year’s Record: 9-15
Division: Losers
Season Result: Finished fourth in the Losers Division.

Keeper Decision Scale: 6.5/10

I give Adam a pass for his first year in The League, but he’s not going to get one for his crappy keeper selections… or is he? But first, the good.

The Good:

I cannot argue with taking the first round talent in the fourth round. I’m all for that. I do question ESPN’s projections for him, but that is neither here nor there.

Dan Uggla strikes out a LOT. But I suppose if you want to make sure you get a top five second basemen for a 17th round pick, you can’t go too wrong. I don’t know if I would have kept him, but looking at Adam’s roster, I don’t think there were many other options.

Dan Haren was kept at excellent value. Though I do not think he will repeat last season’s performance, I do think he’s going to get better production out of him than a pitcher he may draft in the eleventh round.

I hate the Aubrey Huff decision, but the positive in that is I have been known to be wrong on occasion.

Ricky Nolasco was an interesting keeper decision. Florida will be down a bit this year, which means they should make the World Series.

The Bad:

Nolasco pitched 212 innings last season, the first time he has done so in his career. It was also the first time he had pitched more than 165 innings in a season. Do the math where I’m going with this.

Aubrey Huff sucks. From 2005 to 2007, Huff had a .778 OPS with declining power each season; given Huff is moving away from his prime (he’ll be 32 this year), assumed regression from what was almost a career year, and Weiters eventual entrance to the lineup, I think it is safe to say he won’t be as good in 2009. Even if he is close to last year’s numbers, he was still only a middle of the road option. I don’t think you keep Huff ahead of some of his other options he had on the table (ie Brian Fuentes or Raul Ibanez – neither of whom, on first and second glance, were drafted last season).

Dan Uggla strikes out a WHOLE lot. So much so that his 77 walks were not enough fantasy points to break even with his strikeouts. Additionally, Uggla was only the 8th best (in a 10 team league I may add) second base eligible player. To put it another way, he only had three more points than Jose Lopez last season. Why not keep the new Angles closer, who you know is going to get a host of saves, for a 15th rounder and take Lopez late in the draft. It seems like a better move to me given the sleeper label that is on Lopez this year.

I cannot knock the Haren and Rollins choices. I think having Rollins in the fourth round alone makes this a better keeper class than some we have discussed.

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