Monday, March 30, 2009

Reviewed: Tony Allen

Team: San Antonio Saints
Owner: Tony Allen
Draft Pick Order: 2nd Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Hanley Ramirez (1)
2 – Roy Oswalt (3)
3 – Kevin Youkilis (3)
4 – Nate McLouth (4)
5 – Vladimir Guerrero (3)
6 – Adrian Gonzalez (4)
7 – Rich Harden (7)
8 – A.J. Burnett (7)
9 – Max Scherzer (12)
10 – Chone Figgins (8)


Thoughts:

I think Tony ended up with the guy who is going to be the number one in fantasy, Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez move to the third spot in the order is going to greatly increase his RBI opportunities and free him to swing for more power as opposed to taking the leadoff approach. He’ll still score a lot of runs with Uggla and Hermida behind him. I don’t think his move to the three hole will affect his speed numbers, but if it does, the added RBI will take care of whatever small drop happens there.

I absolutely hate the Roy Oswalt pick. Well, maybe not as much as I hate other picks in this draft, but I didn’t like it when it happened and I don’t like it several days after the fact. My special little ESPN Adjusted deal has him as a fringe 3rd/4th round pick, so taking him at the end of the second round is enough of a reach to make me somewhat angry. I’m not saying the guy suck, look at the man’s production from 2004 to 2008. My problem with this pick is that I believe it is the one that set off the pitching panic. After Francisco Liriano was stupidly taken in the second round, things seemed to calm down a little. Liriano was followed by Manny Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard. Normalcy had returned. A sense of “hey, there are not any pitchers of second round value here, but there sure are a lot of good hitters out there” entered the draft. And then Tony took Roy Owsalt two rounds too early and all hell broke loose. All of the mid-range guys immediately came off the board: Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez, John Lackey and Jon Lester. Everybody decided to take round five to regroup and figure out what pitchers were available and that started The Great Pitching Panic of ’09 when half a trillion pitchers were unjustifiably taken between rounds six and 10. I think the psyche of the draft was affected by the Oswalt pick. I think people still felt like there were some good mid-range guys who would be there in rounds five, six and seven that would balance everything else. Instead the likes of Adam Wainwright (what the hell was Keller thinking?), Kevin Slowey, Max Scherzer (another Allen pick), Joe Saunders, Gil Meche, David Price and Brett Myers were taken. What a disaster.

I like the Adrian Gonzalez pick at round six and, though I don’t think he is the same player as he used to be, I like the value Allen received in the fifth round for Vladimir Guerrero. I am not a fan of Nate McLouth repeating his 2008 season and probably would have gone a different direction in round four – maybe Bobby Abreu would have been a better pick there.

A.J. Burnett and Rich Harden are “Boom or Bust” candidates. I think Tony’s season will be defined by these two players health. Both are going to win games and strikeout a ton of people in they can stay healthy, which is a big “if”. Burnett does have issues with his control and Harden has been known to give up the long ball in addition to walking a lot of batters. Harden has only one season in his six major league seasons where he has surpassed 150 innings pitched. It is things like this that make me believe Allen’s bet will not pay off, but you never know.

Oh, and what the hell were you thinking drafting Max Scherzer in the ninth round?!?! Honestly, what were you thinking? Honestly, the guy was being picked in regular drafts in the 16th round amongst such gaudy names as Rick Ankiel, Mike Aviles and Pablo Sandoval. Really, what were you thinking? I’m not saying the kid won’t be good this season, but you took him insanely too early.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
David Ortiz. In the first year of this league, I remember taking Barry Bonds in round 17ish a year removed from his leg injury. It paid off very nicely for me as he had a 1.045 OPS and nearly walked three times per every strikeout. Is was a big supplement to my outfield that helped me get to the championship game. I think David Ortiz can be that guy for Tony in round 17. J.D. Drew in round 25 is also very interesting assuming he has a full season.

Worst:
Max Scherzer. I still don’t get that pick. Really, I don’t get it, why did you do that? Please tell me.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Mike Napoli: Mike hit 20 home runs in 227 at-bats in an injury shortened season. At least you know the pop is there if he is on the field. Mike also had 70 strikeouts last season so that’s not good.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez: If Adrian played anywhere other than PetCo, he would have 40 homers a season and be one of the most salivated over fantasy players every year. Instead he just hits 30 homers with 100 RBI and 100 runs, so, naturally, he falls to round six. Question: Would you rather have Adrian Gonzalez or Adam Wainwright with your sixth round pick? Gonzalez or Robinson Cano? Gonzalez or Johnny Damon? Gonzalez or John Lackey or Jon Lester? Adam, you don’t get to vote.

2B – Dustin Pedroia: Well, that’s nice.

3B – Kevin Youkilis: It should be noted that Tony has four Red Sox and three Cardinals on his team.

SS – Hanley Ramirez: I think a legitiment argument could be made that Tony has the best infield of anybody in The League. I don’t know if this is true yet, but I’m leaning that way at the moment.

LF – Ryan Ludwick: Wow, talk about a talent drop off. Sheesh.

CF – Nate McLouth: As I’ve stated already, I do not believe McLouth will be the same player as he was last season. I really don’t.

RF – Jacoby Ellsbury: The guy is so good the Red Sox chose to start Coco Crisp over him in the playoffs. Keep that in mind.

UT – Vladimir Guerrero: 1998-2006 averages: 36 HR, 112 RBI, .327/.393/.590 – 151 OPS+
2007-2008 averages: 27 HR, 108 RBI, .314/.385/.535 – 140

I show this to note two things: One, Vlad is REALLY good and, two, Vlad is starting to lose his power, but is still really good. Just a note.

SP1 – Edinson Volquez: 1st Half: 117.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, .212 BAA, 5 HR allowed
2nd Half: 78.1 IP, 4.60 ERA, .260 BAA, 9 HR allowed

Oh, and would this be a bad time to mention he pitched 52 more innings than his previous career high and 162 more innings than his previous MLB high in what will be his fifth MLB season in 2009? No? Oh, I’m sorry.

SP2 – Roy Oswalt: Already discussed him.

SP3 – A.J. Burnett: Burnett has 10 major league seasons and has had 26 or more starts in only four of them. I wanted to make that note for injury purposes. Burnett also has only two seasons where he averaged less than 3.5 walks per nine innings. I wanted to make that point to show his control issues. Have I mentioned his home run issues yet?

FLEX – Rich Harden: He will spend more time on the DL than he does here.

RP – Frank Francisco: Assuming he doesn’t throw any chairs at any fans he should be above average for Tony, though he will not get many saves.

RP – Manny Corpas: Doesn’t strikeout nearly enough people to be relevant.

RP – Todd Wellemeyer: Ugh… What a terrible relief core.

General Thoughts:

Tony has an excellent infield, but his holes in the outfield, bullpen and starting rotation are going to be too much for him to overcome.

Sarcastic Statement:

Keeping Colby Rasmus and drafting two Cardinals – Ryan Ludwick and Todd Wellemeyer – are going to be looked upon as the three most important moves Tony made to build a winning fantasy team.

Final Statement

Normally I would say that with a few savvy moves you could put yourself in a good position to make the playoffs, but because this is Tony we are talking about… I doubt that happens.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

2 comments:

tonester_84 said...

Ill show you sir! I'll show everyone!!

I don't know what I'll show yet. But you have been warned.....it's comin'

Anonymous said...

By the way...thanks for winning me the league last year Tony!

And youre welcome for your keeper that will break down before the All-Star break.

However...nice infield. And I can tell youre getting better at this fantasy thing. Now if you would only pay attention in basketball your team wouldnt only score 300 points in a week.

Andrew