Kept: The Erik Johnson Story

Kept Players
Tim Lincecum (Round 14)
Cole Hamels (Round 20)
Chad Billingsley (Round 8)
Josh Beckett (Round 15)
Prince Fielder (Round 13)

Last Year’s Record: 18-6
Division: Winners
Season Result: Division Winner and The League Runner-up

Keeper Decision Scale: 7.5/10

After the last two seasons, it would be hard to criticize Erik’s risk taking on young pitchers. But because I’m writing this post, you know I’ll find something. Before we get to that, here is what Erik did right.

The Good:
Unlike Andrew, Erik took advantage of his strength and what made his team good last season: His young starting pitching. The four-headed monster that is Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley will be tough for any team to match. Erik is going to feel quite nicely about have four to eight starts a week from those four guys. All four pitchers strikeout batters at a very high rate and all produce a lot of quality innings, which should play well to this year’s scoring system.

Prince Fielder provides something Erik has lacked the last two seasons: A solid fantasy bat. Last year, Erik depended mostly on the production from Adam Dunn, who while he hits a ton of home runs and drawls 100 walks, also strikes out 200 times and has another 200 production-less fantasy at-bats. Fielder is a more consistent player, who does not strike out at the same rate and has more productive at-bats. Having his rotation set should help Erik figure out his offensive woes early in the draft.

The Bad:
Injuries, injuries, injuries.

The is a growing thought processes, and evidence to go with it, that suggest that the farther a young pitcher goes over his previous career high in innings pitched, the more likely he is to get hurt the following season. The magic number is about 20 innings. The farther away you get from 20 innings, the higher injury risk you are placing on said pitcher.

An example would Fausto Carmona. Carmona threw 75 innings his rookie year in 2006 and followed that up by pitching 215 innings in 2007. Needless to say, injuries were an issue last season.

Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels and Chad Billingsley are all dangerously flirting with this injury theory.

Lincecum pitched 81 more innings (227 IP) in 2008 than he did in 2007 (146). He only pitched 63 total innings in his two years in the minors, but did throw significantly more innings in college. Include his already violent pitching motion and the general theory of “20” and Lincecum could be, at least, looking at a 2008 Justin Verlander-type season.

Cole Hamels also has had a lot of mileage on him in his first three season. Last season alone he threw 262 innings when his postseason innings are included. In the last two years, he’s thrown a total of 461 innings. This is a large workload for a guy who is just turning 25. Hamels would be a prime candidate for a 2008 JV season, if not an injury plagued one.

Chad Billingsley surpassed his career high by 40 innings last year. In 2006 he pitch 161 innings, 20 more than his previous high, between AAA and the majors and threw 147 the next season in an injury plagued year. In 2008 he threw 200 innings. I’d expect a trip to the disabled list for Billingsley this season.

We all know about Josh Beckett’s injury issues.

Prince Fielder may be a concern if the Brewers get to far out of the race by the end of July. Fielder has already expressed his dislike for the Brewers and may not feel the need to try very hard if the Brewers have nothing to play for. Fielder has also been a slow starter in his first two years in the bigs.

Assuming health, Erik has one of the best pitching situations in The League. If he can add one or two more high end arms in the draft, he will be looking very nice in his quest for a third-straight title game appearance.