Reviewed: Kyle Morris

Team: A-Roids
Owner: Kyle Morris
Draft Pick Order: 5th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Mark Teixeira (1)
2 – Manny Ramirez (2)
3 – John Lackey (4)
4 – B.J. Upton (3)
5 – Alfonso Soriano (Kept)
6 – Rafael Furcal (5)
7 – Scott Kazmir (7)
8 – Matt Cain (10)
9 – Matt Garza (11)
10 – Adrian Beltre (8)

Thoughts:

Mark Teixeira over Miguel Cabrera was a bad decision in my opinion. I’m going to avoid the statistical comparisons and simplify the argument with this: One does not take risks with their first round pick. Why was the Teixeira pick a risk? The beast that is the New York Yankees.

Look, one knows the upside and down side of drafting Miguel Cabrera. In his first full year in Detroit, Cabrera set career highs in home runs and runs batted in and in the second half of the season hit 21 homers and posted a .951OPS. He has clearly has figured out the learning curve of the league and proven he can hit in the large confines of Comerica Park. Teixeira has proven nothing in terms of how he’ll handle the New York pressure. And with AROD out the first six weeks, all the pressure will be on him to produce. I don’t know what is going to happen to him if the Yankees get off to a slow start.

I’m not saying Teixeira sucks or that he won’t be good this season. The problem is that I don’t know how good he’ll be, but I know I have a solid idea of what Cabrera will do. That’s why I would have picked Cabrera there and avoided the risk.

With that said, I do like the Manny, Upton and Kazmir picks. I’m most impressed that he managed to get Kazmir in the round he was supposed to get him. I figured Kazmir must have gone in round two the way pitching was coming off the board. Kazmir could become an interesting keeper prospect if he continues to improve and as he enters the prime of his career. The kid led the Rays in strike outs despite pitching 60 fewer innings than James Shields for crying out loud.

Matt Cain is an interesting pick to me just because of the devaluation of losses this season. He strikes out (and walks) a ton, but has the worst luck ever. Trust me on this, I’ve had him at some point the last two seasons.

With this said, Kyle managed to navigate the horrific 6 through 10 rounds without making too many disastrous picks. While Cain and Garza were overvalued, their question marks are far fewer than what some of the other decisions made around The League.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Fausto Carmona, Andy Pettitte and Matt Weiters. Carmona: A steal in round 20 if he returns to 2007 status; If not, it was a worthwhile risk. Pettitte: Should pad his stats as the fourth starter in that rotation and will outplay his round 22 value. Weiters: Because Kyle may be the only person in fantasy this year to not overdraft him.

Worst:
Rafael Furcal: Two words for him: Mike Sweeney. I do not trust people with back issues and I certainly don’t trust them in the sixth round (even if he was taken bellow value there).

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Ryan Doumit: I do not see him being the guy he was last year, but, given what was available, it wasn’t a terrible pick and he didn’t overvalue him.

1B – Mark Teixeira: Already said my peace on him.

2B – Mike Aviles: He will drop off from last season, the question is how much? He is an intriguing keeper prospect though if he puts together another nice season. I’d rather have him than Dan Uggla.

3B – Adrian Beltre: Strikeouts and injuries have caused me to not be a very big fan of Beltre. I would have gone a different direction in round 10 and taken a third baseman latter in the draft. There wouldn’t much difference between that guy and what Beltre will do this season anyway.

SS – Rafael Furcal: Mike Sweeney…..

LF – Manny Ramirez: I’m curious to see how happy he will be after the way this offseason went down.

CF – B.J. Upton: Upton was more valuable last season because he qualified at second base. He is not so valuable this year stuck in centerfield. The x-factor in that is if he carries over his power from October into this season.

RF – Magglio Ordonez: I gave my thoughts about him in the keeper blog. Something to add is the possibility he gets traded mid-season. Stating the obvious: A trade will clearly have a big impact on his value depending on where he goes.

UT – Alfonso Soriano: I imagine Jason Bay will see more time here as the season progresses.

SP1 – John Lackey: DL’ed.

SP2 – Matt Cain: The kid will flirt with 200 strikeouts this season and maybe 250 if he can figure out a way to manage his pitch count.

SP3 – Matt Garza: He has mediocre strikeout numbers, but will put up consistent fantasy points, which is more than I can say about most of the guys taken in rounds 6 through 10.

FLEX – Scott Kazmir: If he can go a full 32 starts and get around 200 innings, I’m convinced he will reach 275 strikeouts.

RP – Joakim Soria: The Mexicutioner!!!

RP – Heath Bell: The guy being executed by the Mexicutioner!!!

RP – Matt Lindstrom: So bad (at fantasy) he’s not even worth being executed.

General Thoughts:

Kyle did a good job of staying within value and putting together some good pieces. But a bad set of keepers, some bad early luck (Ervin Santana and John Lackey) and too many question marks leaves him staring down a .500 season.

Sarcastic Statement:

Kyle must be soooo glad he reached for John Lackey in the third round. Oh well, at least he has Ervin Santana!

Final Statement

Matt Weiters will have a below average rookie season, prompting Kyle to not keep him for 2010. Weiters will then be taken in the 22 round by someone and become an absolute fantasy stud. Or maybe not…

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Jason Willey

Team: Krunk Smurfs
Owner: Jason Willey
Draft Pick Order: 3rd Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – David Wright (1)
2 – Ryan Howard (1)
3 – Jake Peavy (3)
4 – Matt Kemp (2)
5 – Joe Mauer (4)
6 – Derek Jeter (4)
7 – Kevin Slowey (11)
8 – Justin Verlander (11)
9 – Brian Fuentes (8)
10 – Mark DeRosa (10)

Thoughts:

In terms of value, Jason’s first six picks were very nice. While I do not consider Jeter a good fantasy player anymore, taking him two rounds later than where he was going to go is very acceptable. Jake Peavy was one of the more sane high round picks and the decision to take David Wright over Jose Reyes was a wise one.

What he was think, then, when he got to round seven baffles me. Kevin Slowey? Round seven? What is more confusing is that he took a decisively better pitcher in the next round. I think this perfectly explains the draft. If someone asked me to explain the draft, I’d say look at Jason’s seventh and then eighth round picks and try to determine the logic used there. Rounds six through 10 were just insane and I think these picks encapsulate that fact.

Mark DeRosa in the 10th round seems strange to me. It is odd that a utility player goes in the top 10 rounds, but he did. I wonder what DeRosa will be like playing every day at second base in Cleveland. For the Royals sake I hope he sucks.

One thing that is going to be true about Jason’s team is he is going to strikeout a ton. Here are some of the 2008 strikeout totals from some of the players he drafted and kept (walks in parenthesis):

Ryan Howard: 199 (81)
Mark DeRosa: 106 (69)
David Wright: 118 (94)
Adam Dunn: 164 (122)
Jay Bruce: 110 (33)
Matt Kemp: 153 (46)
Justin Upton: 121 (54)
Luke Scott: 102 (53)

If you are counting at home, that’s eight of Jason’s 15 hitters that struck out 100 times or more last season. Only Joe Mauer walked more than he struck out last season.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
There are three picks that I really like from Jason: Justin Upton (14), Adam Dunn (13), Jim Thome (19).
I like the Thome pick simply based on value. Thome is in his final season with the White Sox and you wonder if he won’t be playing for one last big payday. Plus, the ball flies out of U.S. Cellular Field. I like the Upton pick because of his upside. If this is Upton’s breakout year and he becomes the player that many think he can be, he will be of excellent value at round 14. If not, Jason didn’t really lose anything there. Adam Dunn equals Ryan Howard only Howard gets more respect because he plays for a better team (I guess).

Ryan Howard (last two seasons average): .259/.364/.562, 94 BB, 199 K, 133 OPS+
Adam Dunn (last two seasons average): .250/.386/.533, 111 BB, 164 K, 133 OPS+

(This thought leads me to a Royals post that I’m going to throw up on the blog sometime.)

Worst:
Kevin Slowey. Why? Just… why?

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Joe Mauer: His health concerns me. Of course, if he is healthy, he is a top three catcher.

1B – Ryan Howard: The dude is going to strike out… a ton. Better hope he walks enough to offset the strikeouts or else some of his home runs are going to go towards canceling out his whiffs and not supplementing his fantasy points.

2B – Mark DeRosa: I don’t know what an everyday Mark DeRosa looks like. I’ve got to wonder when fatigue sets in as well as how quickly he’ll adjust to the American League.

3B – David Wright: Equals fantasy stud.

SS – Derek Jeter: I don’t like Derek Jeter as a player and I don’t like him in fantasy.* There you go.

*I would love him as a player if he didn’t play for the Yankees.

LF – Adam Dunn: The Ryan Howard clone. Did you know that Dunn has hit at least 40 home runs and walked 100 times in five straight seasons? Just sayin’…

CF – Jay Bruce: Jason better hope Bruce improves his discipline at the plate or else this is going to be a long year for him in centerfield.

RF – Andre Ethier: A nice glue piece with a weird last name.

UT – Matt Kemp: Jason likes him some Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospects doesn’t he? Actually, he likes outfield prospects in general it seems. Three of his four outfielders that are starting are all prospect-type guys.

SP1 – Clayton Kershaw: Still a year or two away from being fantasy relevant.

SP2 – Jake Peavy: It should be interesting to see if he gets traded by the deadline. That certainly was a good thing for CC Sabathia. You wonder what kind of effect it will have on Peavy.

SP3 – Kevin Slowey: Ugh…

FLEX – Johnny Cueto: A disastrous keeper selection especially given the ballpark.

RP – Brad Lidge: I don’t know how much to trust last season, but is certainly an excellent closer if he has truly rebounded from being Pujolsed.

RP – Matt Capps: He won’t get you a lot of strikeouts, but he should post 30 plus saves even for a bad Pirates team.

RP – Brian Fuentes: A very nice strikeout pitcher who will receive a ton of save opportunities playing for the Angels.

General Thoughts:

Strikeouts will be the achilies heel for Jason, but he should be rewarded for not falling into the pitching trap in the first six rounds. The Slowey pick still sucks, but the Verlander pick should redeem him.

Sarcastic Statement:

Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn have made excellent strides this offseason in making more contact to reduce their strikeouts and Kevin Slowey is a true fantasy stud in the making.

Final Statement

Jason is going to have to make a few moves if he wants his team to make the playoffs, but we all know that won’t happen. What may be his saving grace is that he’ll be in the Losers Division and may be able to sneak out a few more victories than he should.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Tony Allen

Team: San Antonio Saints
Owner: Tony Allen
Draft Pick Order: 2nd Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Hanley Ramirez (1)
2 – Roy Oswalt (3)
3 – Kevin Youkilis (3)
4 – Nate McLouth (4)
5 – Vladimir Guerrero (3)
6 – Adrian Gonzalez (4)
7 – Rich Harden (7)
8 – A.J. Burnett (7)
9 – Max Scherzer (12)
10 – Chone Figgins (8)

Thoughts:

I think Tony ended up with the guy who is going to be the number one in fantasy, Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez move to the third spot in the order is going to greatly increase his RBI opportunities and free him to swing for more power as opposed to taking the leadoff approach. He’ll still score a lot of runs with Uggla and Hermida behind him. I don’t think his move to the three hole will affect his speed numbers, but if it does, the added RBI will take care of whatever small drop happens there.

I absolutely hate the Roy Oswalt pick. Well, maybe not as much as I hate other picks in this draft, but I didn’t like it when it happened and I don’t like it several days after the fact. My special little ESPN Adjusted deal has him as a fringe 3rd/4th round pick, so taking him at the end of the second round is enough of a reach to make me somewhat angry. I’m not saying the guy suck, look at the man’s production from 2004 to 2008. My problem with this pick is that I believe it is the one that set off the pitching panic. After Francisco Liriano was stupidly taken in the second round, things seemed to calm down a little. Liriano was followed by Manny Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard. Normalcy had returned. A sense of “hey, there are not any pitchers of second round value here, but there sure are a lot of good hitters out there” entered the draft. And then Tony took Roy Owsalt two rounds too early and all hell broke loose. All of the mid-range guys immediately came off the board: Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez, John Lackey and Jon Lester. Everybody decided to take round five to regroup and figure out what pitchers were available and that started The Great Pitching Panic of ’09 when half a trillion pitchers were unjustifiably taken between rounds six and 10. I think the psyche of the draft was affected by the Oswalt pick. I think people still felt like there were some good mid-range guys who would be there in rounds five, six and seven that would balance everything else. Instead the likes of Adam Wainwright (what the hell was Keller thinking?), Kevin Slowey, Max Scherzer (another Allen pick), Joe Saunders, Gil Meche, David Price and Brett Myers were taken. What a disaster.

I like the Adrian Gonzalez pick at round six and, though I don’t think he is the same player as he used to be, I like the value Allen received in the fifth round for Vladimir Guerrero. I am not a fan of Nate McLouth repeating his 2008 season and probably would have gone a different direction in round four – maybe Bobby Abreu would have been a better pick there.

A.J. Burnett and Rich Harden are “Boom or Bust” candidates. I think Tony’s season will be defined by these two players health. Both are going to win games and strikeout a ton of people in they can stay healthy, which is a big “if”. Burnett does have issues with his control and Harden has been known to give up the long ball in addition to walking a lot of batters. Harden has only one season in his six major league seasons where he has surpassed 150 innings pitched. It is things like this that make me believe Allen’s bet will not pay off, but you never know.

Oh, and what the hell were you thinking drafting Max Scherzer in the ninth round?!?! Honestly, what were you thinking? Honestly, the guy was being picked in regular drafts in the 16th round amongst such gaudy names as Rick Ankiel, Mike Aviles and Pablo Sandoval. Really, what were you thinking? I’m not saying the kid won’t be good this season, but you took him insanely too early.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
David Ortiz. In the first year of this league, I remember taking Barry Bonds in round 17ish a year removed from his leg injury. It paid off very nicely for me as he had a 1.045 OPS and nearly walked three times per every strikeout. Is was a big supplement to my outfield that helped me get to the championship game. I think David Ortiz can be that guy for Tony in round 17. J.D. Drew in round 25 is also very interesting assuming he has a full season.

Worst:
Max Scherzer. I still don’t get that pick. Really, I don’t get it, why did you do that? Please tell me.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Mike Napoli: Mike hit 20 home runs in 227 at-bats in an injury shortened season. At least you know the pop is there if he is on the field. Mike also had 70 strikeouts last season so that’s not good.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez: If Adrian played anywhere other than PetCo, he would have 40 homers a season and be one of the most salivated over fantasy players every year. Instead he just hits 30 homers with 100 RBI and 100 runs, so, naturally, he falls to round six. Question: Would you rather have Adrian Gonzalez or Adam Wainwright with your sixth round pick? Gonzalez or Robinson Cano? Gonzalez or Johnny Damon? Gonzalez or John Lackey or Jon Lester? Adam, you don’t get to vote.

2B – Dustin Pedroia: Well, that’s nice.

3B – Kevin Youkilis: It should be noted that Tony has four Red Sox and three Cardinals on his team.

SS – Hanley Ramirez: I think a legitiment argument could be made that Tony has the best infield of anybody in The League. I don’t know if this is true yet, but I’m leaning that way at the moment.

LF – Ryan Ludwick: Wow, talk about a talent drop off. Sheesh.

CF – Nate McLouth: As I’ve stated already, I do not believe McLouth will be the same player as he was last season. I really don’t.

RF – Jacoby Ellsbury: The guy is so good the Red Sox chose to start Coco Crisp over him in the playoffs. Keep that in mind.

UT – Vladimir Guerrero: 1998-2006 averages: 36 HR, 112 RBI, .327/.393/.590 – 151 OPS+
2007-2008 averages: 27 HR, 108 RBI, .314/.385/.535 – 140

I show this to note two things: One, Vlad is REALLY good and, two, Vlad is starting to lose his power, but is still really good. Just a note.

SP1 – Edinson Volquez: 1st Half: 117.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, .212 BAA, 5 HR allowed
2nd Half: 78.1 IP, 4.60 ERA, .260 BAA, 9 HR allowed

Oh, and would this be a bad time to mention he pitched 52 more innings than his previous career high and 162 more innings than his previous MLB high in what will be his fifth MLB season in 2009? No? Oh, I’m sorry.

SP2 – Roy Oswalt: Already discussed him.

SP3 – A.J. Burnett: Burnett has 10 major league seasons and has had 26 or more starts in only four of them. I wanted to make that note for injury purposes. Burnett also has only two seasons where he averaged less than 3.5 walks per nine innings. I wanted to make that point to show his control issues. Have I mentioned his home run issues yet?

FLEX – Rich Harden: He will spend more time on the DL than he does here.

RP – Frank Francisco: Assuming he doesn’t throw any chairs at any fans he should be above average for Tony, though he will not get many saves.

RP – Manny Corpas: Doesn’t strikeout nearly enough people to be relevant.

RP – Todd Wellemeyer: Ugh… What a terrible relief core.

General Thoughts:

Tony has an excellent infield, but his holes in the outfield, bullpen and starting rotation are going to be too much for him to overcome.

Sarcastic Statement:

Keeping Colby Rasmus and drafting two Cardinals – Ryan Ludwick and Todd Wellemeyer – are going to be looked upon as the three most important moves Tony made to build a winning fantasy team.

Final Statement

Normally I would say that with a few savvy moves you could put yourself in a good position to make the playoffs, but because this is Tony we are talking about… I doubt that happens.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Jeff Weseloh

Team: Flying Monkeys
Owner: Jeff Weseloh
Draft Pick Order: 1st Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Albert Pujols (1)
2 – Aramis Ramirez (3)
3 – Carlos Beltran (3)
4 – Lance Berkman (Kept)
5 – Johnny Damon (6)
6 – Daisuke Matsuzaka (6)
7 – Garrett Atkins (6)
8 – Ian Kinsler (8)
9 – Erik Bedard (13)
10 – Aaron Harang (14)

Thoughts:

And you were doing so well until you got to rounds nine and ten...

I hate the Damon pick, but that is more of my opinion of him getting old, regressing and sucking that is influencing that.

The Bedard and Harang picks I take issue with. Aside from them being overvalued, neither of them pitch in situations that really make me feel good about them. Harang pitches in a sandbox that sees routine fly balls turn into 500 foot home runs. He saw a huge dip in his strikeouts last year and has pitched almost 900 innings in the last four seasons. There is a lot to not like about Harang without the whole ninth round status attached to him.

Bedard pitches for a terrible team, it’s as simple as that. He had injury issues last year and has never pitched over 200 innings in a season. Additionally, he really only has one good season in his career (2007) which happened to coincide with his one good strikeout season. Bedard would have made more sense as an overdraft in round 12, maybe 11.

I love the Beltran pick. It is striking to me how Beltran had the third highest fantasy point total last season, but everyone decided to let him slide to the third round. But, hey, at least Joel got Liriano three rounds too high!

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best: 

David DeJesus. Because at round 21, he is projected to score more points than Adam Keller’s catcher, first baseman, left fielder and right fielder (not combined) and is only three points short of his kept second baseman Dan Uggla. Normally this would be a compliment, but actually it is more of slam on Adam’s “stacked” fantasy team. (Boom! Roasted again!)

In all seriousness, I like the Chris Carpenter and Travis Snider picks. But I don’t have anything to say about them other than the obvious so I’m going to leave that there.

Worst:
I can’t decide between Johnny Damon, Erik Bedard or Aaron Harang… Let’s just go all three! But, hey, at least two-thirds of your outfield and half of your infield isn’t projected to score fewer fantasy points than someone else’s 21st round pick like someone else I know…

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – John Baker: My early thoughts are he sucks. Those will probably reflect my latter thoughts as well.

1B – Lance Berkman: You know, looking back on the draft, keeping Berkman for a 4th rounder seems stupid since you probably could have drafted him in the 20th round the way pitching was going. None the less you have a solid first baseman.

2B – Ian Kinsler: If he stays healthy and Utley does not, you have the number one second baseman in fantasy.

3B – Aramis Ramirez: One of the better third basemen in a shallow third base class.

SS – Michael Young: Young’s transition to third base gives me concern as to his fantasy value this season and in seasons to come.

LF – Johnny Damon: Already discussed my disgusting thoughts on him.

CF – Carlos Beltran: Him too.

RF – Jermaine Dye: He’s the wildcard for you this year. If he stays healthy and does not regress too much, he could be the key piece to put you over the top into the playoffs.

UT – Albert Pujols: I hate the Cardinals, but Pujols still holds the number spot in the greatest home runs I’ve ever seen live in person or on TV. That was insane.

SP1 – Zack Greinke: Worst case scenario he’s an above average guy for you. Best case: He wins the Cy Young.

SP2 – Daisuke Matsuzaka: Most overrated and overvalued fantasy pitcher in this league, period.

SP3 – Erik Bedard: Yeah…

FLEX – Justin Duchscherer: That’s not good either…

RP – Francisco Cordero: Well this is going downhill fast.

RP – Brandon Morrow: When your best reliever is a starter, that’s not good.

RP – Joel Hanrahan: Say “Hanrahan” five times fast. Not possible without saying "hand" at least twice. Note: I have no idea who this guy is.

General Thoughts:
This was not a bad draft. I don’t think it will win you the league, but I don’t think it will lose it for you either. Being in the Losers Division is going to help you.

Sarcastic Statement:

Adam most definitely has your team beat just with his stacked outfield alone.

Final Statement

Carlos Beltran would have been a better third round keeper than AROD had AROD dropped to the third round.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Adam Keller

Team: Viva El Birdos
Owner: Adam Keller
Draft Pick Order: 4th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Jose Reyes (1)
2 – Alex Rodriguez (2)
3 – Felix Hernandez (5)
4 – Jimmy Rollins (Kept)
5 – Curtis Granderson (4)
6 – Adam Wainwright (8)
7 – Bobby Jenks (8)
8 – Hunter Pence (6)
9 – Carlos Zambrano (9)
10 – B.J. Ryan (9)

Thoughts:

I do not understand the Jose Reyes strategy from Adam when he already has Jimmy Rollins on his roster. I get the best player available idea, but I don’t know if that was the best thing for him to do for his team.** Drafting Reyes was essentially drafting a Utility player with your first pick. I think Adam would have been better served taking Miguel Cabrera or Grady Sizemore and having two top player at two positions as opposed having two top players at one position. I think depth in the lineup is important. Additionally, filling out an utility spot is going to be a lot easier than filling out holes in specific positions - like centerfield. Adam certainly has trade bait in Rollins or Reyes, but again, do really want to be drafting trade bait with the fourth overall pick in the draft?

**It should be noted that I did pick after Keller, and did plan on picking Reyes if he fell to me. But I am equally as happy with my actual pick, Grady Sizemore, as I would have been if I had taken Reyes. I say this in the interest of full disclosure and to make a note that my view of Adam’s pick is not out of anger for not having the opportunity to draft Reyes.

While ADP says he didn’t, I think Adam overvalued Alex Rodriguez. Alex will miss at least six weeks with his injury and will only max out at around 90% (so it has been claimed) for the rest of the season. And if the Yankees are out of it by the end of August, which could really be a possibility if the Rays and Red Sox play like they can, they may tell AROD to cut his season short and get the second surgery he’s going to require. I don’t know if that is a risk I take with my second round pick, even if it is AROD. Secondly, I think he has more value if he were to be taken in rounds three or four. I think he would have fallen at least to the end of round three had he been allowed and at that point would have been made keeper eligible. Picking him in round three or four would have made more sense.

If it is true, as I have heard through the grapevine, that he was drafted to prevent someone else from keeping him, Adam is a fool. Drafting based on keepers in the top three or four rounds is bad enough. Drafting based on PREVENTING people from keeping other players in the top three or four rounds is downright stupid. Someone keeping the likes of AROD does not dictate who does and does not win The Leauge. Ask Tony, who kept Johan Santana, Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols last season and finished in next to last place. There is more to winning this league than one great player. One should draft to win The League rather than try to prevent potential keepers or draft keepers. We play to win The League. WE PLAY TO WIN THE LEAGUE!

Felix Hernandez is way too inconsistent and his team too poor to be drafted in round three. He’s a great young prospect with lots of potential, but he doesn’t deserve third round status. I believe this to be a panic pick since Webb, Halladay, Liriano, Oswalt and Peavy were all off the board by this point. You can look at it as the market placing high value on pitchers if you want I suppose, but I think, in the case of a draft, it means there is excellent value in other places, like, you know, Alex Gordon…………………………

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Vernon Wells. I think Wells is prime for a return to his normal self after terrible 2006 and 2007 campaigns. In 2006 he had the “Payday Hangover” season and in 2007 he had “Over-compensate for Last Year” syndrome that resulted in an injury shortened year. But he did get his power back and had as many RBI’s in 2007 as he did in 2006 in 200 fewer plate appearances. Adam got excellent value here.

Worst:
Adam Wainwright. Not only is Wainwright overrated, but he is extremely overvalued at round six. He has awful strikeout numbers, has injury issues and allows too many base runners and home runs. His 11-3 record last year was more indicative of his division than it was of his talent. I don’t see Wainwright producing at a level in 2009 that would warrant a sixth round selection.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Victor Martinez: Take away a players legs and you’ve seriously damaged that players ceiling. Knee injuries are something that are difficult to overcome if one wants to return to their true self. When you add the wear and tear of the catching position, I believe it to be very difficult that Martinez returns to what he used to be. Assuming a healthy season, I think Martinez is a mid-level catcher.

1B – Chris Duncan/Adam LaRoche: Awful and may possibly the worst first base tandem in all of fantasy this year. And when you consider how deep first base was/is this year, it makes it even harder to believe Adam couldn’t find someone better than these two guys.

2B – Dan Uggla: As stated in his keeper review, Uggla is probably a bottom-half second baseman because of his strikeouts. Unless an act of God takes place, I do not see his strikeout problem being fixed. And with Hanley Ramirez batting third this season, I see Uggla’s production taking a dip as well.

3B – Aubrey Huff: Yet another bad infielder. Adam will site last season and I’ll site the three year trend Huff had going into last season and Huff’s age. Oh, and that Huff sucks.

SS – Jimmy Rollins: Finally, someone good.

LF – Xavier Nady: Aaand back to the sucking. Xavier Nady: Great role player, terrible fantasy starter. If he was a glue piece in Adam’s fantasy team, maybe I could live with it. But as we are seeing, this is not the case.

CF – Curtis Granderson: If Granderson hits his ESPN projection – a projection that is lofty in my opinion – he will finish as the eighth best eligible centerfielder in a ten team league. Not positive. Good thing he didn’t draft Grady Sizemore…

RF – Hunter Pence: Curtis Granderson, the aforementioned eighth best centerfielder in a ten team league, is projected to have 120 more fantasy points than Pence. You can connect the dots on that one. But in case you don’t have the time, those dots when connected spell S-U-C-K-S-A-T-F-A-N-T-A-S-Y. But, hey, at least Pence is projected to get 30 more points than Xavier Nady – at least you don’t have Nady starting for you too, that would suck.

I’m starting to wish I wrote this drunk, this is getting depressing…

UT – Jose Reyes: Hey a second guy who is actually good in fantasy! Yipee!

SP1 – Dan Haren: Second tier guy. Which isn’t a bad thing.

SP2 – Ricky Nolasco: Will be on the DL before July.

SP3 – Felix Hernandez: Will have three great starts to get you pumped and then be mediocre and suffer minor injuries for the rest of the season with little teases in between to keep you honest. You can take that to the bank.

FLEX – Adam Wainwright: Is this a joke? Seriously, did you take this guy just to mock Kimball for taking Joe Saunders in the ninth round? Oh, wait, Wainwright went in the sixth round. So was Kimball mocking you then? Honestly… what were you thinking? You’d rather have him over Raul Ibanez right now? Really?

RP – Bobby Jenks: This horror story doesn’t end, does it? I’ll give you this, at least he’s not J.J. Putz.

RP – B.J. Ryan: Good thing this guy doesn’t have major health issues, otherwise this would be a concern area for you...

RP – Chris Ray: Oh God… Where do you find these guys?

General Thoughts:

While the flashes of Adam’s team look nice (Rollins, Reyes, AROD, Haren, King Felix), the complete team is little more than uninspiring at best.

Sarcastic Statement:

Well, you can go ahead and pencil Adam in for an easy playoff bid. What a draft!

Final Statement

Boom! Roasted!

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Kept: The Kyle Morris Story

Kept Players
Magglio Ordonez (Round 16)
Ervin Santana (Round 24)
Jason Bay (Round 18)
Joakim Soria (Round 17)
Alfonso Soriano (Round 5)

Last Year’s Record: 13-11
Division: Losers
Season Result: Finished third in the Losers Division.

Keeper Decision Scale: 3.5/10

Kyle is a Mizzou fan, yet somehow I gave him a higher rating than “negative infinity.” I’m clearly a Christian. On with more good things…

The Good:

You’ve gotta love the Mexicutioner selection. It will reap many rewards for Kyle. He got him in a trade for me for Justin Upton and James Loney, I believe. Loney was a key in me landing Josh Hamilton and I don’t believe I would have kept Soria, but I might have kept him over Carlos Quentin. In any case, Kyle has him and made a good decision here.

Ervin Santana had a good season last year…

Jason Bay Is excellent value at round 18 and gives him excellent flexibility in the draft.

I’m not a fan of keeping Alfonso Soriano at round five, but he does produce at a high level and is in a strong lineup in a weak division.

Kyle has a man crush on Magglio, so I’ll be careful to not criticize him too much.

The Bad:

I take that back, the Magglio decision was a poor one. Magglio, with the exception of his 2007 season, has not been the same since his surgery and subsequent move to spacious Detroit. He’ll be 36 this season, with bad legs, in a big ball park, playing every day in said big ball park. This is not a good situation.

Ervin Santana is on the DL.

Alfonso Soriano will be “33” this season and has had injury issues in back to back years. Best case scenario, he sees a strong drop in his stolen bases and a little bit of a drop in his power. Worst case scenario, and this is the Cubs we’re talking about, Soriano will lose his speed and his power and will only play for half the season. Either way, his production is going to decrease to a point not worthy of a fifth round pick. I think there were better options for Kyle than keeping Soriano.

Jason Bay is an excellent player, but I do wonder if the poor ALCS and full season of the Boston Media Machine will have negative effects on him.

I have nothing poor to say about the Mexicutioner.

Kept: The Adam Keller Story

Kept Players
Jimmy Rollins (Round 4)
Dan Haren (Round 11)
Dan Uggla (Round 17)
Aubrey Huff (Round 25)
Ricky Nolasco (Round 14)

Last Year’s Record: 9-15
Division: Losers
Season Result: Finished fourth in the Losers Division.

Keeper Decision Scale: 6.5/10

I give Adam a pass for his first year in The League, but he’s not going to get one for his crappy keeper selections… or is he? But first, the good.

The Good:

I cannot argue with taking the first round talent in the fourth round. I’m all for that. I do question ESPN’s projections for him, but that is neither here nor there.

Dan Uggla strikes out a LOT. But I suppose if you want to make sure you get a top five second basemen for a 17th round pick, you can’t go too wrong. I don’t know if I would have kept him, but looking at Adam’s roster, I don’t think there were many other options.

Dan Haren was kept at excellent value. Though I do not think he will repeat last season’s performance, I do think he’s going to get better production out of him than a pitcher he may draft in the eleventh round.

I hate the Aubrey Huff decision, but the positive in that is I have been known to be wrong on occasion.

Ricky Nolasco was an interesting keeper decision. Florida will be down a bit this year, which means they should make the World Series.

The Bad:

Nolasco pitched 212 innings last season, the first time he has done so in his career. It was also the first time he had pitched more than 165 innings in a season. Do the math where I’m going with this.

Aubrey Huff sucks. From 2005 to 2007, Huff had a .778 OPS with declining power each season; given Huff is moving away from his prime (he’ll be 32 this year), assumed regression from what was almost a career year, and Weiters eventual entrance to the lineup, I think it is safe to say he won’t be as good in 2009. Even if he is close to last year’s numbers, he was still only a middle of the road option. I don’t think you keep Huff ahead of some of his other options he had on the table (ie Brian Fuentes or Raul Ibanez – neither of whom, on first and second glance, were drafted last season).

Dan Uggla strikes out a WHOLE lot. So much so that his 77 walks were not enough fantasy points to break even with his strikeouts. Additionally, Uggla was only the 8th best (in a 10 team league I may add) second base eligible player. To put it another way, he only had three more points than Jose Lopez last season. Why not keep the new Angles closer, who you know is going to get a host of saves, for a 15th rounder and take Lopez late in the draft. It seems like a better move to me given the sleeper label that is on Lopez this year.

I cannot knock the Haren and Rollins choices. I think having Rollins in the fourth round alone makes this a better keeper class than some we have discussed.