Monday, July 7, 2008

WIR and Pretender/Contender

Quick Week in Review

Inoculators vs. Cockies:

Well, someone decided to randomly go off for 500+ points. The Cockies scored 280.5 points in a three day span to blow out the Inoculators. Gavin Floyd (?!) led the way for the Cockies with 71.5 points, while Matt Holliday posted 65 points.

Phantom Menaces vs. Boom Goes the Dynamite:

The Phantom Menaces continued their dominance with a victory this week. The Dynamite pitching staff was only able to put up 74 points, which gave PM the victory.

Krunk Smurfs vs. KC:

The Smurfs finally won for the first time since late April. Yikes!

The Zou vs. Rasmus’s:

The Zou was the benefactor of a mere 65 points from the Rasmus’ pitching staff to gain the win this week. In other news, I hate the Zou.

Hancock’s Halos vs. Clemens’ Roid Needles:

The Halos remain in first place with a come from behind win by a mere 15.5 points over CRN. HH got 17 points from Brian Roberts and 38.5 points from John Danks Sunday in the comeback. The Halos won despite even though the pitching staff scoring only 68.5 points.

Contender or Pretender

Hancock’s Halos (11-3)
Points For: 5255
Points Against: 4068
Playoff Chances: 80%

A lot is going right for the Halos. He leads the league in points scored and is tied for the most wins in the league.

There are, however, several kinks in the armor. The Halos are in the bottom half of the league in runs, doubles, home runs and RBI. Two of his top three offensive producers (Russell Martin and Brian Roberts) are poor second half players, hitting under .275 with reduced power and speed numbers. Rumors of a Mark Teixeira deal to the LAAAAAAA may kill Casey Kotchman’s playing time. Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu are each mired in the worst seasons of their careers. And Vernon Wells has yet to return to he pre-DL form for the last place Blue Jays.

The strength of the Halos team, the pitching, is also becoming a concern. Edison Volquez is setting a career high for innings every time he pitches and it is showing. Volquez last six starts he has a 4.54 ERA with 16 walks and 35 hits and reduced strikeout numbers (25 Ks over six starts with 9 coming in one start) in 35.2 innings pitched. You also have to wonder when the Reds will start shutting him down.

Justin Verlander’s latest success may also be a flash in the pan. His last four starts have been against the @ Padres, @ Giants, vs Rockies and @ Mariners. All teams struggling to score. His walk numbers have also been terrible (3 walks or more in 10 of 18 starts). Verlander has also thrown over 500 innings over the last two and half seasons. When looking at his walk numbers and innings, you’ve got to wonder how long he can hold up for the rest of this season.

His best pitcher of late has been John Danks. Yep. Daisuke Matsuzaka has terrible walk issues and is very inconsistent. Ubaldo Jimenez is a walking fantasy headache (I know, because I owned him for most of the season). Kelvim Escobar will not return off the DL as a starter and you’ve got to wonder what Shaun Marcum will be like when he returns from the DL as well.

Additionally, the Halos have had the fewest points scored against them in the league. Opponents are averaging less than 300 points (290.5 points) per week. At some point the Halos opponents are going to score points. Will the Halos be able to hold up to that?

Phantom Menaces (11-3)
Points For: 4984
Points Against: 4373.5
Playoff Chances: 75%

The Phantom Menaces have scored the third most points and allowed the second fewest points. This leads to some of the same questions the Halos are dealing with when it comes to when opponents start scoring more points.

PM looks to be good on offense. Chase Utley may be this year’s NL MVP. Mark Teixeira is crushing the ball. Manny Ramirez now being eligible as a DH will open up more time for Kosuke Fukudome. Catching is an issue for PM.

Pitching is the major issue for PM. Outside of Cliff Lee, things are shaky in the starting staff. Carlos Zambrano just returned from the DL (and had a very good start), but has been very inconsistent all season. Scott Kazmir strikes out people, but also walks a ton of people and has had issues getting beyond the fifth inning. After that, everything is up for grabs.

What he does have going for him are his closers, who make up one of if not the best tandem in the league.

The Zou (10-4)
Points For: 5061
Points Against: 4747
Playoff Chances: 75%

The Zou needs offense. BADLY. He does have a deep rotation with six starting pitchers with 200 or more points.

What’s going to make or break his season is selectively choosing which pitchers he trades for offense. The wrong combination could spell doom for him quickly, but it could also mean a championship.

Cockies (8-5)
Points For: 4795.5
Points Against: 4502.5
Playoff Chances: 65%

The Cockies list of no-name pitchers has given the fourth best record in the league. There are no pitchers on his roster with more than 200 points, but he does have six pitchers with more than 200. Of course, this does not mean there are plenty of question marks with his rotation.

First there are the list of unknowns: Justin Duchscherer, Armando Galarraga and Gavin Floyd. How these three hold up. Duchscherer has never throw over 100 innings in his career. This is Galarraga’s rookie season as a 26-year-old. This is also the first season Floyd has gone over 100 innings pitched (previous high was 70 innings). Floyd had an ERA of 4.90 in 64 second half innings last year.

Second there are the 200 guys: Javier Vazquez and ERA of 6.38 in his last six starts and has seen an increase in walks. Josh Beckett is coming off his first back-to-back seasons of 200 innings pitched plus the playoffs. Tim Hudson is either shutting people down or giving up six runs in a start. Ryan Dempster hasn’t thrown over 100 innings since 2003.

The Cockies offense is pretty good, but probably needs an upgrade at catcher.

Clemens Roid Needles (7-7)
Points For: 4409
Points Against: 4413.5
Playoff Chances: 55%

The CRN lineup has issues at catcher, right field and designated hitter. His pitching staff, outside of Ben Sheets and Ervin Santana (who is cooling off slightly) has absolutely nothing on it. Who knows what a Francisco Liriano return will bring (he had a good rehab outing yesterday), but he alone isn’t going to be enough.

CRN should consider trading Pat Burrell or Jason Bay for added pitching if he wants to stay in the playoff hunt.

Inoculators (6-8)
Points For: 4969.5
Points Against: 4933
Playoff Chances: 50%

Inoculator opponents are averaging 352.5 points per matchup and have scored fewer than 300 points in a matchup twice. Once was week two when the Zou scored 291 point and the other instance was week 12 when the Smurfs put up 183.5 points. The point being that, at some point, people are going to stop have massive weeks every week they play the Inoculators. If the Inoculators had the points against fortune of CRN, who is in the middle of the pack in points against, the Inoculators would be between 9-5 and 11-3.

The Inocluators biggest roster need is a dominate pitcher. None of the Inoculator pitchers have over 260 points. Jake Peavy’s injury hurt, as has the Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz injuries and demotions. The Inoculators need one or two pitchers to make a run at the last playoff spot.

Rasmus’s (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

Boom Goes the Dynamite (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

KC (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

Smurfs (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

Bottom Feeders:

The Smurfs, BGtD, Rasmus’ and KC all have assets the contending teams need to make the playoffs. Smart dealing could land some serious keeper prospects (See: “5 (or 6) Fantasy Players that Ought to be Traded This Week” blog post)and put them as front runners next season. Keep in mind that both the Halos and Cockies were the two worst teams in the league last year and are now serious playoff contenders.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

GREAT POST BEN!!! YOU ROCK!!!!

K...so I thought Id just comment since noone else does...but Im still waiting for more. You said thered be a bunch today and there has been NONE...Im really bored here at work!!!

MORE BLOGS!!! Or I will go Jose Guillen on you!