SUB-300 Syndrome and How It Has Affected the First Half

There have been 41 times this season where a team’s opponent has scored under 299 points. The data suggests some of the reasons why certain teams are winning frequently, while others have not. Here is the data followed by some thoughts.

When Opponent Scores Under 299 Points

BSI: 2 times (1-1) – W vs. KS, L vs. Zou
KS: 5X (3-2) – W vs. BSI and KC twice, L vs. PM and BGD
CRN: 5X (4-1) – W vs. Zou, KS, BSI, BGD – L vs. PM
KC: 2X (0-2) – L vs. HH and KS
HH: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, RC, CRN, KS, BGD, RC, SPR
SPR: 2X (2-0) – W vs. RC, KS
PM: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, CRN, KS, CRN, SPR, BGD, KS
BGD: 3X (3-0) – W vs. HH, KS, RC
RC: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BGD, CRN and L vs. HH
ZOU: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BSI, KS and L vs. CRN

When Scoring Under 299 Points

BSI: 3X – L vs. Zou, Smurfs, CRN
HH: 3X – W vs. KC and RC with L vs. BGD
KS: 11X – Check season schedule
CRN: 5X – W vs. Zou with L vs. PM twice, HH, RC
KC: 4X – L vs. PM, HH, KS twice
SPR: 2X – L vs. PM and HH
PM: 2X – W vs. CRN and KS (Note: CRN and KS two lowest scoring teams)
BGD: 5X – W vs. KS and L vs. RC, CRN, HH, PM
RC: 4X – L vs. SPR, HH twice, BGD
ZOU: 2X – W vs. BSI and L vs. CRN

Let’s focus on the Halos for a moment. The Halos are 7-0 against teams that scored under 299 points against him, but there is another stat that is telling as well. The median average of points scored per game for the league is 336. Three times this season the Halos' opponent has scored between 300 and 325 points, resulting in a 2-1 record for the Halos. This means in two-thirds of the Halos matchups this season, his opponent has scored at least 10 points below league average. Ten times! The Halos have had their opponent score over 350 points four times this season and is 2-2 in those matchups.

Now, Andrew would probably argue that he has scored the most points in the league (by far) so who cares? This is an excellent point, but my purpose is not to say Andrew’s team sucks (because it doesn't). No, the point is luck is a big factor in fantasy. For instance, if Andrew’s opponents were averaging 358 points a game (like what Inoculators opponents are averaging) he would be 9-6. If Inoculators opponents were averaging 288 points (like what Halos opponents are averaging) Ben would be 14-1.

Of course, no one is posting “average points against” every week so this is not to say the Inoculators would be actually be 14-1 or the Halos would be 9-6. There are obviously other factors to consider. The point, again, is the impact of luck in fantasy.

A deeper analysis of the Inoculators is forthcoming (I know you could care less, but I just freaking lost a matchup by .5 points so deal with it!), but I thought I’d post this first.