Opinion Tuesday - The NFL Draft

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With the NFL Draft (or, as I am now calling it, “Example 93,234,234,234.3B Carl Peterson Should Have Been Fired”) forcing itself upon us Saturday, I thought I’d bore myself and other by giving my thoughts as it relates to the Chiefs.

Here are the reasons why the Chiefs are totally screwed on Saturday and Sunday:

ONE. Carl Peterson is the General Manager of the Chiefs.
TWO. The Chiefs need at least five starters from this draft.
THREE. Carl Peterson has never had a draft that produced five weekly starters.
FOUR. The Chiefs need to evaluate talent better than anyone else in the draft.
FIVE. Carl Peterson is a terrible talent evaluator.
SIX. The Chiefs need three starting offensive lineman to protect their “franchise” quarterback.
SEVEN. Carl Peterson is the General Manager of the Chiefs.
EIGHT. Herm Edwards is the head coach of the Chiefs.
NINE. There is no clear “top tier” players in this draft.
TEN. The Chiefs have the fifth pick in a draft without a clear “top tier” set of players.
ELEVEN. The Chiefs are trading their best defensive player for two draft picks.
TWELVE. Carl Peterson has a history of poor drafts.
THIRTEEN. The Chiefs do not have a clear starting quarterback.
FOURTEEN. The Chiefs do not know how healthy Larry Johnson is going to be.
FIFTEEN. The Chiefs have two starting caliber offensive linemen.
SIXTEEN. The Chiefs have one starting caliber wide receiver.
SEVENTEEN. The Chiefs have no back up tight end.
EIGHTEEN. The Chiefs will have a need at defensive end if Allen is traded.
NINETEEN. The Chiefs have a large need at defensive tackle.
TWENTY. The Chiefs do not have one starting cornerback.
TWENTY-ONE. The Chiefs lack a middle linebacker.
TWENTY-TWO. Donnie Edwards is 4746 years old in NFL years.
TWENTY-THREE. Bernard Pollard is a linebacker that can’t tackle consistently and cannot cover who plays safety.
TWENTY-FOUR. The Chiefs do not have a kicker.
TWENTY-FIVE. The Chiefs are in a division with a number one overall, fourth overall and eleventh overall drafted quarterback. Brodie Croyle was twenty-first overall… in the third round.
TWENTY-SIX. The Chiefs are in a conference with nine Super Bowl contending teams.
TWENTY-SEVEN. Carl Peterson is the General Manager of the Chiefs.
TWENTY-EIGHT. Tom Brady is not the quarterback of the Chiefs.

Herm Edwards said in his press conference Sunday that the Chiefs need to produce at least five starters from this weekend’s draft. As of now, all of the Chiefs additional picks are in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. If the Chiefs trade Allen, it is likely they will only add one pick to this year’s draft (a first round pick) with a conditional pick in 2009. Whatever happens, this means the Chiefs must hit in rounds two and three. Here are the last 20 years of second and third round picks for the Kansas City Chiefs:

2007: Turk McBride (2), Tank Tyler (3)
2006: Bernard Pollard (2), Brodie Croyle (3)
2005: Dustin Colquitt (3)
2004: Junior Siavii (2), Kris Wilson (2), Keyaron Fox (3)
2003: Kawika Mitchell (2), Julian Battle (3)
2002: Eddie Freeman (2)
2001: Eric Downing (3), Marvin Minnis (3)
2000: William Bartee (2), Greg Wesley (3)
1999: Mike Cloud (2), Gary Stills (3), Larry Atkins (3)
1998: Rashaan Shehee (3)
1997: Kevin Lockett (2)
1996: Reggie Tongue (2), John Browning (3)
1995: Tamarick Vanover (3), Troy Dumas (3)
1994: Donnell Bennett (2), Lake Dawson (3), Chris Penn (3)
1993: Will Shields (3)
1992: Matt Blundin (2)
1991: Joe Valerio (2), Tim Barnett (3)
1990: Tim Grunhard (2)
1989: Mike Elkins (2), Naz Worthern (3)
1988: Kevin Porter (3)

Let’s compare that AWESOME list of players to what the San Diego Chargers have done since 2001:

2001: Drew Brees (2), Tay Cody (3)
2002: Toniu Fonoti (2), Reche Caldwell (2), Ben Leber (3)
2003: Drayton Florence (2), Terrance Kiel (2), Courtney Van Buren (3)
2004: Igor Olshansky (2), Nate Kaeding (3), Nick Hardwick (3)
2005: Vincent Jackson (2)
2006: Marcus McNeill (2), Charlie Whitehurst (3)
2007: Eric Weddle (2), Anthony Waters (3)

Neat. You can go ahead and argue that Croyle and Pollard are both starters and they were second and third round picks. But at this point, would you rather have Marcus McNeill, a pro-bowl left tackle, or Bernard Pollard, a guy who’s blocked a few punts, made some big hits, missed tackles and blows coverages? Would you rather have Croyle or Drew Brees? Nate Kaeding or Julian Battle? Junior Siavii or Igor Olshansky? Drayton Florence or Kawika Mitchell? There is a reason why San Diego is good and the Chiefs are not.

Carl Peterson is going to have to hit on picks he has never hit on before, hit in the first and fourth rounds and then hope he finds a diamond in the rough in rounds five through seven. Good luck with that.

Trading Jared Allen is a bad idea for the Chiefs. It isn’t a terrible idea, but it is a bad one. How long has it taken us to find a legitement pass rusher since Derrick Thomas? Now we have one and we don’t want to pay for him and keep him through his prime? How does that make sense? Are we really banking on Carl Peterson hitting on BOTH first round picks (which is what he HAS to do) and then find a suitable replacement either in the draft, someone already on the roster or in free agency? And what a waste it would be if we spent our first round pick on a defensive end. Then you’re basically trading a proven defensive end for an unproven defensive end. That makes little sense. Trading Allen is only going to make the rebuilding process of the Chiefs even more difficult.

If they keep Allen (who is just now turning 26) and take three years to rebuild, they would, in theory, have a good team with a Jared Allen in his prime. Trading Allen eliminates a key building block in the rebuilding process.

The only way this trade is successful, to me, is if they are able to trade out of their fifth overall pick (which isn’t looking good at the moment). For the sake of making this blog post longer, lets say they trade the pick to Dallas for one of their first round picks, a third round and a conditional pick next year. Here is what the Chiefs should do with those picks:

1st Round (17 – From Minnesota): Mike Jenkins CB
1st Round (22 – From Dallas via Cleveland): Aqib Talib CB/KR
2nd Round (35): Carl Nicks OT
3rd Round (66): Mike Pollak C/G
3rd Round (92 – From Dallas): Jordy Nelson WR
4th Round (105): John Sullivan C
5th Round (136 – From Miami): Martin Rucker TE
5th Round (140): Trevor Scott DE
6th Round (170): Carlton Powell DE/DT
6th Round (187 – From Tampa Bay): Chauncey Washington RB
7th Round (210): Taylor Mehlhaff K
7th Round (239 – New York Giants): Rocky Schwartz DB

Here are my thoughts on this: A tandem of Jenkins and Talib would solve the cornerback position for a long time. Both are playmakers with ball skills and speed. Jenkins is more refined than Talib and has a sub-4.4 40 time while Talib is far more physical and has better size. Carl Nicks is a first round draft pick in any other draft, but the tackle position is deep this year. He played in a pro-style offense at Nebraska, benched 225 pounds 31 times, has good size and could play guard if tackle doesn’t work out for him. Mike Pollak has been tabbed as the second best interior lineman in the draft. Jordy Nelson has the speed to play on the other side of Bowe. John Sullivan is a smart center for Notre Dame. We all know Martin Rucker. Trevor Scott (6-5, 256) is a pass rushing specialist who runs a 4.54-40 and has a good “motor”. Carlton Powell is a pass-rushing defensive tackle who happens to weigh 300 pounds. Chauncey Washington is problem child from USC who rarely saw the field. Washington has a 4.45-40 time at 215 pounds. Taylor Mehlhaff is supposedly the best kicker in the draft. Who knows. Rocky Schwartz? I know nothing about him other than his name is Rocky! How is that not good?

Something else to consider here is trading Jared Allen to Philadelphia for Lito Shepherd and their first round pick. I think I’d like that better than trading him to Minnesota.

I have a terrible feeling about this draft. What scares me more is that feeling is getting progressively worse. That is not a good sign.