Thursday, December 18, 2008

Erik: Andrew is Number 1 (of 1)!

With the winter meetings having come to a close, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the keeper situations facing each of the ten teams The League.

With that wonderful introduction in place, we will now take a look at the reigning champions, Hancocks Halos.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

Brian Roberts – 3

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 4

Francisco Rodriguez – 6

Conor Jackson – 9

Justin Verlander – 11

Ubaldo Jimenez – 14

Rick Ankiel – 21

Stephen Drew – 24

Carlos Delgado – 28

John Danks – Undrafted

Russell Martin – Undrafted

Carlos Gomez – Undrafted

CC Sabathia – Undrafted

The most talked about baseball player over the last six months headlines the potential keepers for Andrew. Sabathia was dominant in the second half last year and along with Johan Santana helped carry the Halos to The League Title. The big question here is not whether Andrew will keep Sabathia but rather how will Sabathia fare with the Yankees. He moves into a power-heavy division with the burden of a $161 million contract (think of all the Hostess snacks he could/will buy with that much money) on his shoulders having just thrown well over 400+ innings in the last two years combined. I think he will be a steal for Andrew given his undrafted status, but I don’t expect him to equal the second half he put together last year at any time in the 2009 season.

Assuming Sabathis is kept, that would leave four slots open for Andrew with many viable options, but no sure things. Roberts, Matsuzaka, Rodriguez and Jackson would all be solid values if kept, but probably are not the great values Andrew will be looking for with his keeper spots.

Next on the list as far as intrigue goes is Justin Verlander. Verlander struggled greatly last season as his control and velocity took a gigantic step back from their 2007 form. Having said that, Verlander has the highest upside of any of the players remaining for Andrew, but his disastrous 2008 season would make keeping Verlander a big risk at the cost of a 10th-round pick (this would be Verlander’s second season to be kept). Right behind Verlander in terms of upside is Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has an electric arm and showed signs of putting things together last year for the Rockies. He offers Andrew much of the same upside of Verlander will a little less risk and could be a guy to keep an eye on.

Carlos Delgado is an interesting situation as well. Delgado stumbled out of the gates last year but caught fire in the middle of the year and turned out to be one of the top values from last year’s draft. Delgado is obviously getting up there in age and it will be interesting to see if Andrew thinks Delgado can keep it together for at least one more season. The big plus for the Halos is that if they keep Delgado and he bombs next year, they will have only wasted a 28th round pick.

Russell Martin is another of the undrafted players I expect Andrew to keep (how could Sabathia and Martin go undrafted two years ago – I keep checking the draft results expecting that I have just overlooked Martin, but I can’t find him anywhere). Martin is a solid player at a weak position and would be a great value for Andrew.

Expected Keepers for Hancock Halos

Jimenez – 14th

Delgado – 28th

Sabathia – Undrafted

Danks – Undrafted

Martin - Undrafted

Ranking of possible keepers: 1 of 1. Andrew has a solid group of keeper possibilities headlined by the undrafted trio of Sabathia, Danks and Martin. The group as a whole lacks a certain amount of upside, but provides solid value for the reigning champs. I think this group will put Andrew in position to field a very solid team this year but he will probably be at a slight disadvantage to a few teams heading into the draft.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Martin was drafted in the 11th round the first year so he would be a 10th/9th round pick this year...dont worry. Our league isnt THAT dumb haha.

Anonymous said...

Erik,

Nice job. It will be interesting to see what crazy concoction I come up with in my mind.

Sabathia is a definite keeper for me. Im not expecting NEAR the production of the last two years, but as a 15th rounder (I believe thats the going rate for an undrafted player) he should be a steal.

You nailed Verlander right on the head though. Hes a good value IF he goes back to his 07 ways. I know he wont be as bad as he was last year. He was working on a lot of mechanical stuff that messed with him I think. With a full season and the off season to work on it I suspect (and vehemently hope) that he will be back to his 06-07 form.

One guy you listed but failed to talk about is K-Rod. With the Relief spots being expanded and the roster size being limited, a solid to dominant closer will be a hot commodity. I think having K-Rod and Sandman last year was one of the biggest reasons I was so successful. I did not need to worry about the inconsistency that usually plagues the RP position. I could use other roster spots that I would normally use for spot/replacement RPs to hold on to guys like Delgado, and Ubaldo Jimenez who could help me in the future. (Oh and the saves record from K-Rod and a 1.40 ERA from sandman, not to mention no major injuries, helped a lot as well.)

One thing you missed...Russell Martin was unfortunately not undrafted two years ago. I took him in the 11th round I believe which would make him a 10 rounder this year unless I keep Verlander too which would make him a 9th rounder.

My projected keeper list if I HAD to choose right now:
Sabathia, Martin, Verlander, K-Rod, John Danks or Ubaldo Jimenez


Surprised he used vehemently correctly in a sentence,

Andrew Wessley
2008 League Champion

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