Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Erik: Lack of Dominate Pitcher Hurts Tony

Today I will analyze the keeper situation for the San Antonio Saints … even if I am unsure as to whether Tony is actually living in San Antonio or not.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted
John Lackey – 3
Adam Wainwright – 6
Brian McCann – 7
Gil Meche – 11
Dustin Pedroia – 12
Kevin Youkilis – 12
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15
Colby Rasmus – 23
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
David Murphy – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted
Kyle Lohse – Undrafted

Two things jump out to me when I look at Tony’s list of potential keepers:

1. I think his ultimate goal is to fill his roster with completely with Cardinals and Red Sox.
2. Our league is full of morons. First, I write about Andrew keeping the undrafted C.C. Sabathia and now I see Volquez and Ludwick were undrafted. Now I understand that these guys were under the radar coming into last year, but for nobody to take a flyer on them in the late rounds … I think that puts us on par with Johnny Knoxville on an IQ test.

Looking at the Saints’ list of possibilities, nobody really jumps out at me as an absolute must-keep. However, Volquez and Pedroia are pretty close. It will be interesting to see how Volquez bounces back from a sub-par second half and a career high in innings thrown. As for Pedroia, I find it hard to believe that he will duplicate his 2008 MVP season, but he will still put up great numbers for a second basemen and 12th round pick.

Once you get by Volquez and Pedroia, Tony will have some very difficult decisions. Luckily for me, I can refer back to his ultimate goal and get a good idea who he will keep.

Wainwright will be looking to make the jump into the league’s elite pitchers in 2009, but could be a little pricey at a 6th round pick give his recent injury struggles. So, with that Cardinal out of the picture, I think Tony will turn to his 23rd-rounder from last year Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is a great prospect and a great value at the 23rd round, but questions still remain about whether he will break camp with the big league club next year.

With one Cardinal already in the outfield, Tony will look to add a second with Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick had an amazing 2008 season, coming out of nowhere to hit almost .300 with 37 homers. With his undrafted status, Tony adds another solid Cardinal to his team.

With his last keeper spot, I expect Tony to stay true to his rule and choose between two BoSox, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury. Youkilis is a great hitter and good value in the 12th round, but Ellsbury has a higher upside, was a 15th rounder, and should get even more playing time this year with the cereal man out of the picture.

Expected Keepers for the Saints
Dustin Pedroia – 12th
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15th
Colby Rasmus – 23rd
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 2 of 2: Tony is in solid position to improve on his struggles from 2008 with this solid group of keepers. If Pedroia and Ludwick are able to duplicate their ’08 campaigns (which I think is a little unlikely in both cases) and Ellsbury and Rasums follow their projected path, Tony could have one of the most dangerous line-ups in 2009 and not use anything higher than a 12th round pick on his keepers. The only thing that pushes Tony below Andrew is the lack of a dominant pitcher. Volquez and Wainwright have the possibilities, but I am not ready to say either is in the elite category yet. Of course, there is always the possibility that Tony throws me for a loop by keeping Wainwright, Rasmus, Ludwick. Lohse and Carpenter.

4 comments:

tonester_84 said...

that's actually exactly who i was gonna keep

but not for the reasons you speak of

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