From 4 to 1

Is Ryan Braun the next Albert Pujols?

My brain has many thoughts. Here are some examples:

I have this creepy feeling like the Cardinals are going to win their division again.
I have to pee.

(Hold on, I’ll be back…)

The Royals must sign pitching before hitting this season, even if it means they don’t get a “masher.”
I have a feeling a BIG trade involving either Teahen or DeJesus will happen this offseason.
If my understanding of the fantasy playoff system is correct, the Phantom Menaces will not make the playoffs.
It’s almost football season…
Electricity, at times, can be gay.

See, I have thoughts. Now that we have proven that I have them, here are my thoughts on the four teams I think will make the playoffs and the team I feel will eventually win it all. I will start at “4” and work my way down…or up…or whatever way it is.

4) Tones

I do not think the Tones are all that good. What the Tones do have going for them is an insane infield lineup and the best pitcher in the game. The problem is, at least for this year, is that hitting cannot lead your team to victory in this league. You need pitching. Outside of Johan Santana, the Tones do not have anyone consistent enough to get them far in the playoffs.

What will get the Tones into the playoffs is that the Phantom Menaces will get in too big of a hole in the month of August. Injuries have killed that team. KC is 1-4 the last five weeks (and is losing 117.5 to -23.5 this week) and Jessica Alba is, well, Jessica Alba.

I think the Tones will be strong enough to take that division, but I do not think he will fair well in the playoffs.

One thing is for sure, however: If the Tones decided to keep any combination of Pujols, Reyes, Wright and Santana and has a solid draft, he will be very tough to beat next season.

3) Smurfs

It’s not that I don’t like this team, because I do. How could you not like a team with AROD, Alex Rios, Gary Sheffield, Eric Bedard and Aaron Harang?

The problem is that he made no moves to get better over the deadline. My understanding is that he is operating under the “If it’s not broken, don’t fix it” rule. And right now, to his credit, nothing is broken. He has the best record in the league at 11-6, has an offense that has produced more runs, home runs and triples than any other team in the league and he has a pitching staff that includes the highest point producing pitcher (Bedard).

But here are some things he may not have considered:

Eric Bedard is 13-19 with a 4.20 ERA in the second half of the season for his career. He also has a significantly higher BB/9 ratio in the second half. He is also 2-8 with at 5.30 ERA in his career for the month of August.

Aaron Harang fairs better than Bedard in the second half with a career 26-23 record. But Harang sees a sharp increase in walks in the second half of the season and a significant increase in his ERA. Since the Reds will not be playing for anything, one has to wonder if Harang will get the run support he needs to continue winning games at his current rate.

Carlos Lee, the slugging left fielder, generally struggles in the month of August. His .287/.335./.465 clip is by far his worst month of the season for his career. Lee also strikes out far more in August than he does in any other month. September is not much better for Lee as he is a .288 hitter and slugs .473 – this is down from his .500+ slugging months of May through July.

Surprisingly, even Alex Rodriguez has his weaknesses. His September numbers are by far and away his worst numbers of the year. He is a career .278 hitter in September (compared to .300+ in every month but July where he hits .296) with less power and more strikeouts.

The point is that it is a huge risk staying pat as other teams around you get better. Consider that the Boston Red Sox, despite having the best record in the majors, made a trade at the deadline to improve their team. Same with the Braves, Mets, Padres, Dodgers and Phillies. I think not doing anyting to his roster will end up hurting the Smurfs in the end.

2) Inoculators

The Inoculators have several great and important pieces to help in a run for the league title.

First is Jake Peavy. Peavy is a healthy, strikeout pitcher, in the best pitchers park in baseball, who is at his best in the second half of the season and is in a playoff race. One cannot ask for more than that for their stud pitcher.

Peavy is backed, as he is in real life, by Chris Young who has this thing about not allowing hits or runs. He also strikes out his fair share of batters. The two concerns with Young would be his health and his tendency to give up more runs in the second half than he does in the first. Young is currently on the DL with a minor Oblique strain. It is said he could have pitched on his regularly scheduled start, but they opted to put him on the DL to protect him for the stretch run. Young’s second half ERA, which is 4.09 is partially inflated because of his time in Texas, but it is something to keep an eye on. Young’s second half record is 11-5 for his career.

The Inoculators also has pitchers who are generally hot and are in some kind of playoff chase. Carlos Zambrano (7-1, 1.53 ERA in his last 8 starts), Kelvim Escobar (5-2, 2.75 ERA in last 10 starts) and John Maine (6-1, 2.73 ERA in last 8 starts) are all pitching extremely well as they head into the final two months of tight races for their respective divisions.

Everyday Jeremy Guthrie continues to pitch well is an added bonus. Same with Javier Vazquez, who could still get traded to a contending team via a waiver deal.

The Inoculators have the number one ranked closer in fantasy in J.J. Putz who is also playing on a contending team. Brett Meyers’ ability to close games and fill a start position on the fantasy roster allows the Inoculators to start three closers everyday. The addition of Kerry Wood, who may end up closing games for the Cubs, could boost that number to four closers active all at once.

Needless to say, the Inoculators have a good enough pitching staff to win it for them. The offense is a different subject.

Prince Fielder has hit only two homers since the All-Star break. Hanley Ramirez has separated his shoulder and is a concern for the rest of the season, even though he is still playing. Billy Butler is the DH for the Inoculators, which is asking a lot of a guy who has shown average power thus far.

There are bright spots. Manny Ramirez and Bobby Abreu are warming up from their first half disasters. Brian Roberts, with the injury to Chase Utley, is the top second baseman in fantasy and Eric Byrnes should be slugging his way through the second half to increase his stock on the free agent market for the offseason.

Alex Gordon and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are two guys who could provide surprise points to this squad.

But if the Inoculators want to win the league, their pitching is what is going to have to do it for them.

1) Zou

The Zou is not number one because of their deadline deal with 300 or because they have a superior roster. To be honest, the 300 trade may have hurt the Zou for this season and they do not have a better roster than the Smurfs or the Inoculators.

What the Zou does have is luck.

This is not to say the Zou is a bad squad and is not meant to be an insult. To be honest, if someone wants to win a fantasy title, luck is needed to get it done. The Zou appears to have the most luck so far.

Consider the free agent pick ups of C.C. Sabathia, John Maine, James Shields, Yovani Gallardo, Oliver Perez, Hunter Pence and Ryan Braun and you’ll get the point.

Granted there is skill involved in picking those guys up (except for maybe C.C. Sabathia, the guy who dropped him is an idiot), but at the same time no one expected Ryan Braun to hit home runs at the same pace Lindsay Lohan is picking up DUI’s.

The strength of the Zou’s roster is its pitching. Veterans Tim Hudson (5-0, 2.31 ERA in last 7 starts), John Smoltz (5-3, 2.54 ERA in last 11 starts) and Ben Sheets (currently on the DL) – all of whom are in playoff chases ­– anchor a slew of young, talented arms. Here is a (long) list of them:

Dan Haren – 7-1, 3.46 ERA in last 10 starts
Tim Lincecum – 4-0, 1.34 ERA in last 6 starts
Oliver Perez – 10-7, 3.00 ERA this season
James Shields – 8-7, 128 K this season
Yovani Gallardo – 3-0, 2.68 ERA, 37 IP, 32 K in 6 starts this season
Fausto Carmona – 5-1, 1.74 ERA, 34 K in his last 6 starts
Cole Hamels – 4-3, 3.43 ERA, 52 K in last 10 starts
Daisuke Matsuzaka – 5-5, 2.65 ERA, 74 K in last 11 starts
Phil Hughes – 6.1, 6 Ks in his last start before getting hurt

An issue with young pitching is expirence and the chance for a burn out. Here are the career highs in innings pitchers for all of them: high (year) [this season IP]

Dan Haren – 223 (2006) [155]
Tim Lincecum – 98.1 (2007)
Oliver Perez – 196 (2004 – last two years: 103, 112.1) [120]
James Shields – 151 (2007)
Yovani Gallardo – 46.1 (2007)
Fausto Carmona – 137.2 (2007)
Cole Hamels – 146.2 (2007)
Daisuke Matsuzaka – 144 IP (2007, does not include time in Japan)
Phil Hughes – 10.2 (2007)

Ignoring Dice-K, 6 of the 8 pitchers on this list have already reached career highs, many of whom have blasted their career highs, in innings pitched this season. At what point do these guys wear down?

But most of these pitchers will hold up. Why? Because Erik has the luck flowing for him this season. Ryan Braun anyone? Not to say it doesn’t take skill to know Braun is going to be good and to pick him up (it should be noted I picked him up for a week or two) but for Braun to hit 18 home runs and bat .343 is rather ridiculous. Want to know how ridiculous that is? Look at this:

In year of debut, at least 15 HR, 50 RBI, BA .325 or higher:

Albert Pujols - .329, 37, 130 (161 games, 2001) Future Hall of Famer
Ted Williams - .327, 31, 145 (149 games, 1939) HOF
Dale Alexander - .343, 25, 137 (155 games, 1929) 2 batting titles in five MLB seasons, but career ended by leg injuries
Johnny Frederick - .328, 24, 75 (148 games, 1929) Career shortened by injuries after 6 seasons
Johnny Mize - .329, 19, 93 (126 games, 1936) HOF
Ryan Braun - .343, 18, 50 (61 games, 2007) Erik’s hero
Earl Averill - .332, 18, 96 (151 games, 1929) HOF
George Watkins - .373, 17, 87 (119 games, 1930) Was 30-years-old in year of debut

Umm…yeah.

The luck is on Erik’s side, that is why he gets the nod at number one.

One other thing:

Albert Pujols (first 61 games): .352, 18, 58
Ryan Braun (first 61 games): .343, 18, 50

Just saying...