Friday, May 11, 2007

Worst Rookies ever, Alex Gordon and George Brett

The little video above is two things: a brief summery of Alex Gordon’s first 32 games and the inspiration of this blog.

Below is my "all-time worst rookie season ever" team.

There were a few requirements to be placed on this team:

1. You could not have any previous appearances in the big leagues (i.e. a September call-up, George Brett’s 13 games in 1973 prior to his rookie season in 1974).
2. You must have played a minimum of 100 games.
3. You must have an OPS+ bellow 75
4. You must have had a batting average at or bellow .220 or had the lowest average of those who had an OPS+ at or bellow 75 (this mostly applies to the outfield).

Before we begin, I have a feeling a few of you have no clue what OPS+ is so here is a brief explanation. OPS+ is a way to compare your OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) to other players in the league that season. This number also factors in the ballparks you are playing in. This helps even out stats that are affected by the Green Monster in Boston, the thin air in Colorado and the terribly spacious grounds in Shea Stadium. The average is then set at 100. If your number is above 100, then you are above average. If your number is bellow 100 then you are bellow average. If you have a number bellow 75, you are really bad.

I chose OPS+ because it is a good way of filtering out good and bad hitters. It tells you not only how often you are hitting the ball, walking and getting on base, but also with what kind of power you are hitting.

SO, on with the list…

Catcher – Gary Allenson, Boston Red Sox, 1979

Rookie Line (108 Games): .203, 3 HR, 33 RBI, OPS+ 49

The average league player that season hit .277. Went on to play five more seasons with the Red Sox before playing his final season with the Toronto Blue Jays. He played over 80 games only two more times after his rookie season and had a career batting average of .221 and an OPS+ of 71.

First Base – Tony Bartirome, Pttsburgh Pirates, 1952

Rookie Line (124 Games): .220, 0 HR, 16 RBI, OPS+ 48

Bartirome would only play one season in the majors. He was the seventh youngest player in the major leagues that year at the age of 20. His 37 strikeouts that season were 8 more than his doubles, triples, home runs and RBI combined. He did not ground into a double play the entire season (355 at bats).

Second Base – Del Young, Philadelphia Phillies, 1937

Rookie Line (109 games): .194, 0 HR, 24 RBI, OPS+ 23

Young was gracefully allowed 386 plate appearances in 1937 and would play four seasons for the Phillies. He did not hit a home run until his third season in the big leagues (he hit three that season) and would never homer again. In his rookie season, he accomplished the near impossible feat of having a higher on-base percentage (.235) than slugging percentage (.231). Young stole six bases in his rookie year and would only steal one more base the rest of his career.

Third Base – Mike McCormick, Brooklyn Dodgers, 1904

Rookie Line (105 games): .184, 0 HR, 27 RBI, OPS+ 56

McCormick is recorded to have not struck out a single time in his rookie season. His rookie season would also be his only major league season. He walked 43 times and stole 22 bases and was never caught. Due to his walks, McCormick was able to produce a .278 on-base percentage to dwarf his .222 slugging percentage.

Shortstop – Rob Picciolo, Oakland A’s, 1977

Rookie Line (148 games): .200, 2 HR, 22 RBI, OPS+ 30

Picciolo set a career high in walks his rookie season with 9 while striking out 55 times (which would not be a career high). He would go on to play 8 more seasons in the majors with Oakland, Milwaukee and California. He also committed 21 of his career 71 errors in his rookie campaign. Picciolo was 1-for-3 in the 1981 ALDS versus Kansas City – a series Oakland would win.

Left Field – Howie Shanks, Washington Senators, 1912

Rookie Line (116 games): .231, HR, 48 RBI, OPS+ 75

Shanks has the lowest batting average of any rookie left fielder with a OPS+ 75 or under in a minimum of 100 games played in the history of baseball. Shanks played 14 seasons in the majors and had a career .253 batting average in the dead ball era. He also led the American League in triples (18) in 1921.

Centerfield – Lloyd Merriman, Cincinnati Reds, 1949

Rookie Line (103 games): .230, 4 HR, 26 RBI, OPS+ 68

Merriman is not related to Shawn Merriman. I know this because Lloyd went to Stanford and there is no way Shawn has any resemblance of having any kind of intelligence. Merriman played 5 seasons in the majors and was a career .242 hitter with 12 career bombs.

Right Field – Ken Walters, Philadelphia Phillies, 1960

Rookie Line (103 games): .239, 8 HR, 37 RBI, OPS+ 60

Walters would only hit three more home runs after his rookie season and would be come a career .231 hitter in three major league seasons. Statistically, he compares best to a guy named Karl Olson. The only good thing about being compared to Olson is that he is still alive.

Just for fun…

Starting Pitcher – Jack Bracken, Cleveland Blues, 1901

Rookie Line (100 Innings Pitched): 4-8, 6.21 ERA, 31 BB, 18 SO, ERA+ 57 (ERA+ is like OPS+ only ERA+ is for pitchers)

There is a reason why this guy never pitched again after is rookie year: he sucked. See above his K/BB ratio and ERA. What you do not see above are the following: 137 hits in 100 innings pitched, 1.680 WHIP and 10 hit batsmen. All of this and the guy was playing in the dead ball era. You know, there era where everyone sucked at hitting.

It should also be noted that the Blues defense did not help his cause. In 100 innings pitched, Bracken allowed 25 UNEARNED runs. This brings his total up to 94 runs allowed in 100 innings. Wow.

So, as you can see, what Alex Gordon is doing right now is, essentially, historical. All he needs to do is find a way to subtract two home runs off his line and he could be the WORST rookie third baseman of all-time. Neat.

But there is a little hope in all of this – George Brett truly was not much better (if not worse) through his first 32 games.

Gordon: .173, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 4 2B, 13 BB, 35 SO, .312 OBP, .269 SLG, .581 OPS

Brett: .196, HR, 7 RBI, 6 2B, 3 BB, 11 SO, .216 OBP, .293 SLG, .509 OPS

Other things to keep in mind, Brett committed 21 errors in his first full big league season and then followed with two straight years of 26 errors and a 21 error season. In 1978, Brett committed a more respectable 16 errors, but then followed it with a 31 error season in ’79. It wasn’t until 1980 that Brett had consistently stronger defensive seasons. That would be six full seasons before Brett figured out how to play third base.

Another thing is that Brett didn’t have to worry about filling someone else’s shoes. Brett wasn’t compared to another Brett-like player. For that matter, he didn’t have to worry about being the best prospect since Carlos Beltran or something like that either. Brett was the first of his kind in that regard.

Brett also played on a team that finished 77-85 his rookie season. According to the Pythagorean formula, the Royals actually UNDERACHIEVED that season and should have finished 82-80. He also had guys like Hal McRae, Amos Otis and John Mayberry around him to pick up the offensive load. As a team, they hit .259 and had an OPS+ of 94. This year’s team is hitting .246 and has an OPS+ of 86. And when you consider that Reggie Sanders, who was slugging .612 before he got hurt, is out of the lineup, we are an even more terrible offensive team.

Brett consistently batted 8th in the lineup his rookie season until the middle of September when he was moved up to the three hole. Gordon started the season batting 5th and has batted 5th as recently as Wednesday (he went 0-3 and struck out twice).

Another thing to consider is that the Royals had two winning seasons in the last three prior to the 1974 season. They were also entering their sixth year of existence. This year the Royals are coming off their third straight 100 loss season and forth 100 loss season in five years. People are desperately not wanting to suck and the guy who is supposed to be the Moses of the Royals franchise is sucking hard.

So in retrospect, we should probably lay off. Give the guy a chance to figure out where the heck he is. If you really think about it, Billy Butler is not doing much better; the only difference is that the guy had a good first four games. Since then he has sucked.

Butler first four games: 7-16 (.438), 2B, 2 RBI, 2 SO, .438 OBP, .500 SLG, .938 OPS

Butler last five games: 2-17 (.118), 2B, RBI, BB, 4 SO, .167 OBP, .176 SLG, .343 OPS

But when you look at his season batting average of .273 you feel a little better about yourself. That, and the guy is supposedly projected to be a better hitter than Gordon, if he isn’t a better hitter than him now.

What makes this whole thing difficult is that the Royals didn’t have a Gil Meche-type signing on offense. We don’t have that older guy who is slugging the ball in the midst of everyone sucking. The guy who is winning games by himself like Meche is right now. Mike Sweeney looks old. Mark Teahen is getting better, but he is sucking it up on the road and seems to be a year away for being consistently dominate.

I also consider the prospective we would be looking at this if our bullpen had just won HALF of the games they have blown and if Emil Brown did not exist. Wishful thinking I suppose.

1 comment:

tonester_84 said...

i learned a lot.......but a lot about the royals......soooo, i didn't really learn a lot