Kept: The Erik Johnson Story

Kept Players
Tim Lincecum (Round 14)
Cole Hamels (Round 20)
Chad Billingsley (Round 8)
Josh Beckett (Round 15)
Prince Fielder (Round 13)

Last Year’s Record: 18-6
Division: Winners
Season Result: Division Winner and The League Runner-up

Keeper Decision Scale: 7.5/10

After the last two seasons, it would be hard to criticize Erik’s risk taking on young pitchers. But because I’m writing this post, you know I’ll find something. Before we get to that, here is what Erik did right.

The Good:
Unlike Andrew, Erik took advantage of his strength and what made his team good last season: His young starting pitching. The four-headed monster that is Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley will be tough for any team to match. Erik is going to feel quite nicely about have four to eight starts a week from those four guys. All four pitchers strikeout batters at a very high rate and all produce a lot of quality innings, which should play well to this year’s scoring system.

Prince Fielder provides something Erik has lacked the last two seasons: A solid fantasy bat. Last year, Erik depended mostly on the production from Adam Dunn, who while he hits a ton of home runs and drawls 100 walks, also strikes out 200 times and has another 200 production-less fantasy at-bats. Fielder is a more consistent player, who does not strike out at the same rate and has more productive at-bats. Having his rotation set should help Erik figure out his offensive woes early in the draft.

The Bad:
Injuries, injuries, injuries.

The is a growing thought processes, and evidence to go with it, that suggest that the farther a young pitcher goes over his previous career high in innings pitched, the more likely he is to get hurt the following season. The magic number is about 20 innings. The farther away you get from 20 innings, the higher injury risk you are placing on said pitcher.

An example would Fausto Carmona. Carmona threw 75 innings his rookie year in 2006 and followed that up by pitching 215 innings in 2007. Needless to say, injuries were an issue last season.

Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels and Chad Billingsley are all dangerously flirting with this injury theory.

Lincecum pitched 81 more innings (227 IP) in 2008 than he did in 2007 (146). He only pitched 63 total innings in his two years in the minors, but did throw significantly more innings in college. Include his already violent pitching motion and the general theory of “20” and Lincecum could be, at least, looking at a 2008 Justin Verlander-type season.

Cole Hamels also has had a lot of mileage on him in his first three season. Last season alone he threw 262 innings when his postseason innings are included. In the last two years, he’s thrown a total of 461 innings. This is a large workload for a guy who is just turning 25. Hamels would be a prime candidate for a 2008 JV season, if not an injury plagued one.

Chad Billingsley surpassed his career high by 40 innings last year. In 2006 he pitch 161 innings, 20 more than his previous high, between AAA and the majors and threw 147 the next season in an injury plagued year. In 2008 he threw 200 innings. I’d expect a trip to the disabled list for Billingsley this season.

We all know about Josh Beckett’s injury issues.

Prince Fielder may be a concern if the Brewers get to far out of the race by the end of July. Fielder has already expressed his dislike for the Brewers and may not feel the need to try very hard if the Brewers have nothing to play for. Fielder has also been a slow starter in his first two years in the bigs.

Assuming health, Erik has one of the best pitching situations in The League. If he can add one or two more high end arms in the draft, he will be looking very nice in his quest for a third-straight title game appearance.

2009 Draft

Round One
Weseloh –Albert Pujols
Allen – Hanley Ramirez
Willey – David Wright
Keller – Jose Reyes
Nielsen – Grady Sizemore
Morris – Mark Teixiera
Schilb – Johan Santana
Kimball – Justin Morneau
Johnson – Chase Utley
Wessley – Miguel Cabrera

Round Two
Wessley – Carlos Lee
Johnson – Brandon Webb
Kimball – Roy Halladay
Schilb – Francisco Liriano
Morris – Manny Ramirez
Nielsen – Nick Markakis
Keller – Alex Rodriguez
Willey – Ryan Howard
Allen – Roy Oswalt
Weseloh – Aramis Ramirez

Round Three
Weseloh – Carlos Beltran
Allen – Kevin Youkilis
Willey – Jake Peavy
Keller – Felix Hernandez
Nielsen – Brian Roberts
Morris – John Lackey
Schilb – Derrek Lee
Kimball – Alex Gordon
Johnson – Ichiro
Wessley – Brandon Philips

Round Four
Wessley – Carl Crawford
Johnson – Jon Lester
Kimball – Alex Rios
Schilb – James Shields
Morris – B.J. Upton
Nielsen – Brian McCann
Keller – Jimmy Rollins (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Matt Kemp
Allen – Nate McLouth
Weseloh – Lance Berkman (Keeper, First Time)

Round Five
Weseloh – Johnny Damon
Allen – Vladimir Guerrero
Willey – Joe Mauer
Keller – Curtis Granderson
Nielsen – Joe Nathan
Morris – Alfonso Soriano (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Matt Holliday (Keeper, Second Time)
Kimball – Robinson Cano
Johnson – Chipper Jones
Wessley – Bobby Abreu

Round Six
Wessley – Francisco Rodriguez
Johnson – Yovani Gallardo
Kimball – Joey Votto
Schilb – Chris Davis
Morris – Rafeal Furcal
Nielsen – Mariano Rivera
Keller – Adam Wainwright
Willey – Derek Jeter
Allen – Adrian Gonzalez
Weseloh – Daisuke Matsuzaka

Round Seven
Weseloh – Garrett Atkins
Allen – Rich Harden
Willey – Kevin Slowey
Keller – Bobby Jenks
Nielsen – Carlos Pena
Morris – Scott Kazmir
Schilb – Corey Hart
Kimball – John Danks
Johnson – Connor Jackson
Wessley – Torii Hunter

Round Eight
Wessley – Derek Lowe
Johnson – Chad Billingsley (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Yunel Escobar
Schilb – Carlos Marmol
Morris – Matt Cain
Nielsen – Troy Tulowitzki
Keller – Hunter Pence
Willey – Justin Verlander
Allen – A.J. Burnett
Weseloh – Ian Kinsler (Keeper, First Time)

Round Nine
Weseloh – Erik Bedard
Allen – Max Scherzer
Willey – Brian Fuentes
Keller – Carlos Zambrano
Nielsen – Jose Valverde
Morris – Matt Garza
Schilb – Javier Vasquez
Kimball – Joe Saunders
Johnson – Lastings Milledge
Wessley – Gil Meche

Round Ten
Wessley – Russell Martin (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – David Price
Kimball – J.J. Putz
Schilb – Milton Bradley
Morris – Adrian Beltre
Nielsen – Brett Myers
Keller – B.J. Ryan
Willey – Mark DeRosa
Allen – Chone Figgins
Weseloh – Aaron Harang

Round Eleven
Weseloh – Justin Duchscherer
Allen – Chien-Meng Wang
Willey – Matt Capps
Keller – Dan Haren (Keeper, Second Time)
Nielsen – Mark Buehrle
Morris – Mike Aviles
Schilb – Geovany Soto (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Ted Lilly
Johnson – Kerry Wood
Wessley – Ryan Zimmerman

Round Twelve
Wessley – Brian Wilson
Johnson – Joey Devine
Kimball – Mike Gonzalez
Schilb – Chris Young ARI OF
Morris – Ryan Doumit
Nielsen – Olivar Perez
Keller – Victor Martinez
Willey – Brad Lidge (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Dustin Pedroia (Keeper, First Time)
Weseloh – Francisco Cordero

Round Thirteen
Weseloh – Zack Greinke (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Ryan Ludwick (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Adam Dunn
Keller – Xavier Nady
Nielsen – Jair Jurrjens
Morris – Heath Bell
Schilb – George Sherrill
Kimball – Pat Burrell
Johnson – Prince Fielder (Keeper, First Time)
Wessley – Jered Weaver

Round Fourteen
Wessley – CC Sabathia (Keeper, Second Time)
Johnson – Tim Lincecum (Keeper, Second Time)
Kimball – Jonathan Papelbon (Keeper, Second Time)
Schilb – Alexei Ramierez (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Matt Wieters
Nielsen – Ryan Braun (Keeper, Second Time)
Keller – Ricky Nolasco (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Justin Upton
Allen – Edinson Volquez (Keeper, First Time)
Weseloh – Brandon Morrow

Round Fifteen
Weseloh – Jose Lopez
Allen – Jacoby Ellseburry (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Trevor Hoffman
Keller – Vernon Wells
Nielsen – Carlos Quentin (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Matt Lindstrom
Schilb – Ryan Dempster (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Josh Johnson (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – Josh Beckett (Keeper, First Time)
Wessley – Jonathan Broxton (Keeper, First Time)

Round Sixteen
Wessley – Jason Werth
Johnson – Ubaldo Jimenez
Kimball – Shane Victorino (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Manny Parra
Morris – Magglio Ordonez (Keeper, Second Time)
Nielsen – Andy Sonnanstine
Keller – Jeremy Guthrie
Willey – Hank Blalock
Allen – Mike Napoli
Weseloh – Brad Hawpe

Round Seventeen
Weseloh – Michael Young
Allen – David Ortiz
Willey – Howie Kendrick
Keller – Dan Uggla (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – Josh Hamilton (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Joakim Soria (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Huston Street
Kimball – Scott Shields
Johnson – Raul Ibanez
Wessley – John Maine

Round Eighteen
Wessley – Jorge Cantu
Johnson – Sean Gallagher
Kimball – Bengie Molina
Schilb – Armando Galarraga
Morris – Jason Bay (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – Evan Longoria (Keeper, First Time)
Keller – Chris Young SD P
Willey – Jay Bruce (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Frank Fransisco
Weseloh – Joel Hanrahan

Round Nineteen
Weseloh – Chris Carpenter
Allen – Hiroki Kuroda
Willey – Jim Thome
Keller – Mike Cameron
Nielsen – Joba Chamberlain (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Nelson Cruz
Schilb – Kelly Shoppach
Kimball – David Murphy
Johnson – Orlando Cabrera
Wessley – Randy Johnson

Round Twenty
Wessley – Cameron Maybin
Johnson – Cole Hamels (Keeper, Second Time)
Kimball – Mike Pelfrey
Schilb – Brad Ziegler
Morris – Fausto Carmona
Nielsen – Billy Butler
Keller – Kyle Lohse
Willey – Brad Penny
Allen – J.J. Hardy
Weseloh – Jeremy Bonderman

Round Twenty-One
Weseloh – David DeJesus
Allen – Manny Corpas
Willey – Johnny Cueto (Keeper, Second Time)
Keller – Jose Guillen
Nielsen – Elvis Andrus
Morris – Shin-Soo Choo
Schilb – Jonathan Sanchez
Kimball – Ryan Theriot
Johnson – Chris Iannetta
Wessley – Gavin Floyd

Round Twenty-Two
Wessley – Placido Polanco
Johnson – Chad Qualls
Kimball – Ian Stewart
Schilb – Miguel Tejada
Morris – Andy Pettitte
Nielsen – Clay Buchholz
Keller – Bronson Arroyo
Willey – Luke Scott
Allen – Jeff Francoeur
Weseloh – Jermaine Dye (Keeper, First Time)

Round Twenty-Three
Weseloh – John Baker
Allen – Colby Rasmus (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Pablo Sandoval
Keller – Adam LaRoche
Nielsen – Matt LaPorta
Morris – Chris Volstad
Schilb – Jhonny Peralta (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Jorge Posada
Johnson – Ian Snell
Wessley – Tony Pena (ARI)

Round Twenty-Four
Wessley – Steven Drew (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – Tommy Hanson
Kimball – Scott Baker (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Melvin Mora
Morris – Ervin Santana (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – John Smoltz
Keller – Chris Duncan
Willey – Andre Ethier (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Kevin Gregg
Weseloh – Travis Snider

Round Twenty-Five
Weseloh – Adam Jones (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – J.D. Drew
Willey – Clayton Kershaw (Keeper, First Time)
Keller – Aubrey Huff (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – Kelvim Escobar
Morris – Wandy Rodriguez
Schilb – Skip Schumaker
Kimball – Cliff Lee (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – Rick Porcello
Wessley – Carlos Delgado (Keeper, First Time)

Kept: The Andrew Wessley Story

(This is the beginning of the 10 part series that will breakdown everyone's keepers.)

Kept Players
Russell Martin (Round 10)
CC Sabathia (Round 14)
Carlos Delgado (Round 25)
Steven Drew (Round 24)
Jonathan Broxton (Round 15)

Last Year’s Record: 20-4
Division: Losers
Season Result: Division Winner, League Champion

Keeper Decision Scale: 5/10

The Good:
One cannot lose when one gets that kind of talent CC Sabathia has in the 14th round. Of course, there will always be the questions surrounding his weight, injury history and the pressure of New York. But Sabathia thrives under pressure (See: End of last season) and he has not been on the disabled list since early 2006 making Sabathia either due for an injury or continuing a trend of good health in 2009. I project the latter.

Russell Martin is an excellent value in the 10th round given the lightness of the catching position. Martin can hit for average and some power and can also steal bases. Andrew dominated stolen bases last season, which was one of the main reasons why he won The League in 2008.

Jonathan Broxton will be the young closer for the 2009 Los Angeles Dodgers and will not have a hard time finding save opportunities. The fifteenth round is very fair for him, maybe even a steal. There may be some concerns with him being 25 years old and closing for the first time in a big market, but Broxton has great stuff, which is evident by his 306 strikeouts in 241 career innings. Andrew will not regret this selection.

The Bad:
You should have kept K-Rod and Mariano Rivera. You won because of speed and saves, not because you had Carlos Delgado on your bench for half the season.

I understand the Steven Drew decision. Given the lack of depth at shortstop and the 24th round pick associated with Drew, it makes sense to me why you kept him. I could also understand the argument that Mariano Rivera is on the downside of his career and may not be the force he once was.

What I don’t understand is how you could consider Rodriguez a less valuable keeper prospect than Delgado? Especially when you admit that Delgado isn’t a starter on your 2009 team anyway? Clearly, you are willing to spend high draft picks on closers, why not keep Rodriguez and guarantee his starting position on your roster? Add one more top ten closer and your bullpen is about as dangerous, if not more, than it was last season.

Getting rid of both Rivera and Rodriguez was not the best situation you had on your table. And while it certainly doesn’t mean you’ll suck this year, it was not the best start you could have had.

The Story of CC Sabathia

He is a large man; towering and imposing. His face is a deep darkness, staring straight at you with an intensity that can be taken in by all the senses. He is impossible to miss.

There was no way, not with everything on the line, CC Sabathia was going to allow the cursed Cubs to take away the Brewers shot at a playoff berth. So with this in mind and on three days rest, Sabathia tossed a four-hit, seven strikeout gem that would send the Brewers to their first playoff appearance since Robin Yount manned shortstop. And as the Brewers celebrated, Andrew Wessley sat in his chair soaking in his first fantasy baseball title and thanking the baseball gods for the good fortune of having one CC Sabathia.

***

The road of CC Sabathia in The League is an odd story, one no one would expect.

As noted by Kyle Morris, Sabathia’s undrafted status in 2007 was hard to believe.

“That’s ridiculously hard to believe,” Morris said. “Considering he had a 3.22 ERA in 2006 the year before The League was started.” His disbelief was palpable. “Are you sure no one drafted him? I can’t imagine anyone who had an ERA under four going completely undrafted.”

But it was true. The first draft of the new The League was a tough one. Three individuals – Erik Johnson, Jeff Kimball and Casey Allen – failed to attend the draft. The absence of these individuals left The League Manager, Ben Nielsen, between a rock and a hard place.

“It was tough,” Nielsen said. “There was a lot going on. It was the first time I had ever run a live draft, three people were not there and Jason Wiley kept exiting the chat room. Between all of that and drafting for four people, I lost track of what was going on.”

And, apparently, so did many people in The League. While it was perfectly acceptable for individuals like Joel Schilb and Tony Allen to make absolutely ridiculous decisions, watching Wessley pass on Sabathia round after round made the whole situation more perplexing.

“I remember watching the draft thinking that somebody was going to take him,” Wessley may or may not have said. “I remember thinking maybe if I wait another round, I can get him even lower. Before I knew it, the draft was over and Sabathia was not selected. I was astonished. I am also gay.”

So there Sabathia was, alone and without a team. But he wouldn’t go unnoticed for long.

“I remember entering everyone’s draft,” Nielsen recalls. “I remember being about six or seven teams in and noticing that Sabathia was still there. I looked at the last team I had to enter and saw Sabathia wasn’t on that team either. I remember thinking, ‘Andrew is a retarded homosexual.’ Either that or I was thinking, ‘I’ve got to pick Sabathia up right after I finalize the draft.’ One of those two. Maybe both. Probably both.”

Immediately after the draft was entered, Nielsen picked Sabathia up off of waivers and added him to his team. He thought he had a steal.

“I thought I had a steal,” Nielsen said.

But, for some reason unknown to man or Nielsen, Sabathia was mysteriously dropped from the Inoculators roster.

“I have no idea what happened or why I decided to drop him before week two - I’ll never know,” Nielsen said.

He’ll never know because after the first week of the season, ESPN had a major malfunction that required all of the rosters to be reset. The resetting of all the rosters permanently erased all knowledge of Sabathia’s addition or subtraction. What we do know is that, in week two, Sabathia appears on Johnson’s roster, netting him 41 points in a win over Nielsen’s Inoculators.

“Fate is a bitch,” Nielsen quipped.

Between April 10 and July 29, Sabathia was who we thought he was, so we justifiably crowned his ass. Sabathia struck out 143 batters and won 12 games for the Indians in that span and pushed Johnson into The League lead.

“I was happy to take Nielsen’s trash,” Johnson assholishly said. “As a matter of fact, I also picked up Ryan Braun after Ben dropped him. Nielsen pretty much won The League for me that year.”

“Bastard,” Nielsen said.

On August 1st, Andrew Wessley was in the midst of one of the worst fantasy seasons in history. I mean he sucked bad. For some reason unknown to intelligent man, he traded all of his best players to Nielsen for all of his worst players, putting him in a situation at the trading deadline where he was looking to add a keeper or two for the 2008 season.

“Ben Nielsen has to be the greatest baseball mind I have ever known,” Wessley recalled. “I mean, he’s just so freaking smart. If he was luckier, he would dominate this league hands down. Unfortunately for him, I’m the luckiest bastard in the world so… yeah, I’m gay.”

Wessley, looking for keeper prospects, turned to Johnson who was in a playoff chase with Nielsen and was looking to add one more arm to put him over the top.

“He wanted Hamels,” Wessley remembered. “While I really felt Hamels was a good keeper prospect, I felt that Sabathia was a better one. And since he went undrafted, it just made that much more sense for me to part ways with Hamels and add Sabathia.”

Wessley sent Cole Hamels, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Fausto Carmona to Johnson for Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia. Wessley would keep both Verlander and Sabathia for the 2008 season.

“I still to this day have no idea how Sabathia wasn’t drafted,” Wessley said.

“I do,” Nielsen said. “I was drafting for freaking half The League and Andrew, Tony and Joel are all idiots. How, in the comfort of your own home and with nothing to do in between picks, could you possibly miss the fact that CC Sabathia was not drafted? Seriously, how stupid do you have to be? Furthermore, how stupid to you have to be to agree to draft for four people? I think it must be noted that three of the four teams that made the playoffs that year were drafted by me – nobody ever recognizes this. I’m bitter! And Andrew is gay.”

Point taken.

2009 Keepers

Ben Nielsen’s Keepers
Evan Longoria (1st Time – Round 18)
Ryan Braun (2nd Time – Round 14)
Carlos Quentin (1st Time – Round 15)
Josh Hamilton (1st Time – Round 17)
Joba Chamberlain – 1st Time – Round 19)

Erik Johnson’s Keepers
Tim Lincecum (2nd Time – Round 14)
Cole Hamels (2nd Time – Round 20)
Chad Billingsley (1st Time – Round 8)
Josh Beckett (2nd Time – Round 15)
Prince Fielder (2nd Time – Round 13)

Jason Wiley’s Keepers
Johnny Cueto (1st Time – Round 21)
Brad Lidge (1st Time – Round 12)
Andre Ethier (1st Time – Round 24)
Clayton Kershaw (1st Time – Round 25)
Jay Bruce (1st Time – Round 18)

Tony Allen’s Keepers
Jacoby Ellsbury (1st Time – Round 15)
Colby Rasmus (1st Time – Round 23)
Ryan Ludwick (1st Time – Round 13)
Edinson Volquez (1st Time – Round 14)
Dustin Pedroia (1st Time – Round 12)

Joel Schilb’s Keepers
Matt Holliday (2nd Time – Round 5)
Ryan Dempster (1st Time – Round 15)
Jhonny Peralta (1st Time – Round 23)
Geovany Soto (1st Time – Round 11)
Alexei Ramierez (1st Time – Round 14)

Jeff Weseloh’s Keepers
Lance Berkman (1st Time – Round 4)
Ian Kinsler (1st Time – Round 8)
Zack Greinke (1st Time – Round 13)
Adam Jones (1st Time – Round 25)
Jermaine Dye (1st Time – Round 22)

Jeff Kimball’s Keepers
Jonathan Papelbon (2nd Time – Round 14)
Shane Victorino (1st Time – Round 16)
Scott Baker (1st Time – Round 24)
Cliff Lee (1st Time – Round 25)
Josh Johnson (1st Time – Round 15)

Adam Keller’s Keepers
Jimmy Rollins (2nd Time – Round 4)
Dan Haren (2nd Time – Round 11)
Dan Uggla (1st Time – Round 17)
Aubrey Huff (1st Time – Round 25)
Ricky Nolasco (1st Time – Round 14)

Kyle Morris’ Keepers
Magglio Ordonez (2nd Time – Round 16)
Ervin Santana (1st Time – Round 24)
Jason Bay (1st Time – Round 18)
Joakim Soria (1st Time – Round 17)
Alfonso Soriano (1st Time – Round 5)

Andrew Wessley’s Keepers
Russell Martin (2nd Time – Round 10)
CC Sabathia (2nd Time – Round 14)
Carlos Delgado (1st Time – Round 25)
Steven Drew (1st Time – Round 24)
Jonathan Broxton (1st Time – Round 15)

Erik: Ben Has Options

Here's the next baseball blog after along absence:
Now that Andrew has added another fantasy football championship to his collection, I gladly continue to look forward to fantasy baseball.

The team that has the most decisions to make this offseason is The Inoculators. By my count, Ben has 16 legitimate keeper candidates. At different points since last season ended, Ben has said he wanted all five of his keepers to be hitters or pitchers. With no idea what to expect from The Inoculators heading into 2009, I will take an unbiased look at what Ben could/should do.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

James Shields – 8
Clay Buchholz – 13
Jon Lester - 15
Josh Hamilton – 17
Evan Longoria – 18
Joba Chamberlain – 19
Matt Garza - 19
Cameron Maybin - 23
Joey Votto – 24
David Price – 25
Jair Jurrjens - 27
Mike Pelfrey - Undrafted
Mike Aviles – Undrafted
Carlos Quentin – Undrafted
Justin Upton - Undrafted
Ryan Braun – Undrafted

Assuming Ben decides to keep all hitters or pitchers, let’s take a look at his options:

Possible Hitters

Josh Hamilton
Evan Longoria
Cameron Maybin
Joey Votto
Mike Aviles
Carlos Quentin
Justin Upton
Ryan Braun

Despite their youth, I would consider Hamilton, Longoria and Braun three sure-fire All-Stars that Ben could build his team around. The White Sox’ Quentin went crazy last year before a wrist injury derailed his breakout campaign. It would have been nice for The Inoculators to see a full year’s worth of that production before locking him up as a keeper. Upton and Maybin have a world of potential, but the jury is out on when they will begin to recognize that potential. Votto quietly had a stellar rookie year and looks to benefit from playing 81 games per year in Cincinnati.

Possible Pitchers

James Shields
Clay Buchholz
Jon Lester
Joba Chamberlain
Matt Garza
David Price
Jair Jurrjens
Mike Pelfrey

Tying your fate to young pitchers is a risky endeavor unless you have the depth to replace from within when the inevitable injury takes place. Starting at the top, Shields is a very solid #2 pitcher but not an amazing value in the eighth round. Lester became one of the best pitchers in the game down the stretch last year. However, Lester, along with Shields, Chamberlain, Garza and Price, plays in the power-hungry American League East which can be a nightmare for pitchers and the fantasy nerd who owns them. On top of pitching in the AL East, Chamberlain has no clear role heading into next season and might not be worth the keeper spot if he stays in the set-up role all season. Price is an amazing talent who has the potential to be absolutely dominating. However, it is not yet known how the Rays will use Price to limit his workload in ’09. Finally, Jair Jurrjens had a great season in 2009, but he might not have the firepower in the strikeout department to earn keeper-status.

Expected Keepers for the Inoculators

Josh Hamilton – 17
Evan Longoria – 18
David Price - 25
Ryan Braun – Undrafted
Carlos Quentin - Undrafted

Although Ben says he wants to keep all hitters or pitchers, I think the potential of Price will win him over. With the other four spots, the hitters will win out because of their increased value in The League last year and a line-up centered around Hamilton in center, Quentin in right, Braun in left and Longoria at third will be hard to match-up with. Keeping these hitters will also allow Ben to fill in his pitching early as he won’t cost himself any early draft picks.

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 1 of 4: I rank Ben’s team first for two reasons. Number one, he has the best list of keepers so far. Number two, Ben always gets ranked first and never finishes there. With that in mind, I’ll rank him first and hope that the outcome is the same.
In all honesty, nobody can match up with the value Ben could have with Hamilton, Longoria and Braun. With those three, The Inoculators could have three top ten players with none being drafted higher than the 17th round. The only negative to these predicted keepers is the lack of established pitching, and injury risk.

Hamilton, Price and Quentin have all had injury issues in the past and none have performed at a consistently high level for more than one year. With that being said, The Inoculators could be the team to beat heading into 2009 ... but we all know that won't really happen.

Erik: Cliff Lee Is A Keeper

After back-to-back playoff appearances, the Phantom Menace’s will attempt to get over the hump in 2009 by constantly reminding everyone how they drafted Cliff Lee in the 27th-round last year.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

Manny Ramirez – 4
Jose Valverde – 10
Jered Weaver – 11
Phil Hughes - 12
Scott Kazmir – 15
Shane Victorino – 16
Scott Baker – 24
Cliff Lee - 27
Ryan Doumit – Undrafted
Jorge Cantu – Undrafted
Nate McLouth – Undrafted
Denard Span – Undrafted
Josh Johnson – Undrafted

Something tells me that Kimball might keep Cliff Lee. Assuming that does happen, the Phantom Menace’s have four open spots and a lot of high-ceiling players who are unproven at the major-league level.

I don’t believe Kimball will keep Manny or Valverde because of their higher price tags in terms of the round they were drafted. I also don’t think keeping Hughes would be a good decision given the uncertainty of his situation going into 2009.

That leaves Weaver, Kazmir, Victorino, Baker, Doumit, Cantu, McLouth, Span and Johnson to fill the remaining four slots. Weaver is a solid third starting pitcher but doesn’t offer outstanding value in the eleventh round. Instead, I expect Kimball to take a hard look at Baker who offers many of the same attributes as Weaver but for a fraction of the cost. Kazmir was kept by Kimball last year and shows very good value in the 15th-round. However, I see Kazmir being released because of his inconsistency and past arm troubles.

Victorino is an interesting player in that he is not the superstar people look for but he managed to score nearly 700 points last year. Add in a full-year of a healthy Jimmy Rollins and Victorino’s numbers should only increase.

With the final few spots, I expect Kimball to look to his undrafted players. Nate McLouth came out of nowhere last year to hit 26 bombs and steal 23 bags. If he can come close to those numbers again this year, he would be an absolute steal for the Phantom Menaces. Finally, I think Kimball will take a chance on Josh Johnson with his last keeper spot. Johnson came back from arm surgery last season and posted an impressive line of 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA. Assuming his health improves, Johnson should only improve on those numbers next year.

Expected Keepers for the Phantom Menaces

Shane Victorino – 16
Scott Baker – 24
Cliff Lee – 27
Nate McLouth – Undrafted
Josh Johnson – Undrafted

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 2 of 3: Kimball’s possible keepers fall right in line with the keepers from Andrew and Tony’s teams. Victorino and McLouth offer great value in the outfield for Kimball much the same way Ludwick and Ellsbury do for Tony. What makes the Phantom Menaces’ situation so interesting is the pitching. I don’t think anybody knows what to expect out of Baker, Lee or Johnson this year. Baker is a younger pitcher who has never replicated numbers at the major-league level. Lee had never really come close to Cy Young status before last year and Johnson is still not that far removed from surgery. So far, the keeper possibilities from Andrew, Kimball and Tony all line up very similar to one another with Sabathia and Martin nudging Andrew to the top of the heap.