Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Kimball Redux: The Rise of the Odd Man

After five weeks, Kimball has scored the most fantasy points of any team this season. He completed this after I questioned both his keeper and draft strategies. Through the first five weeks, I look pretty stupid (not the first time, won’t be the last).

Here is a re-rundown of Kimball’s draft through the perspective of the first five weeks. Sure a lot of things can change in the next 19, but we haven’t gotten that far yet.


Round One
Justin Morneau

There were five first basemen taken in the first 18 picks of the draft. Here is where they rank in fantasy points as of Monday:

1 Albert Pujols – 237 (1)
2 Justin Morneau – 165 (3)
3 Miguel Cabrera – 146 (10)
4 Ryan Howard – 128 (15)
5 Mark Teixeira – 125 (17)

At least in terms of the first five weeks, one had a better shot at choosing a poor first baseman than a highly producing one. When one factors in that Pujols was almost a dead lock to go first overall, that means one had 1-in-4 chance of choosing a top 5 first basemen. Kimball ended up with the guy Kyle, Andrew and Jason thought they were getting.

Granted, Teixeira, Howard and Cabrera will not do this poorly all season (in comparison to other first basemen), but I’m sure Kyle would have rather had Morneau over Teixeira the past five weeks.

Round Two
Roy Halladay

Stud. I said when Kimball drafted him I felt he was one of only three guys worth taking in the first three to four rounds (Johan Santana and Brandon Webb were the other two) and Halladay did not disappoint. Hey, I do get some things right every once in a while…

Round Three
Alex Gordon

He’s on the DL, so he’s technically a bust. He’ll have to have a huge second half to justify going in the third round.

Round Four
Alex Rios

Rios is apparently the only Blue Jay who cannot hit. He’s the second early season bust in a row for Kimball. Out of his first four picks, two have been busts so far.

Round Five
Robinson Cano

Second base has been loaded so far this season. Three of the top four second basemen were not even drafted (Marco Scutaro, Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill). Chase Utley, Brain Roberts and Brandon Phillips aren’t even in the top five, that’s how loaded second base is.

So, saying Cano is rated 8th isn’t so bad. I’m sure Kimball is doing just fine with his .321 average, 21 runs, 6 homers and 18 runs batted in.

Round Six
Joey Votto

Third rated pure first basemen, fifth amongst all first base eligible players. Votto has 156 points in the Utility spot for Kimball, which I’m assuming is in the top half of The League right now… but I don’t know if that is true.

Round Seven
John Danks

He has had a couple of bad starts, but overall Danks has been one of the more reliable pitchers in the first five weeks. And given some of the other pitchers taken ahead of him (i.e. Scott Kazmir, Kevin Slowey, Daisuke Matsuzaka… the list goes on), Danks almost looks like a steal at round seven.

Round Eight
Yunel Escobar

A bit of a bust here so far, but it’s a position where really nobody has been any good. Rollins, Reyes and Ramirez have all slumped (by their standards) so far. But he was never going to have a shot at any of them as Rollins was kept and Reyes and Ramirez were off the board. Round eight was high, but it hasn’t killed him so far.

Ryan Theriot has been playing better than Escobar and has been starting for Kimball.

Round Nine
Joe Saunders

An unbelievable reach, but is the only guy who can beat Greinke. Right…

His shutout of the Royals skews his total season value a little bit, but he’s been a very consistent pitcher for Kimball, which is more than what most of the top 10 round pitchers can say.

Round Ten
J.J. Putz

30 fantasy points this season. Thirty.

Round Eleven
Ted Lilly

Lilly is 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA… yet he wasn’t drafted in the top 10 rounds. Pitching was so oddly and poorly drafted this season.

Round Twelve
Mike Gonzalez

Has been a solid closer so far.

Round Thirteen
Pat Burrell

A bust so far, but you can take a bit of a hit like this at round thirteen.

Round Fourteen
Jonathan Papelbon (Keeper, Second Time)

Has been shaky at moments, but has been a top closer so far.

Round Fifteen
Josh Johnson (Keeper, First Time)

A top five starting pitcher in the first five weeks. 15th round. Of course.

Round Sixteen
Shane Victorino (Keeper, First Time)

Victorino is tied for fifth amongst pure centerfielders and seventh amongst all centerfield eligible players. Shane is essentially a second-tier centerfielder right now, which isn’t bad for a sixteenth round keeper.

Round Seventeen
Scott Shields


Round Eighteen
Bengie Molina

Before 2008: .310/.407/.717, 86 OPS+
2008: .322/.445/.731, 98 OPS+
2009: .289/.555/.844, 112 OPS+

Round Nineteen
David Murphy


Round Twenty
Mike Pelfrey


Round Twenty-One
Ryan Theriot

Has played better than Escobar, and is a top five pure shortstop.

Round Twenty-Two
Ian Stewart


Round Twenty-Three
Jorge Posada

He’s on the DL right now, but he had a great start to the season, hitting .312, 5 homers and 20 RBI.

Round Twenty-Four
Scott Baker (Keeper, First Time)


Round Twenty-Five
Cliff Lee (Keeper, First Time)

Lee has five straight quality starts and 23 strikeouts… and is 1-3 in those starts (1-5 on the season).


Now some of you will view this post as an elaborate way for me to jinx Kimball – and if I had written this a season or two ago, I would have agreed with you. But what I have found is that none of my voodoo magic ever works on my opposing fantasy players. So with this said, a large tip of my hat to Mr. Kimball, for somehow defying the laws of logic to create what has been the most productive fantasy team in The League for the first five weeks. Well done, good sir. You are a gentleman and a scholar.*

*This doesn’t mean I don’t hate you right now, though.


A Dub said...

Shouldnt this post be called "Rise of the OLD man" instead of Odd Man?

Sorry Kimball...I had to.

Kimball said...

Since I have been following baseball almost as long as some of you have been alive, I will concede the "old" comment.

Thanks, Ben, for a more reasoned and objective analysis of my draft. (Six hundred points ought to purchase some respect, right, Andrew?) That piece-of-crap, waste-of-time nonsense you posted the first time was nothing short of ridiculous. You can do better than and I'm glad you've done so. You can now go back to dumping half your roster on a daily basis and trading the other half to Andrew.

In my defense, my draft was not perfect. I had a strategy that I thought would work, improvised, and made some blunders. Who hasn't? So who cares? It's so difficult to tell because the baseball season is so gloriously long which part of the challenge and part of the fun. And if it's not fun, then what's the point?

So continued good luck to all of you the rest of the summer. Except Ben and Andrew.


Erik said...

Holy crap, Kimball just commented on a blog!

Ben said...


And it was glorious.

Kimball said...

Yes, it was glorious.