Erik: Lack of Dominate Pitcher Hurts Tony

Today I will analyze the keeper situation for the San Antonio Saints … even if I am unsure as to whether Tony is actually living in San Antonio or not.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted
John Lackey – 3
Adam Wainwright – 6
Brian McCann – 7
Gil Meche – 11
Dustin Pedroia – 12
Kevin Youkilis – 12
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15
Colby Rasmus – 23
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
David Murphy – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted
Kyle Lohse – Undrafted

Two things jump out to me when I look at Tony’s list of potential keepers:

1. I think his ultimate goal is to fill his roster with completely with Cardinals and Red Sox.
2. Our league is full of morons. First, I write about Andrew keeping the undrafted C.C. Sabathia and now I see Volquez and Ludwick were undrafted. Now I understand that these guys were under the radar coming into last year, but for nobody to take a flyer on them in the late rounds … I think that puts us on par with Johnny Knoxville on an IQ test.

Looking at the Saints’ list of possibilities, nobody really jumps out at me as an absolute must-keep. However, Volquez and Pedroia are pretty close. It will be interesting to see how Volquez bounces back from a sub-par second half and a career high in innings thrown. As for Pedroia, I find it hard to believe that he will duplicate his 2008 MVP season, but he will still put up great numbers for a second basemen and 12th round pick.

Once you get by Volquez and Pedroia, Tony will have some very difficult decisions. Luckily for me, I can refer back to his ultimate goal and get a good idea who he will keep.

Wainwright will be looking to make the jump into the league’s elite pitchers in 2009, but could be a little pricey at a 6th round pick give his recent injury struggles. So, with that Cardinal out of the picture, I think Tony will turn to his 23rd-rounder from last year Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is a great prospect and a great value at the 23rd round, but questions still remain about whether he will break camp with the big league club next year.

With one Cardinal already in the outfield, Tony will look to add a second with Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick had an amazing 2008 season, coming out of nowhere to hit almost .300 with 37 homers. With his undrafted status, Tony adds another solid Cardinal to his team.

With his last keeper spot, I expect Tony to stay true to his rule and choose between two BoSox, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury. Youkilis is a great hitter and good value in the 12th round, but Ellsbury has a higher upside, was a 15th rounder, and should get even more playing time this year with the cereal man out of the picture.

Expected Keepers for the Saints
Dustin Pedroia – 12th
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15th
Colby Rasmus – 23rd
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 2 of 2: Tony is in solid position to improve on his struggles from 2008 with this solid group of keepers. If Pedroia and Ludwick are able to duplicate their ’08 campaigns (which I think is a little unlikely in both cases) and Ellsbury and Rasums follow their projected path, Tony could have one of the most dangerous line-ups in 2009 and not use anything higher than a 12th round pick on his keepers. The only thing that pushes Tony below Andrew is the lack of a dominant pitcher. Volquez and Wainwright have the possibilities, but I am not ready to say either is in the elite category yet. Of course, there is always the possibility that Tony throws me for a loop by keeping Wainwright, Rasmus, Ludwick. Lohse and Carpenter.

Erik: Andrew is Number 1 (of 1)!

With the winter meetings having come to a close, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the keeper situations facing each of the ten teams The League.

With that wonderful introduction in place, we will now take a look at the reigning champions, Hancocks Halos.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

Brian Roberts – 3

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 4

Francisco Rodriguez – 6

Conor Jackson – 9

Justin Verlander – 11

Ubaldo Jimenez – 14

Rick Ankiel – 21

Stephen Drew – 24

Carlos Delgado – 28

John Danks – Undrafted

Russell Martin – Undrafted

Carlos Gomez – Undrafted

CC Sabathia – Undrafted

The most talked about baseball player over the last six months headlines the potential keepers for Andrew. Sabathia was dominant in the second half last year and along with Johan Santana helped carry the Halos to The League Title. The big question here is not whether Andrew will keep Sabathia but rather how will Sabathia fare with the Yankees. He moves into a power-heavy division with the burden of a $161 million contract (think of all the Hostess snacks he could/will buy with that much money) on his shoulders having just thrown well over 400+ innings in the last two years combined. I think he will be a steal for Andrew given his undrafted status, but I don’t expect him to equal the second half he put together last year at any time in the 2009 season.

Assuming Sabathis is kept, that would leave four slots open for Andrew with many viable options, but no sure things. Roberts, Matsuzaka, Rodriguez and Jackson would all be solid values if kept, but probably are not the great values Andrew will be looking for with his keeper spots.

Next on the list as far as intrigue goes is Justin Verlander. Verlander struggled greatly last season as his control and velocity took a gigantic step back from their 2007 form. Having said that, Verlander has the highest upside of any of the players remaining for Andrew, but his disastrous 2008 season would make keeping Verlander a big risk at the cost of a 10^th-round pick (this would be Verlander’s second season to be kept). Right behind Verlander in terms of upside is Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has an electric arm and showed signs of putting things together last year for the Rockies. He offers Andrew much of the same upside of Verlander will a little less risk and could be a guy to keep an eye on.

Carlos Delgado is an interesting situation as well. Delgado stumbled out of the gates last year but caught fire in the middle of the year and turned out to be one of the top values from last year’s draft. Delgado is obviously getting up there in age and it will be interesting to see if Andrew thinks Delgado can keep it together for at least one more season. The big plus for the Halos is that if they keep Delgado and he bombs next year, they will have only wasted a 28^th round pick.

Russell Martin is another of the undrafted players I expect Andrew to keep (how could Sabathia and Martin go undrafted two years ago – I keep checking the draft results expecting that I have just overlooked Martin, but I can’t find him anywhere). Martin is a solid player at a weak position and would be a great value for Andrew.

Expected Keepers for Hancock Halos

Jimenez – 14th

Delgado – 28th

Sabathia – Undrafted

Danks – Undrafted

Martin - Undrafted

Ranking of possible keepers: 1 of 1. Andrew has a solid group of keeper possibilities headlined by the undrafted trio of Sabathia, Danks and Martin. The group as a whole lacks a certain amount of upside, but provides solid value for the reigning champs. I think this group will put Andrew in position to field a very solid team this year but he will probably be at a slight disadvantage to a few teams heading into the draft.

Baseball Begins!!! (In four months...)

Hey, it’s the winter meetings and you know what that means… nothing. But, hey, why not talk a little baseball to remind us that the next losing season for the Royals begins in about four months. Yipee.

Mostly, I start this blog up again for three reasons: First, Erik says he has a series he wants to unleash on you so you should check back often to see what he says about you; Second, I’m writing for a Royals blog called “The Royal Treatment” so you should check that out every once in a while (I’m BlownSave…what are the odds?); Finally, I wanted to remind you of some of the changes for next season – hopefully there will be no more major changes for the life of this league.

Roster Changes

Roster size = 25 (Down from 28)

Designated Hitter = eliminated
Utility Player = added
Starting Pitching Spots = 3 (down from 5)
General Pitching Spot = 1 (up from 0)
Relief Pitching Spots = 3 (up from 2)

Notes:
The Utility player addition comes by popular demand... The amount of bench spots has been reduced by three in order to limit stockpiling of players and to maintain the value of the free agent market… The total amount of starters (hitters and pitchers) has not changed and there is no limit to how many times a player can be started or how many innings a player can play… The reduction of the two starting pitcher spot is to make room for the added relief pitcher position and general pitching position… The general pitching spot can be filled by either a starter or reliever.

Point Changes

Hitting: All hitting statistics will remain the same.

Pitching:

H = -0.5 (adjusted from –1)
BB = -0.5 (adjusted from –1.5)
K = 2 (adjusted from 3)
W = 5 (adjusted from 10)
L = -5 (adjusted from –10)
QS = 10 (adjusted from 5)

Added Statistic: Holds = 2.5

Notes:
I have heard minimal complaints about the hitting formula so I will no changes will be made… The changes to W, L, QS are being made as to better reflect a pitcher’s performance and not his team’s… I had no idea how to quantify a “hold” in fantasy terms so I just made it half a save – feel free to send suggestions on holds.

Keeper Rules for This Offseason

Total Keepers Allowed: 5
Trade Deadline with 2008 Rosters: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Keeper Deadline: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Proposed Draft Date: Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 3 p.m.
- Players drafted in the first or second round in 2008 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- View the previous post for players who are ineligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players count as a 15th round pick (Multiple undrafted players will count as a 15th, 14th, etc. round draft pick).

A correction to the list of ineligible keepers:

Jonathan Papelbon is available to be kept. That was my error.

Rule/Point/Keeper Changes

The following are the proposed changes for next season:

Roster Changes

Roster size = 25 (Down from 28)

Designated Hitter = eliminated
Utility Player = added
Starting Pitching Spots = 3 (down from 5)
General Pitching Spot = 1 (up from 0)
Relief Pitching Spots = 3 (up from 2)

Notes:
The Utility player addition comes by popular demand... The amount of bench spots has been reduced by three in order to limit stockpiling of players and to maintain the value of the free agent market… The total amount of starters (hitters and pitchers) has not changed and there is no limit to how many times a player can be started or how many innings a player can play… The reduction of the two starting pitcher spot is to make room for the added relief pitcher position and general pitching position… The general pitching spot can be filled by either a starter or reliever.

Point Changes

Hitting: All hitting statistics will remain the same.

Pitching:

H = -0.5 (adjusted from –1)
BB = -0.5 (adjusted from –1.5)
K = 2 (adjusted from 3)
W = 5 (adjusted from 10)
L = -5 (adjusted from –10)
QS = 10 (adjusted from 5)

Added Statistic: Holds = 2.5

Notes:
I have heard minimal complaints about the hitting formula so I will no changes will be made… The changes to W, L, QS are being made as to better reflect a pitcher’s performance and not his team’s… I had no idea how to quantify a “hold” in fantasy terms so I just made it half a save – feel free to send suggestions on holds.

Keeper Rules for This Offseason

Total Keepers Allowed: 5
Trade Deadline with 2008 Rosters: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Keeper Deadline: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Proposed Draft Date: Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 3 p.m.
- Players drafted in the first or second round in 2008 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- Players who were kept coming into this season who were drafted in the first or second round of 2007 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players from 2008 ARE eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players from 2007 who were kept coming into this season ARE eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players count as a 15th round pick
- Multiple undrafted players will count as a 15th, 14th, etc. round draft pick.

Here is the list of UNELIGIBLE keepers:
Vladimir Guerrero
Hanley Ramirez
Johan Santana
Jose Reyes
Albert Pujols
Chase Utley
Alex Rodriguez
Brandon Webb
Grady Sizemore
David Wright
Carl Crawford
Brandon Phillips
Ryan Howard
Ichiro Suzuki
Carlos Beltran
B.J. Upton
David Ortiz
Mark Teixeira
Carlos Zambrano
Carlos Lee
Justin Morneau
Troy Tulowitzki

Draft rounds three through twenty-eight:
(Note: The following players are eligible to be kept after this season is finished. Additional keeper rules are noted at the end of the post.)

Round Three
Roy Oswalt
Alex Rios
Victor Martinez
Nick Markakis
Miguel Cabrera (two years left of keeper eligibility)
John Lackey
Aramis Ramirez
Brian Roberts
Felix Hernandez
Travis Hafner (two years left of keeper eligibility)

Round Four
John Smoltz
Derrek Lee
Manny Ramirez
Garret Atkins (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Fausto Carmona
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Joe Mauer (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Derek Jeter
Jake Peavy (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Lance Berkman

Round Five
Yovani Gallardo
Alfonso Soriano
Tim Hudson
J.J. Putz
Carlos Guillen
Chipper Jones
Jimmy Rollins (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Roy Halladay

Round Six
Hunter Pence
Jeff Francis
Michael Young
Matt Holliday (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Hideki Matsui
Adam Wainwright
Chris Young
Francisco Rodriguez
Eric Byrnes
Alex Gordon

Round Seven
Matt Kemp
Robinson Cano
Mike Lowell
Miguel Tejada
Brad Penny
Brian McCann
Takashi Saito
Carlos Pena
Chone Figgins
Joe Nathan

Round Eight
Chad Billingsley
Khalil Greene
Aaron Rowand
Javier Vazquez
Ben Sheets
James Shields
Brett Meyers
Brad Hawpe
Matt Cain
Ian Kinsler

Round Nine
Ryan Zimmerman
Chien-Ming Wang
Conner Jackson
Torii Hunter
Francisco Liriano
Orlando Hudson
Chris B. Young
Mariano Rivera
Placido Polanco
Adrian Gonzalez

Round Ten
A.J. Burnett
Jose Valverde
Jorge Posada
Pat Burrell
Johnny Damon
Billy Wagner
Kelvim Escobar
Gary Sheffield
Jim Thome
Adrian Beltre

Round Eleven
Jeremy Bonderman
Bobby Jenks
Jered Weaver
Pedro Martinez
Francisco Cordero
Gil Meche
John Maine
Justin Verlander (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Geovany Soto
Kenji Johjima

Round Twelve
Howie Kendrick
Brad Lidge
Billy Butler
Dustin Pedroia
James Loney
Kevin Youkilis
Dan Haren (two years left of eligibility)
Rich Hill
Phil Hughes
Joe Blanton

Round Thirteen
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Varitek
Kosuke Fukudome
Dustin McGowan
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jason Isringhausen
Cory Hart
Todd Helton
Clay Buchholtz
Zack Greinke

Round Fourteen
Oliver Perez
Dontrelle Willis
Mark Buehrle
Huston Street
Rafael Soriano
Al Reyes
Derrek Lowe
Ian Snell
Ubaldo Jimenez
Greg Maddux

Round Fifteen
Rich Harden
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Kazmir (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Jeremy Guthrie
Brian Bannister
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jeff Francoeur
Jon Lester
Randy Johnson
Joe Borowski

Round Sixteen
Mark Prior
Juan Pierre
Shane Victorino
Josh Beckett (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Hiroki Kuroda
Jacque Jones
Micah Owings
Vernon Wells
Homer Bailey
Andy Pettitte

Round Seventeen
Nick Swisher
Chad Cordero
Tom Gorzelanny
Coco Crisp
Magglio Ordonez (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Edgar Renteria
Dan Uggla
Bronson Arroyo
Joakim Soria
Josh Hamilton

Round Eighteen
Jay Bruce
Ty Wiggington
J.J. Hardy
Dave Bush
Paul Konerko
Jason Bay
Michael Bourn
Shaun Marcum
Evan Longoria
Andruw Jones

Round Nineteen
Joba Chamberlain
Erik Bedard (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Jeremy Accardo
Michael Cuddyer
Matt Capps
Jorge Cantu
Delmon Young
Manny Corpas
Matt Garza
J.D. Drew

Round Twenty
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Jeff Kent
Melky Cabrera
Barry Zito
Kevin Gregg
Frank Thomas
Todd Jones
Kelly Johnson
Kerry Wood
David DeJesus

Round Twenty-one
Cole Hamels (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Johnny Cueto
Yorvit Torrealba
Rick Ankiel
Curtis Granderson (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Chris Duncan
Jack Cust
Carlos Marmol
Rickie Weeks
Chad Tracy

Round Twenty-two
Rafael Furcal
Jason Giambi
Aaron Cook
Jake Westbrook
Tony Pena
Nate Robinson
Kyle Kendrick
Josh Fields
Jermaine Dye
Kevin Correia

Round Twenty-three
Cameron Maybin
Adam Miller
Freddy Sanchez
Jhonny Peralta
Franklin Morales
Colby Rasmus
Bengie Molina
Bartolo Colon
Andrew Miller
Chris Sampson

Round Twenty-four
Joey Votto
Chuck James
Scott Baker
Brandon Lyon
Ervin Santana
Hideki Okajima
Tom Glavine
Steven Drew
J.R. Towels
Adam Jones

Round Twenty-five
David Price
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Church
Ramon Hernandez
Kenny Rogers
Braden Looper
Josh Willingham
Daniel Cabrera
Tim Wakefield
Jhonny Estrada

Round Twenty-six
Clayton Kershaw
Yunel Escobar
Hank Blaylock
Pat Neshek
Lastings Millage
Troy Glaus
Aubrey Huff
Jon Garland
Brandon Wood
Jeff Suppan

Round Twenty-seven
Andre Either
Cliff Lee
Paul Byrd
Gustavo Chachin
Ryan Garko
Jair Jurrjens
Willie Blumquest

Round Twenty-eight
Carlos Delgado
Shawn Hill
Mark Mulder

A Really Overdue Blog Post

Note to self: Working with SPED kids does not increase blog productivity.

Additional Note to Self: Not having the internet seriously hinders posting on blogs.

One More Note to Self: Not having a computer makes having the internet difficult.

Next topic!

***

This season is only eight days away from being over. THANK GOD!!! What a disastrous season it has been. Any time Andrew has the number one seeded team and 20 wins should tip people off that something extremely foul is afoot. Seriously, 20 wins for Andrew? Really??? And what the hell is Joel doing in the playoffs? Andrew and Joel are living proof that anybody, ANYBODY, can win a fantasy league.

Anyway, we’ll do this whole season in review thing later. For now, there are still those 8 days we have to mercilessly live through.

WHAT IS BECOMING THE OBVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Baring something insane happening, Andrew and Erik are going to be playing for the league title. I hope they both lose.

Each team is built on pitching and has multiple guys with over 400 points.

Andrew: CC Sabathia, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Johan Santana

Erik: Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Rich Harden, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett

While Erik clearly has a pitching edge he almost losses all of it because of his poor lineup. Erik has four hitters who have yet to hit 400 points on the season and only three who have passed the 600-point plateau. In comparison, Andrew has just one starting hitter who has yet to surpass 600 points. To add to Erik’s problems, it is likely Gary Sheffield will be suspended for a few games this week (baring an appeal) and will leave Erik without a legit DH for championship week.

There will be more on this Monday.

CHECK THE BLOG SUNDAY

I have already written and scheduled for a post to show up Sunday that will detail Keeper rules and point changes for next season. Please get back to me after you read the post with your thoughts and comments.

About those point changes...

When I did the goofy point changes for this week, I put notes on each one thinking that everyone could read them. Well, apparently, you guys cannot do that for some reason, so I’m going to copy and past those here and give you a chance to read them.

Smurfs vs. Roid Needles

Smurfs - Plus 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

CRN - Added 220 Home Run Derby points to CRN from the production of Justin Morneau (22). Subtracted 220 points for stealing away the title from Josh Hamilton. Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

Rasmus’ vs. Boom Goes the Dynamite

Rasmus’ - Added 10 points for not have Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtracted 10 points for having Ryan Ludwick on your roster.

BGtD - Added 60 Home Run Derby points to BGD for the performance of Dan Uggla (6). Subtract 160 for Dan Uggla's performance in the All-Star game. Subtract 10 points for having Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtract 10 points for having a terrible fantasy name.

Hancock’s Halos vs. The Zou

Halos – Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtracted 60 points for being a douche and hogging all the luck this season.

The Zou - Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

Rolorado Cockies vs. KC

Cockies – Added 60 Home Run Derby points to RC from the performance of Grady Sizemore (6). Subtracted 1130 points for being a Cardinals fan and thus being related in some fashion to Joe Buck.

KC - Added 140 Home Run Derby points to KC from the performance of Lance Berkman (14). Subtracted 1140 points for beating BSI by .5 points last week.

Inoculators vs. Phantom Menaces

Inoculators – Added 520 Home Run Derby points to BSI from the performance of Josh Hamilton (35), Ryan Braun (14) and Evan Longoria (3). Added 435.5 points in tribute to last week's hard luck loss. Added 45.5 points for writing worthless blog posts.

Phantom Menaces - Added 50 Home Run Derby points to PM from the performance of Chase Utley (5).

SUB-300 Syndrome and How It Has Affected the First Half

There have been 41 times this season where a team’s opponent has scored under 299 points. The data suggests some of the reasons why certain teams are winning frequently, while others have not. Here is the data followed by some thoughts.

When Opponent Scores Under 299 Points

BSI: 2 times (1-1) – W vs. KS, L vs. Zou
KS: 5X (3-2) – W vs. BSI and KC twice, L vs. PM and BGD
CRN: 5X (4-1) – W vs. Zou, KS, BSI, BGD – L vs. PM
KC: 2X (0-2) – L vs. HH and KS
HH: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, RC, CRN, KS, BGD, RC, SPR
SPR: 2X (2-0) – W vs. RC, KS
PM: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, CRN, KS, CRN, SPR, BGD, KS
BGD: 3X (3-0) – W vs. HH, KS, RC
RC: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BGD, CRN and L vs. HH
ZOU: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BSI, KS and L vs. CRN

When Scoring Under 299 Points

BSI: 3X – L vs. Zou, Smurfs, CRN
HH: 3X – W vs. KC and RC with L vs. BGD
KS: 11X – Check season schedule
CRN: 5X – W vs. Zou with L vs. PM twice, HH, RC
KC: 4X – L vs. PM, HH, KS twice
SPR: 2X – L vs. PM and HH
PM: 2X – W vs. CRN and KS (Note: CRN and KS two lowest scoring teams)
BGD: 5X – W vs. KS and L vs. RC, CRN, HH, PM
RC: 4X – L vs. SPR, HH twice, BGD
ZOU: 2X – W vs. BSI and L vs. CRN

Let’s focus on the Halos for a moment. The Halos are 7-0 against teams that scored under 299 points against him, but there is another stat that is telling as well. The median average of points scored per game for the league is 336. Three times this season the Halos' opponent has scored between 300 and 325 points, resulting in a 2-1 record for the Halos. This means in two-thirds of the Halos matchups this season, his opponent has scored at least 10 points below league average. Ten times! The Halos have had their opponent score over 350 points four times this season and is 2-2 in those matchups.

Now, Andrew would probably argue that he has scored the most points in the league (by far) so who cares? This is an excellent point, but my purpose is not to say Andrew’s team sucks (because it doesn't). No, the point is luck is a big factor in fantasy. For instance, if Andrew’s opponents were averaging 358 points a game (like what Inoculators opponents are averaging) he would be 9-6. If Inoculators opponents were averaging 288 points (like what Halos opponents are averaging) Ben would be 14-1.

Of course, no one is posting “average points against” every week so this is not to say the Inoculators would be actually be 14-1 or the Halos would be 9-6. There are obviously other factors to consider. The point, again, is the impact of luck in fantasy.

A deeper analysis of the Inoculators is forthcoming (I know you could care less, but I just freaking lost a matchup by .5 points so deal with it!), but I thought I’d post this first.