EEEEEEE-Mail (and Andrew too)

If you ever have a question and want to e-mail me during the day, your best option is to use this address: BNielsen@bssd.net. Because of the school districts crazy filters (cannot even get onto google sometimes) this will be the best way to get a hold of me during the day.

With that, onto the worst team in the league last year – Andrew Wessley.

***

Keeper Review – Team Wessley (still waiting on a name that I like)

Chosen Keepers
C.C. Sabathia
Justin Verlander
Russell Martin

Draft Picks Lost
11th, 27th and 28th Round picks
(Note: Andrew also has an additional 10th round pick via a trade with Erik)

Last Year Fantasy Point Total (position rank)
Sabathia – 704 (2)
Verlander – 489 (15)
Martin – 411 (3)

Players Not Kept of Note
Francisco Liriano
Pedro Martinez
Joe Mauer
Dustin Pedroia
Carlos Guillen
Kevin Youkilis
Brandon Phillips
Nick Markakis
Todd Helton

Thoughts:
Keeping the second best fantasy pitcher from last season for a mere 28th round pick was not too hard of a decision for Andrew (nor would it be for anyone else besides Joel). Justin Verlander should see increased value given his power pitching nature and the tremendous run support he should be receiving. Russell Martin was kept at good value given how shallow the catchers pool is this season.

To expect C.C. to have the kind of year this year as he did last year would be insane. Some would suggest that since he is in a contract year that he will perform just as well. The same could be said of Carlos Zambrano last year and he was very inconsistent until he signed a deal midway through the year. Andrew can attest to his inconsistency. Given the strength of the American League Central from an offensive point of view (with the possible exception of the Royals), it should not be a given that Sabathia has a tremendous year. Sabathia set career marks in strikeouts, innings pitched, wins and ERA. It was also the first time since 2002 he had thrown over 200 innings in a season. There also must be concern with his heavy work load (241 innings) he endured last season and if he will remain healthy all season. On the up side, he is only 27 and is entering his prime.

Verlander was not subject to a sophomore slump last year, going 18-6 with a 3.66 ERA, 183 strikeouts and a no-hitter in slightly over 200 innings of work. As mentioned earlier, Verlander should expect great run support this season which may make him a 20-game winner this season. One point of concern is that he has thrown 400-plus regular and post season innings in his first two full seasons in the big leagues. How Verlander’s arm reacts to that stress is a question mark. Still, Andrew should expect an excellent season from Verlander and is a steal as an 11th round pick.

Russell Martin is among the five best offensive catchers in the game. At age 25, Martin can expect to improve even more this season, his third in the big leagues. Martin flirted with .300 and 20 homers last year and was only 13 RBI short of 100. His 21 stolen bases is an added bonus. Martin did strikeout more often last season, but he does have a president for walking nearly as many times as he strikes out. Andrew should expect Martin to be in the top three of catchers by the end of the season.

Thou Shalt Not Keep (and Erik too)

For the record, here is the list of players who cannot be kept next season: Tim Lincecum, Ryan Braun, C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Aaron Harang, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Jonathan Papelbon, Ted Lily, Vladimir Guerrero, Prince Fielder and Hanley Ramirez. Also, individuals who are drafted in the first two rounds this season and individuals who are not drafted at all are not eligible to be kept. Bet you $10 Andrew wishes he had the first pick in the draft next season and not this season. Sucks to be you Andrew, sucks to be you.

Now on to Erik’s keeper review.

***

Keeper Review – The Zou

Chosen Keepers
Tim Lincecum
Ryan Braun
Cole Hamels

Draft Picks Lost
21st, 27th and 28th round picks

Last Year Fantasy Point Total (position rank)
Lincecum – 317 (33)
Braun – 334 (10)
Hamels – 547 (12)

Players Not Kept of Note
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Grady Sizemore
Hunter Pence
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Yovani Gallardo
Phil Hughes
Ben Sheets
Fausto Carmona
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz
James Shields

Thoughts:
As it relates to draft picks lost, Erik did not take much risk losing picks in twenty’s. How these players fair will be interesting. Only Hamels is eligible to be kept next season so it will also be interesting to see what Erik does with them at the trade deadline.

Lincecum’s violent throwing motion makes him an obvious candidate for arm problems in the future. How fast that future arrives is uncertain. If he does remain healthy, he can count on a lot of strikeouts. His 150 strikeouts in 146 1/3 innings were quite impressive for a rookie. Lincecum’s 4.00 ERA is inflated due to a two start stretch where he gave up 13 runs in less than eight innings of work. He ended following that up with back-to-back seven inning shutouts, totally 20 strikeouts. The Giants are not projected to be a very good team this season so Erik cannot count on too many victories, but that should not keep the strikeouts from coming. (It should be noted Lincecum was drafted nine picks after Luke Hochevar.)

Ryan Braun had a historical rookie campaign, hitting 34 home runs, driving in 97 and batting .324 in only 451 at-bats. Hitting in front of Prince Fielder made his transition to the big leagues smooth and he should reap the same benefits of hitting in front of Fielder this season. There are concerns about Braun. Ryan struck out once every four at-bats and walked only 29 times. Braun hit more home runs (34) than he did doubles (26). The lack of double is a little concerning. Of the 26 players who hit at least thirty home runs, only Ken Griffey Jr., Lance Berkman and Jim Thome had fewer doubles. This lack of base running ability could become costly if Braun sees a dip in his home run power.

Only three players in the history of baseball had at least 30 home runs, 95 RBI, a .320 batting average and 1.000 OPS in there first season in the big leagues: Albert Pujols (2001), Ted Williams (1939) and Ryan Braun (2007). Both Williams and Pujols had significantly more at-bats than Braun. Williams saw a reduction in home run power his next season. Pujols did not. Who Braun decides to be is yet to be seen.

Cole Hamels, who is entering his third big league season, has seen great success striking out batters. He has, however, had issues with injuries. A healthy Hamels combined with a healthy Lincecum and Braun should be very formidable.

I'm a strong cryer... (and Casey too)

Sorry about not having a blog yesterday. I’ve been helping Meredith’s cousin move into their huge new house. Today I learned that I have absolutely no upper or lower body strength, but I do have strength where it counts… my tear ducts.

As for these trade shenanigans I’m going to go ahead and just veto the thing. I do want to make a few quick points though.

Jason would not have had four keepers, he would have had three (AROD, Bedard and Harang). He then would have traded a player and a draft pick for two players. Reyes and Wright would have still been considered Tony’s keeper selections. That really doesn’t matter though, what matters is how many times a specific player has been kept in a row. Once the keepers have been selected, it does not matter who gets traded up to the draft because they are all keepers anyway. If you have question or are confused by this, e-mail me.

Tony and Jason – if you two want to make a trade involving Reyes and AROD you don’t have to wait until the draft to do it. If you come up with a deal that is fair and works send it to me. Maybe a Santana and Pujols for AROD and a 10th rounder would be enticing? I don’t, just thought I’d get the ball rolling.

As for today’s evaluations, we have Mr. Casey at the bat. Enjoy.

P.S. Tomorrow I plan to post the players who cannot be kept after this season. I’ll expand to that list after the draft, but I want to give you a heads up.

P.S.S For clarification, Tony's keepers are Pujols, Reyes and Santana while Jason's keepers are Harang, Bedard and AROD. Just for clarification...

***

Keeper Review – KC

Chosen Keepers
Ted Lily
Vladimir Guerrero
Travis Hafner

Draft Picks Lost
2nd, 3rd and 28th round picks

Last Year Fantasy Point Total (position rank)
Lilly – 472 (16)
Guerrero – 619 (2)
Hafner – 413 (3)

Players Not Kept of Note
Orlando Cabrera
Ken Griffey Jr.
Derek Jeter
Gil Meche
Roy Oswalt
Mark Buehrle
Rich Harden

Thoughts:
KC made a bold move when sacrificed his second and third round picks for an aging Vladimir Guerrero and an underperforming Travis Hafner. To counter his bold move, he gave up his last pick for Ted Lilly, who will likely be better than the player he would draft there anyway.

Keeping Guerrero is an interesting move given his age and round he may have been drafted in (I’d presume later than the second round). Guerrero, who will be 32 this season, had his lowest home run total since 2003 hitting only 27 bombs. However, he did see a spike in his doubles numbers, tying his career mark with 45. This would suggest that he hasn’t lost his power all together. It is a concern though and makes one wonder if Casey could have easily gotten Vladimir in a lower round. A fifth round pick maybe?

I understand the Hafner decision. Despite his down year, Hafner carries a high value because there are not a lot of DH eligible players who produce at a high level. With Hafner being off the board, we are left with David Ortiz and Gary Sheffield as the only reliable DH’s available. There may be an early run on DH’s in the draft. Casey, though, is set at that position.

Ted Lilly will have decent value in the 28th round. If he wasn’t kept, he probably would have gone around the 18th to 21st round. Lilly set career highs in strikeouts and innings pitched while tying his career high in wins last season. He too will be 32 years old this season. The condition his arm is in will be interesting.

Well, at least it isn't a steroid controversy...

YES! I pissed people off! I foresee my ending to life coming violently …

Anyway, it seems like there is a bit of controversy around the Smurfs/Tones (or whatever his name is now) deal, so I’d like to make a few quick explanations and then a proposal.

First, when doing the keepers, I checked with every person personally about who they were keeping before sending the available players to Adam and Kyle. Every person that is, except for Tony who had his preliminary keepers posted since September. I never checked with him to make sure those were his keepers.

Tuesday I received an IM from Jason outlining the trade and noticed David Wright was involved. I was confused because I thought Tony had not kept Wright. After talking to Tony, I realized that I should have talked to him before registering his keepers. Because I’m a pansy, I allowed him to make the switch in keepers because I knew Kyle or Adam would not have kept him if given the opportunity, the trade was fair(ish) and because I felt Wright and Pujols were plausible first round picks for this draft. So that’s that.

As for keepers, it does not matter how many “keepers” one has on their roster if they have traded for them. If one wanted to, they could trade all three of their keepers to me for my first three picks in the draft. The only stipulation is that a draft pick must be involved if one team will receive more players than the other and that one can only select three keepers from his current roster prior to the deadline (a deadline that I did a terrible job of following). The only problem with this trade was that Wright was not “officially” kept when I announce the keepers Tuesday.

With that said, I am thinking about overturning the trade provided I receive a reasonable explanation from three naysayers. If I do we’ll go from there. If not, the trade will stand. It’s up to you. Post your thoughts on the League Page message board.

Now… on with the evaluations!

***

Keeper Review – Krunk Smurfs (Ugh, what a stupid name...)

Chosen Keepers
Erik Bedard
Aaron Harang
Jose Reyes (via trade with Tones)
David Wright (via trade with Tones)

Draft Picks Lost
1st, 19th and 28th round (Lost 15th round pick in trade with Tones)

Last Year Fantasy Point Total (position rank)
Bedard – 681 (3)
Harang – 632 (6)
Reyes – 546 (1)
Wright – 892 (2)

Players Not Kept of Note
Brandon Webb
Francisco Rodriguez
Jose Valverde
Jimmy Rollins
B.J. Upton
Mark Teixeira
Gary Sheffield
Carlos Pena

Thoughts:
The Krunk Smurfs (God I hope he changes that name soon…) based his strategy on Bedard and Harang duplicating their success (while costing him very low draft picks) and that David Wright and Jose Reyes combined are more valuable than AROD and any other shortstop (“A wise premise in my view.” Tim McCarver).

Keeping Bedard and Harang are risks, but safe risks given the draft positions surrendered. Bedard has never gone through a full season without missing a start. He has also never posted an ERA under 4.32 in his four full seasons in the majors. Additionally, his 5.96 career ERA at Safeco Field is third only to Angel Stadium (9.22) and Fenway Park (8.10). Bedard is 6-7 with a 6.66 ERA in his career versus the Angles, Rangers and Athletics (that can’t be a good sign). Bedard will be 29 years old this season.

Harang was the benefactor of good luck last season, going 16-6 for the lowly Cincinnati Reds. However, his 218 strikeouts (two more than his total from 2006) were not luck. Harang’s 4.19 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio was the best in the National League last year. Harang will be 30 years old this year and pitching for a team that did not appear to improve itself much this season. The health of Ken Griffey Jr. and the future of Adam Dunn may negatively affect what is an already terrible team. Harang will have to maintain his excellent strikeout to walk ratio if he is to have another big year for Jason.

I’m not really high on David Wright. I think he will lose RBI’s to a reinvigorated Carlos Delgado and Moises Alou. I also think his power will regress (Shea is just so huge) and he’ll fall back to the mid-20s. I’d also be surprise if he stole more than 34 bases if the lineup in front and behind him is healthy.

As for Reyes, the new point changes will make him a greater force given his ability to steal bases and score runs. His occasional home run power is also nice.

Damn you Jason…

Big Trade (And Tony too...)

Last night, the Smurfs and the Tones pulled off a preseason trade where the Tones sent David Wright and Jose Reyes to the Smurfs for Alex Rodriguez and a 15th round pick.

In order to trade for Alex Rodriguez, the Tones released keeper rights to Albert Pujols and kept David Wright. This means Albert Pujols is available to be drafted on March 23.

To get an idea what this does to Tony, here is his keeper review.

***

Keeper Review – Tones

Chosen Keepers
Alex Rodriguez
Johan Santana

Draft Picks Lost
1st and 28th round pick. (Gained 15th round pick via trade with Smurfs)

Last Year Fantasy Point Total (position rank)
Rodriguez – 709 (1)
Santana – 661 (4)

Players Not Kept of Note
Victor Martinez
Albert Pujols
Ichiro Suzuki
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester

Thoughts:

Hmm… keep Alex Rodriguez and Johan Santana and give up David Wright and Jose Reyes. Ok. Interesting. I’m personally okay with this trade for two reasons: I’m not high on David Wright as a top producing fantasy player and I am all for forcing Andrew into passing on Albert Pujols with the first pick. For those who don’t know, Pujols may have Tommy John surgery due to a bad tendon in his throwing elbow. He is going to try to play without the surgery, but that elbow could go at any time. It could also not go and Pujols could go off for 50 home runs and 150 RBI. Either way, I’m interested to see how far he falls. ($10 says Joel picks him. Idiot. Keep Granderson fool!)

As for the players actually kept, Santana is only the games best pitcher, in a pitchers park, in a pitchers league. Oh, and did I mention he plays for the best team in his league? Oh, sorry I forgot that. Uhg…

It is safe to say that Alex Rodriguez will have a big season, this is for certain. How big that season is will rely on Rodriguez’ adjustment to the pressure of New York fans who are bitter about him opting out of his contract. Rodriguez is nearing the end of his prime (he’ll be 32 this season) so it will be interesting to see if there is any noticeable drop off in his performance.

It should be noted that the trade for AROD was made possible by a midseason trade last year by one ANDREW WESSLEY. So kudos to ANDREW WESSLEY who lives at 1965 S MAPLE TREE LANE and SLEEPS on the FIRST ROOM DOWN THE HALL TO YOUR RIGHT. Andrew decided to trade Tony both Albert Pujols AND Jose Reyes for what ended up being nothing (by nothing I mean Todd Helton). God I hate you Andrew…

All donations to the Ben Nielsen’s Gone Insane fund can be made out to CASH and sent to 1526 NE Craigievar CT, Blue Springs, Missouri. 64014 is the zip. Really, feel free to do that.

Let's Get It On! (Oh, and Joel too)

The League is on.

The following is the list of keepers who will not be in the draft.

Tim Lincecum, Ryan Braun, Cole Hamels, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Russell Martin, Josh Beckett, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, Johan Santana, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Erik Bedard, Aaron Harang, Alex Rodriguez, Ted Lily, Vladimir Guerrero, Travis Hafner, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, Jake Peavy, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, Jimmy Rollins, Dan Haren, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Scott Kazmir and Jonathan Papelbon.

From now through next week I will provide analysis of each team’s keeper selections. This week I give you Joel Schilb.

***

Keeper Review – Joel Schilb (‘cause his new name sucks…)

Chosen Keepers
Josh Beckett
Matt Holliday
Garrett Atkins

Draft Picks Lost
4^th, 6^th and 16^th round picks

Last Year Fantasy Point Total (position rank)
Beckett – 643 (5)
Holliday – 558 (2)
Atkins – 442 (5)

Players Not Kept of Note
Brian McCann
Placido Polanco
Edgar Renteria
Curtis Granderson
Justin Morneau
Troy Tulowitzki
Roy Halladay
Huston Street

Thoughts:

I do not entirely agree with Joel’s decision making here. First, I do understand the Beckett decision given that it only cost him a sixteenth round pick. And while Holliday was the NL MVP runner-up and keeping him costs Joel a 6^th round pick, with the other players available, I do not understand why he did not go with someone else instead.

I believe Joel thought Atkins was undrafted. Unfortunately for Joel, Atkins was drafted in the fourth round. I know this because I am the one who drafted him. Joel should have chosen either Troy Tulowitzki (undrafted), Curtis Granderson (21^st round), or even Edgar Renteria (20^th round). However, Joel in all his wisdom chose Atkins. If he wins the league based off of this decision, I’m going to puke.

It is possible Joel made his decisions foreseeing a terrible draft. Thus wanted to make sure he had someone (Holliday) who would actually do something. Alas, I think this reasoning is terrible. All Joel really needed to do was not draft a St. Louis Cardinal, then he would have been fine.

Holliday and Atkins should provide Joel with solid power numbers (and a lot of strikeouts), while Beckett will win many games for the Red Sox if the first half of the season, before falling off in the second half.

Good luck Joel. Your decisions make me sick. (And so does your face...)

Start of Season E-Mail

Hey guys.

[Insert cheesy “It’s time for Fantasy Baseball” opener here]

I have some news and notes to go through here to get us into the draft. It is a little long so I apologize, but please read the whole thing.

So, let’s get this thing started:

Anticipated draft date: Sunday, March 23 at 6:30 p.m.
This is a flexible date. However, it sounds as if this is the best time for all members of the league to be involved in the draft. If you have any suggestions or comments, please let me know immediately.

Two New Teams
Kyle Morris and Adam Keller have been invited to join our league. This increases the amount of teams to ten. By doing so, 56 additional players will be taken in the draft which hopefully will add to the competitiveness of the league.

Point Changes
There is an understanding on my part that the scoring system is not perfect. There are certain players who are overvalued and some that are undervalued. So with this in mind, I am mulling a few changes.

Here are the proposed hitting changes I am considering. The number in the parenthesis is the CURRENT value of that statistic.

Runs = 2 (1)
RBI = 2 (1)
Note: players who score or drive in runs should be rewarded. This also, in theory, increases the value of home runs by two points.

Stolen Bases = 3 (1)
Caught Stealing = -1 (- 1)
Note: Speed means nothing in this league. It is about to mean something.

Walks = 2 (2)
Intentional Walks = N/A (2)
Hit By Pitch = 2 (2)
Strikeouts = -1 (-2)
Note: It is easier to strike out than it is to walk. As it stands now, a player could go 3-5 and still lose a point. That seems a little excessive.
Also, additional points should not be added for being walked on purpose. Intentional walks will still be registered as a regular walk, only an extra two points will not be given.

Here are the proposed pitching changes I am considering. The number in the parenthesis is the CURRENT value of that statistic.

Hit By Pitch = -1 (-3)
Note: subtracting three points for hitting a batter seemed excessive to me.

Walks = -1.5 (-3)
Strikeouts = 3 (3)
Note: it is easier to walk someone than it is to strike someone out. I am confident I could walk anyone in the major leagues. I am also confident a two-year-old could walk anyone in the major leagues. Strikeouts are a different deal. Matt Cain was a guy I was thinking of when I made this change. Cain is too good to not have much value in this league.

Earned Runs = -3 (-2)
Note: giving up a run needs to sting more in this league. Subtracting three seems to be the most reasonable.

All of these changes WILL happen unless someone disagrees. If someone does disagree with a point change, please e-mail me with your argument and we will have a league vote. I intend on making these changes Feb. 22 so please send your suggestions by Feb. 18 so we can make a decision before Feb. 22.

New Draft Rules
The draft this year will see at least 250 selections and as many as 280 selections if there are no keepers selected. To help keep the draft moving along, the following rules will be implemented:

1) Each player has a maximum of 60 seconds to make their pick. If a pick is not made, the next best available player on the ESPN list will be selected for you.

Special circumstances (Computer randomly shuts off, internet disconnects, an individual is drafting for more than one team, etc.) will be dealt with on a fair and equal basis as it relates to each individual person and event.

2) Those that choose a player who has already been selected will lose their draft pick in that round. (This rule will probably not be enforced, but if things get out of control, don't complain when you lose a draft pick.)

3) The Draft will start without you if you’re late. No exceptions. If you know you’re going to be late, take the necessary measures to be sure you get the players you want (i.e. Send someone your list of players to be selected, alter your schedule or dump your girlfriend).

Keepers
Everyone is allowed to select three (3) players to keep from their current roster for the new season. Those selections need to be e-mailed to me by Feb. 21.

I am, on Feb. 22, going to add Adam and Kyle to the league and make the point changes. I have concerns that I may need to reset the rosters in order to make the proposed point changes. I plan on doing that as soon as ESPN allows me to. So, for safety sake, send your keepers now to be sure they remain on your roster.

Proposed Keeper Rule Changes
Here are a few rules for keepers I am proposing (all changes would be put in place after the draft):

1) No one can keep their first or second round selection or an undrafted player. A first or second round player or an undrafted player may be kept this season only.

2) A player can be kept no more than three times (no matter the owner). If a player is kept three times in a row, said player is returned to the draft pool the following season.

If a player is kept two seasons by owner A and then is traded to owner B and kept, the player would still end up back in the draft pool the following season.

3) A player who is kept will cost the owner the pick prior to the round the player was selected. For instance, if a player was drafted in the 10th round and kept, he would cost a ninth round pick the following season. If said player is kept again, he would cost the owner his eighth round pick. If a player is kept a third (and final) time, it would cost the owner his seventh round pick.

4) An owner cannot keep two or more players who were drafted in the same round.

Each proposal requires 7 “No” votes in order to be defeated. None of these changes would affect keepers this season except for proposal number two. The votes will take place on the league page the day after the draft and will be completed after all the necessary votes are in.

Final Thoughts
I am sending an individual e-mail to each of you to discuss the blog. I’ll let those e-mails explain my thoughts.

If any of you have any ideas that were not discussed above, please contact me.

Have a good day and bad luck to all of you.

Ben