The League

Reasons for Veto

2009-07-31T16:09:00.002-05:00

After much thought and consideration, I have decided to veto the trade between Kimball and Weseloh for the following players:

Shane Victorino and Cliff Lee to Weseloh
Brad Hawp, Aaron Harang and Jason Hammel to Kimball

The reasons are as follows.

1. It was made clear a few weeks ago that because of mitigating circumstances Kimball would no longer be active in the league for an indefinite period of time. This statement was made aware to me after the approval of similar seemingly-lopsided trades. Had I been aware of Kimball’s intent, I doubt those trades would have been approved either. This is not to say I’m upset, but to allow context to my vetoing of this trade.

2. Kimball is not receiving adequate compensation for this trade. Cliff Lee, last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner who has just been traded to an inferior league, has been one of the top fantasy pitchers in baseball.

Cliff Lee(2009): 7-9, 152 IP, 3.14 ERA, 107 K, 1.303 WHIP
Cliff Lee (since April 16): 7-7, 142 IP, 2.66 ERA, 97 K, 1.239 WHIP

Cliff Lee (08-09): 29-12, 2.78 ERA, 375.1 IP, 277 K, 160 ERA+
Roy Halladay (08-09): 31-15, 2.74 ERA, 394 IP, 335 K, 156 ERA+

*This is not to argue Cliff Lee is better, as good or worse than Roy Halladay, but to establish Lee’s value in comparison to Halladay, one of the top pitchers in the game. Clearly, Lee has been very impressive in comparison to Halladay.

Notes
- Lee has outscored Zack Greinke, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Yavonni Gallardo and Felix Hernandez in the last month.
- Will be eligible to be kept for two more seasons at a cost of a 24th and 23rd round pick.
- Is now pitching for the defending World Series Champions in a pitcher’s league. (Think CC Sababthia last season.)
- Since April 16, all but one Cliff Lee start has been a quality start.

Aaron Harang: 5-12, 4.50 ERA, 134 IP, 115 K, 1.455 WHIP
Jason Hammel: Fantasy points in his last five starts – (-19.5), 5, 12.5, (-11), (-3.5). Over his last six starts he is 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA and .352 opponent’s batting average. But, yeah, I’d take him over Cliff Lee.

Notes
- Harang and Hammel have combined for 19 quality starts this season. Lee has 18 by himself, which is as many as Zack Greinke, Dan Haren and Josh Johnson and more than Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley and Roy Halladay.
- Harang will be a 10th round keeper if kept. Hammel was not drafted and is thus a 15th round keeper.

In other words, I do not believe that an invested player would trade Cliff Lee straight up (if at all) for Aaron Harang and Jason Hammel.

3. In my mind, the trade is broken up into two parts: Lee for Harang and Hammel and Shane Victorino for Brad Hawp. When looked at from this view, I believe it give greater context to the trade. I would be surprised to see anybody construct a Victorino for Hawp trade in this league.

Consider that Victorino is out scoring ALL fantasy centerfielders and is a key part in the National League’s best lineup.

Shane Victorino
- Has outscored all fantasy centerfielder-eligible players on the season and in the last month.
- Has two more keeper eligible seasons at round 15 and 14.
- Has, on the season, outscored Brad Hawp by over 100 fantasy points.

Brad Hawp(Opening Day to May 15): .363/.437/.667, 6 HR, 11 2B, 30 RBI, 19 K, 14 BB
Brad Hawp (May 16 to present): .296/.381/.517, 10 HR, 17 2B, 34 RBI, 56 K, 31 BB

Shane Victorino (OD to May 15): .253/.296/.418, 6 2B, 3 3B, 12 K, 9 BB, 3 SB
Shane Victorino (May 16 to pres):.353/.431/.504, 21 2B, 3 3B, 33 K, 33 BB, 14 SB

I think this shows that Hawp had a great first month of the season and is falling back to normal and that Victorino had a bad first month and has had extended success for the last three months. I believe the overall fantasy points reflect this when one considers how poorly Victorino played in comparison to Hawp for the first month of the season. Since then, not only has Victorino caught up to him, he has surpassed him (along with every other centerfield-eligible player).

Hawp Notes
- Is the 8th ranked right field-eligible player on the season.
- Is the 32nd ranked right field-eligible player in the last month. (Behind players such as Jason Kubel, Jeff Francoeur, Jack Cust and Franklin Gutierrez.)

In conclusion, under normal circumstances, I would accept this trade. I feel that people should suffer the wrath of their stupid decisions. But this is not a normal situation. I don’t clearly understand Kimball’s intentions for next season, and feel that if he were for sure going to be in this league next season, he would never EVER trade Cliff Lee unless it was for Jesus or something. The motivation behind the trade in addition to its lopsidedness has led to my disapproval of it.

If either Kimball or Weseloh can provide a sound argument for the trades passage or a more suitable deal, I will gladly listen. But as of now, I don’t feel this trade is in the best interest of the league in the future. Because, as we all know, the best interest of this league is vital to national security.

There Goes Adam Drinking The Cool-Aide Again or Why Albert Pujols Sucks

2009-07-01T03:47:00.003-05:00

Let the rant begin...

I don’t want to get in a debate over who the best baseball player in history was (let alone who the second greatest player was), but I do feel a need to make some sort of retort to one Mr. Keller who recently tried to argue Albert Pujols was the second greatest baseball player ever to live. Here are his words:

“Best Baseball Players of All-Time: 1. Babe Ruth* 2. Albert Pujols 3...doesn't matter; everyone else is mortal. *-while it is true that Pujols is in fact a better hitter, Babe Ruth was a pretty darn good pitcher before he ever swung a bat for the Yankees.”

And…

“haha ok, so i was joking about Pujols being a better hitter than the Babe, but look at the numbers...nobody in the history of the game has been better the first nine years of their career, and Rogers Hornsby is the only right handed batter ever to have a better nine year span than Albert (1921-29 with the Cardinals, Giants, Braves and Cubs in case you were wondering)...Hank Aaron has the numbers most similar to Albert year in and year out, but Pujols' career Batting Average is 30 points higher, Slugging % is 75 points higher and On-Base % is 50 points higher...Also, since his Major League debut, Albert leads the NL in AVG, HR and RBI - the career triple crown - and in each category the only guy in 2nd who is even close is Todd Helton, who's batting average is 8 points behind Pujols from 2001-2008. Nobody is more consistent, nobody has started better, and one more thing; at 29 Pujols is just now entering into his prime.”

Before I continue I want to make a few things very clear. First, stats are like Bible verses, they can mean different things to different people. I can lay out a statistical argument that Albert Pujols is not the best player in the National League this year. I can also lay out an argument suggesting he is the greatest baseball player of all-time. So I do not want to get into some kind of statistical debate and argue in circles all day. All I want to accomplish is letting Adam know that Albert Pujols, at the very least, has some very steep competition for the number two (or one) spot as the greatest player ever.

Second, Albert Pujols is a great player.

Third, Babe Ruth is a great player.

With this said, Albert Pujols sucks.

Case Number One: Ted Williams

Ted Williams is considered by some to be the greatest hitter to ever live. He made his major league debut at the age of twenty and played 18 seasons with the Boston Red Sox. It must always be remembered that Williams lost three seasons (from age 24 to 27) because he was serving in the Air Force during World War II. Here are the period comparisons to Albert Pujols.

From Age 21 to 24
Williams: .366/.497/.654, 96 HR, 110 2B, 22 3B, 388 BB, 132 K
Pujols: .334/.412/.613, 114 HR, 138 2B, 7 3B, 220 BB, 227 K

From Age 27 to 29 (Noting that Albert’s numbers are incomplete, but also noting that Williams age 27 year was his first season after the War since he was 23.)
Williams: .351/.498/.639, 95 HR, 121 2B, 20 3B, 444 BB, 132 K
Pujols: .339/.446/.631, 97 HR, 101 2B, 1 3B, 262 BB, 143 K

Ted Williams’ On-Base Percentage from 1939 (rookie year) to 1951 (age 31)
.436
.442
.553 (22 years old, 143 games in 156 game season, 2nd in MVP voting, 1.287 OPS, 235 OPS+)
.499 (217 OPS+)
.497 (first year back from WWII, 215 OPS+)
.499 (205 OPS+)
.497
.490
.452
.464

In 1957, Williams had an .526 OBP and a 233 OPS+ at the age of 38. Between 1940 and 1958 Williams never had an OBP bellow .442 and had a slugging percentage bellow .600 three times (.594, ’40; .556, ’51; .584, ’58).

Final Thoughts:
Ted Williams had only one season where he played at least 100 games and did not have an OPS of at least 1.000. Albert has had two seasons where he hit under 1.000. Williams is also the last player to ever hit .400 in a season. And while I expect Pujols to surpass him (assuming health), Williams did hit 521 home runs in his career. After returning from WWII Williams never struck out more than 50 times in a season. In 1941 Williams walked 147 times and struck out 27 times (he also slugged .735 that season, making he the youngest player to ever have a SLG over .700. Only Ruth, Bonds*, Gehrig, Hornsby, McGwire*, Bagwell, Foxx and Sosa* have ever surpassed .735).

Case Number Two: Walter Johnson

I won’t go into too much detail, but here are some of the arguments for him being the best pitcher of all-time.

417 Wins (second all-time)
110 shutouts (MLB record)
Career 2.17 ERA (11th all-time)
3509 strike outs (9th all-time)
1.06 WHIP (8th all-time)
147 ERA+ (4th all-time).

Case Number Three: Ty Cobb

I went too long with the Ted Williams deal so I’m only going to list the records Ty Cobb is in the top 10 all-time.

Career Batting average: 1st (.366)
Single-Season BA: 8th (.420)
Career OBP: 9th (.433)
Career Games Played: 5th (3035)
Career Runs Scored: 2nd (2246)
Career Hits: 2nd (4189)
Single-Season Hits: 8th (248)
Career Doubles: 4th (724)
Career Triples: 2nd (295)
Career RBI: 7th (1937)
Career Stolen Bases: 4th (892)
Career Runs Created: 5th (2522)

Note: Ty Cobb is 11th all-time in career extra base hits. George Brett is 13th.

Ty Cobb retired in 1928 and was among the first class to be voted into the hall of fame with Walter Johnson, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson and Babe Ruth and received more votes than all of them. Cobb was voted as the best major league player ever by baseball writers in 1950.

There are more, but I’m getting tired and lazy. In 1998, The Sporting News listed their version of the Top 100 MLB Players. The top 10 were Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, Christy Mathewson, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby and Stan Musial. (Barry Bonds ranked 34th, Ken Griffey Jr. was 93rd... this was in 1998 mind you.)

Anyway, the point is to say that while Pujols is very good, he’s still got a long way to go if he wants to be in the discussion for best baseball player ever. That’s all I’m trying to say. I’m going to go eat my dumplings now.

Rivalries and the Case of the Monday's

2009-06-16T00:08:00.005-05:00

Over the course of time, man has used rivalries to keep things spruced up a bit. It is a time honored tradition of nonsensically hating another person for inconsequential reasons. (Note: I want to let you all know I wrote all of those words correctly on the first try. No joke. Yeah, I can’t believe it either.)

It is these truths that are self-evident to some individuals who are observant of details to notice said self-evident truths:

- God hates St. Louis.
- Woody-Gott hates Jesus.
- Cain hated Abel (RIP Abe).
- Main Street hates Wall Street.
- Stewie hates Lois.
- Fox News hates facts.
- Albert Pujols hates heterosexuals. (It is the only reason why he would like to take balls so much. I mean he takes them high, he takes them low, he takes them in the dirt, outside and inside; what more evidence do you need? None of the Royals players do this, therefore they are not gay.)
- The Chiefs hate the Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, winning, touchdowns, tackling, the draft, losing money and fans.
- Jason Whitlock hates white people at the Power and Light District along with salads.
- And, of course, everyone hates Jason Wiley.

It is with this in mind that I tell you all to never make a deal on a Monday.*

Two weeks ago today (I’m writing this on a Monday, but you’re reading this on a day that is likely not Monday) I made a pact - more of a challenge really - with Kyle Morris as to the outcome of our season series.

The deal was simple. The winner of the season series between our two fantasy teams would be the beneficiary of a hot dog and a beer at a Royals game courtesy of the loser, with the tie-breaker being total points.

A name for said challenge has not yet been developed. Kyle named it something, but I remember not liking it much and quickly forgot it. Beer Dog Cup maybe? I can’t remember what it was he called it.

* It should be noted that upon making this pact Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin landed themselves on the DL; Evan Longoria strained his groin; Tom Glavine was released from the Braves; Andrew McCutchen, who played in three games (all of which were his first games in the Majors), outscored every player on my fantasy team (he had 24 points); I scored the fewest points in a week I have ever scored in fantasy baseball (156 to be exact). The very next week, in a matchup that I did not have a bet on, I scored 414 points.

Anyway, I feel there needs to be more publicity for rivalries that I know exists in this league. Here are some suggestions.

RIVALRY ONE: Andrew Wessley vs. Erik Johnson
SUGGESTED NAME: Really Annoying People Cup
REASON: Andrew and Erik, as of now anyway, are the only two owners to have won a The League title. So, this is really a Yankees/Red Sox kind of rivalry. And we all know what we think of when we think of THAT rivalry: Douche bags.

RIVALRY TWO: Joel Schilb vs. Adam Keller
SUGGESTED NAME: The Overrated Cup
REASON: Joel and Adam came into The League with much hype, boasting of their “stacked” rosters and “great pitching”. A good reference point for this Cubs/Cardinals rivalry: Two teams that think they are good, but really are never really that good. This isn’t to say they don’t get lucky every once in a while. I mean, Joel actually made the playoffs last season. I wonder who he sold his soul to in order to get that result. Or maybe he just offered his body up to Albert Pujols as a sacrifice. Don’t get any ideas Tony.

RIVALRY THREE: Ben Nielsen vs. Andrew Wessley
SUGGESTED NAME: Champions Cup
REASON: Andrew and I have combined for the last four fantasy league titles (Two baseball, one football and one basketball). It only makes sense to have one more war to settle the score.

RIVALRY FOUR: Jeff Kimball vs. Kyle Morris
SUGGESTED NAME: Useless Information Bowl
REASON: Kyle and Kimball know a ridiculous amount of information. Some of it is very useful, most of it is not. Kimball, being the trusted and wise master of useless information, and Kyle, being the young protégée, each spent a significant amount of time back in the day researching and storing large quantities of facts for Scholar Bowl in their Blue Springs High School days. There is no way that previous sentence is grammatically correct, but I’m going to go with it anyway.

RIVALRY FIVE: Tony Allen vs. Jason Wiley
SUGGESTED NAME: The Rainbow Cup
REASON: We all know why. (Hint: Think “gay”. Do you get it now, Joel? No? Figures…)

I recommend all of you partake is some kind of rivalry, it adds to the suspense. If you’d like to start one with me, it would probably be smart to get me to agree to it on a Monday the week I’m facing you. That tends to work out well.

One Quarter Way Thoughts

2009-05-18T07:49:00.001-05:00

We are one-quarter of the way through the fantasy baseball season and here is what I know: I have no clue what is going on. I shall prove this with the following facts about each position as related to fantasy.

Catcher

Going into Monday, the following three individuals have scored the most fantasy points at the catching position:

Victor Martinez, Brandon Inge and Bengie Molina.

I’ll let that set in for a little while…

Now for players four through ten:

Russell Marin (HEY! He’s good!)
Kurt Suzuki (Oh no…)
Mike Napoli
John Baker
Yadier Molina (Oh God…)
Rod Barajas (WHAT?!?!?!?!)
Joe Mauer

In order for Mauer to get into the Top 10, he had to hit .429/.529/.804 with six homers, 16 runs batted in and twelve runs scored in 56 at-bats. That’s it. That’s all he had to do.

Yeah.

Much of the odd Top 10 is due to injury. Joe Mauer and Brian McCann have both spent time on the disabled list and Russell Martin had an April slump. Brandon Inge’s move back to third and Martinez first base eligibility has helped as well.

Fun WTF Fact: John Buck leads all catchers with three triples. That is precisely one more than… Ivan Rodriguez.

First Base

God bless first base, for it has been everything I expected it to be. Pujols is leading the way, Teixeira and Howard are comparatively sucking and Adrian Gonzalez leads all first basemen with 15 homers. Okay maybe I didn’t expect that part.

Fun WTF Fact: Lyle Overbay, in fewer at-bats, has more fantasy points than Derrek Lee. This is not a compliment.

Second Base

Someone once said second base was one of the weakest positions in fantasy (Kyle). I beg to differ:

Twenty hitters have scored 200 or more fantasy points so far this season. Five are second basemen. That means 25% of the best fantasy hitters are second basemen. Weak. And of those five, none of them posses the name “Dustin Pedroia” or “Brandon Phillips” or “Robinson Cano” or “Dan Uggla.” I throw Uggla in there simply because he was kept… and despite he is the TWENTIETH ranked second baseman. 20. We also avoid talking about Alexei Ramirez.

…

Okay, no we won’t. THRITY-EIGHTH!!! 38!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Joel, for the love of GOD, get a freakin’ different second baseman!!!

Fun WTF Fact: Of the top five second basemen – Ian Kinsler, Marco Scutaro, Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill and Chase Utley – three (3!) of them were undrafted. Weak.

Shortstop

This should be easy; Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes one, two, three, right?

No?

Jason Bartlett is number three? Marco Scuatro is number one? Asdrubal Cabrera is number four?

Shit…

Fun WTF Fact: Recently waived Yunel Escobar has more fantasy points than Jimmy Rollins… by 24 points… in 21 fewer at-bats. Hell, Edgar Renteria has more fantasy points than Rollins.

Third Base

You want to know who has more fantasy points than Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Chipper Jones and Chris Davis (who was fantastically drafted in the sixth round – by Joel of course)? Brandon Inge and Chone Figgins, duh.

Fun WTF Fact: Alex Gordon was drafted in the third round. THE THIRD ROUND! I still can’t get over that…

Left Field

Raul Ibanez is the fourth best fantasy hitter, fifth best fantasy player in baseball right now. He was drafted in the 17th round. Are people starting to figure why March’s draft was so stupid right now? Seriously! And it’s not like Ibanez has sucked recently either.

Ibanez Season Averages from 2004 to 2008: .291/.354/.477, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 34 2B, 85 runs

Did I mention he played in SEATLE and signed in hitter friendly PHILIDELPHIA this winter? But no, lets draft freaking Chris Davis in the sixth round, that makes sense.

Looking at left field reminded me of the Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard comparison I made at the beginning of the season. Let’s check in to see how that is doing.

Adam Dunn: .292, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 22 runs, 32 BB, 40 K, 182 Fantasy Points
Ryan Howard: .266/ 8 HR, 28 RBI, 25 runs, 16 BB, 44 K, 159 Fantasy Points

As a refresher, Ryan Howard went in the second round while Dunn went in round thirteen. Jason drafted both of them.

Fun WTF Fact: Jason is an idiot.

Centerfield

Coco Crisp is the number two fantasy centerfielder. Seriously, number two. More points than all other centerfielders except for one, Carlos Beltran. Coco Crisp. Number two. TOTALLY saw that coming.

Other things I TOTALLY saw coming:
Jayson Worth scoring the fourth most fantasy points of any centerfielder.
Adam Jones becoming the greatest centerfielder of all-time.
Johnny Damon is still alive.
Denard Span matters.
Nick Swisher’s epic start followed by an epic collapse. (They were actually talking about him being the MVP a few weeks ago, remember that? ESPN sucks.)
Coco Crisp, Jayson Worth, Adam Jones, Johnny Damon, Denard Span and Willy Taveras all have more fantasy points than Grady Sizemore. (Not that it will last, but seriously, who thought that would happen after six weeks?)

Fun WTF Fact: In Sizemore’s first four seasons in the majors, he had an OPS+ of 123, 132, 122 and 128. So far this season, his OPS+ is 81. His OPS is down almost 150 points. Yep, totally saw that coming.

Right Field

Injuries to Ichiro and Josh Hamilton shook up the top ten right fielders a bit, but it is, otherwise, normal.

Except, of course, for that whole Jayson Worth/Denard Span thing. Sheesh…

Fun WTF Fact: Mark Teahen has scored more fantasy points than Magglio Ordonez. I actually did see that coming… sort of.

Starting Pitchers

Zack Greinke. Yeah, I totally expected him to have an ERA of 0.60 and a 766 ERA+ six weeks in to the season. At this rate, Greinke will have 1248 fantasy points at the end of the REGULAR FANTAY SEASON. I knew this was going to happen.

I also had complete confidence Wandy Rodriguez would be a better pitcher than Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo.

It should be noted top five round picks Brandon Webb, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt, John Lackey, Jon Lester and James Shields are not in the top FIFTY in pitching. FIFTY!!! That means six of the ten pitchers taken if the first five rounds are not even in the top 50. Please remember this going into next season. Please.

Zack Duke, undrafted, has more fantasy points than Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Aaron Harang, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett and all the guys I mentioned above.

Johnny Cueto. Johnny. Freaking. Cueto. Ugh…

Edwin Jackson. Edwin. Freaking. Jackson. Ugh…

Randy Wolf. Randy. Freaking. Wolf.

Fun WTF Fact: Barry Zito has more fantasy points than Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Brandon Webb. Barry Zito.

Kimball Redux: The Rise of the Odd Man

2009-05-12T04:23:00.000-05:00

After five weeks, Kimball has scored the most fantasy points of any team this season. He completed this after I questioned both his keeper and draft strategies. Through the first five weeks, I look pretty stupid (not the first time, won’t be the last).

Here is a re-rundown of Kimball’s draft through the perspective of the first five weeks. Sure a lot of things can change in the next 19, but we haven’t gotten that far yet.

***

Round One
Justin Morneau

There were five first basemen taken in the first 18 picks of the draft. Here is where they rank in fantasy points as of Monday:

1 Albert Pujols – 237 (1)
2 Justin Morneau – 165 (3)
3 Miguel Cabrera – 146 (10)
4 Ryan Howard – 128 (15)
5 Mark Teixeira – 125 (17)

At least in terms of the first five weeks, one had a better shot at choosing a poor first baseman than a highly producing one. When one factors in that Pujols was almost a dead lock to go first overall, that means one had 1-in-4 chance of choosing a top 5 first basemen. Kimball ended up with the guy Kyle, Andrew and Jason thought they were getting.

Granted, Teixeira, Howard and Cabrera will not do this poorly all season (in comparison to other first basemen), but I’m sure Kyle would have rather had Morneau over Teixeira the past five weeks.

Round Two
Roy Halladay

Stud. I said when Kimball drafted him I felt he was one of only three guys worth taking in the first three to four rounds (Johan Santana and Brandon Webb were the other two) and Halladay did not disappoint. Hey, I do get some things right every once in a while…

Round Three
Alex Gordon

He’s on the DL, so he’s technically a bust. He’ll have to have a huge second half to justify going in the third round.

Round Four
Alex Rios

Rios is apparently the only Blue Jay who cannot hit. He’s the second early season bust in a row for Kimball. Out of his first four picks, two have been busts so far.

Round Five
Robinson Cano

Second base has been loaded so far this season. Three of the top four second basemen were not even drafted (Marco Scutaro, Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill). Chase Utley, Brain Roberts and Brandon Phillips aren’t even in the top five, that’s how loaded second base is.

So, saying Cano is rated 8th isn’t so bad. I’m sure Kimball is doing just fine with his .321 average, 21 runs, 6 homers and 18 runs batted in.

Round Six
Joey Votto

Third rated pure first basemen, fifth amongst all first base eligible players. Votto has 156 points in the Utility spot for Kimball, which I’m assuming is in the top half of The League right now… but I don’t know if that is true.

Round Seven
John Danks

He has had a couple of bad starts, but overall Danks has been one of the more reliable pitchers in the first five weeks. And given some of the other pitchers taken ahead of him (i.e. Scott Kazmir, Kevin Slowey, Daisuke Matsuzaka… the list goes on), Danks almost looks like a steal at round seven.

Round Eight
Yunel Escobar

A bit of a bust here so far, but it’s a position where really nobody has been any good. Rollins, Reyes and Ramirez have all slumped (by their standards) so far. But he was never going to have a shot at any of them as Rollins was kept and Reyes and Ramirez were off the board. Round eight was high, but it hasn’t killed him so far.

Ryan Theriot has been playing better than Escobar and has been starting for Kimball.

Round Nine
Joe Saunders

An unbelievable reach, but is the only guy who can beat Greinke. Right…

His shutout of the Royals skews his total season value a little bit, but he’s been a very consistent pitcher for Kimball, which is more than what most of the top 10 round pitchers can say.

Round Ten
J.J. Putz

30 fantasy points this season. Thirty.

Round Eleven
Ted Lilly

Lilly is 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA… yet he wasn’t drafted in the top 10 rounds. Pitching was so oddly and poorly drafted this season.

Round Twelve
Mike Gonzalez

Has been a solid closer so far.

Round Thirteen
Pat Burrell

A bust so far, but you can take a bit of a hit like this at round thirteen.

Round Fourteen
Jonathan Papelbon (Keeper, Second Time)

Has been shaky at moments, but has been a top closer so far.

Round Fifteen
Josh Johnson (Keeper, First Time)

A top five starting pitcher in the first five weeks. 15th round. Of course.

Round Sixteen
Shane Victorino (Keeper, First Time)

Victorino is tied for fifth amongst pure centerfielders and seventh amongst all centerfield eligible players. Shane is essentially a second-tier centerfielder right now, which isn’t bad for a sixteenth round keeper.

Round Seventeen
Scott Shields

Cut.

Round Eighteen
Bengie Molina

Before 2008: .310/.407/.717, 86 OPS+
2008: .322/.445/.731, 98 OPS+
2009: .289/.555/.844, 112 OPS+

Round Nineteen
David Murphy

Cut.

Round Twenty
Mike Pelfrey

Sucked.

Round Twenty-One
Ryan Theriot

Has played better than Escobar, and is a top five pure shortstop.

Round Twenty-Two
Ian Stewart

Cut.

Round Twenty-Three
Jorge Posada

He’s on the DL right now, but he had a great start to the season, hitting .312, 5 homers and 20 RBI.

Round Twenty-Four
Scott Baker (Keeper, First Time)

Sucked.

Round Twenty-Five
Cliff Lee (Keeper, First Time)

Lee has five straight quality starts and 23 strikeouts… and is 1-3 in those starts (1-5 on the season).

***

Now some of you will view this post as an elaborate way for me to jinx Kimball – and if I had written this a season or two ago, I would have agreed with you. But what I have found is that none of my voodoo magic ever works on my opposing fantasy players. So with this said, a large tip of my hat to Mr. Kimball, for somehow defying the laws of logic to create what has been the most productive fantasy team in The League for the first five weeks. Well done, good sir. You are a gentleman and a scholar.*

*This doesn’t mean I don’t hate you right now, though.

So Kimball Sucks (and other thoughts)

2009-05-11T07:36:00.002-05:00

Week In Review

Flying Monkeys over Inoculators

Thoughts:
Zack Greinke fantasy points = 82.5
Phil Hughes fantasy points = (-42)
Flying Monkey Margin of Victory = 60 points

Do the math…

Polk County Homer-Hulks over Bill James; Bitch

Thoughts:
First of all, I want it to be noted that I will use a different punctuation every time I write out Andrew’s team name in full; because any team name with a punctuation in it sucks.

Second, expect a redo of Kimball’s draft analysis in the near future.

Finally, explain this to me:
Kimball – 2187 fantasy points (most in The League); 3-2 overall
Jason – 1765 fantasy points (second fewest in The League); 3-2 overall

I hate Jason…

Speaking of the devil…

Krunk Smurfs over Saints

Thoughts:
And now I know why Jason is 3-2.

Texas A-Roids over Viva El Birdos

Thoughts:
I think the Birdos were a little premature with that press conference.

Cockies over Zou

Thoughts:
The good news is, as Erik wanted, he did not start 0-5 to start the season. The bad news is that 1-4 isn’t much better.

5 Things I Think I Think or Ideas I Stole From Peter King

1 I think some people take this blog waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too seriously. People need to understand this is a quasi- “Trash Talking” blog, written to provoke others in the league to trash talk as well (though that rarely happens). Readers should understand three things: Don’t take anything personally, I will always focus on the negatives of your team and its players and your team will never be as good as mine even if my record is 0-24. In other words, just have fun with it.

2 I think Joel would be far better off having Alberto Callaspo on his fantasy team than Alexei Ramirez (who Joel kept).

3 I think I smell a steroid scandal involving three things: The League, A-Roids and El Birdos. I think…

4 I think it is weird that going into Sunday Jorge De La Rosa has more fantasy points than CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Jon Lester, Joba Chamberlain, Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, Scott Kazmir, Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Fausto Carmona, Brandon Webb, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Brett Tomko. Okay, maybe not so much Jon Lester… but still.

5 I think 2009 Magglio Ordonez is the same as 2009 Mike Aviles.
Maggs: .286 SLG , 19 K/119 PA, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 0 2B, 10 runs
Mikey: .283 SLG, 21 K/105 PA, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 2B, 8 runs

2009 Albert Pujols would be the opposite.

Bird Flu

2009-05-05T18:33:00.002-05:00

[The following is a transcript from a 5/3 press conference with The League Commissioner, Ben Nielsen.]

NIELSEN: Thank you for coming. Before I begin, I want to make a quick statement on the subject I’m sure you are all here to talk about. After I address this, I will take no further questions on the matter.

We are very concerned about the sexual harassment charges brought upon Viva El Birdos owner Adam Keller. The League considers Ms. Ching-King a valuable asset to our league and will support her through this current matter.

Per The League rules, no action can be taken Mr. Keller during an investigation. I will decide how to handle Mr. Keller after the legal process has concluded.

As always, The League takes all of these matters seriously and will continue to support law enforcement in their investigation.

Questions?

REPORTER: Mr. Nielsen, Ben Shpigel, New York Times. Are there any The League rules on having heavily armed security forces at press conferences? Will that change after last week?

NIELSEN: To be frank, we never thought this would be an issue. Generally, there is common sense when dealing with reporters, but Adam, frankly, is not known for common sense. I do understand Adam to be very concerned about the recent Swine Flu pandemic, but I don’t think this was the right way to approach the problem.

To answer your second question, yes, there have been discussions about press conference decorum.

REPORTER: Dave van Dyck, Chicago Tribune. What are your personal feelings on Adam’s moves in the first month?

NIELSEN: Well, there’s really nowhere to go but up when your Opening Day first basemen is Chris Duncan, is there?

I ultimately believe, in a 24 week season, that he’s going to have to rely too much on Dan Uggla, Aubrey Huff and his awful out field to produce and keep him in matchups. By the end of the season, he’s going to learn what owners before him learned about Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren – not being consistent over a full season – and will find why Kyle Lohse was available in round 20.

Van Dyck: And the Price/Fielder for Rollins trade?

NIELSEN: Again, it is not hard to upgrade from Chris Duncan, but trading for a first baseman seems a little bit foolish this season if you are not trading for Albert Pujols. First base is deep this season, Adam would have been better off picking up James Loney from waivers. Wait… he did.

To my knowledge Loney is the tenth ranked first baseman and has scored more fantasy points than Fielder. Heck, Chris Duncan has scored more fantasy points than Fielder to this point. It seems a waste to trade a top shortstop the caliber of Rollins for a first baseman that is not even the best first baseman on your team and then go out a pick up another first baseman.

And let’s not ignore that he traded for a pitcher who is not even in the majors and has one career MLB start. He could have gotten a lot more for Rollins.

REPORTER: Stan Hochman, Philidelphia Daily News. Do you think Adam really doesn’t know who Bill James is?

NIELSEN: I’m not going to question an owner’s intelligence… but Adam is an idiot.

HOCHMAN: Can I quote you on that?

NIELSEN: In bold letters if you like.

REPORTER: Selina Roberts, Sports Illustrated. What are your thoughts on the AROD allegations and is there any penalty for starting known steroid users on one’s fantasy team?

NIELSEN: AROD is a fine player – future hall of famer – but he’s never been a clutch guy. Playing well in these circumstances would require him to be clutch and I don’t see that happening.

If he’s having an off year by his standards and the Yankees are out of it by late July, early August, I could easily see the Yankees shutting him down and getting him that second surgery he is going to require anyway. That will leave Adam in the same hole where he is now, except the matchups will be far more important then.

As for penalties, Adam’s not going to know what hit him if he chooses to start AROD.

ROBERTS: Did you know AROD is gay?

NIELSEN: The dude kissed his reflection in a mirror, what else am I supposed to infer from that?

And by the way, Selina, never write another book again.

Last question…

REPORTER: Neil Best, Los Angeles Times. After four weeks, what are your thoughts on the season?

NIELSEN: I think four weeks tells you nothing about your fantasy team. There are always a few things you learn about your team, but nothing substantial enough to make a determination of who is going to be great and who is not.

For example, I feel safe in saying that Zack Greinke is not going to maintain his 0.40 ERA or that Marco Sutaro is still going to be the fifth best fantasy hitter in September. There is still a lot left to learn about a lot of these teams.

With that said, here is one thought on each team:

Flying Monkeys: Jeff has had the fewest fantasy points scored against him in the first four weeks by a significant margin. When that luck turns and when Greinke starts having excellent starts instead of miraculous starts, we’ll have a better feel for what kind of team Jeff has.

Bill James, Bitch: I’m curious to see what Andrew does with Russell Martin.

A-Holes: Kyle needs to find a way to stabilize his pitching and hope that Teixeira and Upton start figuring some things out quickly.

Homer-Hulks: Kimball’s team hurts by brain.

Cockies: The best think that could happen to Joel is if he trades Santana for hitting. The sooner he does it, the better the rewards.

Zou: Erik could easily win only four matchups this season and just as easily win 20.

Viva El Birdos: Enjoy it while it lasts, buddy.

Smurfs: Has scored only 1332 fantasy points (only Tony is worse) and has allowed 1602 fantasy points (fourth most), yet he is still .500. I don’t know what to make of this.

Saints: Oh Tony…

Extended Review(ed): Andrew Wessley

2009-04-15T00:04:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I posted a bland review of Andrew’s draft just to aggravate him. Here is a bit more extended version of my thoughts on Andrew’s draft.

A quick reminder of Andrew’s Top 10
1 – Miguel Cabrera (1)
2 – Carlos Lee (2)
3 – Brandon Philips (3)
4 – Carl Crawford (3)
5 – Bobby Abreu (5)
6 – Francisco Rodriguez (5)
7 – Torii Hunter (6)
8 – Derek Lowe (9)
9 – Gil Meche (14)
10 – Russell Martin (Kept)

I think Andrew got the sixth best player in the draft with his tenth pick, which is a nice deal for him. I think Kyle and Kimball will regret passing on him for Teixiera and Morneau respectively.

Andrew did whiff on his second round pick. Of all of the outfielders available, Carlos Beltran, Manny Ramirez and Nick Markakis were all better options than Carlos Lee. Lee will still be fine, I just think he could have had a better outfielder here.

I am also not a fan of the Torii Hunter pick. Again, I think Andrew would have been better served going Carlos Beltran in the second round and then Raul Ibanez in the seventh. That would have given him an outfield of Ibanez, Beltran and Abreu, which would be a far more productive fantasy outfield of Lee, Hunter and Abreu.

(Ed. Note: After the first week, an Abreu, Lee and Hunter tandem produced 53 fantasy points. Beltran, Ibanez and Abreu would have combined for 81. The difference in those points would have won Andrew his first week matchup. This is not to say it will maintain itself, but it at least made a difference in week one.)

As much as Andrew probably does not like his Lowe and Meche picks, I like them. The way the draft went, everyone was forced to reach on some pitchers. Reaching on Meche and Lowe is not a bad thing. Lowe pitches in a friendly park, with a solid offense and an excellent ability to keep the ball down and get strikeouts. It is not out of the question that Meche could be a 17 to 20 game winner this season if the Royals are able to come up with a league average offense (which I think they can). Meche was one of the better pitchers in the American League in the second half of the season in 2008 and was also in the top 10 in the AL for strikeouts. Given many of the reaches that occurred in the nether region that was the sixth through tenth rounds, Andrew faired pretty well.

Best Pick:

Gavin Floyd may end up being the best keeper prospect in the league when the season is over. A very nice pick in the twenty-first round.

Worst Pick:

I really, really, really do not like the Carlos Lee pick. I really don’t. Other candidates include: Hunter, Torii.

Reviewed: Andrew Wessley

2009-04-14T00:01:00.000-05:00

Team: I’m Bill James, Bitch
Owner: Andrew Wessley
Draft Pick Order: 10th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Miguel Cabrera (1)
2 – Carlos Lee (2)
3 – Brandon Philips (3)
4 – Carl Crawford (3)
5 – Bobby Abreu (5)
6 – Francisco Rodriguez (5)
7 – Torii Hunter (6)
8 – Derek Lowe (9)
9 – Gil Meche (14)
10 – Russell Martin (Kept)

Thoughts:

It could have been worse, it could have been better.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Carlos Lee.

Worst:
Carlos Lee.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Russell Martin: He’s okay.

1B – Miguel Cabrera: He’s better.

2B – Brandon Philips: Not as good as Cabrera or Martin, but still okay.

3B – Ryan Zimmerman: He’ll be okay.

SS – Stephen Drew: I’ve seen worse.

LF – Carlos Lee: He’s better than Willie Bloomquist.

CF – Torii Hunter: Eh.

RF – Bobby Abreu: Mr. Consistent.

UT – Carl Crawford: It could be worse.

SP1 – CC Sabathia: Keeper.

SP2 – Derek Lowe: Drafted.

SP3 – Gil Meche: Drafted after Lowe.

FLEX – Gavin Floyd: Future keeper.

RP – Jonathan Broxton: Good closer.

RP – Francisco Rodriguez: Another good closer.

RP – Brian Wilson: An okay closer.

General Thoughts:

Meh.

Sarcastic Statement:

There is too much to say about Andrew.

Final Statement

…

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Post Opening Week or Week Two

2009-04-13T02:19:00.004-05:00

Week In Review

Final Scores*

Blue Springs Inoculators – 474.5
I’m Bill James, Bitch – 453

Thoughts:
The Inoculators scored 307 of their 474.5 fantasy points via hitting. The Inoculators won despite being out-pitched by BJB, 216 to 167.5.

Krunk Smurfs – 354.5
Viva El Birdos – 456

Thoughts:
Where in the world did the Birdos come from? Note to Adam: do not count on complete game shutouts from Kyle Lohse and 50-plus point weeks from Emilio Bonifacio all season. Chris Young posted 62 fantasy points this week, but was still 12.5 points behind Kyle Lohse’s output for the week.

The Zou – 267
Texas A-holes – 429.5

Thoughts:
I do not enjoy talking about the A-holes or The Zou. Next!

Rolorado Cockies – 303
Polk County Homer-Hulks – 446.5

Thoughts:
Consider me genuinely frightened by Kimball now. Sheesh. And Josh Johnson?! Holy sh…

San Antonio Saints – 282
Flying Monkeys – 435

Thoughts:
Tony picked up right where he left off in basketball season. Roy Oswalt, Edinson Volquez and Chien-Ming Wang all had terrible weeks. Shockingly, Todd Wellemeyer sucked. I expect Oswalt and Wang to bounce back and for Harden to have a better week next week.

*These finals do not include the points from shutouts posted by, of all people: Kyle Lohse and Aaron Harang. It should be noted that none of these points affected the outcome of any of these matchups.

Week In Preview

Blue Springs Inoculators V San Antonio Saints

General Thought: Remember all of those things I said I expected to happen, Tony? I hope they don’t happen.

Specific Thought: Tony’s three starters set for Monday – Edinson Volquez, Chien-Ming Wang and Jamie Moyer – will dictate who wins this matchup. Nielsen has nobody countering them.

WTF Thought: What makes Budweiser’s “American Ale” an American Ale? Are they suggesting that all other American made ales are not, in fact, American? And isn’t Budweiser owned by a Belgian company? Anyway, I say all of this to say that the St. Louis Cardinals are un-American.

Krunk Smurfs V The Zou

General Thought: I want Jason to win.

Specific Thought: I want Jason to win because I do not like Erik.

WTF Thought: Jason, I think your team name is now outdated because the term “krunk” has to be dead by now. This is why you need to go with a bland, yet always timely name such as: The Blue Springs Inoculators. Boring, yet somewhat compelling because you don’t entirely know what it means.

I’m Bill James, Bitch V Rolorado Cockies

General Thought: I think now would be a good time to mention that my hitting alone outscored Joel, Erik and Tony’s entire team. Not to say this will ever happen again, but you know your team sucks when one facet of another team is outscoring your entire team. Ouch.

Specific Thought: Joel had precisely two hitters who posted more than 15 fantasy points last week. Two. Remember how I said hitting meant something? Joel received 159 fantasy points in a combined effort from Johan Santana, Armando Galarraga, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Marmol and James Shields… and still lost by almost 150 points. HITTING WINS MATCHUPS!!!!!

WTF Thought: Andrew, change your team name. Any name that requires a comma sucks. Bill James Bitches would suffice. Just anything without a comma please.

Texas A-holes V Polk County Homer-Hulks

General Thoughts: I want Kimball to win because I don’t like A-holes.

Specific Thoughts: On the other hand, I want Kimball to lose so I can sleep well at night. Seriously, I have no idea where you got those fantasy points from, Kimball. And you got them despite the fact that Alex Gordon, Jorge Posada, Ian Stewart and Pat Burrell all combined for a whopping 36 points. Honestly, I’m afraid to sleep at night.

WTF Thought: Josh Johnson?! Really???

Viva El Birdos V Flying Monkey

General Thought: Adam… hat tip to you, you lucky son of a crippled monkey.

Specific Thought: Kyle Lohse. Kyle. Fucking. Lohse. Line, please!

Lohse Career: 78-80, 4.67 ERA, 1.413 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 10 H/9, 5.6 K/9
Lohse Week One: 2-0, 1.13 ERA, 0.563 WHIP, .6 BB/9, 4.5 H/9, 4.5 K/9

Seriously? First, please note that Lohse had only eight strikeouts in 16 innings, but only gave up two runs and eight hits. This means 40 of his 48 outs were balls that were put in play. It also means 48 of the 57 batters he faced put the ball in play. You do understand how unbelievably lucky someone has to be to allow only two runs when 84-percent of the batters Lohse faced put the ball in play against him, right? For comparison sake…

Kyle Lohse Shutout: 30 batters faced, 26 balls in play. 86% BIP
Kyle Lohse Career: 5949 batters faced, 4618 balls in play. 78% BIP

Aaron Harang Shutout: 31 batters faced, 21 balls in play. 68% BIP
Johan Santana Sunday (0 ER, 7 IP): 25 batters faced, 11 balls in play. 44% BIP

If anybody here says Dave Duncan is a genious, I’m going to rip off your testicles. This was an unbelievably lucky week for Kyle Lohse. God, I hate St. Louis…

(I’m an angry elf, and slightly bitter.)

WTF Thought: Kyle Lohse?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Jeff, for everyone’s sanity, please kick Adam’s ass this week. Thank you.

Reviewed: Erik Johnson

2009-04-12T03:29:00.001-05:00

Team: The Zou
Owner: Erik Johnson
Draft Pick Order: 9th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Chase Utley (1)
2 – Brandon Webb (2)
3 – Ichiro (2)
4 – Jon Lester (7)
5 – Chipper Jones (4)
6 – Yovani Gallardo (7)
7 – Connor Jackson (9)
8 – Chad Billingsley (Kept)
9 – Lastings Milledge (11)
10 – David Price (13)

Thoughts:

Here is where I’m going to differ in evaluating Erik as opposed to everyone else: Erik did not draft enough pitching. Well, let me rephrase that: He didn’t draft the right pitching.

Here would have been my first five picks if I were Erik:

1 – Brandon Webb (also actual pick)
2 – Jake Peavy
3 – Ichiro (also actual pick)
4 – James Shields
5 – Francisco Rodriguez

As has been discussed, and will be discussed again and again, Erik was really the only team lined up to draft pitching heavy and still be in good shape. What Erik needed to supplement in his draft was reliable, red-flagless starting pitching. Now, of course, this does not mean that none of these pitchers will ever suffer from injury (see: Brandon Webb), but the amount of red flags laying around with Erik’s keeper selections is enough to make Wall Street jealous.

A quick reminder of Erik’s keepers: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett. All four of whom have serious injury or recession risks ahead of them. Again, this does not mean they will get hurt or injured, but if they do and Erik has nothing to back them up with, you can kiss his season goodbye.

Erik chose to supplement those four with Webb, Lester, Gallardo and Price. Outside of Webb, Lester is not the greatest fantasy player due to his strikeout rate and he already has some injury risk (though not severe). Gallardo is coming off major surgery and has never pitched a full major league season. David Price started the season in AAA and has about 18 innings of big league experience.

With the changes in pitching scoring, it favors the individual pitcher’s performance and not his team (10 pts for QS instead of 10 pts for W’s). With this in mind, Peavy becomes more valuable in this league than in other’s because his team’s performance isn’t so heavily weighted on his production. James Shields is a more proven and steady pitcher fantasy-wise than Lester and is less of an injury risk (and makes more sense being drafted in the fourth round than Lester). Francisco Rodriguez, while not high on Erik’s importance, was the best available arm in the fifth round. He will score about as many points as an above average starting pitcher and would add consistent points.

Personally, I’d rather go into a season backing up Erik’s big four with Webb, Peavy and Shields, than what he actually selected. Given how Erik’s roster is set up, he would have had a better chance at winning with Peavy on his roster than Utley or Shields over Lester.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Raul Ibanez. How this guy dropped to round 17 in unbelievable to me given some other team’s issues with left fielders. Anyway, it is an absolute bonus for Erik to get Ibanez for such little cost.

Worst:
Lastings Milledge. So bad of a pick that it makes taking David Price in the 10th round look like a steal.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Chris Iannetta: Let’s face it, after the big three there really isn’t much out there when it comes to catchers. Taking a flyer on a guy who plays in Colorado can’t be too bad of an idea can it?

1B – Prince Fielder: If he wants to, he could hit 50 homers, something Erik isn’t used to.

2B – Chase Utley: Even though I think Erik should have gone Peavy here, it doesn’t mean I think Utley sucks. The guy can rake.

3B – Chipper Jones: I have a hard time seeing Jones go a full season at the pace he set last year before he got hurt. If he does, it will help solidify a strong infield.

SS – Orlando Cabrera: Cabrera has a good shot at finishing in the middle of the pack for shortstops.

LF – Connor Jackson: Hits for a decent average, but he doesn’t hit for a lot of power.

CF – Lastings Milledge: Ouch.

RF – Ichiro Suzuki: When is this guy’s legs going to go? Isn’t he like 34 or something? (He’s 35.) Wow, they make’em differently in Japan don’t they?

UT – Raul Ibanez: You know, Erik took Connor Jackson over Ibanez in the seventh round. At the end of the season who do you think is going to be worth a seventh round pick, Ibanez or Jackson?

SP1 – Tim Lincecum: Strikeout machine that could break down at any moment.

SP2 – Brandon Webb: A stud who should see an added bonus more than others with the pitching changes.

SP3 – Cole Hamels: Will be on the DL in 5, 4, 3…

FLEX – Chad Billingsley: Will be meeting Lincecum and Hamels on the DL in 5, 4, 3…

RP – Kerry Wood: Eeeks!

RP – Chad Qualls: Double eeks!

RP – So Bad I Don’t Know Who To Put Here: That’s not good…

General Thoughts:

No one will rely on health more than Erik this season. If his pitching stays upright, he should be back in the playoffs.

Sarcastic Statement:

I like you, Erik.

Final Statement

Erik’s, Erik. What else is there to say. Erik is Erik. (Note: Only Andrew is going to get this joke… maybe.)

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Jeff Kimball

2009-04-08T03:06:00.001-05:00

Team: Polk County Homer-Hulks
Owner: Jeff Kimball
Draft Pick Order: 8th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Justin Morneau (2)
2 – Roy Halladay (2)
3 – Alex Gordon (10)
4 – Alex Rios (4)
5 – Robinson Cano (7)
6 – Joey Votto (6)
7 – John Danks (15)
8 – Yunel Escobar (n/a)
9 – Joe Saunders (15)
10 – J.J. Putz (n/a)

Thoughts:

Excuse me, I’m going to need an adult beverage before I begin…

One didn’t work, I’m going to have to go back for another. Hold on…

[Eight drinks later…]

ALriGt tHAt ShOUld DO it. WWWWWWWWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTTTT TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

***

[Four days ago, in a small church room in Bolivar, Missouri, Jeff Kimball sits amongst several strangers at an "Overdraftaholics Annonymous" meeting and begins to pour out what has been ailing him for the last several days.]

Kimball: Hello, I’m Jeff Kimball and I’m an overdraftaholic. A few weeks ago, I drafted Alex Gordon at least seven rounds too high.

[Mutters from the rest of the group of “I’ve been there buddy.”]

Group Leader: I’m glad you can admit that, Jeff. Now for –

Kimball: Wait, I’m not done yet. I also took John Danks in the seventh round.

[A few glance from some of the members suggest that Kimball is a hard-core overdraftaholic.]

Group Leader: I’m glad for your honesty, Jeff. Now –

Kimball: I also took two 15th round projected picks with my seventh and ninth round picks.

[One group member begins to cry, another man curses aloud. The Group Leader is starting to feel over-burdened and starts to sweat a little.]

Group Leader (voice trembling): Good… good, Jeff. We’re going… we’re… work thru this... we will.

Kimball (his face devoid of emotion): I also took two players in the top 10 rounds who were not even drafted in the top 21 rounds of normal, non-keeper drafts.

[Mass suicide occurs.]

Kimball (amongst the carnage): What? What did I say? Aw, come on guys!

***

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Um… Jorge Posada. Yeah, Posada could be a steal in round twenty-three. He could…

Worst:
Let’s go with rounds one thru 25 (minus round 23 of course). Look, I’m just going to assume that Kimball had a list of guys he wanted and just went with it no matter the round. I’m sure that’s what he did. Positive. I hope…

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Jorge Posada: Well, it was either him or Bengie Molina…

1B – Justin Morneau: I would like him a lot more if I knew Joe Mauer was healthy and that Carlos Gomez was going to take the necessary steps to be a good leadoff hitter this season. Alas, I don’t know either of those things.

2B – Robinson Cano: It could be worse. A mid-range second baseman at best.

3B – Alex Gordon: For Kimball’s sake, the Royals season’s sake and for my sanity, I hope Alex Gordon goes off this season. Oh Lord, I hope.

SS – Ryan Theriot: Theriot is an excellent mid-range option at shortstop. Theriot will split time with Yunel Escobar for Kimball. Escobar is another mid-range guy. Kimball has a lot of those mid-range kind of guys on his team.

LF – Pat Burrell: I suspect a drop off from Burrell this season from last. I also don’t like all the good pitching he is going to see in the AL East.

CF – Shane Victorino: The Flyin’ Hawaiian is an excellent gel guy in a lineup full of gel guys.

RF – Alex Rios: Has a high ceiling, but you have to wonder if he’ll ever reach it. His strikeouts and lack of power concern me.

UT – Joey Votto: A good prospect for a breakout season in a hitter’s park.

SP1 – Cliff Lee: Massive drop-off forthcoming in a fortnight. Just wanted to say “fortnight” that’s all…

SP2 – Roy Halladay: One of only three pitchers I felt could reasonably be picked in the top three rounds. Oh, and he’s really good.

SP3 – Scott Baker: DL’d for the moment. Solid pitcher, but you’ve got to worry about his strikeout rate in relation to fantasy.

FLEX – Josh Johnson: Supposedly, he’s going to win the NL Cy Young… and so are half the other pitchers in the National League. I hate preseason predictions.

RP – Jonathan Papelbon: Stud. Health is an issue, though.

RP – J.J. Putz: Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm… It could be worse I suppose…

RP – Kevin Gregg: Oh God, it got worse.

General Thoughts:

I’d rather not talk about it…

Sarcastic Statement:

Championship!!!

Final Statement

I’d still rather not talk about it. Really, I don’t want to. Seriously, shut up, I don’t want to talk about it!

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Joel Schilb

2009-04-07T03:59:00.001-05:00

Team: Rolorado Cockies
Owner: Joel Schilb
Draft Pick Order: 6th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Johan Santana (1)
2 – Francisco Liriano (5)
3 – Derrek Lee (4)
4 – James Shields (5)
5 – Matt Hilliday (Kept)
6 – Chris Davis (5)
7 – Corey Hart (5)
8 – Carlos Marmol (6)
9 – Javier Vasquez (11)
10 – Milton Bradley (10)

Thoughts:

My God, my God, why have you forsaken me? What the hell was Joel thinking for the first 30 minutes of the draft? And that was a rhetorical question, Joel, so please do not answer so as to not make the rest of us dumber for trying to desifer the ill fated logic that was flowing thru that organ some of us refer to as a “brain”.

Let’s start with this: Having Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, James Shields and Javier Vazquez on one’s team is not a bad thing – it is most certainly a good thing. But this is not a player evaluation, this is a draft evaluation. And key to a draft evaluation is a little thing called “value”. V-a-l-u-e. For instance, if one is looking for an iPod and the average cost is $150 and a store is selling a brand new one for $135, than one is getting a $15 value. If one buys the same iPod for $1000, than they are either doing it for charity or they are just flat out desperate to own an iPod. I think the latter reflects Joel’s pitching strategy.

Francisco Liriano is a very good pitcher when healthy. But the problem with Liriano is that you have to add the whole “when healthy” tag to him whenever one speaks of him because, you know, he has health issues. This is why he was going in the seventh round in real drafts and was valued as a fifth rounder in our draft. Additionally, it was the appeal of keeping Liriano that made him a more interesting player. This will be his first full season of being in the big leagues since his rookie year. Expecting him to produce at a second round pick is asking a lot. And lets also not forget that Liriano cannot be kept now because he was taken in the second round – what good was there taking him there?

Here’s my suggestion: If you are hell bent on pitching, take Jake Peavy in round two. Is it a reach? Yeah, a little, but it is way less risky than Liriano. If you really want Lirano, wait for him in the fourth round. It’s still a minor reach, but you have the added bonus of keeping him and if he’s not there you still have Peavy. Additionally, as you know, Shields was still there at four. A threesome of Santana, Peavy and Shields is far more enticing than Santana, Liriano and Shields.

But here’s my bigger problem: the hellish idea that starting pitching wins this league. In 2008, only 10 pitchers scored more than 600 points. Ten. And of those 11, only five scored more than 700 points. To put that in prospective, 10 hitters scored more than 800 points last season and 62 hitters scored more than 600 points last season. And it’s not like hitters totally out-weigh pitchers in terms of roster space. Generally, a team carries 12 to 13 pitchers on their 25 man roster and there are at least 150 starting pitchers in the league at any given time – three times more than any other position on the field.

But here it comes, the counterargument: But if there are only 10 elite pitchers and a half a billion hitters, than pitchers have more value because there are not as many of them. And furthermore, if there are only ten pitchers worth having, one should spend high picks on them to get those players. WRONG! But I don’t want to go into this yet, I’m saving that for another blog and my head is about to explode out of anger and frustration.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Kelly Shoppach. A lot of people are very high on Kelly (I’m not one of them), but many would point to this pick as an absolute steal in the 19th round. Since I’m not high on him, this is probably a good sign for Joel.

Worst:
75% of his draft. Honestly, I hate this draft from on so many levels, I don’t know where to begin. But with that said, Joel made the playoffs last season and I didn’t so I’ll leave it there.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Geovany Soto: There is some risk of regression this season, but I think he’ll end up being the second best catcher (behind Brian McCann) this season.

1B – Derrek Lee: An excellent producing first baseman in a high-octane lineup. Injuries are an issue with Lee as is the fact that he plays for a cursed team.

2B – Alexei Ramirez: Still have no idea why he was kept and I think he is more likely to suffer from a sophomore jinx as opposed to having a breakout season.

3B – Chris Davis: A very risky pick in that he strikes out a lot, but does hit for a lot of power in a hitter friendly ballpark. I had him on my team at the end of the season last year and noticed he was a very streaky hitter. Joel needs to hope Davis times his slumps for weeks that won’t hurt him.

SS – Jhonny Peralta: Ugh. I suppose it could be worse. I would mind this if 1) he wasn’t a keeper and 2) he had a stronger lineup around him.

LF – Matt Holliday: Holliday is a great hitter, but I do expect some of his power to decrease in a not so friendly park for hitters. There is also not much around Holliday, besides Jason Giambi, in terms of possible RBI situations or run scoring opportunities. It will be interesting to see how much he falls off – I don’t expect it to be too much, though.

CF – Chris B. Young: Yikes. Nice power potential, but his strikeouts are a killer. Young will have to see great improvement in this area if he wants to be fantasy relevant.

This seems like a good time to note how terribly awful Joel’s lineup is. This may also be a good time to point out that only three of these players scored more than 600 points last season. That is an unbelievable feat to build such a terrible lineup. But when you see Joel’s draft, it makes sense. Joel is going to regret this.

RF – Corey Hart: Corey. Hart. Wow. I should mention that Raul Ibanez was still on the board when Joel took Hart in the seventh round.

UT – Milton Bradley: Will give you 75 solid games this season, and will be hurt for the rest.

SP1 – Johan Santana: One of five pitchers to score more than 700 points last season.

SP2 – Francisco Liriano: Who knows what you’ll get from him in terms of a full season. If he stays healthy he should be solid.

SP3 – James Shields: I expect him, and the Rays as a whole, to regress a little this season. Call it a World Series hangover. With that said, he should still be a top 30 pitcher.

FLEX – Javier Vazquez: A consistent guy who will not light the world on fire, but will not kill your chances of winning a matchup.

RP – Carlos Marmol: He won’t start the season as the closer, but I do expect him to finish it there.

RP – George Sherrill: I question how many save opportunities he will have with the Orioles this year. Very much so.

RP – Huston Street: Streaky, talented, injury-prone, fantasy nightmare.

General Thoughts:

Joel ignored his lineup so much that it has almost rendered his top starters useless. I’m very skeptical of Ryan Dempster, Manny Parra, Armando Galarraga and Francisco Liriano being the guys Joel thinks they will be and think Joel has completely ignored the core of what makes up a great fantasy team. Add in his difficult division and I do not see a repeat trip to the playoffs in his future.

Sarcastic Statement:

Joel’s lineup is right up there with 1927 Yankees. If only he had some pitching…

Final Statement

Now would be a good time to start determining who you’re going to take with your top three overall pick, Joel.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Week One: On My Signal, Unleash Hell

2009-04-06T03:37:00.003-05:00

Baseball: Where people get excited about John Kruk being in their living-rooms and bedrooms late at night.

Let the Fantasy Begin!!!

Oh Fantasy Baseball, how I’ve missed you so. And to think, this year I have a reasonable shot at winning simply because I’m in the same division as Jason, Jeff W., Adam and, uh, that other guy who is no good… Tony!

I want to start by thanking you guys for totally #@$%ing up the draft. It gave me renewed hope, something I desperately needed. I especially want to thank everyone who bought into this idea that starting pitching wins fantasy leagues. I also want to thank Erik for leading these stupid souls on a path of despair and loneliness by giving them false hope with your array of starting pitchers and back-to-back championship game appearances. Oh you fools…

Here’s to the worst of luck for everyone and may the baseball gods have mercy on your souls in a way that benefits me.

A Few Predictions

90% of the league is going to suck. I won’t tell you who the 10% who isn’t is, but I think you’ve got a good idea who it’s going to be.

We are all going to be mad we didn’t take Alex Gordon in the third round. Consequently, most of you will be mad made you took a pitcher instead.

There will be another steroid scandal in The League this year, but it won’t be the biggest scandal of the year. Yeah, I don’t know what that means either.

Matt Weiters, David Price and Cameron Maybin will all suck this year. The Rookie of the Year Award will go to someone none of us (except for Erik of course) have heard of before.

Jesus Christ will not return to earth during the baseball season.

The Royals will not be out of it by August; the Cardinals will be out of it by late July.

Cole Hamels and Tim Lincecum will each spend time on the DL this season. Lincecum will also fail to pitch in the All-Star Game again this season because he will, again, contract the “flu.”*

*He’ll be too hung-over to pitch.

I will not go on a single date this summer; you can take that to the bank.

The Week In Preview

Inoculators V I’m Bill James, Bitch

General Thought: I own Andrew in matchups that don’t matter.

Specific Thought: I will win by one point, guaranteed.

WTF Thought: Fact: Carrots taste like unsalted, de-moistened, hardened peanuts.

Krunk Smurfs V Viva El Birdos

General Thought: If you really want to know how Jason’s draft went, just see how he ends up at the end of the season. I set the over/under at 3.5 total moves he makes this season.

Specific Thought: Adam’s team is not stacked and, as a result, he will lose to Jason. And Jason sucks, too.

WTF Thought: Would “Lime-Lemon Soda” taste different than “Lemon-Lime Soda”?

San Antonio Saints V Flying Monkeys

General Thought: I’d like Jeff’s team name if he got rid of the “flying” part and replaced it with “Feces Throwing”. Or something to that affect. I do like monkeys, though. Excellent mascot choice.

Specific Thought: I hope Tony pays more attention to this team than he did his basketball team. I fear he won’t. Jeff will win on the grounds that Tony doesn’t realize the season started yet.

WTF Thought: The world would truly be a better place if monkeys could fly. I believe this whole-heartedly.

The Zou V Texas A-Roids

General Thought: The “Texas A-Roids” will here to forth be known as the “Texas A-holes.” One, because I hate the state of Texas, and two, because I’m tired of steroid-related names. And Kyle is a two-time offender of this rule. Change your name A-hole(s).

Specific Thought: The Zou and the A-holes will finish in a tie, because I hate mizzou and Texas equally.

WTF Thought: Which is worse: Being called an “ass” or being called an “asshole”? And if you chose “asshole,” why? Would an “ass” include the asshole in addition to the ugliness around it? Just sayin’…

Rolorado Cockies V Polk County Homer-Hulks

General Thought: Wow, this is a matchup I’d like to avoid thinking about. So, I’ll stop now.

Specific Thought: Kimball’s team mascot picture is the best team mascot picture in all of fantasy.

WFT Thought: Do you think Homer could do equally as good of job at pitching as Sidney Ponson? In addition, I’d like to think he’d be a better golfer than John Daily (though I’m convinced John Daily IS Homer Simpson) and Homer would be a better center than Greg Ostertag. I believe everything I just wrote. Seriously.

Opening Week - Reviewed: Ben Nielsen (via Erik)

2009-04-05T15:13:00.005-05:00

It's about time: Baseball is here. Good luck to all. An Opening Day post comes out tomorrow with the rest of the draft reviews coming out Tuesday through Friday (I promise).

For now, here is Erik's review of my draft. Enjoy.

***

Team: Inoculators
Owner: Ben Nielsen
Draft Pick Order: 5th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Grady Sizemore (1)
2 – Nick Markakis (2)
3 – Brian Roberts (3)
4 – Brian McCann(3)
5 – Joe Nathan (4)
6 – Mariano Rivera (5)
7 – Carlos Pena (6)
8 – Troy Tulowitzki (7)
9 – Jose Valverde (8)
10 – Brett Myers (14)

Thoughts:
It has been said that you cannot win a fantasy league with your first two picks, but you can definitely lose it (just ask me and my second-round Troy Tulowitzki pick last year). It is for this reason that I like Ben’s first two picks. They are both solid and steady, but yet young enough were some growth could take place this year. The only issue here is that Ben took two outfielders when he had already kept Ryan Braun (LF), Josh Hamilton (CF, RF) and Carlos Quentin (LF). So, this essentially means that Ben filled his utility spot with his first pick (in theory filling the CF spot with Sizemore and moving Quentin to the utility spot) and then proceeded to fill a bench spot with his second pick (with that pick, Markaksi filled the utility spot and Quentin was moved to the bench). And while I am a proponent for taking the best available player, it was Ben who so adamantly disliked Adam’s pick of Jose Reyes with the number four pick because he was drafting his utility spot with his first pick. I think a strong case could be made for taking Miguel Cabrera with the fifth pick, which would be a big upgrade over Carlos Pena, and then selecting Markakis (or any other top-level CF or RF) in the second round to fill his RF spot and move Quentin to the Utility role. While Ben had no guarantee that Markakis would be there to fill his RF spot in the second round, Hamilton is eligible in CF and RF so there was a very strong possibility that Sizemore, Markakis, Beltran OR Ichiro would have been there for the taking with his second pick and filled out his outfield nicely. Having said all of that, Ben now possesses solid trade bait with his wealth of stud outfielders.
While Ben got very solid values in the first three rounds, I am not a fan of the Brian McCann pick. I know the values that Ben uses say it was a “steal,” but I don’t particularly like those values. The ADP’s are based on other drafts where the scoring system does not mirror our unique league. I think the fourth round is too early to take a catcher with all the possible injuries that they may face. McCann has been one of the most durable backstops in the game for his first three years and yet he has played an average of 135 games per season. I think in the fourth round, I would prefer to draft somebody who might exceed 140 games, which McCann will not.
In drafting Tulowitzki, Ben took the last shortstop that could really separate himself from the pack. After the “big three” of Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins, there was a big drop-off to the next shortstops, Michael Young and Orlando Cabrera. In Tulowitzki, Ben got an undervalued player who can bridge that wide gap.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Kelvim Escobar and John Smoltz. I am not going to say that either of these pitchers will be relevant in fantasy baseball this year, but they both have the potential to be and Ben got them for near nothing in the 24th and 25th rounds. Reports are good on Escobar so far and Ben needs a solid season from one of these players to offset his very shaky starting pitching.

Worst:
Jair Jurrjens, Andy Sonnastine and Elvis Andrus. Jurrjens and Sonnastine are nice #4 or 5 starters in real baseball, but they don’t miss enough bats to be taken in the 13th and 16th rounds. Especially when you consider that players like Paul Maholm weren’t even drafted (Maholm outperformed both Jurrjens and Sonnastine last year and has an outstanding spring – nice pick-up Kimball). As for Andrus, he is a great prospect, but what makes him so great is his glove. Diving plays don’t count for much in fantasy. Because of his speed, he will become relevant playing in that line-up, but not this year … plus Ben already dropped him.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Brian McCann: Very solid catcher. Should be one of the top-three catchers in fantasy this season.

1B – Carlos Pena: Struck out 166 times last year. Combine that with a sub .250 batting average and I am not a fan. As an example of our odd scoring system taking effect, Conor Jackson outscored Pena by nearly 60 points last year, but has an ADP that is about six rounds lower … go figure.

2B – Brian Roberts: Great player who does not seem to get the attention of Utley and Kinsler because he plays for the Orioles and does not hit a ton of homers. Great value in the third round.

3B – Evan Longoria: A great talent, it will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to him with a full offseason to study the film.

SS – Troy Tulowitzki: Big-time upside. We will see how he bounces back from the first real struggles he has faced in professional baseball.

LF – Ryan Braun: One of the best hitters in the game. However, it is interesting to note that he was only the eighth best LF in the league last season. Very odd, and not good for a 10-team league if it repeats.

CF – Grady Sizemore: The only thing that could mess this pick up is injuries. Sizemore is one of my favorite players to watch because of the reckless nature with which he plays. Injuries are definitely a risk here, although his back-up would be …

RF – Josh Hamilton: Another injury risk who is a top-10 player if healthy. If Hamilton can keep his head straight and body intact, he gives Ben another great bat in the outfield.

UT – Nick Markakis: Outside of Jose Reyes, this has to be the best Utility player in the league. Markakis continues to get better and that should continue into 2009 as long as he can get some protection in the line-up.

SP1 – ummmm …. Mark Buehrle?: Consistent and aging, Buehrle will need a solid year in a hitter-friendly park to anchor down Ben’s weak staff.

SP2 – Brett Myers: A strikeout pitcher in a contract year. You have to love that. A fly-ball pitcher with a tendency to give up the homer pitching in Philadelphia. You cannot like that. Who knows what Ben will get out of the first starting pitcher he took.

SP3 – Joba Chamberlain: Great strikeout pitcher. If he’s healthy and in the rotation all year, will be Ben’s ace. Injuries and Phil Hughes scare me here. Good value though for the upside.

FLEX – Kelvim Escobar: Supposedly the velocity is coming back nicely. Generally the location takes awhile to return though.

RP – Joe Nathan: Consistent and a stud.

RP – Mariano Rivera: Aging and coming off surgery. Will this be the year he finally struggles?

RP – Jose Valverde: Throws gas and gets strikeouts, but lives on the edge with his control.

General Thoughts

Ben has a great line-up and a solid core of relievers. He will need to make a deal or some nice free-agent acquisitions to sure up his starting rotation though. He has a lot of guys with good potential, but I’m guessing between Smoltz, Escobar, Chamberlain, Buchholz and Myers that at least two don’t make a significant contribution this season.

Sarcastic Statement

According to Ben, the most intelligent thing to do in this league is fill your utility spot with your first pick.

Final Statement

Ben will have a completely different team than this when the season is over. It happens every year. The only question is whether it will be better or not.

Reviewed: Kyle Morris

2009-04-02T06:07:00.000-05:00

Team: A-Roids
Owner: Kyle Morris
Draft Pick Order: 5th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Mark Teixeira (1)
2 – Manny Ramirez (2)
3 – John Lackey (4)
4 – B.J. Upton (3)
5 – Alfonso Soriano (Kept)
6 – Rafael Furcal (5)
7 – Scott Kazmir (7)
8 – Matt Cain (10)
9 – Matt Garza (11)
10 – Adrian Beltre (8)

Thoughts:

Mark Teixeira over Miguel Cabrera was a bad decision in my opinion. I’m going to avoid the statistical comparisons and simplify the argument with this: One does not take risks with their first round pick. Why was the Teixeira pick a risk? The beast that is the New York Yankees.

Look, one knows the upside and down side of drafting Miguel Cabrera. In his first full year in Detroit, Cabrera set career highs in home runs and runs batted in and in the second half of the season hit 21 homers and posted a .951OPS. He has clearly has figured out the learning curve of the league and proven he can hit in the large confines of Comerica Park. Teixeira has proven nothing in terms of how he’ll handle the New York pressure. And with AROD out the first six weeks, all the pressure will be on him to produce. I don’t know what is going to happen to him if the Yankees get off to a slow start.

I’m not saying Teixeira sucks or that he won’t be good this season. The problem is that I don’t know how good he’ll be, but I know I have a solid idea of what Cabrera will do. That’s why I would have picked Cabrera there and avoided the risk.

With that said, I do like the Manny, Upton and Kazmir picks. I’m most impressed that he managed to get Kazmir in the round he was supposed to get him. I figured Kazmir must have gone in round two the way pitching was coming off the board. Kazmir could become an interesting keeper prospect if he continues to improve and as he enters the prime of his career. The kid led the Rays in strike outs despite pitching 60 fewer innings than James Shields for crying out loud.

Matt Cain is an interesting pick to me just because of the devaluation of losses this season. He strikes out (and walks) a ton, but has the worst luck ever. Trust me on this, I’ve had him at some point the last two seasons.

With this said, Kyle managed to navigate the horrific 6 through 10 rounds without making too many disastrous picks. While Cain and Garza were overvalued, their question marks are far fewer than what some of the other decisions made around The League.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Fausto Carmona, Andy Pettitte and Matt Weiters. Carmona: A steal in round 20 if he returns to 2007 status; If not, it was a worthwhile risk. Pettitte: Should pad his stats as the fourth starter in that rotation and will outplay his round 22 value. Weiters: Because Kyle may be the only person in fantasy this year to not overdraft him.

Worst:
Rafael Furcal: Two words for him: Mike Sweeney. I do not trust people with back issues and I certainly don’t trust them in the sixth round (even if he was taken bellow value there).

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Ryan Doumit: I do not see him being the guy he was last year, but, given what was available, it wasn’t a terrible pick and he didn’t overvalue him.

1B – Mark Teixeira: Already said my peace on him.

2B – Mike Aviles: He will drop off from last season, the question is how much? He is an intriguing keeper prospect though if he puts together another nice season. I’d rather have him than Dan Uggla.

3B – Adrian Beltre: Strikeouts and injuries have caused me to not be a very big fan of Beltre. I would have gone a different direction in round 10 and taken a third baseman latter in the draft. There wouldn’t much difference between that guy and what Beltre will do this season anyway.

SS – Rafael Furcal: Mike Sweeney…..

LF – Manny Ramirez: I’m curious to see how happy he will be after the way this offseason went down.

CF – B.J. Upton: Upton was more valuable last season because he qualified at second base. He is not so valuable this year stuck in centerfield. The x-factor in that is if he carries over his power from October into this season.

RF – Magglio Ordonez: I gave my thoughts about him in the keeper blog. Something to add is the possibility he gets traded mid-season. Stating the obvious: A trade will clearly have a big impact on his value depending on where he goes.

UT – Alfonso Soriano: I imagine Jason Bay will see more time here as the season progresses.

SP1 – John Lackey: DL’ed.

SP2 – Matt Cain: The kid will flirt with 200 strikeouts this season and maybe 250 if he can figure out a way to manage his pitch count.

SP3 – Matt Garza: He has mediocre strikeout numbers, but will put up consistent fantasy points, which is more than I can say about most of the guys taken in rounds 6 through 10.

FLEX – Scott Kazmir: If he can go a full 32 starts and get around 200 innings, I’m convinced he will reach 275 strikeouts.

RP – Joakim Soria: The Mexicutioner!!!

RP – Heath Bell: The guy being executed by the Mexicutioner!!!

RP – Matt Lindstrom: So bad (at fantasy) he’s not even worth being executed.

General Thoughts:

Kyle did a good job of staying within value and putting together some good pieces. But a bad set of keepers, some bad early luck (Ervin Santana and John Lackey) and too many question marks leaves him staring down a .500 season.

Sarcastic Statement:

Kyle must be soooo glad he reached for John Lackey in the third round. Oh well, at least he has Ervin Santana!

Final Statement

Matt Weiters will have a below average rookie season, prompting Kyle to not keep him for 2010. Weiters will then be taken in the 22 round by someone and become an absolute fantasy stud. Or maybe not…

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Jason Willey

2009-03-31T17:58:00.000-05:00

Team: Krunk Smurfs
Owner: Jason Willey
Draft Pick Order: 3rd Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – David Wright (1)
2 – Ryan Howard (1)
3 – Jake Peavy (3)
4 – Matt Kemp (2)
5 – Joe Mauer (4)
6 – Derek Jeter (4)
7 – Kevin Slowey (11)
8 – Justin Verlander (11)
9 – Brian Fuentes (8)
10 – Mark DeRosa (10)

Thoughts:

In terms of value, Jason’s first six picks were very nice. While I do not consider Jeter a good fantasy player anymore, taking him two rounds later than where he was going to go is very acceptable. Jake Peavy was one of the more sane high round picks and the decision to take David Wright over Jose Reyes was a wise one.

What he was think, then, when he got to round seven baffles me. Kevin Slowey? Round seven? What is more confusing is that he took a decisively better pitcher in the next round. I think this perfectly explains the draft. If someone asked me to explain the draft, I’d say look at Jason’s seventh and then eighth round picks and try to determine the logic used there. Rounds six through 10 were just insane and I think these picks encapsulate that fact.

Mark DeRosa in the 10th round seems strange to me. It is odd that a utility player goes in the top 10 rounds, but he did. I wonder what DeRosa will be like playing every day at second base in Cleveland. For the Royals sake I hope he sucks.

One thing that is going to be true about Jason’s team is he is going to strikeout a ton. Here are some of the 2008 strikeout totals from some of the players he drafted and kept (walks in parenthesis):

Ryan Howard: 199 (81)
Mark DeRosa: 106 (69)
David Wright: 118 (94)
Adam Dunn: 164 (122)
Jay Bruce: 110 (33)
Matt Kemp: 153 (46)
Justin Upton: 121 (54)
Luke Scott: 102 (53)

If you are counting at home, that’s eight of Jason’s 15 hitters that struck out 100 times or more last season. Only Joe Mauer walked more than he struck out last season.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
There are three picks that I really like from Jason: Justin Upton (14), Adam Dunn (13), Jim Thome (19).
I like the Thome pick simply based on value. Thome is in his final season with the White Sox and you wonder if he won’t be playing for one last big payday. Plus, the ball flies out of U.S. Cellular Field. I like the Upton pick because of his upside. If this is Upton’s breakout year and he becomes the player that many think he can be, he will be of excellent value at round 14. If not, Jason didn’t really lose anything there. Adam Dunn equals Ryan Howard only Howard gets more respect because he plays for a better team (I guess).

Ryan Howard (last two seasons average): .259/.364/.562, 94 BB, 199 K, 133 OPS+
Adam Dunn (last two seasons average): .250/.386/.533, 111 BB, 164 K, 133 OPS+

(This thought leads me to a Royals post that I’m going to throw up on the blog sometime.)

Worst:
Kevin Slowey. Why? Just… why?

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Joe Mauer: His health concerns me. Of course, if he is healthy, he is a top three catcher.

1B – Ryan Howard: The dude is going to strike out… a ton. Better hope he walks enough to offset the strikeouts or else some of his home runs are going to go towards canceling out his whiffs and not supplementing his fantasy points.

2B – Mark DeRosa: I don’t know what an everyday Mark DeRosa looks like. I’ve got to wonder when fatigue sets in as well as how quickly he’ll adjust to the American League.

3B – David Wright: Equals fantasy stud.

SS – Derek Jeter: I don’t like Derek Jeter as a player and I don’t like him in fantasy.* There you go.

*I would love him as a player if he didn’t play for the Yankees.

LF – Adam Dunn: The Ryan Howard clone. Did you know that Dunn has hit at least 40 home runs and walked 100 times in five straight seasons? Just sayin’…

CF – Jay Bruce: Jason better hope Bruce improves his discipline at the plate or else this is going to be a long year for him in centerfield.

RF – Andre Ethier: A nice glue piece with a weird last name.

UT – Matt Kemp: Jason likes him some Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospects doesn’t he? Actually, he likes outfield prospects in general it seems. Three of his four outfielders that are starting are all prospect-type guys.

SP1 – Clayton Kershaw: Still a year or two away from being fantasy relevant.

SP2 – Jake Peavy: It should be interesting to see if he gets traded by the deadline. That certainly was a good thing for CC Sabathia. You wonder what kind of effect it will have on Peavy.

SP3 – Kevin Slowey: Ugh…

FLEX – Johnny Cueto: A disastrous keeper selection especially given the ballpark.

RP – Brad Lidge: I don’t know how much to trust last season, but is certainly an excellent closer if he has truly rebounded from being Pujolsed.

RP – Matt Capps: He won’t get you a lot of strikeouts, but he should post 30 plus saves even for a bad Pirates team.

RP – Brian Fuentes: A very nice strikeout pitcher who will receive a ton of save opportunities playing for the Angels.

General Thoughts:

Strikeouts will be the achilies heel for Jason, but he should be rewarded for not falling into the pitching trap in the first six rounds. The Slowey pick still sucks, but the Verlander pick should redeem him.

Sarcastic Statement:

Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn have made excellent strides this offseason in making more contact to reduce their strikeouts and Kevin Slowey is a true fantasy stud in the making.

Final Statement

Jason is going to have to make a few moves if he wants his team to make the playoffs, but we all know that won’t happen. What may be his saving grace is that he’ll be in the Losers Division and may be able to sneak out a few more victories than he should.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Tony Allen

2009-03-30T05:41:00.000-05:00

Team: San Antonio Saints
Owner: Tony Allen
Draft Pick Order: 2nd Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Hanley Ramirez (1)
2 – Roy Oswalt (3)
3 – Kevin Youkilis (3)
4 – Nate McLouth (4)
5 – Vladimir Guerrero (3)
6 – Adrian Gonzalez (4)
7 – Rich Harden (7)
8 – A.J. Burnett (7)
9 – Max Scherzer (12)
10 – Chone Figgins (8)

Thoughts:

I think Tony ended up with the guy who is going to be the number one in fantasy, Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez move to the third spot in the order is going to greatly increase his RBI opportunities and free him to swing for more power as opposed to taking the leadoff approach. He’ll still score a lot of runs with Uggla and Hermida behind him. I don’t think his move to the three hole will affect his speed numbers, but if it does, the added RBI will take care of whatever small drop happens there.

I absolutely hate the Roy Oswalt pick. Well, maybe not as much as I hate other picks in this draft, but I didn’t like it when it happened and I don’t like it several days after the fact. My special little ESPN Adjusted deal has him as a fringe 3rd/4th round pick, so taking him at the end of the second round is enough of a reach to make me somewhat angry. I’m not saying the guy suck, look at the man’s production from 2004 to 2008. My problem with this pick is that I believe it is the one that set off the pitching panic. After Francisco Liriano was stupidly taken in the second round, things seemed to calm down a little. Liriano was followed by Manny Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard. Normalcy had returned. A sense of “hey, there are not any pitchers of second round value here, but there sure are a lot of good hitters out there” entered the draft. And then Tony took Roy Owsalt two rounds too early and all hell broke loose. All of the mid-range guys immediately came off the board: Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez, John Lackey and Jon Lester. Everybody decided to take round five to regroup and figure out what pitchers were available and that started The Great Pitching Panic of ’09 when half a trillion pitchers were unjustifiably taken between rounds six and 10. I think the psyche of the draft was affected by the Oswalt pick. I think people still felt like there were some good mid-range guys who would be there in rounds five, six and seven that would balance everything else. Instead the likes of Adam Wainwright (what the hell was Keller thinking?), Kevin Slowey, Max Scherzer (another Allen pick), Joe Saunders, Gil Meche, David Price and Brett Myers were taken. What a disaster.

I like the Adrian Gonzalez pick at round six and, though I don’t think he is the same player as he used to be, I like the value Allen received in the fifth round for Vladimir Guerrero. I am not a fan of Nate McLouth repeating his 2008 season and probably would have gone a different direction in round four – maybe Bobby Abreu would have been a better pick there.

A.J. Burnett and Rich Harden are “Boom or Bust” candidates. I think Tony’s season will be defined by these two players health. Both are going to win games and strikeout a ton of people in they can stay healthy, which is a big “if”. Burnett does have issues with his control and Harden has been known to give up the long ball in addition to walking a lot of batters. Harden has only one season in his six major league seasons where he has surpassed 150 innings pitched. It is things like this that make me believe Allen’s bet will not pay off, but you never know.

Oh, and what the hell were you thinking drafting Max Scherzer in the ninth round?!?! Honestly, what were you thinking? Honestly, the guy was being picked in regular drafts in the 16th round amongst such gaudy names as Rick Ankiel, Mike Aviles and Pablo Sandoval. Really, what were you thinking? I’m not saying the kid won’t be good this season, but you took him insanely too early.

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
David Ortiz. In the first year of this league, I remember taking Barry Bonds in round 17ish a year removed from his leg injury. It paid off very nicely for me as he had a 1.045 OPS and nearly walked three times per every strikeout. Is was a big supplement to my outfield that helped me get to the championship game. I think David Ortiz can be that guy for Tony in round 17. J.D. Drew in round 25 is also very interesting assuming he has a full season.

Worst:
Max Scherzer. I still don’t get that pick. Really, I don’t get it, why did you do that? Please tell me.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Mike Napoli: Mike hit 20 home runs in 227 at-bats in an injury shortened season. At least you know the pop is there if he is on the field. Mike also had 70 strikeouts last season so that’s not good.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez: If Adrian played anywhere other than PetCo, he would have 40 homers a season and be one of the most salivated over fantasy players every year. Instead he just hits 30 homers with 100 RBI and 100 runs, so, naturally, he falls to round six. Question: Would you rather have Adrian Gonzalez or Adam Wainwright with your sixth round pick? Gonzalez or Robinson Cano? Gonzalez or Johnny Damon? Gonzalez or John Lackey or Jon Lester? Adam, you don’t get to vote.

2B – Dustin Pedroia: Well, that’s nice.

3B – Kevin Youkilis: It should be noted that Tony has four Red Sox and three Cardinals on his team.

SS – Hanley Ramirez: I think a legitiment argument could be made that Tony has the best infield of anybody in The League. I don’t know if this is true yet, but I’m leaning that way at the moment.

LF – Ryan Ludwick: Wow, talk about a talent drop off. Sheesh.

CF – Nate McLouth: As I’ve stated already, I do not believe McLouth will be the same player as he was last season. I really don’t.

RF – Jacoby Ellsbury: The guy is so good the Red Sox chose to start Coco Crisp over him in the playoffs. Keep that in mind.

UT – Vladimir Guerrero: 1998-2006 averages: 36 HR, 112 RBI, .327/.393/.590 – 151 OPS+
2007-2008 averages: 27 HR, 108 RBI, .314/.385/.535 – 140

I show this to note two things: One, Vlad is REALLY good and, two, Vlad is starting to lose his power, but is still really good. Just a note.

SP1 – Edinson Volquez: 1st Half: 117.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, .212 BAA, 5 HR allowed
2nd Half: 78.1 IP, 4.60 ERA, .260 BAA, 9 HR allowed

Oh, and would this be a bad time to mention he pitched 52 more innings than his previous career high and 162 more innings than his previous MLB high in what will be his fifth MLB season in 2009? No? Oh, I’m sorry.

SP2 – Roy Oswalt: Already discussed him.

SP3 – A.J. Burnett: Burnett has 10 major league seasons and has had 26 or more starts in only four of them. I wanted to make that note for injury purposes. Burnett also has only two seasons where he averaged less than 3.5 walks per nine innings. I wanted to make that point to show his control issues. Have I mentioned his home run issues yet?

FLEX – Rich Harden: He will spend more time on the DL than he does here.

RP – Frank Francisco: Assuming he doesn’t throw any chairs at any fans he should be above average for Tony, though he will not get many saves.

RP – Manny Corpas: Doesn’t strikeout nearly enough people to be relevant.

RP – Todd Wellemeyer: Ugh… What a terrible relief core.

General Thoughts:

Tony has an excellent infield, but his holes in the outfield, bullpen and starting rotation are going to be too much for him to overcome.

Sarcastic Statement:

Keeping Colby Rasmus and drafting two Cardinals – Ryan Ludwick and Todd Wellemeyer – are going to be looked upon as the three most important moves Tony made to build a winning fantasy team.

Final Statement

Normally I would say that with a few savvy moves you could put yourself in a good position to make the playoffs, but because this is Tony we are talking about… I doubt that happens.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Jeff Weseloh

2009-03-29T15:58:00.002-05:00

Team: Flying Monkeys
Owner: Jeff Weseloh
Draft Pick Order: 1st Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Albert Pujols (1)
2 – Aramis Ramirez (3)
3 – Carlos Beltran (3)
4 – Lance Berkman (Kept)
5 – Johnny Damon (6)
6 – Daisuke Matsuzaka (6)
7 – Garrett Atkins (6)
8 – Ian Kinsler (8)
9 – Erik Bedard (13)
10 – Aaron Harang (14)

Thoughts:

And you were doing so well until you got to rounds nine and ten...

I hate the Damon pick, but that is more of my opinion of him getting old, regressing and sucking that is influencing that.

The Bedard and Harang picks I take issue with. Aside from them being overvalued, neither of them pitch in situations that really make me feel good about them. Harang pitches in a sandbox that sees routine fly balls turn into 500 foot home runs. He saw a huge dip in his strikeouts last year and has pitched almost 900 innings in the last four seasons. There is a lot to not like about Harang without the whole ninth round status attached to him.

Bedard pitches for a terrible team, it’s as simple as that. He had injury issues last year and has never pitched over 200 innings in a season. Additionally, he really only has one good season in his career (2007) which happened to coincide with his one good strikeout season. Bedard would have made more sense as an overdraft in round 12, maybe 11.

I love the Beltran pick. It is striking to me how Beltran had the third highest fantasy point total last season, but everyone decided to let him slide to the third round. But, hey, at least Joel got Liriano three rounds too high!

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:

David DeJesus. Because at round 21, he is projected to score more points than Adam Keller’s catcher, first baseman, left fielder and right fielder (not combined) and is only three points short of his kept second baseman Dan Uggla. Normally this would be a compliment, but actually it is more of slam on Adam’s “stacked” fantasy team. (Boom! Roasted again!)

In all seriousness, I like the Chris Carpenter and Travis Snider picks. But I don’t have anything to say about them other than the obvious so I’m going to leave that there.

Worst:
I can’t decide between Johnny Damon, Erik Bedard or Aaron Harang… Let’s just go all three! But, hey, at least two-thirds of your outfield and half of your infield isn’t projected to score fewer fantasy points than someone else’s 21st round pick like someone else I know…

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – John Baker: My early thoughts are he sucks. Those will probably reflect my latter thoughts as well.

1B – Lance Berkman: You know, looking back on the draft, keeping Berkman for a 4th rounder seems stupid since you probably could have drafted him in the 20th round the way pitching was going. None the less you have a solid first baseman.

2B – Ian Kinsler: If he stays healthy and Utley does not, you have the number one second baseman in fantasy.

3B – Aramis Ramirez: One of the better third basemen in a shallow third base class.

SS – Michael Young: Young’s transition to third base gives me concern as to his fantasy value this season and in seasons to come.

LF – Johnny Damon: Already discussed my disgusting thoughts on him.

CF – Carlos Beltran: Him too.

RF – Jermaine Dye: He’s the wildcard for you this year. If he stays healthy and does not regress too much, he could be the key piece to put you over the top into the playoffs.

UT – Albert Pujols: I hate the Cardinals, but Pujols still holds the number spot in the greatest home runs I’ve ever seen live in person or on TV. That was insane.

SP1 – Zack Greinke: Worst case scenario he’s an above average guy for you. Best case: He wins the Cy Young.

SP2 – Daisuke Matsuzaka: Most overrated and overvalued fantasy pitcher in this league, period.

SP3 – Erik Bedard: Yeah…

FLEX – Justin Duchscherer: That’s not good either…

RP – Francisco Cordero: Well this is going downhill fast.

RP – Brandon Morrow: When your best reliever is a starter, that’s not good.

RP – Joel Hanrahan: Say “Hanrahan” five times fast. Not possible without saying "hand" at least twice. Note: I have no idea who this guy is.

General Thoughts:
This was not a bad draft. I don’t think it will win you the league, but I don’t think it will lose it for you either. Being in the Losers Division is going to help you.

Sarcastic Statement:

Adam most definitely has your team beat just with his stacked outfield alone.

Final Statement

Carlos Beltran would have been a better third round keeper than AROD had AROD dropped to the third round.

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Reviewed: Adam Keller

2009-03-28T16:23:00.003-05:00

Team: Viva El Birdos
Owner: Adam Keller
Draft Pick Order: 4th Overall

Top Ten Rounds Evaluation (ADP Round)*
1 – Jose Reyes (1)
2 – Alex Rodriguez (2)
3 – Felix Hernandez (5)
4 – Jimmy Rollins (Kept)
5 – Curtis Granderson (4)
6 – Adam Wainwright (8)
7 – Bobby Jenks (8)
8 – Hunter Pence (6)
9 – Carlos Zambrano (9)
10 – B.J. Ryan (9)

Thoughts:

I do not understand the Jose Reyes strategy from Adam when he already has Jimmy Rollins on his roster. I get the best player available idea, but I don’t know if that was the best thing for him to do for his team.** Drafting Reyes was essentially drafting a Utility player with your first pick. I think Adam would have been better served taking Miguel Cabrera or Grady Sizemore and having two top player at two positions as opposed having two top players at one position. I think depth in the lineup is important. Additionally, filling out an utility spot is going to be a lot easier than filling out holes in specific positions - like centerfield. Adam certainly has trade bait in Rollins or Reyes, but again, do really want to be drafting trade bait with the fourth overall pick in the draft?

**It should be noted that I did pick after Keller, and did plan on picking Reyes if he fell to me. But I am equally as happy with my actual pick, Grady Sizemore, as I would have been if I had taken Reyes. I say this in the interest of full disclosure and to make a note that my view of Adam’s pick is not out of anger for not having the opportunity to draft Reyes.

While ADP says he didn’t, I think Adam overvalued Alex Rodriguez. Alex will miss at least six weeks with his injury and will only max out at around 90% (so it has been claimed) for the rest of the season. And if the Yankees are out of it by the end of August, which could really be a possibility if the Rays and Red Sox play like they can, they may tell AROD to cut his season short and get the second surgery he’s going to require. I don’t know if that is a risk I take with my second round pick, even if it is AROD. Secondly, I think he has more value if he were to be taken in rounds three or four. I think he would have fallen at least to the end of round three had he been allowed and at that point would have been made keeper eligible. Picking him in round three or four would have made more sense.

If it is true, as I have heard through the grapevine, that he was drafted to prevent someone else from keeping him, Adam is a fool. Drafting based on keepers in the top three or four rounds is bad enough. Drafting based on PREVENTING people from keeping other players in the top three or four rounds is downright stupid. Someone keeping the likes of AROD does not dictate who does and does not win The Leauge. Ask Tony, who kept Johan Santana, Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols last season and finished in next to last place. There is more to winning this league than one great player. One should draft to win The League rather than try to prevent potential keepers or draft keepers. We play to win The League. WE PLAY TO WIN THE LEAGUE!

Felix Hernandez is way too inconsistent and his team too poor to be drafted in round three. He’s a great young prospect with lots of potential, but he doesn’t deserve third round status. I believe this to be a panic pick since Webb, Halladay, Liriano, Oswalt and Peavy were all off the board by this point. You can look at it as the market placing high value on pitchers if you want I suppose, but I think, in the case of a draft, it means there is excellent value in other places, like, you know, Alex Gordon…………………………

Best (and Worst) Mid to Late Round Picks

Best:
Vernon Wells. I think Wells is prime for a return to his normal self after terrible 2006 and 2007 campaigns. In 2006 he had the “Payday Hangover” season and in 2007 he had “Over-compensate for Last Year” syndrome that resulted in an injury shortened year. But he did get his power back and had as many RBI’s in 2007 as he did in 2006 in 200 fewer plate appearances. Adam got excellent value here.

Worst:
Adam Wainwright. Not only is Wainwright overrated, but he is extremely overvalued at round six. He has awful strikeout numbers, has injury issues and allows too many base runners and home runs. His 11-3 record last year was more indicative of his division than it was of his talent. I don’t see Wainwright producing at a level in 2009 that would warrant a sixth round selection.

Starting Positional Breakdown

C – Victor Martinez: Take away a players legs and you’ve seriously damaged that players ceiling. Knee injuries are something that are difficult to overcome if one wants to return to their true self. When you add the wear and tear of the catching position, I believe it to be very difficult that Martinez returns to what he used to be. Assuming a healthy season, I think Martinez is a mid-level catcher.

1B – Chris Duncan/Adam LaRoche: Awful and may possibly the worst first base tandem in all of fantasy this year. And when you consider how deep first base was/is this year, it makes it even harder to believe Adam couldn’t find someone better than these two guys.

2B – Dan Uggla: As stated in his keeper review, Uggla is probably a bottom-half second baseman because of his strikeouts. Unless an act of God takes place, I do not see his strikeout problem being fixed. And with Hanley Ramirez batting third this season, I see Uggla’s production taking a dip as well.

3B – Aubrey Huff: Yet another bad infielder. Adam will site last season and I’ll site the three year trend Huff had going into last season and Huff’s age. Oh, and that Huff sucks.

SS – Jimmy Rollins: Finally, someone good.

LF – Xavier Nady: Aaand back to the sucking. Xavier Nady: Great role player, terrible fantasy starter. If he was a glue piece in Adam’s fantasy team, maybe I could live with it. But as we are seeing, this is not the case.

CF – Curtis Granderson: If Granderson hits his ESPN projection – a projection that is lofty in my opinion – he will finish as the eighth best eligible centerfielder in a ten team league. Not positive. Good thing he didn’t draft Grady Sizemore…

RF – Hunter Pence: Curtis Granderson, the aforementioned eighth best centerfielder in a ten team league, is projected to have 120 more fantasy points than Pence. You can connect the dots on that one. But in case you don’t have the time, those dots when connected spell S-U-C-K-S-A-T-F-A-N-T-A-S-Y. But, hey, at least Pence is projected to get 30 more points than Xavier Nady – at least you don’t have Nady starting for you too, that would suck.

I’m starting to wish I wrote this drunk, this is getting depressing…

UT – Jose Reyes: Hey a second guy who is actually good in fantasy! Yipee!

SP1 – Dan Haren: Second tier guy. Which isn’t a bad thing.

SP2 – Ricky Nolasco: Will be on the DL before July.

SP3 – Felix Hernandez: Will have three great starts to get you pumped and then be mediocre and suffer minor injuries for the rest of the season with little teases in between to keep you honest. You can take that to the bank.

FLEX – Adam Wainwright: Is this a joke? Seriously, did you take this guy just to mock Kimball for taking Joe Saunders in the ninth round? Oh, wait, Wainwright went in the sixth round. So was Kimball mocking you then? Honestly… what were you thinking? You’d rather have him over Raul Ibanez right now? Really?

RP – Bobby Jenks: This horror story doesn’t end, does it? I’ll give you this, at least he’s not J.J. Putz.

RP – B.J. Ryan: Good thing this guy doesn’t have major health issues, otherwise this would be a concern area for you...

RP – Chris Ray: Oh God… Where do you find these guys?

General Thoughts:

While the flashes of Adam’s team look nice (Rollins, Reyes, AROD, Haren, King Felix), the complete team is little more than uninspiring at best.

Sarcastic Statement:

Well, you can go ahead and pencil Adam in for an easy playoff bid. What a draft!

Final Statement

Boom! Roasted!

*Average Draft Position by Round via ESPN’s Live and Mock Drafts as of March 14, adjusted for keepers.

Kept: The Kyle Morris Story

2009-03-27T01:04:00.000-05:00

Kept Players
Magglio Ordonez (Round 16)
Ervin Santana (Round 24)
Jason Bay (Round 18)
Joakim Soria (Round 17)
Alfonso Soriano (Round 5)

Last Year’s Record: 13-11
Division: Losers
Season Result: Finished third in the Losers Division.

Keeper Decision Scale: 3.5/10

Kyle is a Mizzou fan, yet somehow I gave him a higher rating than “negative infinity.” I’m clearly a Christian. On with more good things…

The Good:

You’ve gotta love the Mexicutioner selection. It will reap many rewards for Kyle. He got him in a trade for me for Justin Upton and James Loney, I believe. Loney was a key in me landing Josh Hamilton and I don’t believe I would have kept Soria, but I might have kept him over Carlos Quentin. In any case, Kyle has him and made a good decision here.

Ervin Santana had a good season last year…

Jason Bay Is excellent value at round 18 and gives him excellent flexibility in the draft.

I’m not a fan of keeping Alfonso Soriano at round five, but he does produce at a high level and is in a strong lineup in a weak division.

Kyle has a man crush on Magglio, so I’ll be careful to not criticize him too much.

The Bad:

I take that back, the Magglio decision was a poor one. Magglio, with the exception of his 2007 season, has not been the same since his surgery and subsequent move to spacious Detroit. He’ll be 36 this season, with bad legs, in a big ball park, playing every day in said big ball park. This is not a good situation.

Ervin Santana is on the DL.

Alfonso Soriano will be “33” this season and has had injury issues in back to back years. Best case scenario, he sees a strong drop in his stolen bases and a little bit of a drop in his power. Worst case scenario, and this is the Cubs we’re talking about, Soriano will lose his speed and his power and will only play for half the season. Either way, his production is going to decrease to a point not worthy of a fifth round pick. I think there were better options for Kyle than keeping Soriano.

Jason Bay is an excellent player, but I do wonder if the poor ALCS and full season of the Boston Media Machine will have negative effects on him.

I have nothing poor to say about the Mexicutioner.

Kept: The Adam Keller Story

2009-03-26T00:43:00.000-05:00

Kept Players
Jimmy Rollins (Round 4)
Dan Haren (Round 11)
Dan Uggla (Round 17)
Aubrey Huff (Round 25)
Ricky Nolasco (Round 14)

Last Year’s Record: 9-15
Division: Losers
Season Result: Finished fourth in the Losers Division.

Keeper Decision Scale: 6.5/10

I give Adam a pass for his first year in The League, but he’s not going to get one for his crappy keeper selections… or is he? But first, the good.

The Good:

I cannot argue with taking the first round talent in the fourth round. I’m all for that. I do question ESPN’s projections for him, but that is neither here nor there.

Dan Uggla strikes out a LOT. But I suppose if you want to make sure you get a top five second basemen for a 17th round pick, you can’t go too wrong. I don’t know if I would have kept him, but looking at Adam’s roster, I don’t think there were many other options.

Dan Haren was kept at excellent value. Though I do not think he will repeat last season’s performance, I do think he’s going to get better production out of him than a pitcher he may draft in the eleventh round.

I hate the Aubrey Huff decision, but the positive in that is I have been known to be wrong on occasion.

Ricky Nolasco was an interesting keeper decision. Florida will be down a bit this year, which means they should make the World Series.

The Bad:

Nolasco pitched 212 innings last season, the first time he has done so in his career. It was also the first time he had pitched more than 165 innings in a season. Do the math where I’m going with this.

Aubrey Huff sucks. From 2005 to 2007, Huff had a .778 OPS with declining power each season; given Huff is moving away from his prime (he’ll be 32 this year), assumed regression from what was almost a career year, and Weiters eventual entrance to the lineup, I think it is safe to say he won’t be as good in 2009. Even if he is close to last year’s numbers, he was still only a middle of the road option. I don’t think you keep Huff ahead of some of his other options he had on the table (ie Brian Fuentes or Raul Ibanez – neither of whom, on first and second glance, were drafted last season).

Dan Uggla strikes out a WHOLE lot. So much so that his 77 walks were not enough fantasy points to break even with his strikeouts. Additionally, Uggla was only the 8th best (in a 10 team league I may add) second base eligible player. To put it another way, he only had three more points than Jose Lopez last season. Why not keep the new Angles closer, who you know is going to get a host of saves, for a 15th rounder and take Lopez late in the draft. It seems like a better move to me given the sleeper label that is on Lopez this year.

I cannot knock the Haren and Rollins choices. I think having Rollins in the fourth round alone makes this a better keeper class than some we have discussed.

2009 Overall Draft Review

2009-03-23T21:41:00.001-05:00

Starting later this week I’ll begin with the individual reviews of everyone’s draft. But I wanted to begin with a brief general overview of the draft along with a few comments about a few specific situations and people who shaped this year’s draft.

***

This year’s draft is why I do not like the ESPN live draft system. Raul Ibanez doesn’t fall into the late rounds if we are using ESPN. Alex Gordon doesn’t go in the third round if we had used the ESPN system.* There is an element of the unknown that you get by doing the draft live on AIM or in someone’s living room; when we are all using a different list to draft from, with different philosophies and different strategies. ESPN, I think, can make one lazy and let the “system” dictate how they draft. A setting like the one we have doesn’t easily allow for that, thus making the draft far more unpredictable and interesting.

*I think. And on a side note: Gnarls Barkley looks a lot like a cross between Barry Bonds and Emmitt Smith. I felt you should know this.

With that, this draft sucked. What the hell were you guys thinking?

***

You’ll find throughout the draft reviews that I will be referring to the ESPN Average Draft Positions that I printed off on March 14, the day before the draft. Those positions were dictated by ESPN’s mock and live draft results in the week leading up to our draft (so it included AROD’s injury). What I did was eliminate all of the players who were kept from the list and reorganized the list to better reflect what players should be taken in what rounds in our draft. I did this for myself to help determine value. Little did I know it would be used to help me become more aware of how stupid some of the pitching selections were. Unbelievable.

***

The top ten rounds were divided into three pitching phases. Phase One: Crazy pitching selections. Phase Two: Crap, we have to draft hitters too. Phase Three: Screw it, I’m just drafting pitchers.

Phase One

Phase one consisted of “what the hell” picks. There were 10 pitchers selected in the first four rounds, six of which were drafted too high. Here are the six from worst to last:

Round – Player – ADR
2 – Francisco Liriano – 5
4 – Jon Lester – 7
3 – Felix Hernandez – 5
2 – Roy Oswalt – 3
3 – John Lackey – 4
4 – James Shields – 5

Without going into detail, it was clearly stupid to draft Liriano and Lester where they were taken. Not so much because they are crap players, but because how much value those players lost being selected where they were.

For example, drafting Francisco Liriano in the fifth round (where he had been going at the time) made more sense because of his clear high-ceiling, but question marks as to if he would reach that ceiling this season due to his previous injuries. So, if he reaches his ceiling, you’re getting a second production from a fifth round pick. If he’s average by his standards, you’re getting what you should out of a fifth or six round pick. Drafting him in the second round demands that he produce at his ceiling now, which seems unlikely this season. And even if he does reach his ceiling, you’re getting what you ought to get out of a second round pick, which means you’re getting what you paid for. This all but eliminates Liriano’s value. Imagine if one had selected Jake Peavy there (a small reach) and waited to take Liriano in the fifth round. That would be a far more stout combination at much better value. And if you didn’t get Liriano, you’d still have Peavy and a boat load of excellent hitters still available to round out your lineup.

It was picks like this that really screwed up a lot of people’s draft. I’m sure if you ask some of these individuals about their draft, I’m sure they’d say it was excellent because they got superstar A, B and C to go along with hot prospects D and E. The problem they fail to see is what they had to pay to get those players and what the quality of players F through Y are. So what if you have Albert Pujols and CC Sabathia if the rest of your line up is a bunch of Tony Pena Jr.’s and the rest of your rotation is handful of Brett Tomko’s.
Three players are not going to win a league, because every team is going to have three or so great players on it; it’s a bunch of consistent quality players. Need an example, ask Tony. He started the season with Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes and Johan Santana on his team as keepers and finished the season with the second worst record in the league. Again, it’s not about having a few great players, it’s about having a great team.

Phase Two

Round five was the round where everyone suddenly realized they had to fill out their line up. Only one person picked a pitcher (me, of course…) and it was a reliever.

What was surprising to me was how many terrible picks were made in that round. Here is the recap:

Weseloh – Johnny Damon
Allen – Vladimir Guerrero
Willey – Joe Mauer
Keller – Curtis Granderson
Nielsen – Joe Nathan
Morris – Alfonso Soriano (Keeper)
Schilb – Matt Holliday (Keeper)
Kimball – Robinson Cano
Johnson – Chipper Jones
Wessley – Bobby Abreu

The amount of guys taken on the downward side of their career selected in this round were incredible: Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Chipper Jones and Bobby Abreu. It would have been a fantastic round to take guys like Francisco Liriano and Felix Hernandez, but of course they were gone three rounds earlier for no real reason…

Robinson Cano is a guy who had a .715 OPS last season with a .305 OBP and has seen a drop in his OPS in three straight seasons. Add in the AROD-less lineup and an outfield that features Xavier Nady, aging stars Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon and the black hole that has become Jorge Posada and things don’t look so good for a Robinson Cano comeback.

Curtis Granderson has high upside, but is overvalued at round five.

Phase Three

Twenty-seven pitchers were taken between rounds six and 10, which doesn’t sound too insane at first glance. But when you think about how many pitchers were over-drafted in the first five rounds and all of the pitchers that were kept, then you start to think, “Who the hell was left of value as a pitcher to warrant 27 pitchers be taken?”

Here are some other fun stats:

Nine of the 10 picks in the 9th round were pitchers.

At least four pitchers were taken in rounds six through 10 (that’s insane, I promise).

Seven of the 27 pitchers taken were taken below value (taken later than expected). Of those seven, five were closers.

Fourteen of the 27 pitchers were taken at least TWO rounds too high, based on ESPN’s ADP.

Six of the nine 9th round picks were drafted two rounds too high. Four were taken at least three rounds too high. Three were taken at least four rounds too high. Two were taken five rounds too high. One was taken six rounds too high.

ESPN had 200 players listed on its ADP. J.J. Putz, drafted in the 10th round of our draft, was not on that list. A couple of picks later, B.J. Ryan was taken one round below where he was projected to go.

In a regular draft, David Price was going, on average, around round 18. Adjusted for our draft, that would put him around round 16. Instead, he was taken in round 10.

In other news: Raul Ibanez was taken in round 17; Jim Thome was drafted in round 19; Fausto Carmona, Billy Butler and J.J. Hardy were taken in round 20; David DeJesus was taken in round 21; John Smoltz went in round 24; J.D. Drew and Kelvim Escobar went in round 25.

Kept: The Tony Allen Story

2009-03-22T13:48:00.000-05:00

Kept Players
Jacoby Ellsbury (Round 15)
Colby Rasmus (Round 23)
Ryan Ludwick (Round 14)
Edinson Volquez (Round 24)
Dustin Pedroia (Round 12)

Last Year’s Record: 6-18
Division: Winners
Season Result: Last place in the Winners division. He generally sucked.

Keeper Decision Scale: 2/10

Leave it to Tony to go heavy on the crappy players. Well done. This isn’t to say there is nothing good about the players he kept, so we’ll start with the good and work our way to reality.

The Good:
Colby Rasmus has loads of potential, although he is suffering a bit from prospect fatigue in some eyes. With a perceived deep outfield, finding a spot for him may be difficult, but Rasmus is going to get any edge in a position battle given his upside.

Jacoby Ellsbury is a speedy guy who plays a team that scores many runs, this cannot be a completely bad thing.

Edinson Volquez had excellent strikeout numbers last season and to go along with a very strong first half of the season.

Dustin Pedroia = 2008 MVP.

Ryan Ludwick surprised everyone with his bat last season and looks to carry it over into 2009.

The Bad:
Ryan Ludwick sucks. He had one good, career year and that will be all for him. A bust at round 14.

Jacoby Ellsbury is highly overrated in my mind. His status as the Red Sox centerfielder carries great hype with it, which makes it seem like he is a better player than what he is. A full season without Manny in the lineup will also hurt him in the long run. Retaining his stolen bases is a nice thing, however.

Edinson Volquez pitched 33 innings in 2006 and 34 innings in 2007. He pitched 196 last season. Do the math with where you think I’m going with this.

Colby Rasmus has not played one major league season, nor has he even had one major league at-bat. Expecting high returns this season is questionable. Rasmus may max out his keeper options with Tony before he ever becomes the play some think he may become.

Dustin Pedroia is a nice player who produces a lot of runs. I feel like a better fantasy guy could be taken at round 12 in a more premium position. But I don’t think this is a terrible decision either.

Carlos Marmol should have been kept for a 21st rounder over someone like Ludwick. Marmol is the default closer for Cubs and had an excellent chance of being a low-risk/high-reward guy for Tony.

Overall, it could have been worse, but I think Tony have very little upside with his keeper selections.

Kept: The Joel Schilb Story

2009-03-20T14:39:00.000-05:00

Kept Players
Matt Holliday (Round 5)
Ryan Dempster (Round 15)
Jhonny Peralta (Round 23)
Geovany Soto (Round 11)
Alexei Ramirez (Round 14)

Last Year’s Record: 15-9
Division: Losers
Season Result: Second place in the Loser division and Wild Card winner.

Keeper Decision Scale: 7.2/10

I oddly feel decent about Joel’s selections with on semi-major exception. So let’s get on with the good, before I semi-rip Joel for not taking risks.

The Good:
Matt Holliday is a good hitter. I don’t care that he is not in Colorado anymore, I still think he is a 100/30/100 guy who will put up a lot of points for Joel.

Ryan Dempster had an oddly good season last year and maintained it for the whole year. It is worth the risk to keep him at 15.

Jhonny Peralta is a third-tier shortstop with the potential to be a second-tier guy. The upside makes him way more than worth it at round 23.

Geovany Soto is a top three fantasy catcher and he’ll have him for a mere 11th round pick.

Alexei Ramirez will be moved to shortstop this season which makes him valuable as a guy who can play both middle infield spots in fantasy. I don’t see his numbers improving that much, but as a utility guy, he will be very useful.

The Bad:

Fantasy is all about risk taking and I think Joel completely missed out on the opportunity to have an explosive season from Nick Markakis. Yes, a third round pick is a valuable pick, but I think Markakis is more than worth the pick given what he could do this season. He could easily be a 100/30/100 guy and maybe more with the continued improvement of Adam Jones and the early season arrival of Matt Wieters. Markakis is going to have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs with Brian Roberts and Jones hitting in front of him. Wieters will provide solid protection behind him if he hits merely half as well as he is hitting in the minors.

Additionally, Joel would have had the chance to have a corner outfield of Markakis and Holliday, something maybe only the Inoculators could match (Ryan Braun and Josh Hamilton). It would have been risky, but I think it would have been worthwhile.

Overall, I think Joel got good value for his keepers and has a good start to his 2009 campaign.

Kept: The Jeff Weseloh Story

2009-03-19T08:57:00.000-05:00

Kept Players
Lance Berkman (Round 4)
Ian Kinsler (Round 8)
Zack Greinke (Round 13)
Adam Jones (Round 25)
Jermaine Dye (Round 22)

Last Year’s Record: n/a
Division: n/a
Season Result: This is his first year in The League.

Keeper Decision Scale: 7.9/10

Jeff Weseloh is going to try to do what he does in fantasy football: Draft really well, trade everybody away and suck for the rest of the season. To the good!!!!!!!!

The Good:
Lance Berkman had a great season last year and has excellent power.

Ian Kinsler, when healthy, is the best offensive middle infielder in the American League and is the second best offensive second baseman in baseball.

Zack Greinke looks primed to build on his excellent season from 2008 an turn into a Cy Young contender.

I like Adam Jones simply because I saw him almost hit for the cycle at Yankee Stadium last summer in a blowout of the Yanks.

Jermaine Dye is good for a lot of home runs and RBI which is not a bad thing in fantasy.

The Bad:

Lance Berkman is not going to match what he did last season. He is exiting his prime, has seen his home runs drop in three consecutive seasons and plays on a team that is lacking offensive protection. He’s not a bad fantasy player, but not worth the fourth round commitment.

Jermaine Dye is similar to Berkman, except he has a little more around him. Dye is also more injury prone and is worthless when he is not hitting home runs.

Adam Jones has excellent value at round 25, so his it is not too much of a killer to deal with his less than exciting power/speed numbers. However, at 23, there is a lot of upside.

Ian Kinsler has shown a knack for getting hurt, which is always going to be an issue. His eighth round tag only adds to the importance that he stays healthy for most of the season.

Overall, Jeff has a very nice foundation for his 2009 team. Health is always going to be a concern, but there is a special emphasis on it with his selections given the history of all five guys he has selected.

Kept: The Jeff Kimball Story

2009-03-18T18:51:00.001-05:00

Kept Players
Jonathan Papelbon (Round 14)
Shane Victorino (Round 16)
Scott Baker (Round 24)
Cliff Lee (Round 25)
Josh Johnson (Round 15)

Last Year’s Record: 16-8
Division: Winners
Season Result: Second place in Winners Division and clenched a Wild Card berth.

Keeper Decision Scale: 5.3/10

Kimball’s pitching heavy keeper decisions may prevent him from making the playoffs in the highly competitive Winners division. But then again, he’s Kimball, so who knows. But let’s start with where I agree with Kimball.

The Good:
Clearly, keeping Cliff Lee as a 25th round pick is a good decision. Even if Lee regresses (which he will), it will be difficult for him to regress to a point where he wouldn’t be worth the 25th round flyer. And if he puts together another Cy Young caliber year, he will have cemented his position as being the most valuable keeper in this draft. Yes, even more valuable than CC Sabathia.

In the 16th round, Shane Victorino is another nice value pick. Given the lineup he hits in and the value of stolen bases in our league, a healthy Victorino can only out-produce his draft status.

ESPN has Jonathan Papelbon as the top closer in fantasy baseball this season. So getting him in the 14th round is a nice deal for Kimball.

The Bad:
Kimball kept too much pitching. This is more of a philosophical difference than it is a terrible decision on Kimball’s part.

In my mind, pitching is one of the hardest things in baseball to project. There are only a select few pitchers one can say will have a dominating season, and those few should be the ones who ought to be kept.

As I stated above, the decisions to keep Lee and Papelbon made sense given their value and their previous high level of success.

Kept: The Jason Willey Story

2009-03-17T08:21:00.000-05:00

Kept Players
Johnny Cueto (Round 21)
Brad Lidge (Round 12)
Andre Ethier (Round 24)
Clayton Kershaw (Round 25)
Jay Bruce (Round 18)

Last Year’s Record: 7-17
Division: Winners
Season Result: He sucked it up big time.

Keeper Decision Scale: 5.1/10

Leave it to Jason to have the most perplexing set of keepers that kind of make sense, but at the same time want to make you punch him in the face for being so stupid. But before we get to the punching Jason out, here’s what Jason got right.

The Good:
Jason gets excellent values for what is expected to be two excellent young players in Jay Bruce and Clayton Kershaw. Each should have a better feel for the majors after their first full season in the big leagues.

Brad Lidge, three years later, finally recovered from being Pujolsed in the 2005 NLCS. The 12th round may be a little high, but we may not be feeling that way six months from now if Lidge stays healthy and builds on last season’s success.

Johnny Cueto has some decent strikeout numbers last season and is a good low-risk/high-reward guy at round 21.

The good news is Andre Ethier will be hitting somewhere close to Manny Ramirez in the Dodger lineup.

The Bad:
The bad news is that Andre Ethier will be in the same clubhouse as Manny Ramirez.

Johnny Cueto plays in Cincinnati, which is like saying he plays for the Rockies of the East. While his strikeout numbers are not bad, they are going to have to get much better if he is going to survive in that ballpark and be a viable fantasy option.

Brad Lidge got Pujolsed. Do you truly ever get over that?

After Jay Bruce decided to go all Roy Hobbs in his first 10 games as a big leaguer (.432/.533/.757 – that’s a 1.290 OPS! – 3 HR, 7 RBI, 12 runs, 7 BB, 3 K in 45 PA), he finished the final 98 games looking more like Tony Pena Jr. on steroids (.237/.290/.423 – a not so impressive .713 OPS – 18 HR, 45 RBI, 107 K, 26 BB in 407 PA). Clearly, at least for Jason’s sake, Bruce is not as bad as ‘roided up Tony Pena Jr., or as good as Roy Hobbs. Where Bruce falls on that spectrum will be interesting to see now that we have an idea where his ceiling and basements are. Jason better hope Bruce has a nice living room and he spends most of his time there instead of his basement.

Clayton Kershaw is going to be good, it is just a matter of when. That uncertainty may hinder Kershaw’s value to Jason. Kershaw will just be 21 this season and it is reasonable to say that Kershaw won’t start to meet his full potential until after he has maxed out his keeper options with Jason. If Kershaw is going to speed that process up, he is going to have to get better command of his pitches. Kershaw walked 52 batters in 107 innings last season. Better command could result in a better ERA this season. Jason needs the walks to turn into strikeouts.

Overall, I hate the Cueto pick, think Bruce is a bit overrated, and think Kershaw is two years away from truly seeing his major league potential. I also think you don’t every completely get over from being Pujolsed and I’m not the biggest Ethier fan as a fantasy option. However, all five of these guys have very high ceilings, which could pay off very nicely for Jason is two or three of them could reach it.

Kept: The Erik Johnson Story

2009-03-16T08:31:00.001-05:00

Kept Players
Tim Lincecum (Round 14)
Cole Hamels (Round 20)
Chad Billingsley (Round 8)
Josh Beckett (Round 15)
Prince Fielder (Round 13)

Last Year’s Record: 18-6
Division: Winners
Season Result: Division Winner and The League Runner-up

Keeper Decision Scale: 7.5/10

After the last two seasons, it would be hard to criticize Erik’s risk taking on young pitchers. But because I’m writing this post, you know I’ll find something. Before we get to that, here is what Erik did right.

The Good:
Unlike Andrew, Erik took advantage of his strength and what made his team good last season: His young starting pitching. The four-headed monster that is Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley will be tough for any team to match. Erik is going to feel quite nicely about have four to eight starts a week from those four guys. All four pitchers strikeout batters at a very high rate and all produce a lot of quality innings, which should play well to this year’s scoring system.

Prince Fielder provides something Erik has lacked the last two seasons: A solid fantasy bat. Last year, Erik depended mostly on the production from Adam Dunn, who while he hits a ton of home runs and drawls 100 walks, also strikes out 200 times and has another 200 production-less fantasy at-bats. Fielder is a more consistent player, who does not strike out at the same rate and has more productive at-bats. Having his rotation set should help Erik figure out his offensive woes early in the draft.

The Bad:
Injuries, injuries, injuries.

The is a growing thought processes, and evidence to go with it, that suggest that the farther a young pitcher goes over his previous career high in innings pitched, the more likely he is to get hurt the following season. The magic number is about 20 innings. The farther away you get from 20 innings, the higher injury risk you are placing on said pitcher.

An example would Fausto Carmona. Carmona threw 75 innings his rookie year in 2006 and followed that up by pitching 215 innings in 2007. Needless to say, injuries were an issue last season.

Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels and Chad Billingsley are all dangerously flirting with this injury theory.

Lincecum pitched 81 more innings (227 IP) in 2008 than he did in 2007 (146). He only pitched 63 total innings in his two years in the minors, but did throw significantly more innings in college. Include his already violent pitching motion and the general theory of “20” and Lincecum could be, at least, looking at a 2008 Justin Verlander-type season.

Cole Hamels also has had a lot of mileage on him in his first three season. Last season alone he threw 262 innings when his postseason innings are included. In the last two years, he’s thrown a total of 461 innings. This is a large workload for a guy who is just turning 25. Hamels would be a prime candidate for a 2008 JV season, if not an injury plagued one.

Chad Billingsley surpassed his career high by 40 innings last year. In 2006 he pitch 161 innings, 20 more than his previous high, between AAA and the majors and threw 147 the next season in an injury plagued year. In 2008 he threw 200 innings. I’d expect a trip to the disabled list for Billingsley this season.

We all know about Josh Beckett’s injury issues.

Prince Fielder may be a concern if the Brewers get to far out of the race by the end of July. Fielder has already expressed his dislike for the Brewers and may not feel the need to try very hard if the Brewers have nothing to play for. Fielder has also been a slow starter in his first two years in the bigs.

Assuming health, Erik has one of the best pitching situations in The League. If he can add one or two more high end arms in the draft, he will be looking very nice in his quest for a third-straight title game appearance.

2009 Draft

2009-03-15T17:42:00.000-05:00

Round One
Weseloh –Albert Pujols
Allen – Hanley Ramirez
Willey – David Wright
Keller – Jose Reyes
Nielsen – Grady Sizemore
Morris – Mark Teixiera
Schilb – Johan Santana
Kimball – Justin Morneau
Johnson – Chase Utley
Wessley – Miguel Cabrera

Round Two
Wessley – Carlos Lee
Johnson – Brandon Webb
Kimball – Roy Halladay
Schilb – Francisco Liriano
Morris – Manny Ramirez
Nielsen – Nick Markakis
Keller – Alex Rodriguez
Willey – Ryan Howard
Allen – Roy Oswalt
Weseloh – Aramis Ramirez

Round Three
Weseloh – Carlos Beltran
Allen – Kevin Youkilis
Willey – Jake Peavy
Keller – Felix Hernandez
Nielsen – Brian Roberts
Morris – John Lackey
Schilb – Derrek Lee
Kimball – Alex Gordon
Johnson – Ichiro
Wessley – Brandon Philips

Round Four
Wessley – Carl Crawford
Johnson – Jon Lester
Kimball – Alex Rios
Schilb – James Shields
Morris – B.J. Upton
Nielsen – Brian McCann
Keller – Jimmy Rollins (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Matt Kemp
Allen – Nate McLouth
Weseloh – Lance Berkman (Keeper, First Time)

Round Five
Weseloh – Johnny Damon
Allen – Vladimir Guerrero
Willey – Joe Mauer
Keller – Curtis Granderson
Nielsen – Joe Nathan
Morris – Alfonso Soriano (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Matt Holliday (Keeper, Second Time)
Kimball – Robinson Cano
Johnson – Chipper Jones
Wessley – Bobby Abreu

Round Six
Wessley – Francisco Rodriguez
Johnson – Yovani Gallardo
Kimball – Joey Votto
Schilb – Chris Davis
Morris – Rafeal Furcal
Nielsen – Mariano Rivera
Keller – Adam Wainwright
Willey – Derek Jeter
Allen – Adrian Gonzalez
Weseloh – Daisuke Matsuzaka

Round Seven
Weseloh – Garrett Atkins
Allen – Rich Harden
Willey – Kevin Slowey
Keller – Bobby Jenks
Nielsen – Carlos Pena
Morris – Scott Kazmir
Schilb – Corey Hart
Kimball – John Danks
Johnson – Connor Jackson
Wessley – Torii Hunter

Round Eight
Wessley – Derek Lowe
Johnson – Chad Billingsley (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Yunel Escobar
Schilb – Carlos Marmol
Morris – Matt Cain
Nielsen – Troy Tulowitzki
Keller – Hunter Pence
Willey – Justin Verlander
Allen – A.J. Burnett
Weseloh – Ian Kinsler (Keeper, First Time)

Round Nine
Weseloh – Erik Bedard
Allen – Max Scherzer
Willey – Brian Fuentes
Keller – Carlos Zambrano
Nielsen – Jose Valverde
Morris – Matt Garza
Schilb – Javier Vasquez
Kimball – Joe Saunders
Johnson – Lastings Milledge
Wessley – Gil Meche

Round Ten
Wessley – Russell Martin (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – David Price
Kimball – J.J. Putz
Schilb – Milton Bradley
Morris – Adrian Beltre
Nielsen – Brett Myers
Keller – B.J. Ryan
Willey – Mark DeRosa
Allen – Chone Figgins
Weseloh – Aaron Harang

Round Eleven
Weseloh – Justin Duchscherer
Allen – Chien-Meng Wang
Willey – Matt Capps
Keller – Dan Haren (Keeper, Second Time)
Nielsen – Mark Buehrle
Morris – Mike Aviles
Schilb – Geovany Soto (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Ted Lilly
Johnson – Kerry Wood
Wessley – Ryan Zimmerman

Round Twelve
Wessley – Brian Wilson
Johnson – Joey Devine
Kimball – Mike Gonzalez
Schilb – Chris Young ARI OF
Morris – Ryan Doumit
Nielsen – Olivar Perez
Keller – Victor Martinez
Willey – Brad Lidge (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Dustin Pedroia (Keeper, First Time)
Weseloh – Francisco Cordero

Round Thirteen
Weseloh – Zack Greinke (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Ryan Ludwick (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Adam Dunn
Keller – Xavier Nady
Nielsen – Jair Jurrjens
Morris – Heath Bell
Schilb – George Sherrill
Kimball – Pat Burrell
Johnson – Prince Fielder (Keeper, First Time)
Wessley – Jered Weaver

Round Fourteen
Wessley – CC Sabathia (Keeper, Second Time)
Johnson – Tim Lincecum (Keeper, Second Time)
Kimball – Jonathan Papelbon (Keeper, Second Time)
Schilb – Alexei Ramierez (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Matt Wieters
Nielsen – Ryan Braun (Keeper, Second Time)
Keller – Ricky Nolasco (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Justin Upton
Allen – Edinson Volquez (Keeper, First Time)
Weseloh – Brandon Morrow

Round Fifteen
Weseloh – Jose Lopez
Allen – Jacoby Ellseburry (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Trevor Hoffman
Keller – Vernon Wells
Nielsen – Carlos Quentin (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Matt Lindstrom
Schilb – Ryan Dempster (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Josh Johnson (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – Josh Beckett (Keeper, First Time)
Wessley – Jonathan Broxton (Keeper, First Time)

Round Sixteen
Wessley – Jason Werth
Johnson – Ubaldo Jimenez
Kimball – Shane Victorino (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Manny Parra
Morris – Magglio Ordonez (Keeper, Second Time)
Nielsen – Andy Sonnanstine
Keller – Jeremy Guthrie
Willey – Hank Blalock
Allen – Mike Napoli
Weseloh – Brad Hawpe

Round Seventeen
Weseloh – Michael Young
Allen – David Ortiz
Willey – Howie Kendrick
Keller – Dan Uggla (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – Josh Hamilton (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Joakim Soria (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Huston Street
Kimball – Scott Shields
Johnson – Raul Ibanez
Wessley – John Maine

Round Eighteen
Wessley – Jorge Cantu
Johnson – Sean Gallagher
Kimball – Bengie Molina
Schilb – Armando Galarraga
Morris – Jason Bay (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – Evan Longoria (Keeper, First Time)
Keller – Chris Young SD P
Willey – Jay Bruce (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Frank Fransisco
Weseloh – Joel Hanrahan

Round Nineteen
Weseloh – Chris Carpenter
Allen – Hiroki Kuroda
Willey – Jim Thome
Keller – Mike Cameron
Nielsen – Joba Chamberlain (Keeper, First Time)
Morris – Nelson Cruz
Schilb – Kelly Shoppach
Kimball – David Murphy
Johnson – Orlando Cabrera
Wessley – Randy Johnson

Round Twenty
Wessley – Cameron Maybin
Johnson – Cole Hamels (Keeper, Second Time)
Kimball – Mike Pelfrey
Schilb – Brad Ziegler
Morris – Fausto Carmona
Nielsen – Billy Butler
Keller – Kyle Lohse
Willey – Brad Penny
Allen – J.J. Hardy
Weseloh – Jeremy Bonderman

Round Twenty-One
Weseloh – David DeJesus
Allen – Manny Corpas
Willey – Johnny Cueto (Keeper, Second Time)
Keller – Jose Guillen
Nielsen – Elvis Andrus
Morris – Shin-Soo Choo
Schilb – Jonathan Sanchez
Kimball – Ryan Theriot
Johnson – Chris Iannetta
Wessley – Gavin Floyd

Round Twenty-Two
Wessley – Placido Polanco
Johnson – Chad Qualls
Kimball – Ian Stewart
Schilb – Miguel Tejada
Morris – Andy Pettitte
Nielsen – Clay Buchholz
Keller – Bronson Arroyo
Willey – Luke Scott
Allen – Jeff Francoeur
Weseloh – Jermaine Dye (Keeper, First Time)

Round Twenty-Three
Weseloh – John Baker
Allen – Colby Rasmus (Keeper, First Time)
Willey – Pablo Sandoval
Keller – Adam LaRoche
Nielsen – Matt LaPorta
Morris – Chris Volstad
Schilb – Jhonny Peralta (Keeper, First Time)
Kimball – Jorge Posada
Johnson – Ian Snell
Wessley – Tony Pena (ARI)

Round Twenty-Four
Wessley – Steven Drew (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – Tommy Hanson
Kimball – Scott Baker (Keeper, First Time)
Schilb – Melvin Mora
Morris – Ervin Santana (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – John Smoltz
Keller – Chris Duncan
Willey – Andre Ethier (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – Kevin Gregg
Weseloh – Travis Snider

Round Twenty-Five
Weseloh – Adam Jones (Keeper, First Time)
Allen – J.D. Drew
Willey – Clayton Kershaw (Keeper, First Time)
Keller – Aubrey Huff (Keeper, First Time)
Nielsen – Kelvim Escobar
Morris – Wandy Rodriguez
Schilb – Skip Schumaker
Kimball – Cliff Lee (Keeper, First Time)
Johnson – Rick Porcello
Wessley – Carlos Delgado (Keeper, First Time)

Kept: The Andrew Wessley Story

2009-03-14T04:15:00.002-05:00

(This is the beginning of the 10 part series that will breakdown everyone's keepers.)

Kept Players
Russell Martin (Round 10)
CC Sabathia (Round 14)
Carlos Delgado (Round 25)
Steven Drew (Round 24)
Jonathan Broxton (Round 15)

Last Year’s Record: 20-4
Division: Losers
Season Result: Division Winner, League Champion

Keeper Decision Scale: 5/10

The Good:
One cannot lose when one gets that kind of talent CC Sabathia has in the 14th round. Of course, there will always be the questions surrounding his weight, injury history and the pressure of New York. But Sabathia thrives under pressure (See: End of last season) and he has not been on the disabled list since early 2006 making Sabathia either due for an injury or continuing a trend of good health in 2009. I project the latter.

Russell Martin is an excellent value in the 10th round given the lightness of the catching position. Martin can hit for average and some power and can also steal bases. Andrew dominated stolen bases last season, which was one of the main reasons why he won The League in 2008.

Jonathan Broxton will be the young closer for the 2009 Los Angeles Dodgers and will not have a hard time finding save opportunities. The fifteenth round is very fair for him, maybe even a steal. There may be some concerns with him being 25 years old and closing for the first time in a big market, but Broxton has great stuff, which is evident by his 306 strikeouts in 241 career innings. Andrew will not regret this selection.

The Bad:
You should have kept K-Rod and Mariano Rivera. You won because of speed and saves, not because you had Carlos Delgado on your bench for half the season.

I understand the Steven Drew decision. Given the lack of depth at shortstop and the 24th round pick associated with Drew, it makes sense to me why you kept him. I could also understand the argument that Mariano Rivera is on the downside of his career and may not be the force he once was.

What I don’t understand is how you could consider Rodriguez a less valuable keeper prospect than Delgado? Especially when you admit that Delgado isn’t a starter on your 2009 team anyway? Clearly, you are willing to spend high draft picks on closers, why not keep Rodriguez and guarantee his starting position on your roster? Add one more top ten closer and your bullpen is about as dangerous, if not more, than it was last season.

Getting rid of both Rivera and Rodriguez was not the best situation you had on your table. And while it certainly doesn’t mean you’ll suck this year, it was not the best start you could have had.

The Story of CC Sabathia

2009-03-08T00:44:00.002-06:00

He is a large man; towering and imposing. His face is a deep darkness, staring straight at you with an intensity that can be taken in by all the senses. He is impossible to miss.

There was no way, not with everything on the line, CC Sabathia was going to allow the cursed Cubs to take away the Brewers shot at a playoff berth. So with this in mind and on three days rest, Sabathia tossed a four-hit, seven strikeout gem that would send the Brewers to their first playoff appearance since Robin Yount manned shortstop. And as the Brewers celebrated, Andrew Wessley sat in his chair soaking in his first fantasy baseball title and thanking the baseball gods for the good fortune of having one CC Sabathia.

***

The road of CC Sabathia in The League is an odd story, one no one would expect.

As noted by Kyle Morris, Sabathia’s undrafted status in 2007 was hard to believe.

“That’s ridiculously hard to believe,” Morris said. “Considering he had a 3.22 ERA in 2006 the year before The League was started.” His disbelief was palpable. “Are you sure no one drafted him? I can’t imagine anyone who had an ERA under four going completely undrafted.”

But it was true. The first draft of the new The League was a tough one. Three individuals – Erik Johnson, Jeff Kimball and Casey Allen – failed to attend the draft. The absence of these individuals left The League Manager, Ben Nielsen, between a rock and a hard place.

“It was tough,” Nielsen said. “There was a lot going on. It was the first time I had ever run a live draft, three people were not there and Jason Wiley kept exiting the chat room. Between all of that and drafting for four people, I lost track of what was going on.”

And, apparently, so did many people in The League. While it was perfectly acceptable for individuals like Joel Schilb and Tony Allen to make absolutely ridiculous decisions, watching Wessley pass on Sabathia round after round made the whole situation more perplexing.

“I remember watching the draft thinking that somebody was going to take him,” Wessley may or may not have said. “I remember thinking maybe if I wait another round, I can get him even lower. Before I knew it, the draft was over and Sabathia was not selected. I was astonished. I am also gay.”

So there Sabathia was, alone and without a team. But he wouldn’t go unnoticed for long.

“I remember entering everyone’s draft,” Nielsen recalls. “I remember being about six or seven teams in and noticing that Sabathia was still there. I looked at the last team I had to enter and saw Sabathia wasn’t on that team either. I remember thinking, ‘Andrew is a retarded homosexual.’ Either that or I was thinking, ‘I’ve got to pick Sabathia up right after I finalize the draft.’ One of those two. Maybe both. Probably both.”

Immediately after the draft was entered, Nielsen picked Sabathia up off of waivers and added him to his team. He thought he had a steal.

“I thought I had a steal,” Nielsen said.

But, for some reason unknown to man or Nielsen, Sabathia was mysteriously dropped from the Inoculators roster.

“I have no idea what happened or why I decided to drop him before week two - I’ll never know,” Nielsen said.

He’ll never know because after the first week of the season, ESPN had a major malfunction that required all of the rosters to be reset. The resetting of all the rosters permanently erased all knowledge of Sabathia’s addition or subtraction. What we do know is that, in week two, Sabathia appears on Johnson’s roster, netting him 41 points in a win over Nielsen’s Inoculators.

“Fate is a bitch,” Nielsen quipped.

Between April 10 and July 29, Sabathia was who we thought he was, so we justifiably crowned his ass. Sabathia struck out 143 batters and won 12 games for the Indians in that span and pushed Johnson into The League lead.

“I was happy to take Nielsen’s trash,” Johnson assholishly said. “As a matter of fact, I also picked up Ryan Braun after Ben dropped him. Nielsen pretty much won The League for me that year.”

“Bastard,” Nielsen said.

On August 1st, Andrew Wessley was in the midst of one of the worst fantasy seasons in history. I mean he sucked bad. For some reason unknown to intelligent man, he traded all of his best players to Nielsen for all of his worst players, putting him in a situation at the trading deadline where he was looking to add a keeper or two for the 2008 season.

“Ben Nielsen has to be the greatest baseball mind I have ever known,” Wessley recalled. “I mean, he’s just so freaking smart. If he was luckier, he would dominate this league hands down. Unfortunately for him, I’m the luckiest bastard in the world so… yeah, I’m gay.”

Wessley, looking for keeper prospects, turned to Johnson who was in a playoff chase with Nielsen and was looking to add one more arm to put him over the top.

“He wanted Hamels,” Wessley remembered. “While I really felt Hamels was a good keeper prospect, I felt that Sabathia was a better one. And since he went undrafted, it just made that much more sense for me to part ways with Hamels and add Sabathia.”

Wessley sent Cole Hamels, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Fausto Carmona to Johnson for Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia. Wessley would keep both Verlander and Sabathia for the 2008 season.

“I still to this day have no idea how Sabathia wasn’t drafted,” Wessley said.

“I do,” Nielsen said. “I was drafting for freaking half The League and Andrew, Tony and Joel are all idiots. How, in the comfort of your own home and with nothing to do in between picks, could you possibly miss the fact that CC Sabathia was not drafted? Seriously, how stupid do you have to be? Furthermore, how stupid to you have to be to agree to draft for four people? I think it must be noted that three of the four teams that made the playoffs that year were drafted by me – nobody ever recognizes this. I’m bitter! And Andrew is gay.”

Point taken.

2009 Keepers

2009-03-07T23:10:00.002-06:00

Ben Nielsen’s Keepers
Evan Longoria (1st Time – Round 18)
Ryan Braun (2nd Time – Round 14)
Carlos Quentin (1st Time – Round 15)
Josh Hamilton (1st Time – Round 17)
Joba Chamberlain – 1st Time – Round 19)

Erik Johnson’s Keepers
Tim Lincecum (2nd Time – Round 14)
Cole Hamels (2nd Time – Round 20)
Chad Billingsley (1st Time – Round 8)
Josh Beckett (2nd Time – Round 15)
Prince Fielder (2nd Time – Round 13)

Jason Wiley’s Keepers
Johnny Cueto (1st Time – Round 21)
Brad Lidge (1st Time – Round 12)
Andre Ethier (1st Time – Round 24)
Clayton Kershaw (1st Time – Round 25)
Jay Bruce (1st Time – Round 18)

Tony Allen’s Keepers
Jacoby Ellsbury (1st Time – Round 15)
Colby Rasmus (1st Time – Round 23)
Ryan Ludwick (1st Time – Round 13)
Edinson Volquez (1st Time – Round 14)
Dustin Pedroia (1st Time – Round 12)

Joel Schilb’s Keepers
Matt Holliday (2nd Time – Round 5)
Ryan Dempster (1st Time – Round 15)
Jhonny Peralta (1st Time – Round 23)
Geovany Soto (1st Time – Round 11)
Alexei Ramierez (1st Time – Round 14)

Jeff Weseloh’s Keepers
Lance Berkman (1st Time – Round 4)
Ian Kinsler (1st Time – Round 8)
Zack Greinke (1st Time – Round 13)
Adam Jones (1st Time – Round 25)
Jermaine Dye (1st Time – Round 22)

Jeff Kimball’s Keepers
Jonathan Papelbon (2nd Time – Round 14)
Shane Victorino (1st Time – Round 16)
Scott Baker (1st Time – Round 24)
Cliff Lee (1st Time – Round 25)
Josh Johnson (1st Time – Round 15)

Adam Keller’s Keepers
Jimmy Rollins (2nd Time – Round 4)
Dan Haren (2nd Time – Round 11)
Dan Uggla (1st Time – Round 17)
Aubrey Huff (1st Time – Round 25)
Ricky Nolasco (1st Time – Round 14)

Kyle Morris’ Keepers
Magglio Ordonez (2nd Time – Round 16)
Ervin Santana (1st Time – Round 24)
Jason Bay (1st Time – Round 18)
Joakim Soria (1st Time – Round 17)
Alfonso Soriano (1st Time – Round 5)

Andrew Wessley’s Keepers
Russell Martin (2nd Time – Round 10)
CC Sabathia (2nd Time – Round 14)
Carlos Delgado (1st Time – Round 25)
Steven Drew (1st Time – Round 24)
Jonathan Broxton (1st Time – Round 15)

Erik: Ben Has Options

2009-02-05T00:59:00.002-06:00

Here's the next baseball blog after along absence:
Now that Andrew has added another fantasy football championship to his collection, I gladly continue to look forward to fantasy baseball.

The team that has the most decisions to make this offseason is The Inoculators. By my count, Ben has 16 legitimate keeper candidates. At different points since last season ended, Ben has said he wanted all five of his keepers to be hitters or pitchers. With no idea what to expect from The Inoculators heading into 2009, I will take an unbiased look at what Ben could/should do.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

James Shields – 8
Clay Buchholz – 13
Jon Lester - 15
Josh Hamilton – 17
Evan Longoria – 18
Joba Chamberlain – 19
Matt Garza - 19
Cameron Maybin - 23
Joey Votto – 24
David Price – 25
Jair Jurrjens - 27
Mike Pelfrey - Undrafted
Mike Aviles – Undrafted
Carlos Quentin – Undrafted
Justin Upton - Undrafted
Ryan Braun – Undrafted

Assuming Ben decides to keep all hitters or pitchers, let’s take a look at his options:

Possible Hitters

Josh Hamilton
Evan Longoria
Cameron Maybin
Joey Votto
Mike Aviles
Carlos Quentin
Justin Upton
Ryan Braun

Despite their youth, I would consider Hamilton, Longoria and Braun three sure-fire All-Stars that Ben could build his team around. The White Sox’ Quentin went crazy last year before a wrist injury derailed his breakout campaign. It would have been nice for The Inoculators to see a full year’s worth of that production before locking him up as a keeper. Upton and Maybin have a world of potential, but the jury is out on when they will begin to recognize that potential. Votto quietly had a stellar rookie year and looks to benefit from playing 81 games per year in Cincinnati.

Possible Pitchers

James Shields
Clay Buchholz
Jon Lester
Joba Chamberlain
Matt Garza
David Price
Jair Jurrjens
Mike Pelfrey

Tying your fate to young pitchers is a risky endeavor unless you have the depth to replace from within when the inevitable injury takes place. Starting at the top, Shields is a very solid #2 pitcher but not an amazing value in the eighth round. Lester became one of the best pitchers in the game down the stretch last year. However, Lester, along with Shields, Chamberlain, Garza and Price, plays in the power-hungry American League East which can be a nightmare for pitchers and the fantasy nerd who owns them. On top of pitching in the AL East, Chamberlain has no clear role heading into next season and might not be worth the keeper spot if he stays in the set-up role all season. Price is an amazing talent who has the potential to be absolutely dominating. However, it is not yet known how the Rays will use Price to limit his workload in ’09. Finally, Jair Jurrjens had a great season in 2009, but he might not have the firepower in the strikeout department to earn keeper-status.

Expected Keepers for the Inoculators

Josh Hamilton – 17
Evan Longoria – 18
David Price - 25
Ryan Braun – Undrafted
Carlos Quentin - Undrafted

Although Ben says he wants to keep all hitters or pitchers, I think the potential of Price will win him over. With the other four spots, the hitters will win out because of their increased value in The League last year and a line-up centered around Hamilton in center, Quentin in right, Braun in left and Longoria at third will be hard to match-up with. Keeping these hitters will also allow Ben to fill in his pitching early as he won’t cost himself any early draft picks.

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 1 of 4: I rank Ben’s team first for two reasons. Number one, he has the best list of keepers so far. Number two, Ben always gets ranked first and never finishes there. With that in mind, I’ll rank him first and hope that the outcome is the same.
In all honesty, nobody can match up with the value Ben could have with Hamilton, Longoria and Braun. With those three, The Inoculators could have three top ten players with none being drafted higher than the 17th round. The only negative to these predicted keepers is the lack of established pitching, and injury risk.

Hamilton, Price and Quentin have all had injury issues in the past and none have performed at a consistently high level for more than one year. With that being said, The Inoculators could be the team to beat heading into 2009 ... but we all know that won't really happen.

Erik: Cliff Lee Is A Keeper

2009-01-01T10:47:00.000-06:00

After back-to-back playoff appearances, the Phantom Menace’s will attempt to get over the hump in 2009 by constantly reminding everyone how they drafted Cliff Lee in the 27th-round last year.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

Manny Ramirez – 4
Jose Valverde – 10
Jered Weaver – 11
Phil Hughes - 12
Scott Kazmir – 15
Shane Victorino – 16
Scott Baker – 24
Cliff Lee - 27
Ryan Doumit – Undrafted
Jorge Cantu – Undrafted
Nate McLouth – Undrafted
Denard Span – Undrafted
Josh Johnson – Undrafted

Something tells me that Kimball might keep Cliff Lee. Assuming that does happen, the Phantom Menace’s have four open spots and a lot of high-ceiling players who are unproven at the major-league level.

I don’t believe Kimball will keep Manny or Valverde because of their higher price tags in terms of the round they were drafted. I also don’t think keeping Hughes would be a good decision given the uncertainty of his situation going into 2009.

That leaves Weaver, Kazmir, Victorino, Baker, Doumit, Cantu, McLouth, Span and Johnson to fill the remaining four slots. Weaver is a solid third starting pitcher but doesn’t offer outstanding value in the eleventh round. Instead, I expect Kimball to take a hard look at Baker who offers many of the same attributes as Weaver but for a fraction of the cost. Kazmir was kept by Kimball last year and shows very good value in the 15th-round. However, I see Kazmir being released because of his inconsistency and past arm troubles.

Victorino is an interesting player in that he is not the superstar people look for but he managed to score nearly 700 points last year. Add in a full-year of a healthy Jimmy Rollins and Victorino’s numbers should only increase.

With the final few spots, I expect Kimball to look to his undrafted players. Nate McLouth came out of nowhere last year to hit 26 bombs and steal 23 bags. If he can come close to those numbers again this year, he would be an absolute steal for the Phantom Menaces. Finally, I think Kimball will take a chance on Josh Johnson with his last keeper spot. Johnson came back from arm surgery last season and posted an impressive line of 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA. Assuming his health improves, Johnson should only improve on those numbers next year.

Expected Keepers for the Phantom Menaces

Shane Victorino – 16
Scott Baker – 24
Cliff Lee – 27
Nate McLouth – Undrafted
Josh Johnson – Undrafted

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 2 of 3: Kimball’s possible keepers fall right in line with the keepers from Andrew and Tony’s teams. Victorino and McLouth offer great value in the outfield for Kimball much the same way Ludwick and Ellsbury do for Tony. What makes the Phantom Menaces’ situation so interesting is the pitching. I don’t think anybody knows what to expect out of Baker, Lee or Johnson this year. Baker is a younger pitcher who has never replicated numbers at the major-league level. Lee had never really come close to Cy Young status before last year and Johnson is still not that far removed from surgery. So far, the keeper possibilities from Andrew, Kimball and Tony all line up very similar to one another with Sabathia and Martin nudging Andrew to the top of the heap.

Erik: Lack of Dominate Pitcher Hurts Tony

2008-12-30T11:39:00.000-06:00

Today I will analyze the keeper situation for the San Antonio Saints … even if I am unsure as to whether Tony is actually living in San Antonio or not.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted
John Lackey – 3
Adam Wainwright – 6
Brian McCann – 7
Gil Meche – 11
Dustin Pedroia – 12
Kevin Youkilis – 12
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15
Colby Rasmus – 23
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
David Murphy – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted
Kyle Lohse – Undrafted

Two things jump out to me when I look at Tony’s list of potential keepers:

1. I think his ultimate goal is to fill his roster with completely with Cardinals and Red Sox.
2. Our league is full of morons. First, I write about Andrew keeping the undrafted C.C. Sabathia and now I see Volquez and Ludwick were undrafted. Now I understand that these guys were under the radar coming into last year, but for nobody to take a flyer on them in the late rounds … I think that puts us on par with Johnny Knoxville on an IQ test.

Looking at the Saints’ list of possibilities, nobody really jumps out at me as an absolute must-keep. However, Volquez and Pedroia are pretty close. It will be interesting to see how Volquez bounces back from a sub-par second half and a career high in innings thrown. As for Pedroia, I find it hard to believe that he will duplicate his 2008 MVP season, but he will still put up great numbers for a second basemen and 12th round pick.

Once you get by Volquez and Pedroia, Tony will have some very difficult decisions. Luckily for me, I can refer back to his ultimate goal and get a good idea who he will keep.

Wainwright will be looking to make the jump into the league’s elite pitchers in 2009, but could be a little pricey at a 6th round pick give his recent injury struggles. So, with that Cardinal out of the picture, I think Tony will turn to his 23rd-rounder from last year Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is a great prospect and a great value at the 23rd round, but questions still remain about whether he will break camp with the big league club next year.

With one Cardinal already in the outfield, Tony will look to add a second with Ryan Ludwick. Ludwick had an amazing 2008 season, coming out of nowhere to hit almost .300 with 37 homers. With his undrafted status, Tony adds another solid Cardinal to his team.

With his last keeper spot, I expect Tony to stay true to his rule and choose between two BoSox, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury. Youkilis is a great hitter and good value in the 12th round, but Ellsbury has a higher upside, was a 15th rounder, and should get even more playing time this year with the cereal man out of the picture.

Expected Keepers for the Saints
Dustin Pedroia – 12th
Jacoby Ellsbury – 15th
Colby Rasmus – 23rd
Ryan Ludwick – Undrafted
Edinson Volquez – Undrafted

Ranking of Possible Keepers: 2 of 2: Tony is in solid position to improve on his struggles from 2008 with this solid group of keepers. If Pedroia and Ludwick are able to duplicate their ’08 campaigns (which I think is a little unlikely in both cases) and Ellsbury and Rasums follow their projected path, Tony could have one of the most dangerous line-ups in 2009 and not use anything higher than a 12th round pick on his keepers. The only thing that pushes Tony below Andrew is the lack of a dominant pitcher. Volquez and Wainwright have the possibilities, but I am not ready to say either is in the elite category yet. Of course, there is always the possibility that Tony throws me for a loop by keeping Wainwright, Rasmus, Ludwick. Lohse and Carpenter.

Erik: Andrew is Number 1 (of 1)!

2008-12-18T17:05:00.000-06:00

With the winter meetings having come to a close, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the keeper situations facing each of the ten teams The League.

With that wonderful introduction in place, we will now take a look at the reigning champions, Hancocks Halos.

Possible Keeper – Round Drafted

Brian Roberts – 3

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 4

Francisco Rodriguez – 6

Conor Jackson – 9

Justin Verlander – 11

Ubaldo Jimenez – 14

Rick Ankiel – 21

Stephen Drew – 24

Carlos Delgado – 28

John Danks – Undrafted

Russell Martin – Undrafted

Carlos Gomez – Undrafted

CC Sabathia – Undrafted

The most talked about baseball player over the last six months headlines the potential keepers for Andrew. Sabathia was dominant in the second half last year and along with Johan Santana helped carry the Halos to The League Title. The big question here is not whether Andrew will keep Sabathia but rather how will Sabathia fare with the Yankees. He moves into a power-heavy division with the burden of a $161 million contract (think of all the Hostess snacks he could/will buy with that much money) on his shoulders having just thrown well over 400+ innings in the last two years combined. I think he will be a steal for Andrew given his undrafted status, but I don’t expect him to equal the second half he put together last year at any time in the 2009 season.

Assuming Sabathis is kept, that would leave four slots open for Andrew with many viable options, but no sure things. Roberts, Matsuzaka, Rodriguez and Jackson would all be solid values if kept, but probably are not the great values Andrew will be looking for with his keeper spots.

Next on the list as far as intrigue goes is Justin Verlander. Verlander struggled greatly last season as his control and velocity took a gigantic step back from their 2007 form. Having said that, Verlander has the highest upside of any of the players remaining for Andrew, but his disastrous 2008 season would make keeping Verlander a big risk at the cost of a 10^th-round pick (this would be Verlander’s second season to be kept). Right behind Verlander in terms of upside is Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez has an electric arm and showed signs of putting things together last year for the Rockies. He offers Andrew much of the same upside of Verlander will a little less risk and could be a guy to keep an eye on.

Carlos Delgado is an interesting situation as well. Delgado stumbled out of the gates last year but caught fire in the middle of the year and turned out to be one of the top values from last year’s draft. Delgado is obviously getting up there in age and it will be interesting to see if Andrew thinks Delgado can keep it together for at least one more season. The big plus for the Halos is that if they keep Delgado and he bombs next year, they will have only wasted a 28^th round pick.

Russell Martin is another of the undrafted players I expect Andrew to keep (how could Sabathia and Martin go undrafted two years ago – I keep checking the draft results expecting that I have just overlooked Martin, but I can’t find him anywhere). Martin is a solid player at a weak position and would be a great value for Andrew.

Expected Keepers for Hancock Halos

Jimenez – 14th

Delgado – 28th

Sabathia – Undrafted

Danks – Undrafted

Martin - Undrafted

Ranking of possible keepers: 1 of 1. Andrew has a solid group of keeper possibilities headlined by the undrafted trio of Sabathia, Danks and Martin. The group as a whole lacks a certain amount of upside, but provides solid value for the reigning champs. I think this group will put Andrew in position to field a very solid team this year but he will probably be at a slight disadvantage to a few teams heading into the draft.

Baseball Begins!!! (In four months...)

2008-12-10T21:38:00.004-06:00

Hey, it’s the winter meetings and you know what that means… nothing. But, hey, why not talk a little baseball to remind us that the next losing season for the Royals begins in about four months. Yipee.

Mostly, I start this blog up again for three reasons: First, Erik says he has a series he wants to unleash on you so you should check back often to see what he says about you; Second, I’m writing for a Royals blog called “The Royal Treatment” so you should check that out every once in a while (I’m BlownSave…what are the odds?); Finally, I wanted to remind you of some of the changes for next season – hopefully there will be no more major changes for the life of this league.

Roster Changes

Roster size = 25 (Down from 28)

Designated Hitter = eliminated
Utility Player = added
Starting Pitching Spots = 3 (down from 5)
General Pitching Spot = 1 (up from 0)
Relief Pitching Spots = 3 (up from 2)

Notes:
The Utility player addition comes by popular demand... The amount of bench spots has been reduced by three in order to limit stockpiling of players and to maintain the value of the free agent market… The total amount of starters (hitters and pitchers) has not changed and there is no limit to how many times a player can be started or how many innings a player can play… The reduction of the two starting pitcher spot is to make room for the added relief pitcher position and general pitching position… The general pitching spot can be filled by either a starter or reliever.

Point Changes

Hitting: All hitting statistics will remain the same.

Pitching:

H = -0.5 (adjusted from –1)
BB = -0.5 (adjusted from –1.5)
K = 2 (adjusted from 3)
W = 5 (adjusted from 10)
L = -5 (adjusted from –10)
QS = 10 (adjusted from 5)

Added Statistic: Holds = 2.5

Notes:
I have heard minimal complaints about the hitting formula so I will no changes will be made… The changes to W, L, QS are being made as to better reflect a pitcher’s performance and not his team’s… I had no idea how to quantify a “hold” in fantasy terms so I just made it half a save – feel free to send suggestions on holds.

Keeper Rules for This Offseason

Total Keepers Allowed: 5
Trade Deadline with 2008 Rosters: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Keeper Deadline: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Proposed Draft Date: Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 3 p.m.
- Players drafted in the first or second round in 2008 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- View the previous post for players who are ineligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players count as a 15th round pick (Multiple undrafted players will count as a 15th, 14th, etc. round draft pick).

A correction to the list of ineligible keepers:

Jonathan Papelbon is available to be kept. That was my error.

Rule/Point/Keeper Changes

2008-09-21T09:20:00.001-05:00

The following are the proposed changes for next season:

Roster Changes

Roster size = 25 (Down from 28)

Designated Hitter = eliminated
Utility Player = added
Starting Pitching Spots = 3 (down from 5)
General Pitching Spot = 1 (up from 0)
Relief Pitching Spots = 3 (up from 2)

Notes:
The Utility player addition comes by popular demand... The amount of bench spots has been reduced by three in order to limit stockpiling of players and to maintain the value of the free agent market… The total amount of starters (hitters and pitchers) has not changed and there is no limit to how many times a player can be started or how many innings a player can play… The reduction of the two starting pitcher spot is to make room for the added relief pitcher position and general pitching position… The general pitching spot can be filled by either a starter or reliever.

Point Changes

Hitting: All hitting statistics will remain the same.

Pitching:

H = -0.5 (adjusted from –1)
BB = -0.5 (adjusted from –1.5)
K = 2 (adjusted from 3)
W = 5 (adjusted from 10)
L = -5 (adjusted from –10)
QS = 10 (adjusted from 5)

Added Statistic: Holds = 2.5

Notes:
I have heard minimal complaints about the hitting formula so I will no changes will be made… The changes to W, L, QS are being made as to better reflect a pitcher’s performance and not his team’s… I had no idea how to quantify a “hold” in fantasy terms so I just made it half a save – feel free to send suggestions on holds.

Keeper Rules for This Offseason

Total Keepers Allowed: 5
Trade Deadline with 2008 Rosters: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Keeper Deadline: Saturday, March 14, 2009
Proposed Draft Date: Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 3 p.m.
- Players drafted in the first or second round in 2008 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- Players who were kept coming into this season who were drafted in the first or second round of 2007 are NOT eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players from 2008 ARE eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players from 2007 who were kept coming into this season ARE eligible to be kept.
- Undrafted players count as a 15th round pick
- Multiple undrafted players will count as a 15th, 14th, etc. round draft pick.

Here is the list of UNELIGIBLE keepers:
Vladimir Guerrero
Hanley Ramirez
Johan Santana
Jose Reyes
Albert Pujols
Chase Utley
Alex Rodriguez
Brandon Webb
Grady Sizemore
David Wright
Carl Crawford
Brandon Phillips
Ryan Howard
Ichiro Suzuki
Carlos Beltran
B.J. Upton
David Ortiz
Mark Teixeira
Carlos Zambrano
Carlos Lee
Justin Morneau
Troy Tulowitzki

Draft rounds three through twenty-eight:
(Note: The following players are eligible to be kept after this season is finished. Additional keeper rules are noted at the end of the post.)

Round Three
Roy Oswalt
Alex Rios
Victor Martinez
Nick Markakis
Miguel Cabrera (two years left of keeper eligibility)
John Lackey
Aramis Ramirez
Brian Roberts
Felix Hernandez
Travis Hafner (two years left of keeper eligibility)

Round Four
John Smoltz
Derrek Lee
Manny Ramirez
Garret Atkins (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Fausto Carmona
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Joe Mauer (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Derek Jeter
Jake Peavy (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Lance Berkman

Round Five
Yovani Gallardo
Alfonso Soriano
Tim Hudson
J.J. Putz
Carlos Guillen
Chipper Jones
Jimmy Rollins (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Roy Halladay

Round Six
Hunter Pence
Jeff Francis
Michael Young
Matt Holliday (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Hideki Matsui
Adam Wainwright
Chris Young
Francisco Rodriguez
Eric Byrnes
Alex Gordon

Round Seven
Matt Kemp
Robinson Cano
Mike Lowell
Miguel Tejada
Brad Penny
Brian McCann
Takashi Saito
Carlos Pena
Chone Figgins
Joe Nathan

Round Eight
Chad Billingsley
Khalil Greene
Aaron Rowand
Javier Vazquez
Ben Sheets
James Shields
Brett Meyers
Brad Hawpe
Matt Cain
Ian Kinsler

Round Nine
Ryan Zimmerman
Chien-Ming Wang
Conner Jackson
Torii Hunter
Francisco Liriano
Orlando Hudson
Chris B. Young
Mariano Rivera
Placido Polanco
Adrian Gonzalez

Round Ten
A.J. Burnett
Jose Valverde
Jorge Posada
Pat Burrell
Johnny Damon
Billy Wagner
Kelvim Escobar
Gary Sheffield
Jim Thome
Adrian Beltre

Round Eleven
Jeremy Bonderman
Bobby Jenks
Jered Weaver
Pedro Martinez
Francisco Cordero
Gil Meche
John Maine
Justin Verlander (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Geovany Soto
Kenji Johjima

Round Twelve
Howie Kendrick
Brad Lidge
Billy Butler
Dustin Pedroia
James Loney
Kevin Youkilis
Dan Haren (two years left of eligibility)
Rich Hill
Phil Hughes
Joe Blanton

Round Thirteen
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Varitek
Kosuke Fukudome
Dustin McGowan
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jason Isringhausen
Cory Hart
Todd Helton
Clay Buchholtz
Zack Greinke

Round Fourteen
Oliver Perez
Dontrelle Willis
Mark Buehrle
Huston Street
Rafael Soriano
Al Reyes
Derrek Lowe
Ian Snell
Ubaldo Jimenez
Greg Maddux

Round Fifteen
Rich Harden
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Kazmir (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Jeremy Guthrie
Brian Bannister
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jeff Francoeur
Jon Lester
Randy Johnson
Joe Borowski

Round Sixteen
Mark Prior
Juan Pierre
Shane Victorino
Josh Beckett (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Hiroki Kuroda
Jacque Jones
Micah Owings
Vernon Wells
Homer Bailey
Andy Pettitte

Round Seventeen
Nick Swisher
Chad Cordero
Tom Gorzelanny
Coco Crisp
Magglio Ordonez (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Edgar Renteria
Dan Uggla
Bronson Arroyo
Joakim Soria
Josh Hamilton

Round Eighteen
Jay Bruce
Ty Wiggington
J.J. Hardy
Dave Bush
Paul Konerko
Jason Bay
Michael Bourn
Shaun Marcum
Evan Longoria
Andruw Jones

Round Nineteen
Joba Chamberlain
Erik Bedard (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Jeremy Accardo
Michael Cuddyer
Matt Capps
Jorge Cantu
Delmon Young
Manny Corpas
Matt Garza
J.D. Drew

Round Twenty
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Jeff Kent
Melky Cabrera
Barry Zito
Kevin Gregg
Frank Thomas
Todd Jones
Kelly Johnson
Kerry Wood
David DeJesus

Round Twenty-one
Cole Hamels (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Johnny Cueto
Yorvit Torrealba
Rick Ankiel
Curtis Granderson (two years left of keeper eligibility)
Chris Duncan
Jack Cust
Carlos Marmol
Rickie Weeks
Chad Tracy

Round Twenty-two
Rafael Furcal
Jason Giambi
Aaron Cook
Jake Westbrook
Tony Pena
Nate Robinson
Kyle Kendrick
Josh Fields
Jermaine Dye
Kevin Correia

Round Twenty-three
Cameron Maybin
Adam Miller
Freddy Sanchez
Jhonny Peralta
Franklin Morales
Colby Rasmus
Bengie Molina
Bartolo Colon
Andrew Miller
Chris Sampson

Round Twenty-four
Joey Votto
Chuck James
Scott Baker
Brandon Lyon
Ervin Santana
Hideki Okajima
Tom Glavine
Steven Drew
J.R. Towels
Adam Jones

Round Twenty-five
David Price
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Church
Ramon Hernandez
Kenny Rogers
Braden Looper
Josh Willingham
Daniel Cabrera
Tim Wakefield
Jhonny Estrada

Round Twenty-six
Clayton Kershaw
Yunel Escobar
Hank Blaylock
Pat Neshek
Lastings Millage
Troy Glaus
Aubrey Huff
Jon Garland
Brandon Wood
Jeff Suppan

Round Twenty-seven
Andre Either
Cliff Lee
Paul Byrd
Gustavo Chachin
Ryan Garko
Jair Jurrjens
Willie Blumquest

Round Twenty-eight
Carlos Delgado
Shawn Hill
Mark Mulder

A Really Overdue Blog Post

2008-09-20T16:09:00.000-05:00

Note to self: Working with SPED kids does not increase blog productivity.

Additional Note to Self: Not having the internet seriously hinders posting on blogs.

One More Note to Self: Not having a computer makes having the internet difficult.

Next topic!

***

This season is only eight days away from being over. THANK GOD!!! What a disastrous season it has been. Any time Andrew has the number one seeded team and 20 wins should tip people off that something extremely foul is afoot. Seriously, 20 wins for Andrew? Really??? And what the hell is Joel doing in the playoffs? Andrew and Joel are living proof that anybody, ANYBODY, can win a fantasy league.

Anyway, we’ll do this whole season in review thing later. For now, there are still those 8 days we have to mercilessly live through.

WHAT IS BECOMING THE OBVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Baring something insane happening, Andrew and Erik are going to be playing for the league title. I hope they both lose.

Each team is built on pitching and has multiple guys with over 400 points.

Andrew: CC Sabathia, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Johan Santana

Erik: Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Rich Harden, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett

While Erik clearly has a pitching edge he almost losses all of it because of his poor lineup. Erik has four hitters who have yet to hit 400 points on the season and only three who have passed the 600-point plateau. In comparison, Andrew has just one starting hitter who has yet to surpass 600 points. To add to Erik’s problems, it is likely Gary Sheffield will be suspended for a few games this week (baring an appeal) and will leave Erik without a legit DH for championship week.

There will be more on this Monday.

CHECK THE BLOG SUNDAY

I have already written and scheduled for a post to show up Sunday that will detail Keeper rules and point changes for next season. Please get back to me after you read the post with your thoughts and comments.

About those point changes...

2008-07-18T20:21:00.002-05:00

When I did the goofy point changes for this week, I put notes on each one thinking that everyone could read them. Well, apparently, you guys cannot do that for some reason, so I’m going to copy and past those here and give you a chance to read them.

Smurfs vs. Roid Needles

Smurfs - Plus 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

CRN - Added 220 Home Run Derby points to CRN from the production of Justin Morneau (22). Subtracted 220 points for stealing away the title from Josh Hamilton. Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

Rasmus’ vs. Boom Goes the Dynamite

Rasmus’ - Added 10 points for not have Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtracted 10 points for having Ryan Ludwick on your roster.

BGtD - Added 60 Home Run Derby points to BGD for the performance of Dan Uggla (6). Subtract 160 for Dan Uggla's performance in the All-Star game. Subtract 10 points for having Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtract 10 points for having a terrible fantasy name.

Hancock’s Halos vs. The Zou

Halos – Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster. Subtracted 60 points for being a douche and hogging all the luck this season.

The Zou - Added 10 points for not having Dan Uggla on your roster.

Rolorado Cockies vs. KC

Cockies – Added 60 Home Run Derby points to RC from the performance of Grady Sizemore (6). Subtracted 1130 points for being a Cardinals fan and thus being related in some fashion to Joe Buck.

KC - Added 140 Home Run Derby points to KC from the performance of Lance Berkman (14). Subtracted 1140 points for beating BSI by .5 points last week.

Inoculators vs. Phantom Menaces

Inoculators – Added 520 Home Run Derby points to BSI from the performance of Josh Hamilton (35), Ryan Braun (14) and Evan Longoria (3). Added 435.5 points in tribute to last week's hard luck loss. Added 45.5 points for writing worthless blog posts.

Phantom Menaces - Added 50 Home Run Derby points to PM from the performance of Chase Utley (5).

SUB-300 Syndrome and How It Has Affected the First Half

2008-07-14T13:42:00.003-05:00

There have been 41 times this season where a team’s opponent has scored under 299 points. The data suggests some of the reasons why certain teams are winning frequently, while others have not. Here is the data followed by some thoughts.

When Opponent Scores Under 299 Points

BSI: 2 times (1-1) – W vs. KS, L vs. Zou
KS: 5X (3-2) – W vs. BSI and KC twice, L vs. PM and BGD
CRN: 5X (4-1) – W vs. Zou, KS, BSI, BGD – L vs. PM
KC: 2X (0-2) – L vs. HH and KS
HH: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, RC, CRN, KS, BGD, RC, SPR
SPR: 2X (2-0) – W vs. RC, KS
PM: 7X (7-0) – W vs. KC, CRN, KS, CRN, SPR, BGD, KS
BGD: 3X (3-0) – W vs. HH, KS, RC
RC: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BGD, CRN and L vs. HH
ZOU: 4X (3-1) – W vs. KS, BSI, KS and L vs. CRN

When Scoring Under 299 Points

BSI: 3X – L vs. Zou, Smurfs, CRN
HH: 3X – W vs. KC and RC with L vs. BGD
KS: 11X – Check season schedule
CRN: 5X – W vs. Zou with L vs. PM twice, HH, RC
KC: 4X – L vs. PM, HH, KS twice
SPR: 2X – L vs. PM and HH
PM: 2X – W vs. CRN and KS (Note: CRN and KS two lowest scoring teams)
BGD: 5X – W vs. KS and L vs. RC, CRN, HH, PM
RC: 4X – L vs. SPR, HH twice, BGD
ZOU: 2X – W vs. BSI and L vs. CRN

Let’s focus on the Halos for a moment. The Halos are 7-0 against teams that scored under 299 points against him, but there is another stat that is telling as well. The median average of points scored per game for the league is 336. Three times this season the Halos' opponent has scored between 300 and 325 points, resulting in a 2-1 record for the Halos. This means in two-thirds of the Halos matchups this season, his opponent has scored at least 10 points below league average. Ten times! The Halos have had their opponent score over 350 points four times this season and is 2-2 in those matchups.

Now, Andrew would probably argue that he has scored the most points in the league (by far) so who cares? This is an excellent point, but my purpose is not to say Andrew’s team sucks (because it doesn't). No, the point is luck is a big factor in fantasy. For instance, if Andrew’s opponents were averaging 358 points a game (like what Inoculators opponents are averaging) he would be 9-6. If Inoculators opponents were averaging 288 points (like what Halos opponents are averaging) Ben would be 14-1.

Of course, no one is posting “average points against” every week so this is not to say the Inoculators would be actually be 14-1 or the Halos would be 9-6. There are obviously other factors to consider. The point, again, is the impact of luck in fantasy.

A deeper analysis of the Inoculators is forthcoming (I know you could care less, but I just freaking lost a matchup by .5 points so deal with it!), but I thought I’d post this first.

Links and Stuff

2008-07-14T10:00:00.000-05:00

A good video to watch this morning - and every morning - on Deadspin. Very funny, yet, informative. Awful Announcing does the video and is also a good site to check out. As is Fire Joe Morgan, which recently destroyed a Kansas City Star columnist.

Round-Up and Review

2008-07-14T07:54:00.001-05:00

Rant coming later. I hate my life.

Sunday Round-Up

KC Hitters
Jermaine Dye = 19 FP
Ian Kinsler = 15 FP
Orlando Cabrera = 11 FP
Lance Berkman = 11 FP
James Loney = 10 FP

Other Hitters
Brian McCann: 3-3, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3 runs, BB = 20 FP
Matt Kemp: 3-4, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 runs, BB, K, 2 SB = 19 FP
Troy Glaus: 3-4, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 runs, BB = 18 FP

Halos Pitchers
CC Sabathia = 38 FP
Justin Verlander = 36.5 FP
Daisuke Matsuzaka = 32.5 FP

Zou Pitchers
Chad Billingsley = 56.5 FP
Tim Lincecum = 42.5 FP
Cole Hamels = 21 FP

Inoculators Pitchers
Mike Pelfrey = 35 FP
Brandon Webb = 19.5 FP

Week in Review

Halos Monster Sunday Adds to Point Lead

The Halos posted 89.5 points or higher in a day four times en route to a 556.5-248 victory over the Rasmus’. It looked for a while that the Phantom Menaces would be a able to chip away at the total point leader’s cushion after his won 505.5 point performance, but, because Andrew sold his soul to the devil three months ago and pulled a 122 point day out of his butt Sunday, the Halos prevailed. Nonetheless, Andrew now boasts a 5811.5-5489.5 lead over Kimball and appears to be smooth sailing towards a division title and the number one seed.

Six Teams Crack 5000

Four teams cracked 5000 points to add to the two teams who already surpassed the milestone. The Halos lead the way with 5811.5, followed by the Phantom Menaces (5489.5), Zou (5423.5), Inoculators (5405), Cockies (5053) and Rasmus’ (5002.5). Please note that only 84.5 points separate the 6-9 Inoculators from the 12-3 Phantom Menaces, only furthering the speculation that Fantasy Baseball is gay.

Dynamite Upset Cockies; Zou Upended by ‘Roid Needles

A 117 point day by the Zou was only good enough to narrow his losing margin to 50 in a 412.5-362.5 loss to the ‘Roid Needles. CRN had two huge weeks from Hiroki Kuroda and Ervin Santana to pull off the minor upset.

The far from minor upset came when the now 5-10 Dynamite defeated the Cockies soundly, 412-257.5. The Dynamite got 59.5 points from the arm of known fantasy stud Ricky Nolasco (!) and 218 points from his offense to pull off the upset.

In related news, the Cockies have contacted the ‘Roid Needles to let him know that, since he’s basically out of the playoff race, he is open for trades. The Cockies have a one game lead over the ‘Roid Needles for the final playoff spot with nine weeks remaining.

Well, that’s all the news this week – besides that whole “Ben losing by .5 points” thing… #$%@#!!!!!!

Playing for Keeps: New Top 10 BA Prospects

2008-07-13T20:17:00.000-05:00

Heading into the second half of the season, some teams will be looking to add players for a late season push and to make a playoff run. Other teams will being trying to figure out how to reconfigure their roster in order to add more keeper prospects. Which ever mode you’ll be in, you’ll want to know these 10 names – the new top 10 prospect list Baseball America posted this past week. Here are those 10 players and their possible impact this season and beyond.

1. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, 20, Dodgers (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: ZOU
Career Numbers: 208.1 IP, 268 K, 2.64 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Season Numbers: 49.1 IP, 51 K, 2.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Quick Shot: Kershaw dominated as a 19-year-old 163 strikeouts in 122 innings pitched last season – mostly in the Midwest League (A). He has been primarily in the Southern League (AA) this season, but has made eight starts in the big leagues this season (38.2 IP, 33 K, 4.42 ERA, 1.62 WHIP).

Future: Kershaw, like anybody on this list, is expected to have an exceptional big league career. His fantasy prospects are also very high given his exceptional strikeout numbers at such a young age. More time in the big leagues will allowing him to gain better control and become a more effective pitcher. Remember, this kid was in only 20.

Season Stock: Kershaw is difficult piece for the Zou to label. Kershaw may be among his five keepers after this season is over, but Kershaw is probably his best trading piece to a non-contending team in order to pick up much needed offensive help. To add to the issue, Kershaw is not likely to be a player that helps The Zou make it into the playoffs and defend his title. Personally, I think Kershaw is a player to be had for a top infielder or right fielder.

2. David Price, lhp, 22, Rays (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: BSI
Career Numbers: 8-0, 60.2 IP, 59 K, 1.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Season Numbers: 8-0, 60.2 IP, 59 K, 1.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

Quick Shot: Price was the number one overall pick in last year’s June Amateur Draft. He was dominating while at Vanderbilt and hit has carried over into his first full minor league season. While his strikeout rate is not as high as Kershaw’s it is still very strong at nearly one strikeout per inning pitched. Price is expected to be called up to the big leagues in either late-July or August to work out of the Rays bullpen.

Future Stock: Price has the potential to be a one or two starter in a rotation, but will probably not crack the top two for some time with James Shields and Scott Kazmir holding the top two spots in Tampa. The Rays also have starting pitchers Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and Jacob McGee (all three Top 30 prospects) coming up through the system. Still, Price should be a mainstay in the Rays rotation for some time.

Season Stock: Price will carry value as a guy who could pitch on any given day out of the bullpen, strike a lot of people out and not cost sitting relief pitcher due to his starting pitcher eligibility. Price will probably cost more to obtain from the Inoculators because of his current 6-8 record.

3. Matt Wieters, c, 22, Orioles (AA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: .345/.445/.584 with 18 HR in 281 AB
Season Numbers: .345/.445/.584 with 18 HR in 281 AB

Quick Shot: Wieters was drafted by the Orioles last season in the June Draft. He fell to the Orioles because of signability issues and now the Orioles are reaping the benefits. What is impressive about Wieters, ignoring his 1.029 OPS, is he has a 55/52 K/BB ratio. Wieters has also thrown out 25 of 55 would be base stealers and has allowed three passed balls from his catching position.

Future: Wieters is going to be a stud hitter for the Orioles to go along with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts. His ability to hit should also see him getting at bats from the DH spot in the order to keep his bat in the order when he needs some rest. While he isn’t going to maintain a 1.029 OPS over the course of a season, he will certainly provide a ton of power and be a tough out.

Season Stock: Wieters has only had 340 minor league plate appearances in his career with most coming in the Carolina League (HiA). But if he keeps hitting like this, it may be tough for the Orioles to ignore him in September, which means he would be added to the ESPN system. If that happens, expect a mad dash to try to pick him up and for the eventual owner to receive a lot of trade offers in the offseason. With this said, I’d be surprised if he made the big league club out of spring training next year. I think the earliest he sees extended time in the big leagues will be midseason next year.

4. Colby Rasmus, of, 21, Cardinals (AAA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: SPR
Career Numbers: .277/.367/.488 with 63 HR and 72 SB, 21 OF Assists – 19 Errors
Season Numbers: .249/.351/.401 with 11 HR and 13 SB

Quick Shot: Rasmus is a five tool player with potential for greater power and hitting ability. At 21 he still has a ton of development left in his game and his body to become a premier player. This is Rasmus first season in AAA and has just recently hit the DL with a leg injury.

Future: I’m not a scout, but Rasmus has similarities to Carlos Beltran. Though that could be just because he has a ton of tools. Whatever. Anyway, Rasmus is going to be a good player, but he is blocked at the moment by a deep Cardinal outfield (Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker). It will be interesting to see what the Cardinals decide to do. At any rate, it makes predicting Rasmus call-up to the big leagues a bit more difficult to predict given that Rasmus really isn’t pounding on the doors at the moment.

Season Stock: His stock for this season is next to nothing. I’d suspect that trading for him from a Cardinals fan would likely be out of the question as well.

5. Jason Heyward, of, 19, Braves (LoA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: .326/.391/.478 with 9 HR and 15 SB
Season Numbers: .329/.396/.476 with 8 HR and 14 SB

Quick Shot: Heyward had just 43 at bats last season in two separate rookie leagues before entering this season. In his first season in the South Atlantic League (A) he is putting strong numbers. He ranks 13th in OPS so far this season.

Future: Heyward’s value comes in his age (18) and his body (6’4”, 220). As his body fills out he should develop more power than he already has now to go along with his good feel for the strike zone. He’s probably a few years away from the big leagues.

Season Stock: None until about 2010.

6. Cameron Maybin, of, 21, Marlins (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: FA
Career Numbers: .296/.385/.479 with 35 HR, 17 3B and 69 SB
Season Numbers: .265/.357/.461 with 12 HR, 6 3B and 17 SB

Quick Shot: Maybin is a tremendous talent that was rushed to the big leagues last season in Detroit (promoted from A+ to MLB by Detroit). Maybin has a rare combination of power and speed that will make him very valuable. The downside is he has huge strikeout issues (99 K in 306 AB in AA this season). He will have to reduce that before Florida calls him up to the bigs.

Future: Maybin will likely spend all season in the minors. The earliest I see him coming up is midseason next year, but I don’t think that will happen. Maybin is still just 21-years-old.

Season Stock: Maybin will likely not be a September call-up, but it is not entirely out of the question. He probably is a bit of a risk to keep, but he is available to pick up if you are desperate for options.

7. Matt LaPorta, of, 23, Indians (AA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: .296/.393/.607 with 33 HR and 1.000 OPS
Season Numbers: .292/.401/.575 with 21 HR and a 67/45 K/BB ratio

Quick Shot: LaPorta has tons of power and a decent feel for the strike zone. He is an average defender and doesn’t have a lot of speed. Still, the kid can rake.

Future: LaPorta is very close to being big league ready. His numbers dictate he could handle a jump to AAA today if that is what Cleveland decided to do. It would not be surprising of he was given a September call-up given how he’s playing this season. An outfield with both him and Grady Sizemore in it has insane potential. Add in a healthy Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner and things are looking up in Cleveland.

Season Stock: Given LaPorta’s power he could make things interesting for a contending team if he is called up in September. LaPorta is another one of those guys who may not make the club out of Spring Training next year, but I think he has a better shot than Maybin or Wieters.

8. Rick Porcello, rhp, 19, Tigers (HiA)
Available to Own: No
Owned By: n/a
Career Numbers: 90 IP, 49 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Season Numbers: 90 IP, 49 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Quick Shot: Porcello is very young (19) and has a ton of upside. This is his first full season in pro ball and he’s doing it in the Florida State League (HiA). Porcello will strikeout more batters as his control improves and he gets a better feel for pitching in the pros.

Future: At he age of 19 and standing at 6’5”, 200 the future is very bright for him. He has the ability to develop three “plus” pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Changeup) and has a decent slider. He’s already toping out at 94 mph on his fastball and has good life to it. He’s going to be REALLY good and was a steal for the Tigers at 23 overall in last year’s draft. Put him in with Detroit’s massive stadium and strong lineup and he’s going to be tough to beat.

Season Stock: He won’t see the bigs until 2010 at the earliest.

9. Andrew McCutchen, of, 21, Pirates (AAA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: FA
Career Numbers: .284/.361/.418 with 85 SB
Season Numbers: .282/.371/.405 with 8 HR and 24 SB

Quick Shot: McCutchen is a toolsy player with very good speed. At 5’11”, 175 there is not a lot of room to grow, limiting his power potential. But McCutchen is expected to develop more power than he has now. McCutchen has a decent arm and can cover a lot of ground in centerfield.

Future: McCutchen should bring lots of run production to the Pirate lineup. This is his first full year in AAA but he has more than 400 at bats at the AAA level. Expect a September call up with McCutchen and a possible Opening Day start next season. This plan could be accelerated if Jason Bay is traded by the deadline.

Season Stock: McCutchen probably won’t have a lot of impact this season but he could be a nice player to have next season. He’d be worth trading for if you need keeper prospects and has added value because of his ability to steal bases and score runs.

10. Travis Snider, of, 20, Blue Jays (AA)
Available to Own: Yes
Owned By: FA
Career Numbers:.299/.370/.514 with 45 HR – 296 K, 114 BB
Season Numbers: .266/.336/.471 with 18 HR

Quick Shot: Snider has a tremendous about of power that should translate to the majors. He does have a massive strikeout problem (120 K in 350 AB – 35 BB). This is going to have to be fixed before he can move up to the big leagues.

Future: Snider has a serious shot at being an Opening Day starter next season in either the OF or DH role. There was some talk he may be called up after the All-Star break as a result of Vernon Wells injury. Either way, he is not too far away from the big leagues.

Season Stock: Once he’s called up Snider will provide a lot of pop to a team willing to deal with his strikeouts. Snider is a bit of a risky keeper if he doesn’t fix his strikeout problem soon.

Round-Up and Preview

2008-07-13T08:37:00.000-05:00

Saturday Round-Up

Ryan Ludwick SPR: 3/5, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 runs, BB = 20 FP
Troy Glaus ZOU: 4/4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs, 2 BB = 17 FP
Kevin Youkilis SPR: 2/4, HR, 6 RBI, run = 17 FP
Jason Bay CRN: 2/5, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 runs, K = 17 FP
Ervin Santana CRN: W, 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K = 47.5 FP
Edinson Volquez HH: W, 7 IP, 6 H, ER, 2 BB, 10 K = 43.5 FP
Tim Wakefield SPR: W, 7 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 6 K = 37 FP
Rich Harden ZOU: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 10 K = 28.5 FP

Sunday Preview

Phantom Menaces and Halos Go For 500

In the race for the top overall seed, the Halos and Menaces need every point they can get. Each is looking to turn in the 5th and 6th 500 point weeks of the season. The Menaces needs 28 points this week to turn the trick. With Scott Kazmir starting against Cleveland one it would assume it would be a lock.

The Halos are looking for 60.5 point to hit 500 total points. Andrew will throw out four pitchers – CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Daniel Cabrera and Daisuke Matsuzaka – in an attempt to reach the milestone.

Krunk Smurfs Pass Milestone (For Now)

The Smurfs became the last team yesterday to surpass 4000 total points (4003.5). But with A.J. Burnett taking the mound (13 ER in last 12.1 IP) on just three days rest against the Yankees today, we should probably hold off the celebration for at least a day.

The Smurfs have recently indicated that a loss this week would likely lead to him selling off players. Jason is down by 321.5 points heading into Sunday.

Clemens’ Roid Needles Has Impressive Week

The team with the second fewest total fantasy points scored has a 150 point lead heading into Sunday against the second highest scoring team in the league. CRN is looking to draw within one game of the final playoffs spot – two games out of the three seed. Despite being outscored 4413.5 to 4409 coming into this week, CRN is 7-7 overall. Kyle needs a designated hitter, more production from Miguel Cabrera and B.J. Upton and better health from his team if he is going to stay in the race.

10-Loss Dynamite Upset Cockies

The Cockies took a blow to their playoff stability with a loss to 4-10 Boom Goes the Dynamite. The Dynamite head into Sunday with a 163.5 point lead over the fourth ranked Cockies. The assumed loss along with The Zou’s likely defeat makes the race for the final two playoff spots that much closer. It also expands the Halos division lead to three games. Joel has now lost two of the last three weeks and has matchups against KC, The Zou and Phantom Menaces lined up through the rest of July.

Baring a collapse, Boom Goes the Dynamite will have won three of he last for matchups, including a win over The Zou. His only loss came against the Phantom Menaces. Adam’s 391 points this week are the second most points he has scored the season and is the most he has scored since his week nine loss to KC. His next three matchups are against the Rasmus’, Inoculators and KC.

KC and the Inoculators Go Down to the Wire

A 27.5 point spread separates KC from the Inoculators heading into Sunday. A 14-point Joe Nathan save and a minus 19-point outing from Matt Garza was the difference in yesterday’s scoring. The Inoculators will send out Brandon Webb, Nick Blackburn, Ian Snell and Mike Pelfrey to counter KC’s Andy Pettitte. Here were all five pitcher’s results from earlier starts this week.

Andy Pettitte: W, 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 K vs TB
Brandon Webb: W, 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K vs WASH
Nick Blackburn: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 K vs BOS
Ian Snell: 3.2 IP, 4 H, ER, 3 BB, K vs HOU
Mike Pelfrey: W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K vs SF (was not on the Inoculators roster)

The Inoculators have scored 273 offensive points this week, far and away the most in the league through Saturday. The difference has been the pitching, scoring only 75 points this week. Now would be a good time for four good starts for the Inoculators who need a win to move within two games of the playoffs.

Letters to the Editor, Friday Round-Up and Saturday Preview

2008-07-12T08:00:00.001-05:00

Dear Editor,

My name is Roy Halladay and I hate Ben Nielsen. Why do I hate Ben Nielsen? Because I love to irrationally hate opposing fantasy owners. Additionally, I have no clue who Ben is – making it easier to hate him. I’m sure he’s a decent person and all, but I couldn’t even tell you what he looks like. It’s a lot easier to hate people when you don’t know who they are as a person. Nielsen has a guy like that: Anquan Boldin.

Anyway, I heard through the grapevine that I was on a team facing Nielsen this week so I decided to go out and two-hit those damned New York Yankees. That’s right, the Yankees. SOB’s. I thought I’d add a little pizazz to my shutout by striking out 8 damn Yankees. I figured this, plus the great start Matt Cain had, would effectively end that SOB Nielsen’s season. Then I found out the team I’m on didn’t start Cain. Fool.

Oh well, I’ve still put Nielsen’s playoff hopes in dire straights (Where that saying came from or how it is correctly spelled I have no idea). That’s all that can be asked of me.

Anyway, have a good day and f**k the damn Yankees!

***

Dear Editor,

Hi. I’m Randy Johnson and I’m here to screw over Ben Nielsen’s playoff chances. Last week , after losing six straight starts on purpose, I decided it was time – with Nielsen down by 2 million points – to have a one and a half million point game. Just a good enough start to force him to not cut me. I noticed early in the week that Nielsen’s been planning on not starting me this week to force me to put back-to-back starts together (Which I can’t do because 41,000-years-old!). Well I could not have that if my sole purpose for being in the Major Leagues is to ruin Nielsen’s fantasy team. So I gave my buddies Mark Buehrle and Roy Halladay a call to tell them I needed them to step up this week. They obliged of course because I'm effing Randy Johnson! They would have put back-to-back shutouts together if it weren’t for that pesky Mike Aviles fellow and his dog too. Anyway, now he’s forced to start me this week so my purpose in the Majors can still be fulfilled and finally retire in peace.

Have a good day and f*** Roger Clemens!

***

Dear Editor,

I’m Matt Cain and I’m trying to figure out why the hell I wasn’t started yesterday.

Have a good day and f*** the guy who traded me this week!

***

Friday Round-Up

Ronnie Belliard FA: 3-for-4, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 runs = 20 FP
Austin Kearns FA: 2-for-2, 2 BB, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 runs = 18 FP
Brian Roberts HH: 3-for-5, K, 2B, 3B, RBI, 2 runs, 2 SB = 17 FP
Jack Hannahan FA: 3-for-4, BB, HR, 3 RBI, 2 runs = 16 FP
Roy Halladay KC: W, 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, BB, 2 HBP, 8 K = 62 FP
Jake Peavy BSI: W, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 7 K = 41 FP
Luis Mendoza FA: W, 6 IP, 3 H, ER, BB, 8 K = 40.5 FP
Cliff Lee PCO: W, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, BB, 7 K = 38.5 FP

Saturday Preview

The Fat Lady Has Sung and Left the Building – Halos over Rasmus’ and Phantom Menaces over Smurfs

The Phantom Menaces have a serious shot at 500 points this week, which should eat into the Halos current 271 overall point lead. (PM leads the Halos 406.5 – 339 this week.)

One Bullet Avoided, One More to Go – ‘Roid Needles over The Zou

CRN avoided a massive point day for the Zou. Roy Oswalt left in the first inning with a hip injury; Joba Chamberlain’s six and two-thirds quality innings, seven strikeout performance turned into a loss because the Yankees couldn’t score; Oliver Perez gave up just one run in six innings and got a no-decision; Felix Hernandez gave up three runs in five innings, but struck out eight in a losing effort; Doug Davis turned in a par outing. All of this and The Zou still posted 49 pitching points for a 77 point day. The Zou sends out Rich Harden today while CRN counters with Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana and Seth McClung.

Sunday will be the real test for CRN when The Zou sends out Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Andrew Miller and possibly Jesus if he is recalled from AAA Pawtucket.

Upset of the Week – Boom Goes the Dynamite over Cockies

The Cockies will send four pitchers to the mound today: Pedro Martinez (vs. COL), Jesse Litsch (vs. the recently shutout Yankees), Todd “Freakin’” Wellemeyer (@ Pit) and Wandy Rodriguez (@ WASH). After typing these names, I feel more confident this upset is going to happen.

(Editor’s Note: I thought I would note the Cockies scored over 500 points last week against the Inoculators and have followed that up with a whopping 223.5 points this week. Yep, the Inoculators are cursed. Additionally, don’t you think it is funny I wrote an “Editor’s Note” even though I am the writer and (exceedingly terrible) editor of this here blog? I did. I’m sorry you didn’t. You should be laughing right now, but you’re not. This makes me sad. And, yes, I know you don’t care.)

Matchup of the Week – KC over Inoculators

The Inoculators scored 99 points yesterday and only managed to shave 5.5 points off of KC’s 20.5 point lead. The Inoculators will attempt to shave the remaining 15 points with help of starts from Matt Garza (@ CLE) and Randy Johnson (@ PHI). All of this will probably be for naught as Greg Maddux will probably throw a 27-strikeout perfect game for KC tonight. Figures.

Undrafted Keepers Thought, a Musical and Draft Results

2008-07-11T16:00:00.000-05:00

Kyle and I were talking about some of the league keeper rules when Kyle mentioned he wasn’t all for the rules as it relates to undrafted players noting that owners should be rewarded for pulling the trigger quickly on budding players. Part of me agrees with this idea. Another part of me is concerned about the competitiveness of the league. Overall, though, I do think a tweak could be made, so here is what I came up with.

Undrafted players would cost no less than a 15th round pick and no more than a 10th round pick. A tier system based on the amount of fantasy points scored would determine the round the undrafted player would be worth.

What do you think? Kyle liked the idea and I can sleep at night with this rule. Post your thoughts and comments on the blog.

***

This may be one of the greatest things I have read in quite some time. It was written by Ben Greenman of the New Yorker. Greenman writes a musical depicting the whole Madonna/AROD saga that has been going on. Great read. If you are not aware of such controversy, then read this.

***

After a little more research, I found that the draft results I posted a few days ago is riddled with errors. I also forgot that I posted a much cleaner version of the list in early April. Use that list instead of the recently posted one. I’ll likely re-post the list again as a reminder when the season comes closer to an end.

Thursday Round-up and Weekend Preview

2008-07-11T12:00:00.000-05:00

Thursday Round-up

Ken Griffey Jr.: 2-for-5, BB, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 runs = 18 FP
Howie Kendrick: 3-for-5, BB, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 runs, 2 K = 18 FP
Justin Morneau: 5-for-5, 2 2B, HR, RBI, 2 runs, BB = 16 FP
Fernando Tatis: 2-for-3, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, run = 16 FP
Dave Bush: W, 8 IP, 4 H, ER, 13 K = 59 FP
Dan Haren: 8 IP, 3 H, ER, 2 BB, 9 K = 35 FP
Zack Greinke: 7 IP, 6 H, ER, BB, 8 K = 29 FP
Jamie Moyer: W, 7 IP, 7 H, ER, 2 BB, 4 K = 23.5 FP

Weekend Preview

The Blowouts - Halos over Rasmus’ and Phantom Menaces over Smurfs

Both of the 11-3 teams are taking care of business against the 4-10 teams. This will be the Smurfs 9th loss in 10 weeks after starting 3-1.

Solid Lock, But… - ‘Roid Needles over The Zou

CRN leads The Zou by 138 points with three days left. Erik still has ten starts left over the next three days, including starts from Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, Roy Oswalt and Chad Billingsley. So anything can still happen in this matchup. Still, 138 points is a lot of ground to cover as long as CRN can post some decent numbers.

Upset of the Week - Boom Goes the Dynamite over Cockies

Boom Goes the Dynamite has an 81.5 point lead over the Cockies. The Cockies have four starts left from Gavin Floyd, Tim Redding, Jesse Litsch and Armando Galarraga. Barring a negative day or some huge starts from the four aforementioned pitchers, Dynamite should pull off the upset.

Anybody’s Game

Two good starts from Zack Greinke and Mark Buehrle and two bad starts from Andy Sonnanstine and Kevin Slowey have given KC the 223.5 to 203 edge heading into the weekend.

The Inoculators will send out Jake Peavy, Clay Buchholz and Manny Parra to try and stop the bleeding while KC will counter with Matt Cain and Roy Halladay. Crossover matchups include Cain versus Geovany Soto and Buchholz versus Adam Jones.

Playoff Implications (assuming scores hold up)

Halo and Menace wins coupled with a Zou loss means both the Halos and Phantom Menaces will have a two game cushion between them and one and two seeds. As of now, the Halos have the one seed because of total points.

A Zou loss makes them more vulnerable at the three seed, but not as vulnerable as the Cockies, who would only have a one game lead over CRN for the fourth and final playoff spot if scores hold up.

An Inoculators come back would put him only two games out of the final playoff spot. A loss means he remains three games back with time quickly running out.

My Love for Mike Aviles

2008-07-11T10:14:00.000-05:00

It was the bottom of the eighth inning and my fantasy prospects were doomed. Entering the day I had a 62.5 point lead and two solid pitchers starting. Then all hell broke lose. By the afternoon I was down 21.5 points after a terrible start from Kevin Slowey. This was then countered by 10-win Andy Sonnanstine blowing a 2-0 lead by giving up 6 runs in 5 innings. The loss sent my fantasy pitching total for the day to minus 50.5 and, at the time, my offense had produced a whopping 22 points.

On the other end KC had both Zack Greinke and Mark Buehrle pitching. The two through seven innings had combined for 53.5 points. The only earned run given up in the game was a solo home run by KC starting right fielder Jermaine Dye.

Buehrle came on in the eighth with a shutout still in tact. A shutout win for Buehrle would mean a 25 point net for KC. Greinke would get the loss, but he would also get the quality start. Buehrle would get the quality start, win and shutout. This would mean a 78.5 point pitching day for KC and a negative 50.5 pitching day for me. Throw in that both of our offenses were canceling each other out and suddenly KC is looking at a near 100 point lead heading into the weekend, sending my playoff chances spiraling down the drain. Life was grim.

Then Buehrle gave up a leadoff single to John Buck. Suddenly there was a glimmer of hope. Joey Gathright was going to (and did) pinch run for Buck, steal second and then let the hottest hitter with runners in scoring position drive him home. It was our only chance. Then, for some reason unknown to man, Gathright never attempted to steal. David DeJesus was ordered to bunt – twice. And DeJesus grounded into a double play – almost. A slightly wide throw to first went off of Paul Konerko’s glove and DeJesus was safe.

This brought up Aviles. Aviles was 0-3 with a three pitch strikeout. He wasn’t seeing Buehrle well at all. Nobody was seeing Buehrle well. And if David DeJesus couldn’t hit, nobody would.

Then it happened.

Aviles took the first pitch and ripped it down the left field line all the way to the wall allowing DeJesus to score from first. Aviles stood on second, as he has seemingly the entire time he’s been in the big leagues, clapping for yet another clutch game-tying hit.

I was clapping for a different reason. I feel the winds of change.

Harden Trade Not Good for Zou

2008-07-11T00:43:00.000-05:00

Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin traded to Cubs for SP Sean Gallagher, OF Matt Murton, OF/IF Eric Patterson and C Josh Donaldson

The trade of Harden to the Cubs means bad news for the Zou. While Harden is an excellent pitcher (when healthy) Wrigley Field is not a good place for him. I think Harden is bound for another injury this season because he will be overthrowing to keep the ball in the ball park. While this may be good for a start or two, Harden has proven his durability is not something to rely on. On the other hand, Harden could remain healthy and add to his massive strikeout numbers (10.75 K/9).

Chad Gaudin loses a lot of his value for the Phantom Menace’s. Gaudin has been moved the bullpen and has already struggled in Wrigley Field. Gaudin is not a big strikeout guy as it is so the Menace’s need to look for more pitching.

Sean Gallagher is a possible keeper option for the Rasmus’.

Eric Patterson is a free agent in our league who may be a guy someone desperate for keeper prospects picks up because of his speed. Matt Murton is also in the same boat, but for his power and not speed.

Josh Donaldson is a mediocre catching prospect who is in single-A at the moment. He is not in the fantasy picture at the moment.

Contender? Turning Over the Inoculator Roster in 24 Hours

2008-07-08T18:28:00.000-05:00

Trade now or forever hold your piece. This seems to be the motto for the “pretty much out of it, but still very much in it” Inoculators. Over the last 24 hours, the Inoculators roster has been almost entirely over-hauled. Here are his moves and analysis of them.

At 6-8, the Inoculators are walking a fine line between trying to get into the playoffs and accumulating keeper prospects. Whether or not he did that is yet to be seen, but early analysis says he did.

Grady Sizemore for Tim Hudson, Nick Blackburn and Dustin Pedroia

Grady Sizemore is the ninth highest scoring fantasy player in the league going to a team who needs some consistency. Sizemore is a career .282 hitter in the first half of the season and a .280 hitter in the second half. His power numbers are similar too, but it is unknown if he can keep up his AL leading home run pace. Sizemore will score runs and steal bases too. This is a good pick up for the Cockies.

The Inoculators probably could have (and should have) gotten more for Sizemore. Putting this trade in the context of all of the Inoculators moves makes the trade look better than what it really is. Tim Hudson is a very good fantasy pitcher, but not a great one. Then again, Hudson could end up being a huge addition for an Inoculators club desperate for big time pitchers. Hudson was 1-3 with a 7.17 ERA in inter-league play this year, masking the success he’s had in the National League this season. So far this season, Tim has posted an 8-3 record with a 1.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Given that interleague is finished, that is good news for the Inoculators.

Dustin Pedroia is a border line keeper pick. He can provide top three second baseman production and wasn’t drafted until the twelfth round. Pedroia’s strength is scoring runs and hitting for extra bases. Because the Red Sox lineup is so deep, Pedroia will also drive in plenty of runs.

Nick Blackburn is a guy who doesn’t walk people and puts up decent strikeout numbers. He’s a spot start guy, though.

Josh Hamilton and Brandon Webb for Jermaine Dye, James Loney, Mark Buehrle and Matt Cain

Losing the third rated centerfielder meant there was a huge gap to fill for the Inoculators. So the Inoculators traded for the top centerfielder in fantasy. Additionally, Hamilton is a great keeper prospect after being drafted in the seventeenth round.

The Inoculators then went out and picked up one of the top rated fantasy pitchers in Brandon Webb.

KC ended up getting two keeper prospects out of this in James Loney and Matt Cain. Loney is a young first baseman who is hitting .300 with 41 runs scored and 47 RBI on a team that can’t score runs. If the Dodgers can add some help around him next season, he’ll be a top five first baseman.

Matt Cain is a strikeout machine who gets zero run support. Cain has 112 strikeouts this season in 119 innings.

Mark Buehrle may also be an interesting keeper prospect despite his poor season.

Added J.J. Hardy, Ian Snell and David Price

J.J. Hardy is on fire and a possible keeper prospect. Hardy has 101 points in his last 15 games played. If the Inoculators are out if it officially at the end of the month, then Hanley Ramirez could be traded to add prospects allowing Hardy to fill in.

Ian Snell just returned from the DL and scouts are saying he is back to his old form (so does Snell). The Inoculators will find out quick as he starts tonight. Snell could provide a boost in the strikeout department and maybe steal a few wins.

David Price is the 10th rated prospect by Baseball America and is expected to be called up later this month or in early July. Many have said Price is the reason why the Rays did not trade for C.C. Sabathia. Price is 7-0 with a 1.68 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 53.2 innings this season in high-A and AA ball. Price was selected in the 25th round making him an excellent keeper prospect.

Activated Clay Buchholtz from DL

Clay Buchholtz will make his highly anticipated return to the big leagues Friday against the Baltimore Orioles. A big second half from him would be huge for the Inoculators.

If things were normalized...

2008-07-08T16:29:00.001-05:00

Andrew Wessley crunched some numbers today and found the following...

***

League Avg Score per week: 336pts

Record if playing against league average every week:

Would be playoff teams at this point:

COCK: 9-5 (DR = 0, DS = +3)*
Zou: 9-5 (DR = -1, DS = +1)*
HH: 8-6 (DR= -3, DS= -2)#
PCO: 8-6 (DR = -3, DS = -3)#

*Division Winner
#Wild Card

HH and PCO get playoff spots over BSI based on total points scored.
--------------------------------------------
The Rest:

BSI: 8-6 (DR = +2, DS= +2)
BGtD: 7-7 (DR= +3, DS= +1)
SPR: 6-8 (DR = +2, DS= 0)
CRN: 6-8 (DR=-1, DS= -2)
KC: 5-9 (DR= +1, DS= 0)
KS: 3-11 (DR= -1, DS= 0)

DR = Difference in Record
DS = Difference in Standings

Round-by-Round Draft That Will Be Used For Keepers

2008-07-08T01:49:00.000-05:00

First Round (These players cannot be kept):
David Wright
David Ortiz
Brandon Webb
Johan Santana
Brandon Phillips
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Zambrano
Alex Rodriguez
Grady Sizemore
Justin Mourneau

Second Round (These players cannot be kept):
Troy Tulowitzki
Hanley Ramirez
Carlos Lee
Michael Young
BJ Upton
Ryan Howard
Ichiro
Vladimir Guerrero
Mark Texiera
Carl Crawford

Round Three
Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Travis Hafner
John Lacky
Aramis Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Victor Martinez
Alex Rios
Felix Hernandez
Roy Oswalt

Round Four
John Smoltz
Jake Peavy
Derrek Lee
Manny Ramirez
Fausto Carmona
Joe Mauer
Dice K
Lance Berman
Garret Atkins
Derrek Jeter

Round five
Bobby Abreu
JJ Putz
Roy Halladay
Chipper Jones
Jimmy Rollins
Carlos Guillen
Tim Hudson
Alfonso Soriano
Adam Dunn
Yovani Gallardo

Round Six
Hunter Pence
Eric Burns
Jeff Francis
Chase Utley
Hideki Matsui
Chris Young
Adam Wainwright
Alex Gordon
Matt Holliday
Francisco Rodriguez

Round Seven
Carlos Pena
Miguel Tejada
Joe Nathan
Brian McCann
Takashi Saito
Brad Penny
Mike Lowell
Robinson Cano
Chone Figgins
Matt Kemp

Round Eight
Chad Billingsly
Matt Cain
Khalil Greene
Aaron Rowand
Ben Sheets
Brett Meyers
James Shields
Ian Kinsler
Javier Vazquez
Brad Hawp

Round Nine
Mariano Rivera
Torii Hunter
Adrian Gonzalez
Orlando Hudson
Chris B. Young
Francisco Liriano
Conner Jackson
Chien Ming Wang
Placido Polanco
Ryan Zimmerman

Round Ten
Gary Sheffield
Jim Thome
AJ Burnett
Jose Valverde
Pat Burrell
Billy Wagner
Johnny Damon
Adrian Beltre
Jorge Posada
Kelvim Escobar

Round Eleven
Justin Verlander
Pedro Martinez
Kenji Johjima
Gil Meche
John Maine
Francisco Cordero
Jered Weaver
Bobby Jenks
Geovany Soto
Jeremy Bonderman

Round 12
Kyle Kendrick
Phil Hughes
Brad Lidge
Billy Butler
James Loney
Dan Haren
Kevin Youkilis
Joe Blanton
Dustin Pedroia
Rich Hill

Round Thirteen
Todd Helton
Dustin McGowan
Zack Greinke
Jason Isringhausen
Cory Hart
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Kosuke Fukudome
Jason Varitek
Clay Buchholtz
Ivan Rodriguez

Round Fourteen Ian Snell
Houston Street
Greg Maddux
Al Reyes
Derrek Lowe
Raphael Soriano
Mark Buehrle
Dontrelle Willis
Ubaldo Jimenez
Olivar Perez

Round Fifteen
Rich Harden
Randy Johnson
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Kazmir
Brian Bannister
Jeff Francoeur
Jacoby Ellsbury
Joe Borowski
Jeremy Guthrie
John Lester

Round Sixteen
Vernon Wellls
Josh Beckett
Andy Pettitte
Jacque Jones
Micah Owings
Hiroki Kuroda
Shane Victorino
Juan Pierre
Homer Bailey
Mark Prior

Round Seventeen
Nick Swisher
Joakim Soria
Chad Cordero
Tom Gorzelanny
Magglio Ordonez
Dan Uggla
Edgar Renteria
Josh Hamilton
Coco Crisp
Bronson Arroyo

Round Eighteen
Shawn Marcum
Dave Bush
Andruw Jones
Jason Bay
Michael Bourn
Paul Konerko
JJ Hardy
Ty Wiggington
Evan Longoria
Jay Bruce

Round Nineteen
Joba Chamberlain
Matt Garza
Erik Bedard
Jeremy Accardo
Matt Capps
Delmon Young
Jorge Cantu
JD Drew
Michael Cuddyer
Manny Corpas

Round Twenty
Kelly Johnson
Barry Zito
David DeJesus
Frank Thomas
Todd Jones
Kevin Gregg
Melky Cabrera
Jeff Kent
Kerry Wood
Kevin Gregg
Melky Cabrera
Jeff Kent
Kerry Wood
Kevin Kouzmanoff

Round Twenty-one
Cole Hamels
Rickie Weeks
Johnny Cueto
Yorvit Torrealba
Curtis Granderson
Jack Cust
Chris Duncan
Chad Tracy
Rick Ankiel
Carlos Marmol

Round Twenty-two
Josh Fields
Jake Westbrook
Kevin Corria
Nate Robinson
Kyle Kendrick
Tony Pena
Aaron Cook
Jason Giambi
Jermaine Dye
Raphael Furcal

Round Twenty-three
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Adam Miller
Freddy Sanchez
Franklin Morales
Benji Molina
Colby Rasmus
Chris Sampson
Jhonny Peralta
Bartolo Colon

Round Twenty-four
Steven Drew
Brandon Lyon
Adam Jones
Hiroki Okajima
Tom Glavine
Ervin Santana
Scott Baker
Chuck James
JR Towels
Joey Votto

Round Twenty Five
David Price
Tim Wakefield
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Church
Kenny Rogers
Josh Willingham
Braden Looper
Jhonny Estrada
Ramon Hernandez
Daniel Cabrera

Round Twenty Six
Jon Garland
Pat Niechek
Jeff Suppan
Troy Glaus
Aubrey Huff
Lastings Millage
Hank Blaylock
Yunel Escobar
Brandon wood
Clayton Kershaw

Round Twenty Seven
Tim Lincecum*
Jair Jurjens
Andre Either
Cliff Lee
Gustavo Chachin
Ryan Garko
Albert Pujols*
Willie Blumquest*
Paul Byrd
Russell Martin**

Round Twenty Eight
CC Sabathia*
Carlos Delgado
Ted Lily*
Jose Reyes*
Mark Moulder
Shawn Hill
Aaron Harang*
Prince Fielder*
Ryan Braun*

*= player cannot be kept
**= player equals a 9th round keeper

HOT/cold: Second Base

2008-07-07T20:30:00.000-05:00

HOT: Second Base

Mark Ellis FA
P15 = 60

Mark Ellis is 1 for his last 15 with one RBI… and he’s still in the Top 10. That’s either really impressive or a really bad sign for the depth of second basemen.

Chase Utley PM
P15 = 61

For as much hype as Utley has been getting, and deservedly so, he is only the second rated second baseman in the league – and a decent margin too.

Ronnie Beliard FA
P15 = 61

Ronnie is riding a recent power surge that includes a walk-off home run on July 1. For the season, Belliard is hitting .215 with 7 home runs and 25 RBI.

Mark DeRosa HH
P15 = 64

DeRosa has 51 runs scored and 49 runs driven in this season. This is helping compensate for his mediocre batting average and power.

Ray Durham FA
P15 = 64

Ray Durham has to be 50-years-old. Durham has scored 40 runs this year, but has been unable to drive runs in and hit with power.

B.J. Upton CRN
P15 = 66

Upton will be an interesting player to watch next season because he will no longer be second base eligible. His 56 runs scored, 44 RBI and 26 stolen bases are very appealing at second base, but not so much in centerfield, which is where he’ll be eligible next season.

Brian Roberts HH
P15 = 77

Roberts has used a series against the Royals and Rangers to build up his run and hit totals. He was 8-for-25 with 8 runs scored. Despite his home run yesterday, hit power numbers are starting to trail off as has his RBI numbers.

Brandon Phillips BGtD
P15 = 86

Brandon is 13-for-27 with 9 RBI in his seven games. Sadly, he only scored 4 runs with one home run in that stretch.

Dustin Pedroia COCK
P15 = 96

Pedroia had 11 hits in six games last week and scored 6 runs.

Ian Kinsler KC
P15 = 108

Ian Kinsler is the number one rated second baseman in the league by about 50 points. Kinsler has scored 79 runs, driven in 53 and stolen 23 bases on the season. His 14 home runs and .332 batting average are nice too. He was 7-for-12 with five runs scored, a homer and three RBI against Baltimore this past weekend.

COLD: Second base

Dan Uggla BGtD
P15 = 8

Yunel Escobar KS
P15 = 10

Erick Aybar KS
P15 = 26

Placido Polanco BSI
P15 = 36

Orlando Hudson SpR
P15 = 37

5 Suggestions for Next Season

2008-07-07T14:02:00.000-05:00

The following is a list of five things (in reverse order) of suggestions I have for next season. Let me know what your thoughts are by commenting on the post or on the league page. Whatever you like to do best.

***

Suggestion #5: Removing the DH position and adding the Utility Player position.

People seem to want this. I don’t know why. I mean, where else can you find a league where Kevin Millar is valuable? Oh, wait, I see your point.

Suggestion #4: Adding two more active relief pitcher spots, but keeping the roster size at 28.

The idea of this is for these spots not to be filled by closers (though they can be), but to be places where Ron Mahay and Carlos Marmol can thrive (the “hold” statistic would also be added). Additionally, this should reduce the amount of starting pitchers on a team by two, making spot starters more available and reducing starts in general. This is not to say there is not a way to manipulate the system, but I think it is something that will add depth.

Suggestion #3: Write to, call, picket, e-mail, throw things at and kick ESPN in the shins until they allow leagues to separate the point values of a starting pitcher and relief pitchers.

I know there are some complaints about the scoring system for pitchers, but here is the reality: The inability to separate point values for starting and relief pitchers makes if virtually impossible to accurately change the point system. Now, this is not to say the problem isn’t being worked on, but to suggest that until ESPN allows each league to separate the two, it will never be perfect.

Suggestion #2: Allow undrafted players to be kept.

This should be no problem. Here is my current proposal (that is probably going to happen):

A) All keeper prospects will be turned in on a agreed upon date. If an owner sends in a list with an undrafted player on it, they should also send write in a “conditional player” per undrafted player (more on this forthcoming).
B) An undrafted keeper cannot be worth less than a 15th round pick or more than a third round pick.
C) The value will be voted on.
D) The rounds will be determined based on the value of the player, which will be determined by the average ranking the player receives in the ESPN, Yahoo and [yet to be named publication} rankings. That round, plus the round above it and below it will be the three rounds voters have to choose from. (If any of this doesn’t make sense, e-mail me or call me.)
E) All of these votes will be conducted immediately after keepers lists are turned in.
F) After the vote has taken place, the owner who has selected the undrafted keeper has 48 hours to confirm he is keeping said player or choosing instead to keep his corresponding “conditional player.”

Basically the idea is this – we vote on the round the guy is worth, if you don’t like it, you can keep someone else instead assuming you tell me within a couple of days after the vote. Have any questions, additions, subtractions, multiplications or a deeply held grievance? E-mail me.

Suggestion #1: Allow five keeper prospect per team.

Hopefully we can add a keeper slot or two (depending on what we feel is necessary) every year to allow everyone’s team to feel like their own. This also helps make the draft THAT much shorter (which is a good thing).

WIR and Pretender/Contender

2008-07-07T08:58:00.000-05:00

Quick Week in Review

Inoculators vs. Cockies:

Well, someone decided to randomly go off for 500+ points. The Cockies scored 280.5 points in a three day span to blow out the Inoculators. Gavin Floyd (?!) led the way for the Cockies with 71.5 points, while Matt Holliday posted 65 points.

Phantom Menaces vs. Boom Goes the Dynamite:

The Phantom Menaces continued their dominance with a victory this week. The Dynamite pitching staff was only able to put up 74 points, which gave PM the victory.

Krunk Smurfs vs. KC:

The Smurfs finally won for the first time since late April. Yikes!

The Zou vs. Rasmus’s:

The Zou was the benefactor of a mere 65 points from the Rasmus’ pitching staff to gain the win this week. In other news, I hate the Zou.

Hancock’s Halos vs. Clemens’ Roid Needles:

The Halos remain in first place with a come from behind win by a mere 15.5 points over CRN. HH got 17 points from Brian Roberts and 38.5 points from John Danks Sunday in the comeback. The Halos won despite even though the pitching staff scoring only 68.5 points.

Contender or Pretender

Hancock’s Halos (11-3)
Points For: 5255
Points Against: 4068
Playoff Chances: 80%

A lot is going right for the Halos. He leads the league in points scored and is tied for the most wins in the league.

There are, however, several kinks in the armor. The Halos are in the bottom half of the league in runs, doubles, home runs and RBI. Two of his top three offensive producers (Russell Martin and Brian Roberts) are poor second half players, hitting under .275 with reduced power and speed numbers. Rumors of a Mark Teixeira deal to the LAAAAAAA may kill Casey Kotchman’s playing time. Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu are each mired in the worst seasons of their careers. And Vernon Wells has yet to return to he pre-DL form for the last place Blue Jays.

The strength of the Halos team, the pitching, is also becoming a concern. Edison Volquez is setting a career high for innings every time he pitches and it is showing. Volquez last six starts he has a 4.54 ERA with 16 walks and 35 hits and reduced strikeout numbers (25 Ks over six starts with 9 coming in one start) in 35.2 innings pitched. You also have to wonder when the Reds will start shutting him down.

Justin Verlander’s latest success may also be a flash in the pan. His last four starts have been against the @ Padres, @ Giants, vs Rockies and @ Mariners. All teams struggling to score. His walk numbers have also been terrible (3 walks or more in 10 of 18 starts). Verlander has also thrown over 500 innings over the last two and half seasons. When looking at his walk numbers and innings, you’ve got to wonder how long he can hold up for the rest of this season.

His best pitcher of late has been John Danks. Yep. Daisuke Matsuzaka has terrible walk issues and is very inconsistent. Ubaldo Jimenez is a walking fantasy headache (I know, because I owned him for most of the season). Kelvim Escobar will not return off the DL as a starter and you’ve got to wonder what Shaun Marcum will be like when he returns from the DL as well.

Additionally, the Halos have had the fewest points scored against them in the league. Opponents are averaging less than 300 points (290.5 points) per week. At some point the Halos opponents are going to score points. Will the Halos be able to hold up to that?

Phantom Menaces (11-3)
Points For: 4984
Points Against: 4373.5
Playoff Chances: 75%

The Phantom Menaces have scored the third most points and allowed the second fewest points. This leads to some of the same questions the Halos are dealing with when it comes to when opponents start scoring more points.

PM looks to be good on offense. Chase Utley may be this year’s NL MVP. Mark Teixeira is crushing the ball. Manny Ramirez now being eligible as a DH will open up more time for Kosuke Fukudome. Catching is an issue for PM.

Pitching is the major issue for PM. Outside of Cliff Lee, things are shaky in the starting staff. Carlos Zambrano just returned from the DL (and had a very good start), but has been very inconsistent all season. Scott Kazmir strikes out people, but also walks a ton of people and has had issues getting beyond the fifth inning. After that, everything is up for grabs.

What he does have going for him are his closers, who make up one of if not the best tandem in the league.

The Zou (10-4)
Points For: 5061
Points Against: 4747
Playoff Chances: 75%

The Zou needs offense. BADLY. He does have a deep rotation with six starting pitchers with 200 or more points.

What’s going to make or break his season is selectively choosing which pitchers he trades for offense. The wrong combination could spell doom for him quickly, but it could also mean a championship.

Cockies (8-5)
Points For: 4795.5
Points Against: 4502.5
Playoff Chances: 65%

The Cockies list of no-name pitchers has given the fourth best record in the league. There are no pitchers on his roster with more than 200 points, but he does have six pitchers with more than 200. Of course, this does not mean there are plenty of question marks with his rotation.

First there are the list of unknowns: Justin Duchscherer, Armando Galarraga and Gavin Floyd. How these three hold up. Duchscherer has never throw over 100 innings in his career. This is Galarraga’s rookie season as a 26-year-old. This is also the first season Floyd has gone over 100 innings pitched (previous high was 70 innings). Floyd had an ERA of 4.90 in 64 second half innings last year.

Second there are the 200 guys: Javier Vazquez and ERA of 6.38 in his last six starts and has seen an increase in walks. Josh Beckett is coming off his first back-to-back seasons of 200 innings pitched plus the playoffs. Tim Hudson is either shutting people down or giving up six runs in a start. Ryan Dempster hasn’t thrown over 100 innings since 2003.

The Cockies offense is pretty good, but probably needs an upgrade at catcher.

Clemens Roid Needles (7-7)
Points For: 4409
Points Against: 4413.5
Playoff Chances: 55%

The CRN lineup has issues at catcher, right field and designated hitter. His pitching staff, outside of Ben Sheets and Ervin Santana (who is cooling off slightly) has absolutely nothing on it. Who knows what a Francisco Liriano return will bring (he had a good rehab outing yesterday), but he alone isn’t going to be enough.

CRN should consider trading Pat Burrell or Jason Bay for added pitching if he wants to stay in the playoff hunt.

Inoculators (6-8)
Points For: 4969.5
Points Against: 4933
Playoff Chances: 50%

Inoculator opponents are averaging 352.5 points per matchup and have scored fewer than 300 points in a matchup twice. Once was week two when the Zou scored 291 point and the other instance was week 12 when the Smurfs put up 183.5 points. The point being that, at some point, people are going to stop have massive weeks every week they play the Inoculators. If the Inoculators had the points against fortune of CRN, who is in the middle of the pack in points against, the Inoculators would be between 9-5 and 11-3.

The Inocluators biggest roster need is a dominate pitcher. None of the Inoculator pitchers have over 260 points. Jake Peavy’s injury hurt, as has the Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz injuries and demotions. The Inoculators need one or two pitchers to make a run at the last playoff spot.

Rasmus’s (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

Boom Goes the Dynamite (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

KC (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

Smurfs (4-10)
Playoff Chances: 5%

(See: Bottom Feeders)

Bottom Feeders:

The Smurfs, BGtD, Rasmus’ and KC all have assets the contending teams need to make the playoffs. Smart dealing could land some serious keeper prospects (See: “5 (or 6) Fantasy Players that Ought to be Traded This Week” blog post)and put them as front runners next season. Keep in mind that both the Halos and Cockies were the two worst teams in the league last year and are now serious playoff contenders.

Sabathia (possible) Trade Fantasy Ramifications

2008-07-06T19:49:00.000-05:00

It has been reported that deal sending C.C. Sabathia to Milwaukee for Brewers prospects –centered around Matt LaPorta – could be done at any second, if it’s not done already.

Since it sounds like this is going to happen, I thought I’d give my thoughts on the fantasy impact this may have on Sabathia and LaPorta.

C.C. Sabathia SP
Line in Milwaukee: 0-1, 4.15 ERA, 13 IP, 4 BB, 16 K
Line vs St. Louis: 1-0, 4.63 ERA, 11.2 IP, 3 BB, 8 K
Line vs Chicago: 0-1, 34.71 ERA, 2.1 IP, 2 BB, 2 K
Line vs Pittsburgh: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 22 IP, 6 BB, 21 K
Line vs Cincinnati: 3-0, 2.26 ERA, 51.1 IP, 17 BB, 55 K
Line vs Houston: N/A
Line in NL: 12-6, 3.74 ERA, 190 IP, 166 H, 59 BB, 167 K

Obviously, these are very small samples so not too much should be taken from this. What may mean something is what Sabathia did against the NL this season (2-0, 1.57 ERA, 23 IP, 4 BB, 31 K and one 440 foot home run). Sabathia dominated and seemed to get his season back on track after a very slow start.

There is every reason to believe Sabathia will make a smooth transition to the NL and produce at a slightly higher level (facing the pitching spot three times a game should mean added strike outs). His situation is also a lot different from the one Johan Santana entered. Unlike Santana, Sabathia could still be a free agent at the end of the season (Santana already signed a massive contract) and will be playing in a relatively small market (New York ain’t so small). The pressures of winning for the Brewers are not going to be the same as they are with the Mets, noting the media market and the Brewers window is opening – not closing.

The only down side may be all the beer and brauts in Milwaukee, which could add to Sabathia’s weight problems.

Sabathia should be as dominate, if not more, after this trade, which should make the Halos one happy camper.

Matt LaPorta OF
Career Minor League Line: (112 G, 411 AB) .294/.395/.616 SLG – 32 HR, 97 RBI, 32 2B, 2 3B, 52 BB, 92 K

That. Is. Sexy.

Ladies, if you’re looking for a keeper prospect, here you go (but don’t go scurrying for him now because he isn’t in the system). LaPorta has tremendous hitting and power potential. His plate disciple is very good. He has made one error in the 98 games he has played in the outfield which means one of two things: a) he is a really good defender, or b) the ball doesn’t get hit to him very often.

The majority of his 411 AB have come at the AA level (296 AB), where he is hitting a weak .291/.404/.584 with 20 HR and 66 RBI. Let’s just say the guy has serious potential.

What this trade does in speed up the process in which LaPorta will make the big leagues. The Indians are starved for power and have both corner outfield positions available. While LaPorta probably won't come up until September at the earliest, it does give everyone the opportunity to pick him up as a possible keeper candidate at the end of the season.

On a side note, the Royals chose Mike Moustakas (.241/.303/.405) over LaPorta in last year’s draft. Though it should be noted that Moustakas is 19 and LaPorta is 23.

The All-Draft-Day Team

2008-07-06T15:04:00.000-05:00

Erik has been kind enough to grace this league's blog with thoughts of his own (how cute!). Erik (of The Zou fame) breaks down his All-Draft Team in his first post of the season. His words (mostly) after the jump.

***

Note: Keepers and free agent pick-ups couldn’t be selected. This accounts for the omission of first-half studs like Volquez, Quentin and McLouth. Also, the exact rounds players were drafted might be off by a round or two as I took them from our league’s draft results page that is slightly skewed because of keepers.

Editors Note: Erik's blog reminds me that I need to post the actual draft transcript so that people are aware of keepers and such. I'll post that later this week.

C – Bengie Molina – BGTD – 22nd Round – Currently the fifth best catcher in our league

1B – Jason Giambi – Krunk Smurfs – 21st – Ranks eighth among first basemen after recent surge

2B – Ian Kinsler – Springfield KC – 9th – Utley is amazing and Kinsler has outscored him by FORTY points … I guess that’s how the Mizzou guys play

3B – Aubrey Huff – BGTD – 25th – Picked in the 25th round and yet he’s in one of the top five third basemen so far

SS – Yunel Escobar – Krunk Smufs – 25th – Only the 11th- best shortstop, but the first not to be a high draft pick or free-agent pick-up

LF – Jason Bay – Springfield Rasmus’s – 20th – Of the four best LF’s, two were undrafted and one (Bay) was taken in the 20th round

CF – Josh Hamilton – Springfield KC – 18th – Possibly the steal of the draft as Hamilton has hit over .300 with 19 HR and 80+ RBI

RF – JD Drew – Springfield KC – 20th – Springfield KC is starting to take over this list and controls three of the top five RF’s. Wanna trade?

SP – Cliff Lee – Phantom Menaces – 28th – Sorry Hamilton, this is the steal of the draft so far SP – Ervin Santana – Clemens’ Roid Needles – 27th – It almost hurts to see what players were there when I passed them up for the likes of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Prior, etc.
SP – Rich Harden – Zou – 17th – He will now proceed to break his pinky finger and be out for the remainder of the year
SP – Shaun Marcum – Hancock’s Halos – 21st – So he’s hurt right now … still wouldn’t mind getting 259 points from my 21st round pick in the first half of the season
SP – John Lester – Hancock’s Halos – 18th – He’s been good, but two amazing starts have propelled him to top-30 status among starting pitchers … why did you drop him again?

RP – Joakim Soria – Inoculators – 18th – An ERA under 1.50, a WHIP under 0.75 and 23 first-half saves on a bad team
RP – Kerry Wood – Inoculators – 21st – Hey Ben, you wanna draft my relief pitchers next year?

Fantasy Ownwer Rips Team in Media (via The Onion)

2008-07-04T16:49:00.000-05:00

BROOKLYN, NY—Mark Mendicus, 26-year-old Staples employee and principal owner of the fantasy baseball team Beat With Uggla Stick, blasted his underperforming team in the media Monday, going so far as to single out individual players, criticize their recent play, and question their commitment to winning.

"They all suck," a visibly frustrated Mendicus told reporters following Beat With Uggla Stick's head-to-head 8-2 loss to division rivals The Mark Currys. "[Alex] Rios sucks, Delmon [Young] sucks, Pedro [Martinez] fucking sucks. Everybody on my team sucks."

"The Beat With Uggla Sticks have a proud tradition of winning," continued Mendicus, whose team has made the playoffs the past two years, including a league championship win in 2006. "But apparently that means nothing to this group of players. Apparently they'd rather just lose every single 5x5 category. Apparently my players don't care about winning the 12-team Yahoo! Plus 'Mmm…Fantasy Baseball' league pennant as much as I do."

Mendicus had high expectations for his team coming into the season, but his players have been plagued by injuries and inconsistency, losing six of their first eight matchups en route to a 22-46-14 overall record. The historically temperamental owner did not hold back his opinions after their latest humiliating defeat, telling the New York Post that Prince Fielder "had better start hitting some fucking home runs already" before making several vicious personal attacks on the first baseman, calling him a "fatass," a "fat bastard," and a "fat fuck" in the course of one statement.

"I paid $38 for [Fielder], and this is what I get?" Mendicus said, directing reporters' attention to Fielder's "putrid" Yahoo! Game Log. "Twelve home runs. Twelve goddamn home runs. When you pay $38 for a guy, you had better give them a hell of a lot more than 12 home runs through the first half. I got you for your power, buddy, not your walks. This is a batting average league, anyway, not an on-base percentage league, so walks don't fucking matter. It's like these guys don't understand that."

Mendicus continued his heated rant, calling shortstop Felipe Lopez a "talentless hack whose multiple position eligibility is the only thing saving his ass from waivers," claiming that pitcher Ian Snell is "killing [him] in WHIP, absolutely killing [him]," and encouraging outfielder Brad Hawpe to "go eat shit." He then accused the whole team of not stealing enough bases and "not playing like true Beat With Uggla Sticks."

He did, however, reserve some praise for hot-hitting second baseman Dan Uggla upon learning that Uggla homered twice that day, saying, "That's you, Danny."

With his team already down 9-1 in this week's matchup against Gary Sheffield's Head Vein, Mendicus issued an ultimatum, claiming that unless his team delivers at least a tie, there will "be some changes around here." Mendicus said that "no one is safe," and had particularly strong words for pitcher Chris Young, who three weeks ago was hit in the face with a line drive and has not made a single start since.

"Toughen up, you little baby," Mendicus said. "You don't throw with your face, do you? I already got Phil [Hughes] in the DL slot, so you better get your ass back in action."

Mendicus has a reputation for following his players' performance with intense scrutiny and personal investment, often to a fanatical degree. It is rumored that he monitors their progress on multiple Yahoo! Sports box score windows on his computer screen, and will erupt into obscenity-laden tirades at work after a mere groundout or caught stealing.

"Fuck you Edwin, you good-for-nothing piece of shit," Mendicus was overheard as saying while angrily clicking the "Refresh" button on his web browser 14 times after pitcher Edwin Jackson loaded the bases with three straight walks. "Throw the ball over the goddamn plate. I need a win here, you idiot. I'm getting killed in wins."

For some players on Mendicus' team, the demand for instant results, the constant threats to be released or traded, and the nonstop verbal abuse is too much. Pitcher Jeremy Guthrie has been dropped and picked up by Mendicus seven times already this season, and he says he doesn't like playing under such volatile conditions.

"I wish he'd have a little faith in me," Guthrie said. "I don't like being picked up the night before my start and then simply dropped the next day. It wears on you as a player. And now I have to explain myself to my kids when they read in the papers that their daddy is a 'shit-for-brains asshole who can't even get five strikeouts when that's all we needed to win the category.'"

"I'm sorry, but when I have runners on first and third and one out, I'm going to go for the double play to get out of the inning, not the strikeout," Guthrie added. "Even though they don't give out 'points' for double plays."

Some players, however, praised Mendicus for his fiery attitude and desire to win, saying they prefer that to the kind of owners who treat their fantasy teams like nothing more than a fun distraction from their real jobs.

"It's good that he cares," said Beat With Uggla Stick catcher Jorge Posada. "Some owners, like Garrett Baldwin of the Smilin' Joe Randas, or Mike Broberg of Tiny Damon, they just sort of check in every once in a while to see how we're doing, but that's it. In fact, I've been on the Tiny Damon's bench since I went on the DL in April, and they don't even have anyone in the catcher slot. That's just shoddy ownership."

"But there's also a thing called caring too much," Posada added. "You can only be called a worthless shitbag after popping out so many times before it starts to sting. It's at the point where playing for Mendicus is almost as bad as playing for Hank Steinbrenner."

***

You've got to love the genius of The Onion. Beautiful people. Have a good fourth of July.

5 (or 6) Fantasy Players that Ought to be Traded This Week

2008-07-03T20:53:00.000-05:00

Dan Haren BGtD

I hate to break it to you Dynamite, but, uh, your season is over. At the moment, Dan Haren doubles as your best player and your only real keeper prospect (will be a 12th round keeper if kept this season). If Adam plays his cards right, he could turn Haren into two or three very good keeper prospects and boost his chances for next season.

Should be Interested Teams: All playoff contenders

Win/Loss for the BGtD: Win is his team could become a much more formidable team in 2009 with the right trade. The loss is that his pitching staff is going to absolutely suck without Haren.

Alex Rodriguez KS

There are several reasons the Smurfs should trade ARDO. First, the Smurfs are flirting with obtaining the first overall pick in next year’s draft. AROD cannot be kept this season because he was a first round pick. If the Smurfs pull of a good trade, he could end up getting three solid keepers plus take AROD with the first overall pick next season – essentially trading AROD in order to get AROD back for 2009 and two or three keepers. Second, as mentioned earlier, the Smurfs suck and are competing for nothing at this point. Third, AROD has tremendous value to teams trying to get into the playoffs and win the league. Who really doesn’t want AROD? Kyle (only because he’s an idiot)?

Should be Interested Teams: All Playoff Contenders

Win/Loss for the Smurfs: Win is that he can gain more potential keepers and still get AROD in the draft next year. Loss is he will lose AROD’s production for the rest of the season.

Rich Harden ZOU

Two teams that need pitching and are in the playoff hunt are the Phantom Menaces and the Inoculators. PM may need it more in that they are in the bottom half of the league in wins, strikeouts and quality starts. Trading some offensive depth to a hitting starved Zou team may be beneficial for both parties.

Should be Interested Teams: Inoculators and Phantom Menaces

Win/Loss for the ZOU: Win is that Harden could get hurt the day he trades him away. The loss is the two teams that need pitching the most are in the same division as him.

Milton Bradley COCK

As has been documented all season, everyone needs a DH. So badly do teams need a DH, they may overspend to obtain the number one DH in fantasy. The Cockies, who are on the edge of playoffs or no playoffs, need added pitching depth badly (whether he knows or feels that way is unknown). What the Cockies have is a very solid lineup that can deal with middle of the road production for the DH slot. If he trades Bradley to a contending team for pitching, he could be helping him self in multiple ways.

Should be Interested Teams: All playoff contenders

Win/Loss for COCK: The win for the Cockies is he can gain the pitching he needs to make a serious playoff run. The loss is he will lose Bradley’s production and the pitching he trades for may not pan out.

Joe Mauer BGtD / Brian McCann SpR

Three teams, two catchers. Let the bidding begin. Both teams are out of the playoff chase and should be looking towards next season. Three teams vying for two catchers should promote good trading conditions for BGtD and SpR.

On a side note, imagine what BGtD could get in return if he packaged Dan Haren and Joe Mauer together. I’d say he could get some solid return on his investment as nearly every team, except maybe the Halos, are in dire need of a catcher and starting pitcher.

Should be Interested Teams: Phantom Menaces, Cockies and Zou

Win/Loss for both teams: The win is the keeper prospects each team can get. The loss is they lose the production of two excellent catchers.

GFSP, Morning After and Daily Preview

2008-07-03T09:55:00.000-05:00

Great Fantasy Seasons of the Past - Jimmie Foxx (1932)

Jimmie Foxx is a three-time MVP and two-time World Series Champion. He’s also a Hall of Famer. Foxx also managed to up one heck of a fantasy season in 1932. Here are his numbers:

1B – 113 (113)
2B – 33 (66)
3B – 9 (27)
HR – 58 (116)
R – 151 (302)
RBI – 169 (338)
SB – 3 (9)
CS – 7 (-7)
K – 96 (-96)
BB – 116 (232)
HBP – 0

Fantasy Points: 1100

At the moment, Lance Berkman leads all fantasy players with 527 points. If he keeps that pace up, he’ll still fall short of Foxx’s 1932 season (but still be pretty freaking close).

An additional note about Jimmie Foxx. To put into perspective how good Foxx was, here is Baseball-Reference’s list of 10 statistical comparable players:

Lou Gehrig (871)*
Ted Williams (866)*
Mel Ott (802) *
Mickey Mantle (801) *
Frank Thomas (800)
Ken Griffey (777)
Frank Robinson (769) *
Gary Sheffield (762)
Manny Ramirez (761)
Jeff Bagwell (742)

* = Hall of Famer

I imagine that Thomas, Griffey and Ramirez will all be first ballot Hall of Famers. Bagwell should be, but who knows. Gary Sheffield may have problems because of his alleged use of performance enhancing drugs, but he still deserves to get in. Not too shabby of a comp list, eh?

Wednesday Round-Up

Jason Giambi: 2-for-4, HR, 2B, HBP, 6 RBI, 2 runs = 22 FP
Grady Sizemore: 3-for-4, 2 HR, BB, 2 RBI, 4 runs, SB = 22 FP
Alex Rodriguez: 2-for-3, HR, 2 BB, 3 RBI, 4 runs = 21 FP
Dustin Pedroia: 4-for-5, HR, 2 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 3 runs = 19 FP
Ricky Nolasco: W, 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, HBP, 8 K = 39.5 FP
Nick Blackburn: W, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, BB, 4 K = 33 FP

Thursday Preview

In what may be the most pathetic, yet intriguing match-up of the season thus far, the Zou and Rasmi are tied going into play Thursday, 67 all. Now that’s production, baby. Editors note: The score is now 67-59, which makes it less intriguing.

The Cockies lead all teams is scoring this week with 205 points and hold the biggest lead (44 points) going into today. Of course, he’s doing this against the most unlucky team in the league, the Inoculators.

The Smurfs are on the road to breaking their eight week losing streak as they hold a 31 point lead over KC. I smell a comeback from KC.

The Halos did not fall into oblivion, but did not pull away from CRN despite starting four pitchers to CRN’s zero. This match-up, like everyone else this week, could come down to the wire.

Boom Goes the Dynamite is trying to pull off the biggest upset of the year by taking out PM. BGtD is down 28.5 points going into today and has a Dan Haren start against San Diego coming up on the Fourth of July.

Ten Hottest Eligable First Baseman

2008-07-02T21:34:00.000-05:00

Carlos Delgado FA
P15 = 63

The nine RBI game really helped him in cracking the top 10, but don’t you think a guy who had a nine RBI game would be a little higher on the top 10? I think this tells you how inconsistent and unproductive Delgado has been this season.

Justin Morneau CRN
P15 = 65

Morneau seems to finally finding his swing that won him an MVP two years ago.

Derrek Lee KS
P15 = 66

Derrek Lee has three triples this season. That stunned me.

Alex Gordon KC
P15 = 67

He’s an everyday third baseman, but he has first base eligibility which is why he is on this list.

Ross Gload FA
P15 = 67

Take note of this Mr. Gload, because you’ll never be here again.

Eric Hinske COCK
P15 = 69

Everybody on the Rays is hot. Even they guy who I remember most for playing with the Blue Jays.

Aubrey Huff BGtD
P15 = 75

It should be noted that Huff was once a Ray. Just saying.

Lance Berkman KC
P15 = 76

Berkman has scored 74 (!) runs this season. Peter Gammons believes he could have a legitement shot at winning the Triple Crown as long as Chipper Jones stays healthy (the assumption being Jones playing everyday hurts his batting average). Oh, and scratch that part from a few posts ago when I said Berkman was cooling off. Oops.

Nick Swisher FA
P15 = 78

He had two grand slams in a week. That will help you “On Fire!” stock.

Mark Teixeira PCO
P15 = 88

Teixeira will be a free agent at the end of this year. How much would you pay him to be on your team? At the moment, PM doesn’t pay anything. I think he should be forced to.

***

Feel free to comment on these blogs. I promise they don’t bite.

The Chiefs are Stupid.

2008-07-02T15:22:00.000-05:00

This has nothing to do with fantasy baseball, but have you read THIS ARTICLE RIGHT HERE about the Kansas City Chiefs BANNING STANDING at Chiefs games this season???

Now, you can insert some joke about there is nothing much to stand for except to leave when it comes to Chiefs games, but it the principle of the matter. The Chiefs have gone as far as to SET UP A TEXT MESSAGING SYSTEM so that upset fans can ANONYMOUSLY TATTLE ON FANS WHO ARE STANDING AND CHEERING (or breaking other rules). How bogus is this? Unbelievable.

Sinners!!!!

Throw this kid out!!!!

THROW THIS ENTIRE SECTION OUT!!!

What an abomination to the term "human-being." Get my phone so I can text the Chiefs and tell them how retarded they are for allowing this fan in. Standing during a game? Unbelievable!!!

8 Fantasy Days, Tuesday Round-up, Wednesday Matchup of the Day

2008-07-02T14:29:00.000-05:00

Eight REALLY nice fantasy days...

Carlos Delgado (9-25-2003)
Line: 4-for-4, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 4 runs
Fantasy Points: 28

Fun Fact: Carlos Delgado had a streak of 10-straight seasons of at least a 127 OPS+ snapped in 2007 when he put up a 103 OPS+.

Shawn Green (5-23-2002)
6-for-6, 4 HR, 2B, 7 RBI, 6 runs
Fantasy Points: 36

Fun Fact: ESPN cannot talk about him without mentioning that he is a Jew. It’s in his contract (not really).

Mike Cameron (5-2-2002)
4-for-5, 4 HR, HBP, 4 RBI, 4 runs
Fantasy Points: 26

Fun Fact: Mike Cameron was on Guys Go Wild. Or he just rode a bull for a charity breast cancer event. I don’t know.

Mark Whiten (9-7-1993)
4-for-5, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 4 runs
Fantasy Points: 40

Fun Fact: I forgot Mark Whiten existed.

Bob Horner (7-6-1986)
4-for-5, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 4 runs
Fantasy Points: 28

Fun Fact: Bob Horner was not employed as a farmer or truck driver at any point in his life. Shocking, I know.

Mike Schmidt (4-17-1976)
5-for-6, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 4 runs
Fantasy Points: 32

Fun Fact: George Brett was a better player than Mike Schmidt. No argument. Clear win for Brett. Ignore Schmidt’s 500 plus home runs and multiple gold glove – he played in the inferior National League (even though the National League was really good back then). Brett was better!!!

Willie Mays (4-30-1961)
4-for-5, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 4 runs
Fantasy Points: 32

Fun Fact: Willie Mays is more likeable than Barry Bonds. Mays is also more likeable than Adolf Hitler and George W. Bush (yes, I just put Willie Mays, George Bush and Adolf Hitler in the same sentence). Willie Mays is not more likeable than small bunny rabbits.

Rocky Colavito (6-10-1959)
4-for-4, 4 HR, BB, 6 RBI, 5 runs
Fantasy Points: 32

Fun Fact: Rocky Colavito had absolutely no role in the movie “Braveheart.” (You thought I was going to type “Rocky” there, didn’t you?)

Tuesday Round-up

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 runs, BB, SB
Russell Martin – 3-for-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 runs, BB, SB
Hanley Ramirez – 2-for-4, HR, 5 RBI, run
Matt Cain – W, 8 IP, 2H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
Aaron Cook – W, 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 4 K
Matt Garza – W, 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 K

Wednesday Match-up of the Day

Halos vs Roid Needles

About Last Night…
The Halos saw every one of its active pitchers throw last night – and only netted 25.5 points. Fortunately, a 22 point night from Russell Martin and 13 point nights from Brian Roberts and David Wright pulled the Halos to within 11 points heading into Wednesday.

The Dramatic Setup Told Undramatically*
The Halos will throw out four pitchers on Wednesday – Ubaldo Jimenez, C.C. Sabathia, Daniel Cabrera and Daisuke Matsuzaka – while CRN will counter with nothing. The Halos have an opportunity to blow open a huge lead or sink into oblivion with a few bad starts.

A Fun, Yet Ultimately Meaningless Matchup to Watch
A.J. Pierzynski vs C.C. Sabathia

Pierzynski has the sad honor of being the CRN starting catcher and will be facing Sabathia tonight. Pierzynski is a career .150 hitter (3-for-20 in 20 PA) with a double, RBI and 5 strikeouts versus Sabathia. I give the advantage to Sabathia on this one.

*”Undramatically” is not a word. Don’t use it.

Hottest Catchers and A Couple of Questions

2008-07-01T21:35:00.000-05:00

Top 10 Hottest Catchers (As of July 1)
(P15 = Points in Last 15 days)

10) Jason LaRue FA
P15 = 38

Sadly, this is not a joke. Ugh.

9) Geovany Soto INOC
P15 = 39

Turning into a keeper prospect???

8) Gregg Zaun FA
P15 = 40

It always surprises me when I see his name as an active player. I swear he retired three years ago.

7) Dioner Navarro
P15 = 41

The hot Rays have a semi-hot catcher. ESPN has an unnatural obsession for the Rays.

6) Ramon Hernandez FA
P15 = 42

The Baltimore catcher has two home runs and five runs batted in over his last five games.

5) Ivan Rodriguez
P15 = 42

Pudge is rising from the ashes along with the rest of the Tigers.

4) Jason Kendall FA
P15 = 44

Wasn’t Kendall DFA’d by the Athletics last year? Now he’s batting .273 in regular action with the Brewers – proving once and for all that the National League sucks.

3) Kurt Suzuki FA
P15 = 53

The firing of the entire Seattle organization (overstatement) has lit a fire in Suzuki – who desperately needed SOMETHING to be lit.

2) Russell Martin
P15 = 55

At the time I am writing this, Russell Martin has 22 point game going, which would bump him to number one.

1) Joe Mauer
P15 = 65

Mauer is part of a surging Twins team making Royals fans wonder, “Why can’t we win in a small market???”

***

What are your thoughts on having a Utility player position next year?

What are your thoughts on having the consolation bracket at the end of the season determining the draft order? (Winner gets first pick, second place gets second pick, etc.)

Walter Johnson, Round-up and a preview

2008-07-01T13:00:00.000-05:00

Today, I begin a segment intended to run frequently, but will probably only be done two or three more times – Greatest Fantasy Seasons of the Past.

Walter Johnson’s 1913 season is on deck today. In 1913, Johnson won his first of two MVP awards at the age of 25. Johnson had an ERA of 1.14 and a WHIP of 0.780 that season and had an ERA+ of 259, the sixth highest single season ERA+ of all time. Here are his fantasy numbers from that season (keep in mind they did not record quality starts or blown saves at that time).

W – 36 (360)
L – 7 (-70)
ER – 44 (-132)
BB – 38 (-57)
K – 243 (729)
SHO – 11 (165)
SV – 1 (5)
H – 232 (-232)
IP – 346 (519)
HBP – 9 (-9)
QS – n/a
BS – n/a

This brings the total to 1278 fantasy points. Not too shabby. Tim Lincecum is leading all fantasy pitchers this season with 411 points, well behind the pace set by Johnson in 1913.

Monday Round-up

Roy Halladay – W, 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Greg Smith – W, 9 IP, 4 H, ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Kyle Lohse – W, 7 IP, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Mark DeRosa – 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 runs, 6 RBI
Josh Willingham – 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 runs, 3 RBI
Nick Swisher – 2-for-4, 2 runs, 5 RBI
Edgar Gonzalez – 4-for-5, 2 HR, 3 runs, 3 RBI

Tuesday Preview

The Inoculators with try to chip away at the Cockies early 52.5 point lead by starting four pitchers – Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Matt Garza and Todd Wellemeyer. The Cockies will counter with Jesse Litsch. Joel built his lead on the power of a 12 point performance from Troy Glaus and 30 points from Gavin Floyd.

The Phantom Menaces hope to put away the Dynamite early with starts from Cliff Lee and Scott Baker. Dynamite is hoping a full starting lineup and a couple of saves from Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito will put him back in the matchup.

KC and the Smurfs are separated by just one point after one day. KC will throw out Jeff Suppan while the Smurf are hoping Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi rough up Kevin Millwood.

Wins from Greg Smith and Francisco Cordero, plus a save from Joakim Soria, gave the Roid Needles and early lead over the division leading Halos. The Halos will counter with three starters, including rookie stud Edinson Volquez. CRN will counter with Ervin Santana.

The opportunity for a huge day one lead was derailed by a terrible Brian Fuentes outing (.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, Loss, -29.5 fantasy point). Roy Oswalt had a 40 point game for the Zou but left after six innings with a hip injury. Erik will send out five starters – Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Clayton Kershaw, Wandy Rodriguez and Luke Hochevar – Tuesday in hopes to jump out into a big early lead. The Rasmi will counter with Tim Wakefield.

Week Preview plus HOT/cold

2008-06-30T17:24:00.000-05:00

Week Preview

Phantom Menaces – Coming off a loss to the Zou, PM takes on an inferior oppontent in the Dynamite. Good timing, given Chase Utley is day-to-day this week.

The Zou – After a HUGE win over the Menaces, the Zou should get win number 10 this week versus the Rasmi. The return of Curtis Granderson and pitching from Chad Billingsley has been key for the Zou lately.

Hancock’s Halos – A narrow win is a narrow win (even though he won by, like, 100 points). The recent dominance of C.C. Sabathia is keeping the Halos on top of the Losers division.

Cockies - An unfortunately loss to the Halos gives the Cockies an uphill battle from here on out. Justin Duchscherer and Dustin Pedroia are keeping him in the fight for the division and a playoff berth.

Roid Needles – The steroids are starting to catch up with the Needles as they have lost three in a row after a five week winning streak. No help seems to be in sight as The Zou and Halos are his next two opponents.

Inoculators – The Inoculators have a chance to get back to .500 and a the playoff race with a win over the Cockies. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin have combined for almost 200 points in the last two weeks.

Smurfs – Eight straight losses have doomed the Smurfs, who are now looking towards next season. On the bright side, Jonathan Sanchez has been a nice pick up for him.

KC – KC is going to need a huge second half if he is going to sneak into the playoffs. Ian Kinsler certainly isn’t hurting him, scoring 107 fantasy points over the last two weeks. After a hot start, Lance Berkman is starting to cool off a little.

Rasmi –John Lackey has produced 119 points in his last three starts, making the Rasmi a formidable opponent despite the 4-9 record.

Dynamite – A report in the New York Times suggests the Dynamite’s struggles are directly related to their name. A little change can go a long way.

HOT/cold

Hot
Halos – Three straight wins is the leagues longest active winning streak.
Carlos Delgado – Three home runs, 10 RBI (nine in one game) in the last week.
Evan Longoria – Three home runs, 10 RBI and 7 runs scored last week.
A.J. Burnett – 2-0, 18 K in 15 innings pitched last week.
Jonathan Papelbon – 3 saves, 4 K and zero hits in 2.2 innings last week.

Cold
Smurfs – Eight straight losses.
Paul Byrd – 0-3, 22 hits, 13 ER in 17 innings in the last two weeks.
Bronson Arroyo – 1-2, 17 ER, 23 hits in 13.1 innings the last two weeks, including 10 ER in one inning.
Jack Cust – 4-for-22, 11 K and 2 XBH last week.
Manny Ramirez – 5-for-23, 9 K, 2 XBH and one team personnel assaulted last week.
Prince Fielder – 1-for-24, 7 K, 0 XBH last week.